Autonomous Driving: The Short Term Impact

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE Autonomous Driving: The Short Term Impact 26 January 2017 Frankfurt, Germany Aaron Dale, Senior Analyst All Rights Reserved.

2 It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change. Charles Darwin 2

3 Agenda Where are we now? Enabling Technologies Component Pricing Market Dynamics 2017? Q&A 3

4 The Big Picture 4

5 5

6 NHTSA + IHS L4/ New Year s Briefing 26 January 2017 So where are we now? L5 L4 L3 L2 No driver controls Autonomous mode with driver controls Limited self-driving automation Combined function automation L1 L0 Single function automation No automation

7 Enabling Technologies 7

8 The autonomous ecosystem comes together Current expertise New frontier 8

9 Developments in autonomy to shape UI 9

10 Human- Centric Inputs Display Applications Display Technologies Speech recognition Rearview e-mirrors Curved displays Gesture recognition Driver monitoring Side view e-mirrors HVAC, passenger, door, etc. AMOLED displays Augmente d reality HUD

11 Facial monitoring world fitment rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Assessing drivers mental state, cognitive load and attention levels will becoming increasingly important. Regionally, Japan is forecast to see the highest fitment rates of facial monitoring, followed by North America Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 11

12 High performance solid-state LIDARs: a key to system cost reduction Typical cost Typical cost 1 Mechanical Scanning LIDAR Basic Flash LIDAR High Resolution Flash LIDAR Solid-state scanning LIDAR 12

13 Wider Change 13

14 Mobility manifesting Automaker sub-brands become the home for new technologies BMW i Mercedes-Benz EQ VW ID concept vehicles Companies establish standalone mobility units Google Waymo GM Maven BMW ReachNow VW Moia Daimler car2go Geely / Volvo Lynk & Co. A C E S Autonomous Connected Electric Shared 14

15 Testing and Pilot schemes Location UK Milton Keynes UK London Gateway project US- Pittsburgh Sweden- Gothenburg Germany Autobahn Initiated by Government Government Uber Volvo BMW, Audi, Mercedes- Benz Adaptation of infrastructure Dedicated autonomous driving lanes Road signals and signs Education of drivers Addressing safety concerns. How to interact with autonomous vehicles 15

16 Market Dynamics 16

17 Strategic partnerships Tech Companies Mapping Companies and Tier one suppliers OEM s Ride hailing, Rental & Car Sharing Companies 17

18 Recent strategic partnerships/acquisitions Uber and Volvo HERE- expanded consortium of ownership Autoliv/Volvo- Zenuity Nvidia/ Multiple OEM s Bosch/TomTom 18

19 Regulation Regulatory activity is already influential, but it becomes one of the most important market forces for ADAS NCAP Voluntary agreements Standards and guidance Sharing economy US NCAP adding 7+ new ADAS in 2018 Euro NCAP continues to move forward on new AEB features Little-to-no activity from other countries US commitment for standard AEB by 2022 Will effectively make AEB standard everywhere in a few years, with rare local model exceptions What is next? ISO ASIL New automated vehicle guidelines expected in US Steady progress on cybersecurity and driver distraction guidance in US Open question everywhere today Even China allowed ride-hailing services in legal grey zone Regulation likely to be defined by the current market Guidance will shape the future of automotive technology, regulatory decisions will affect how the sharing economy evolves

20 2017 Automotive Technology Foresight Autonomy & AI Sensor advances, artificial intelligence, innovative interiors and platform development towards public deployment ACES Creation of further sub brands and further development of standalone mobility units Foresight Electronic Architectures Sensor fusion ECUs and central ADAS domain controllers will to drive further advances in autonomy, reduce cost and save weight New Automotive UX Developments in UI technologies, design, or service models aim to reinvent the automotive UX Collaboration and M&A OEMs acquiring new competencies, more supplier consolidation possible, achieving scale in data and services Disruptors Mobility providers & start-ups push OEMs and suppliers to diversify products and business models

21 Thank you! Aaron Dale Senior Analyst Automotive 3-5 Huxley Close Wellingborough, UK NN8 6AB