Automated Vehicles: Safer but not Perfect. Susan Spencer Senior Associate, Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence

Transcription

1 Automated Vehicles: Safer but not Perfect Susan Spencer Senior Associate, Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence Presentation to the Not By Accident Conference October 18, 2016

2 Agenda Automated Vehicles (AVs) A Brief Primer Status and deployment Benefits & Challenges of AVs Emerging Trends & Impacts What do we need to do to be ready? Conclusions 2

3 CAVCOE 3

4 Agenda Automated Vehicles (AVs) A Brief Primer Status and deployment Benefits & Challenges of AVs Emerging Trends & Impacts What do we need to do to be Ready? Conclusions 4

5 Autonomous Driverless Connected The AV Lingo To the Internet To other vehicles, infrastructure, people/devices Automated 5 Levels of Automation ACE Vehicles Automated, Connected, Electric 5

6 Levels of Automation Source: SAE 6

7 Agenda Automated Vehicles (AVs) A Brief Primer Status and deployment Benefits & Challenges Emerging Trends and Impacts What we need to do to be ready Conclusions 7

8 First Generation of AVs are Here Level 3 (semi-autonomous) Cars: Tesla Model S, Infiniti Q50, Mercedes S-Class Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and braking) Lane-keeping Automatic parking Pedestrian avoidance / automatic braking Level 4/5 (fully autonomous): Special Purpose Vehicles Usually low-speed, controlled environment 8

9 Navya 9

10 EasyMile EZ10 10

11 Trial of RDM s fullyautomated taxis, Milton Keynes, UK 11

12 Uber s Driverless Taxi Now In trials in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania The car has: 20 cameras a top-mounted lidar antennas providing GPS positioning and several lidar and radar modules

13 Suncor: Fully-Automated Heavy Hauler 13

14 AV Rollout Rollout will be incremental - two approaches Most major car manufacturers Add Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) to existing models Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and braking), lane-keeping, pedestrian avoidance, auto parking Then add capability and evolve to Level 5 Technology companies: Google, RDM, Navya Start with low-speed Level 5 Electric, fully-automated, controlled environment Then add speed, capability to drive on public roads 14

15 Timeline and Predictions Now First commercial, semi-autonomous, highway-capable cars First commercial, 2nd generation, fully-automated shuttle bus services 2020 Automakers launch fully autonomous cars 2025 AV usage significant part of total Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKTs) 15

16 Toyota 16

17 Agenda Automated Vehicles (AVs) A Brief Primer Status and deployment AV Benefits & Challenges Emerging Trends & Impacts What do we need to do to be Ready? Conclusions 17

18 Benefits: Fewer Collisions AVs have the potential to be much safer than human drivers 93% of collisions involve driver error Hopefully, we can reduce collisions by 80% Ottawa Citizen 18

19 Crash Proof Cars There is no such thing!!! Tesla & Google All hardware, software fails occasionally 7% of collisions have nothing to do with the driver Will happen whether a human or computer is driving There will be collisions but far fewer! 19

20 BMW s Motorcycle of the Future So Safe, you won t need a helmet 20

21 The Problem with Over-exuberant Manufacturers and the Press! There ll also be no more poor decisions by the rider, because the bike will assess its traction on the road and the amount of lean needed for the next few corners, and will protect the rider from being overzealous. So, no helmet or protective clothing is needed, except for a stylish visor for the eyes; the visor will have all information needed by the rider displayed on its inside surface, activated by eye movement. 21

22 Development Challenges Reversing Extreme weather Work zones Traffic signals AND police officer Road alterations Pedestrian prediction Facial reading Rare events 22

23 Regulatory & Other Challenges Federal regulations re vehicle standards, etc. Provincial / Territorial Highway Traffic Acts Ontario now permits AV testing on public roads Municipal planning for AVs Privacy By Design & Personally Identifiable Information Cybersecurity Liability 23

24 Liability: My car made me do it Key issue: who is liable when an AV is involved in a collision? Product Liability vs. Personal Injury Some car manufacturers likely to offer lifetime liability insurance bundled with the cost of a new car Trend to driverless taxis means: Reduced car ownership Fewer individual policies More commercial / fleet policies 24

25 Agenda Automated Vehicles (AVs) A Brief Primer Status and deployment AV Benefits & Challenges Emerging Trends and Impacts of AVs What do we need to do to be ready? Conclusions 25

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27 Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) Mobility as a service Personalized mass transit Trend away from car ownership To use of fully-automated taxis Merging of regular taxis, car rental and transit business models Significant mode of transportation in future Call one via smartphone Slightly more expensive than premium transit ticket 27

