2017 SWOMA Conference Region 4 ESC Houston, TX October 20-21, 2017 Driverless Vehicles: Impact on O&M

Transcription

1 Figure 1, SWOMA 2017 Logo showing a stick figure women with a cane, stick figure man with a dog guide, a compass with braille letters N, S, E, W, and Conference title of "Exploring Changing Times" 2017 SWOMA Conference Region 4 ESC Houston, TX October 20-21, 2017 Driverless Vehicles: Impact on O&M Presented by, Scott Meyer, COMS Texas Workforce Commission Criss Cole Rehabilitation Center scott.meyer@twc.state.tx.us

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3 Driverless Vehicles: Impact on O&M Scott Meyer- TWC- CCRC SWOMA October 2017 Will self-driving cars replace O&M Specialists? Will dog guides be replaced by robots? Will the increase of pedestrian zones affect O&M jobs? Barriers to Employment: Lessons from the Blind (not the only people who cannot drive) Reasons why people do not drive: Blindness Psychological (elderly, PTSD, severe stress) Certain Physical Disability License suspended Environmental Seizures Cannot afford to drive Meeting Life s Challenges without a vehicle and trying to work Current Modes of Transportation: buses, paratransit, taxis, ride share, rides from friends & family Time Management Trying to meet all travel needs each day with a job: kids, daycare, hospital/ doctor, school 1

4 2016 Maximum Monthly Earnings before Losing Portions SSI and SSDI Any Income Reduces SSI $1,130 SSDI $1,820 SSDI if Blind Examples of Self-Driving Car Concepts (Google, Apple, Chevrolet, Nissan, Mercedes) Society of Automotive Engineers Table of Levels (0-5) 2

5 Level 0: 1768: Steam Powered 1807: Hydrogen Powered (Internal Combustion Engine) 1886: Gas Powered Karl Benz 1908: Henry Ford Mass Production Level 1: 1945: Cruise Control 1987: Electronic Stability Control (antilock brakes; better traction) Level 2: 2004: Lane Assist in North America 2016: Numerous Car Manufacturers have cars that can follow other cars in traffic jams and even some can do some highway driving (accelerating, braking & steering) Level 3: : Numerous car manufacturers will have cars that can do highway driving in controlled conditions similar to Tesla today but better; definitely emergency braking where car takes over if needing to brake (this existed in 2016 in some vehicles). Level 4: : Numerous car manufacturers will have cars that do most of the driving. There will even be cars without steering wheels and brakes that are used in certain environment and most likely ride sharing companies will have self-driving cars in certain environments (Uber, Google, etc.). Tesla, Google, Uber and perhaps others will technically reach Level 4 in 2018 but may be gimmicky. 3

6 Level 5: Not Before 2022: While blind people in the right area may be using self-driving cars through ride sharing or perhaps owning a self-driving car. So much makes it sound like people who cannot drive will get self-driving cars by 2022 but actually it is mostly Level 4 getting confused with Level 5. It is a big jump for car manufacturers to state their vehicles are 100% self-driving and no human is ever needed in all environments (night, bad weather, through construction zones, areas off the beaten path) : I believe non-drivers will be able to get a car : I believe more and more cars will be self-driving : I believe human driving cars will be phased off the road : I believe human driving becomes illegal and perhaps much sooner in other countries. V2V Vehicle to Vehicle Technology: the dynamic wireless exchange of data between active moving vehicles. U.S. DOT may require all new vehicles to have V2V by While this can be implemented easier than automated vehicles it is unclear on a timeline of how it will affect efficiency and safety of driving Benefits of V2V Connectivity where cars are linked to travel very close together Efficiency as less space is used Better for the environment as less gas is used when connected Safer as vehicles are talking to each other about what they are doing Radical efficiency someday perhaps no traffic lights 4

7 NACTO-National Association of City Traffic Officials Vision Zero is a multi-national traffic safety project that aims to achieve no fatalities or serious injuries. It was started in Sweden and approved by their parliament in October It has evolved to a heavy focus on pedestrian and bicycle traffic. 10 Focus Cities that will model Vision Zero in the United States: Austin Boston Chicago Fort Lauderdale Los Angeles New York City Portland San Francisco Seattle Washington Book: Start-up City: Inspiring Private and Public Entrepreneurship, Getting Projects Done and Having Fun by Gabe Klein with David Vega- Barachowitz (Foreword by Robin Chase) Future Designs of Cities and Roads: Understanding the implications of autonomous, connected mobility, what it means for cities, and how governments can make sure they are driving change, rather than reacting to it p

