Powertrain Evolution and Electrification

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1 Powertrain Evolution and Electrification Improvement of Combustion-engine powertrains, and future alternatives Presentation at CII 14 th Technology Summit and Technology Platform 2008 Trevor Downes Executive Vice-President, Ricardo India Private Limited 6 th December

2 2 The transition to a sustainable energy economy is probably the greatest collective challenge we have ever faced. The problem is a long term one but the transition is already underway... Global Warming Air Quality The Keeling Curve Environmental Damage Fossil Fuel Depletion Security of Energy Supply

3 3 Transition to a sustainable energy economy will take a long time, but most countries are adopting low carbon targets for road transport Transition to the Fossil Fuel Economy Newcomen's first Steam Engine for mine drainage, UK Rainhill Trial for first steam railway locomotive, UK Last sailing ships transport wheat from Australia to Europe 226 years g/km NEDC Equivalent CO NEDC-Equivalent CO2 Fed Vote 150 CA Car Australia Japan 100 China Car Canada Car EU EU Actual Trend Source: Ricardo Analysis Now (Europe) 1.6% PA Legislative Plans 3-4% PA

4 4 Conventional powertrain technology can continue to offer improvements to the next decade and beyond Clean Diesel engines offer 20%+ fuel economy improvement over a conventional Gasoline; down-sizing via advanced turbocharging technology offers perhaps 10-20% more improvement New Gasoline engine technologies will however close the gap with Diesel, and cost less to make - for example Ricardo s Lean Boost system offers near-diesel economy at 80% of the unit engine cost Efficient automated transmissions can offer up to 5% benefit over a Manual, can enable down-sized engines to be more driveable, and are attractive to customers on our more congested roads Advanced control technology allows the vehicle to operate as an integrated whole, and ultimately be more efficient by knowing what lies ahead -via GPS / map or telematics information Hybrid Powertrains are the next major step, offering up to 50% reduction on today's fuel consumption, and providing a stepping stone to Fuel Cell & Plug-in systems

5 5 Hybrids combine enhanced power storage and generation with flexible traction, usually both combustion and electric motors ~ Yes Maybe ICE Stop Start Regeneration ICE Torque Boost No d IC Engine EV Mode E-traction Only IC Engine Generator Deleted IC Engine Fuel Saving Best For Micro Hybrid Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Range Extended EV ~ ~ Electric Vehicle 3-20% 20-35% 30-50% Power Source Dependant esp in city 50% of saving from downsizing Urban delivery vans Family cars (G/D) Premium Cars Small city cars Small city cars Gasoline city cars Mixed Duty Cycle Tend to urban duty low extra-urban dury urban only On Sale M&M Bolero Honda Civic IMA Toyota Prius None Reva BMW 1 & 3 Series Saturn Vue Ford Escape Th!nk INCREASING HYBRIDISATION / ELECTRICIFICATION

6 Hybrid Systems perform best in congested traffic. Where higher speeds feature (as in EU), Diesel Hybrid is best - but expensive Fuel Economy Improvement Relative to Conventional Gasoline Engine better Full hybrid with diesel engine Mild hybrid with petrol engine Source: Schommers, DaimlerChrysler + GM, Aachen Oct 05 + Ricardo Internal Data Conventional diesel engine Full hybrid with petrol engine City Traffic (congested) City Traffic (flowing) Urban / Motorway Speed Time Time Time RD.08/######.# 6

7 7 The highly evolved Hybrid sets a challenging benchmark for the Fuel Cell and the Hydrogen Economy Today's Benchmark H 2 &FC Technology 2020 Benchmark Fuel Diesel Hydrogen BioDiesel Driving Range km 400km 1000km Well-to-Wheel CO2 160g/km 150g/km (fossil) 82g/km (potential) 0g/km (renewable) 80g/km (30% Bio) Pollutants Euro 4 Zero Euro 7 Vehicle on-cost Baseline + 5,000-10, ,000-5,000 FC car cost estimate based on circa 75/kW Some technology developers are suggesting that a PEM stack cost can be reduced to 10/kW by , but this relies on technology that is not yet proven; plus issue of H 2 tank cost

8 8 The Powertrain roadmap shows improved conventional technologies supplemented by Hybridisation and blended Biofuels - then, maybe, the emergence of a Hydrogen economy Dieselisation - Europe Clean Diesel (Gasoline NOx) Dieselisation - North America / RoW First Generation Improved Gasoline Second Generation Improved Gasoline Image Hybrids 2005 Improving efficiency of conventional transmissions New generation transmissions - DCT, quick-shift AMT, CVT Mainstream Micro / Mild Hybrids Performance Full Hybrids Mainstream Full Hybrids Niche Alternative Fuels - LPG, NG E85 Bi-fuel vehicles Biofuel Blends (Increasing %age in std fuel) GTL etc added to blends Fossil Hydrogen for Pilot Communities Fuel Cells as APUs Plug-in Hybrids Sustainable / CCS / Nuclear Hydrogen Hydrogen Fuel Cell and ICE Hybrids? 2025