28 GM President Pieces in place to develop ride sharing, autonomous cars Invested $500 million in ride-hailing service Lyft Acquired self-driving vehicle technology start-up Cruise Automation Continued to equip new vehicles with high-speed mobile internet connections GM pretty well positioned" to pursue a strategy of expanding its presence in ride sharing and ride hailing and develop services that use AVs to provide customers with transportation "A ride sharing network is the logical first place to deploy driverless technology" Source: Reuters: June 1,

29 Impact of AVs: US US Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx in Thinking Highways: Widespread adoption of AVs: Five-fold increase in highway capacity Traffic incidents would practically disappear Elderly and people with disabilities will have improved mobility It is up to the public sector, including agencies like USDOT, to begin sorting out [the regulatory and performance standards] issues now. There is no excuse for waiting. 29

30 OECD Report OECD / International Transport Forum report: Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic TaxiBots + high-capacity transit could remove 9 out of 10 cars in a mid-sized European city. Overall volume of car travel will likely increase. Self-driving vehicles could change transit as we currently know it Small and medium sized cities: shared, self-driving vehicles may completely remove the need for traditional transit Significant potential impact of self-driving shared fleets on urban mobility. It will be shaped by policy choices, deployment options. Transit, taxis, urban transport governance must adapt 30

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32 Impacts on Private Sector Auto-Related Industries OEMs, Tier 1 and 2s, Auto insurance Transport Service Providers Parking Taxis, rental cars Trucking: long-haul and local Resource industries Electricity generation, distribution Forest products Oil industry Technology industry 32

33 Direct Employment Displacement Auto related Industries: Auto-body Repair Auto Companies Auto insurance Transport Service Industries Taxi drivers / chauffeurs Tow-truck drivers Bus drivers Courier service drivers Transport truck drivers Driving instructors / trainers Health Care Industries: Trauma surgeons Medical professionals involved in car crash victim rehabilitation Health staff involved with organ and tissue donation Legal/Regulatory Professions Lawyers, staff involved with car collision litigation Road safety professionals Traffic police

34 Impacts on Government All levels / most departments Finance, economy and GDP Health-care Hydro National security Policies on technology, industry, R&D Policing Transit including transit infrastructure Transportation policies and regulations Urban planning, housing 34

35 Urban Governance/Planning Changes in where people live and work More intensification or more sprawl? Change in design of homes Reduced focus on Transit Oriented Development Less pollution + less parking spaces = greener cities AV-only zones Improvements to ranking on liveability index 35

36 Agenda Automated Vehicles (AVs) A Brief Primer Status and deployment Benefits & Challenges of AVs Emerging Trends & Impacts What do we need to do to be ready? Conclusions 36

37 What to do to be Ready 1. Analyze Require AV impact analyses Recognize the Large, Positive Economy-wide Benefits Consult with stakeholders 2. Set a Vision and Objectives for your desired society of the Future 37

38 What to do to be Ready 3. Plan for its Delivery Understand the impacts of AVs on Transportation and Traffic Sectors of the Economy that will be affected Society job displacement/creation Plan for disruption and identify positive opportunities 4. Organize Take a Government Wide Approach Involve stakeholders from private sector & public sector 5. Invest in Smart City Technologies & Demonstrations 38

39 Conclusions AVs are coming soon and will lead to substantial disruption, opportunities and challenges. The changes that will result from AVs in the 21st Century will be as substantial as the impact that cars had on our lives, cities, business, society, and the world in the 20th Century. Our cities and our world will look very different in 2030 compared to today 39

40 Conclusions We need to be planning now to ensure that Canada and Canadians are wellpositioned to maximize the benefits and mitigate the downsides of this exciting and yet challenging technology because AVs are coming quickly whether we re ready or not. 40

41 Follow-up Susan Spencer Latest issue of AV Update, a free monthly newsletter with news on AVs from around the world Subscription link 41

42 Impact on Auto Insurance #1 Safer vehicles: Reduced collisions Smaller payouts Lower premiums Reduced industry revenues It is this safety angle, rather than the wonder of the technology, which preoccupies legendary investor Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. owns insurer GEICO. Anything that makes cars safer is very pro-social, and it s bad for the auto insurance industry Source: Globe and Mail, May 4,

43 Impact on Auto Insurance Smaller market + Fewer consumer policies + Competition from auto makers = Consumer-oriented insurance industry will contract / face disruption Companies will down-size / go out of business 43