8 OWNING VS SHARING In the United States we have 300 million people and 250 million vehicles. In China they have 1.3 billion people and 100 million vehicles Vehicles today are only in use approximately 5 percent of the time. The rest of the day they take up valuable space that could be put towards other public uses. P. 198 The most significant opportunity for a future of driverless vehicles beyond pure safety, at least from the progressive urbanist s point of view, is that cities will have the opportunity to reclaim a lot of land currently devoted to automobiles and their storage. p. 196 Sixty percent of Los Angeles is devoted to private parking lots, and many other cities are in the percent range. p. 197 Just as the advent of motorization precipitated a complete reshaping of the city in the early twentieth century, the self- driving car s introduction in cities will be punctuated with moments of painful transition. p. 182 June 2016 the driver of a self-driving Tesla S was killed: The crash occurred on a Florida highway when an 18-wheel tractortrailer made a left turn in front of a 2015 Tesla Model S that was in Autopilot mode and the car failed to apply the brakes The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) which is investigating said in a preliminary report. Neither Autopilot nor the driver noticed the white side of the tractor-trailer against a brightly lit sky, so the brake was not applied, according to a statement Tesla issued. Tesla says Autopilot is disabled by default and before they engage the feature, drivers are cautioned that the technology is still in the testing phase. Drivers are also warned that Autopilot is an assist feature that requires you to keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times, the company says. 6

9 Trolley Problem: thought experiment in ethics There is a runaway trolley barreling down the tracks. Your options: Do nothing, and the trolley kills the five people on the main track. Pull the lever, diverting the trolley onto the side track where it will kill one person. Which is the most ethical choice? Podcast: RadioLab, Episode: Driverless Dilemma Sept. 26, 2017 CURRENT COLLABORATIONS & CONFERENCES ITS World Conference (ITS = Intelligent Transportation System) Montreal October 29, 2017 PARTNERSHIPS between manufacturer + tech Lyft + GM + Cruise Automation Google + Fiat Chrysler + Alphabet s Waymo & Avis rental cars Uber + Volvo + Nvidia & Autoliv Mobileye + Delphi + Intel Ford + Saips Apple + Hertz (Apple laid-off dozens of employees from their selfdriving car project. They have shifted focus on self-driving software instead of building their own car. They are leasing a fleet of Lexus SUVs from Hertz to test their technology.) Transportation.gov List of 10 Proving Ground Designees including (Texas AV Proving Grounds Partnership) 7

10 UBER pilot program in Pittsburgh Uber launched a pilot program of autonomous vehicles in Pittsburgh in September The first fleet includes 100 modified Volvo XC90 sport utility vehicles, which come equipped with an Uber driver and an engineer in the front two seats who intervene occasionally. April 2017, Waymo by Google introduced using volunteer families in an Early Rider Program in Phoenix, AZ using Chrysler Pacifica vans. Dubai Passenger Drone Taxi (YouTube Video) 14 MILLION DRIVING JOBS IN THE UNITED STATES (UPS, Mail, Truck Drivers, Garbage, Construction, Taxis, Limo s, Uber, Lyft, City Buses, Greyhound, Amtrak, etc.) Automated truck convoy: Uber plans to open an 180,000-square-foot facility in Palo Alto, Calif., to house Otto, which will operate as a standalone company focused specifically on the long- distance trucking industry. Otto engineers will also work out of offices in San Francisco and Pittsburgh. New jobs of tomorrow Current automated systems in place: (Red Box, ATM, grocery kiosks) O&M Equipment: ipad & iphone, GPS, APS, watches (tactile, smart), compass (tactile, smart) 8

11 Robot Tax Protagonists in favor of robot tax: Bill Gates Elon Musk Stephen Hawking *Robot tax should be used to finance a universal basic income or guaranteed living wage Antagonists of robot tax: Andrus Ansip (EU Commissioner) *Barrier to entry; Europe would be left behind. Along with safety, the accessibility of the autonomous vehicle to those with disabilities, the elderly, and even children, has the potential to be an enormously positive step in our society, both in terms of access and equity. p. 199 Q&A and Wrap-Up 9

12 Resources: ITS: ITS [Intelligent Transportation Systems] America: NHTSA: DOT: ic_tagged_508_final.pdf Vox: Podcast: RadioLab, Episode: Driverless Dilemma Sept. 26, 2017 Transportation.gov Dubai Passenger Drone Taxi (YouTube Video) 10

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14 SWOMA Sponsors Region 4 Education Service Center (ESC), Houston Figure 15, Region 4, ESC logo. Texas School for the Blind & Visually Impaired Outreach Programs, Austin, TX Figure 16, TSBVI logo. Figure 17, Two images: IDEAs that Work logo and OSEP disclaimer. 12