9 9 Ricardo is a long standing technology provider, traditionally specialising in automotive, and diversifying into Clean Tech Corporate, business unit and product strategy Powertrain, vehicle and systems integration engineering Research Advanced programmes MY programmes and post SOP support Niche manufacture

10 Thank you Questions?

11 11 Supplimentary Information Powertrains will evolve through ICE downsizing, electrification and energy management European CO2 emissions legislation Proposal Battery technology likely to move to Li-Ion, but energy density still low compared with fossil fuels Plug in hybrids Powertrain improvements for fuel economy most relevant to transient usage. Highway usage requires more innovation Evolution of technologies in market place rather than revolution

12 Powertrains will evolve through downsizing of combustion engine, electrification and energy management Diesel/ Gasoline d Engine Exhaust Heat Energy Recovery Fuel Fuel Fuel Battery Transmission Power Electronics High Voltage Motor/ Battery Minimised Combustion Engine Plug-in Ext.Charge Today ? ICE Swept Volume (litres) Engine Power (kw) Electric Power (kw) Battery Capacity (kw.h) Electric Only Range (km) * Assumes Plug-in electric power use only RD.08/######.# 12

13 13 European Union representatives have reached agreement on binding CO2 limits for passenger cars Proposal to be approved by EU Environment Council meeting on 4-5 December Approval by European Parliament (debate and vote) on December Long term target of 95g/km CO2 for new car fleet by % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Percentage of Cars Expected to Meet 120g/km Fleet Average in Europe 65% 75% 80% 100% Euros per car Proposed Fines for Non Compliance With European Fleet CO2 Average g/km CO

14 Energy storage for Hybrid systems NiMH challenged by new Li-Ion chemistries but still 100x lower energy density than gasoline NiMH Nickel Metal Hydride widespread in current hybrids tolerant to overcharge SOC estimation difficult Energy Storage Device Energy Density Power Density Li-Ion Lithium Ion Highest energy and power density Cost challenge Ni-MH equivalent by 2009? Management at individual cell level low overcharge tolerance and catastrophic failure Wh/kg kw/kg Lithium Ion < NiMH < Zebra ~90 ~0.2 Bipolar Lead Acid 30 Super Capacitors 5 <5 Lithium Ion Polymer 100 to Cr-F-Li ~ 0.7 Power density W/kg HEV Flywheel 140 Air at 20 bar 75 H2 33,500 Gasoline 12,000 Energy Density Wh/kg RD.08/######.# EV Ultracap NiMH Pb Acid Lithium Gasoline 14

15 15 Plug-in hybrids show large potential though high battery costs are currently limiting their financial feasibly Plug-in hybrids are any type of Hybrid which can be re-charged from grid Plug-in hybrids offer reduced CO2 when operated on low carbon electricity (e.g. coal with carbon sequestration, renewable or nuclear) Significant plug-in interest in the US Potential to reduce dependence on imported oil/petroleum products Electricity supply from domestic fuel sources Batteries charged using off-peak electricity Battery sized for range of miles (15-60 km) - gasoline fuel for longer distances Key hurdle is is energy storage technology Cost: Currently up to ~$20k US for battery Size: Limited package space in pass cars Durability: Replacement cost major issue Current Battery Cost Estimate (000s USD) 500 $/kwh 800 $/kwh Mile, 80% DOD Mile, 50% DOD Mile, 80% DOD Mile, 50% DOD Note: battery cost is a contentious subject, driven by differing views on materials costs, rate of technical improvement, permissible depth of discharge (DOD), range, etc.

16 16 Engine technologies to improve fuel economy generally more applicable to city/urban driving highway improvements need more innovative solutions.. City Traffic (congested) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Fuel Economy Improvement / CO2 Reduction (Indicative) Speed Stop/Start 20% VGC/T 40% Seq 2 Turbo 20% Mild Hybrid 40% Full Hybrid Time City Traffic (flowing) Speed Time Stop/Start 20% VGC/T 40% Seq 2 Turbo 20% Mild Hybrid 40% Full Hybrid Speed Urban / Motorway Time Stop/Start 20% VGC/T 40% Seq 2 Turbo 20% Mild Hybrid 40% Full Hybrid Turbo Compound Split Cycle?

17 17 Industry and consumers tend to favour risk-managed evolution. Small steps tend to be most cost effective for mass markets, giving incremental improvements applied to a large quantity of product COST: Extra unit cost, cost of change Existing Technology: e.g. Car Dieselisation, Home Insulation New Energy Technology: Sustainable Electricity & Hydrogen, Fuel Cells Advanced Technology: Hybrid vehicles, Combined Heat & Power stations, Biofuels blended into fossil Today's market will only pay a certain price per unit benefit Costlier and riskier technologies only enter the mass market once the driver becomes strong enough If each is a small step from the last, cost and risk are minimised BENEFIT: Energy Security, Environment, Sustainability