LAMPIRAN 1. Tabel 1. Data Indeks Harga Saham PT. ANTAM, tbk Periode 20 Januari Februari 2012

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2 LAMPIRAN 1 Tabel 1. Data Indeks Harga Saham PT. ANTAM, tbk Periode 20 Januari Februari 2012 No Tanggal Indeks Harga Saham No Tanggal Indeks Harga Saham 1 20-Jan Agst Jan Agst Jan Agst Jan Agst Jan Agst Jan Agst Jan Agst Jan Agst Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept

3 No Tanggal Indeks Harga Saham No Tanggal Indeks Harga Saham Mar Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Mar Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov Apr Nov

4 No Tanggal Indeks Harga Saham No Tanggal Indeks Harga Saham Apr Nov Mei Nov Mei Nov Mei Nov Mei Nov Mei Nov Mei Nov Mei Nov Mei Nov Mei Nov Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Mei Des Jun Des Jun Des Jun Des Jun Des Jun Des Jun Des Jun Des Jun Des Jun Des Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan

5 No Tanggal Indeks Harga Saham No Tanggal Indeks Harga Saham Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Jul Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb Agst Feb

6 LAMPIRAN 2 Tabel 2. Data Differencing Tingkat Dua Indeks Harga Saham PT. ANTAM, tbk Periode 20 Januari Februari 2012 No Differencing Tingkat Dua N o Differencing Tingkat Dua No Differencing Tingkat Dua No Differencing Tingkat Dua

7 No Differencing Tingkat Dua No Differencing Tingkat Dua No Differencing Tingkat Dua No Differencing Tingkat Dua

8 LAMPIRAN 3 Tabel 3. Estimasi Parameter Model MA(1) Dependent Variable: SAHAM Method: Least Squares Date: 04/23/12 Time: 07:53 Sample(adjusted): Included observations: 272 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 12 iterations Backcast: 0 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 2.16E E MA(1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted MA Roots.99

9 LAMPIRAN 4 Tabel 4. Statistik Ljung Box-Pierce dari Model MA (1) Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic Lag Chi-Square DF P-Value

10 LAMPIRAN 5 Tabel 5. Uji Lagrange Multiplier ARCH Test: F-statistic Probability Obs*R-squared Probability Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 04/23/12 Time: 07:49 Sample(adjusted): Included observations: 271 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C RESID^2(-1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

11 LAMPIRAN 6 Tabel 6. Hasil Estimasi Parameter Model GARCH (1,1) dengan Persamaan Mean MA(1) Dependent Variable: SAHAM Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) Date: 04/26/12 Time: 07:29 Sample(adjusted): Included observations: 269 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 38 iterations MA backcast: 0, Variance backcast: ON Coefficient Std. Error z-statistic Prob. C 4.59E E MA(1) Variance Equation C 4.95E E ARCH(1) GARCH(1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted MA Roots.99

12 LAMPIRAN 7 Tabel 7. Hasil Estimasi Parameter Model GARCH (2,1) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Dependent Variable: SAHAM Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) Date: 04/26/12 Time: 07:30 Sample(adjusted): Included observations: 269 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 31 iterations MA backcast: 0, Variance backcast: ON Coefficient Std. Error z-statistic Prob. C 5.43E E MA(1) Variance Equation C 2.23E E ARCH(1) ARCH(2) GARCH(1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted MA Roots.99

13 LAMPIRAN 8 Tabel 8. ACF dan PACF dari Residual Kuadrat Model GARCH (1,1) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Date: 06/11/12 Time: 23:39 Sample: Included observations: 272 Q-statistic probabilities adjusted for 1 ARMA term(s) Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob. *. * *. * *. * *. * *. *

14 LAMPIRAN 9 Tabel 9. ACF dan PACF dari Residual Kuadrat Model GARCH (2,1) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Date: 06/11/12 Time: 23:39 Sample: Included observations: 272 Q-statistic probabilities adjusted for 1 ARMA term(s) Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob *. * *. * *. *

15 LAMPIRAN 10 Tabel 10. Hasil Uji Efek Asimetrik Date: 04/23/12 Time: 08:15 Sample: Included observations: 271 Correlations are asymptotically consistent approximations LAG_STANDAR_RESID, STANDAR_RESID_KUA DRAT(-i) LAG_STANDAR_RESID, STANDAR_RESID_KUA DRAT(+i) i lag Lead. *********. ********* ****. ***** * *. * * * * * *. * * * *. * *. * *

16 LAMPIRAN 11 Tabel 11. Hasil Estimasi Parameter Model EGARCH (1,1) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Dependent Variable: SAHAM Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) Date: 04/26/12 Time: 07:31 Sample(adjusted): Included observations: 269 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 108 iterations MA backcast: 0, Variance backcast: ON Coefficient Std. Error z-statistic Prob. C 3.29E E MA(1) Variance Equation C RES /SQR[GARCH]( ) RES/SQR[GARCH]( ) EGARCH(1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted MA Roots.99

17 LAMPIRAN 12 Tabel 12. Hasil Estimasi Parameter Model EGARCH (2,1) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Dependent Variable: SAHAM Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) Date: 04/26/12 Time: 07:32 Sample(adjusted): Included observations: 269 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 152 iterations MA backcast: 0, Variance backcast: ON Coefficient Std. Error z-statistic Prob. C 2.96E E MA(1) Variance Equation C RES /SQR[GARCH]( ) RES/SQR[GARCH]( ) RES /SQR[GARCH]( ) RES/SQR[GARCH]( ) EGARCH(1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted MA Roots.99

18 LAMPIRAN 13 Tabel 13. Hasil Estimasi Parameter Model EGARCH (2,2) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Dependent Variable: SAHAM Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) Date: 04/26/12 Time: 07:33 Sample(adjusted): Included observations: 269 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 65 iterations MA backcast: 0, Variance backcast: ON Coefficient Std. Error z-statistic Prob. C 3.03E E MA(1) Variance Equation C RES /SQR[GARCH](1) RES/SQR[GARCH](1) RES /SQR[GARCH](2) RES/SQR[GARCH](2) EGARCH(1) EGARCH(2) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic) Inverted MA Roots.99

19 LAMPIRAN 14 Tabel 14. ACF dan PACF dari Residual Kuadrat Model EGARCH (1,1) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Date: 04/23/12 Time: 08:41 Sample: Included observations: 272 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob *. * *. * * *. * * *. * *. * *

20 LAMPIRAN 15 Tabel 15. ACF dan PACF dari Residual Kuadrat Model EGARCH (2,1) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Date: 06/11/12 Time: 23:42 Sample: Included observations: 272 Q-statistic probabilities adjusted for 1 ARMA term(s) Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob *. * *. *

21 LAMPIRAN 16 Tabel 16. ACF dan PACF dari Residual Kuadrat Model EGARCH (2,2) dengan Persamaan Mean MA (1) Date: 06/11/12 Time: 23:43 Sample: Included observations: 272 Q-statistic probabilities adjusted for 1 ARMA term(s) Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob. *. * *. * *. * *. ** * *. *

22 LAMPIRAN 17 Tabel 17. Perhitungan Nilai Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) Tanggal 1 Maret ,920 1, , , , Maret ,940 1, , , , Maret ,930 1, , , , Maret ,930 1, , , , Maret ,950 1, , , , , ,040621