The New Age of Automobility Metalforming Industry Implications
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1 The New Age of Automobility Metalforming Industry Implications Automotive Parts Suppliers Conference Precision Metalforming Association Conference Lawrence D. Burns April 26, 2018
2 1886: From Horses to Horsepower Karl Benz Patented First Gasoline Powered Automobile
3 130+ Year Evolution Vehicles Roads Energy Supply Parking Traffic Laws Regulations
4 130+ Year Evolution Vehicles Roads Energy Supply Parking Traffic Laws Regulations Considerable Improvement More Affordable More Useful More Comfortable Safer Cleaner More Efficient
5 130+ Year Evolution Vehicles Roads Energy Supply Parking Traffic Laws Regulations Significant Freedom 1.2 Billion Vehicles Worldwide
6 130+ Year Evolution Vehicles Roads Energy Supply Parking Traffic Laws Regulations Serious Side Effects Safety: 1.3 M fatalities worldwide Energy: 95% dependent on oil Congestion: Traffic delays Parking: Land use, delays, cost Environment: Emissions Infrastructure: Aging and costly
7 130+ Year Evolution Vehicles Roads Energy Supply Parking Traffic Laws Regulations Same DNA Mechanical Drive Combustion Engine Oil-based Fuel Mechanical & Hydraulic Controls Human Operated Stand-Alone Machine General Purpose Vehicle as a Product
8 Technology and Innovation 2007 Dark Years for the Auto Industry 2012 Autonomous Vehicles 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge 2009 Google Self-Driving Cars Electric Vehicles 2008 Tesla Roadster 2012 Tesla Model S Transportation as a Service 2009 Uber 2012 Lyft
9 New Players From Outside The Auto Industry Bone-Deep Understanding of Digital Technology Passion for Designing and Delivering Compelling Experiences
10 New Age of Automobility Transportation as a Service Autonomous Vehicles New Age of Automobility Electric Vehicles
11 Autonomous Vehicles DARPA Urban Challenge
12 Google Self-Driving Cars/Waymo
13 Tipping Point Likely by 2022 Nissan Leaf Chevy Bolt Electric Vehicles Tesla Model S Tesla Model 3 Toyota Mirai (FC) VW ID Crozz Mercedes EQA BYD e6
14 Transportation as a Service People and Goods Shared-Use and Personal Use Long-Haul and Local Infrastructure
15 Transportation as a Service - Vehicles Tailored 80% of U.S. Trips 1-and-2 Person Average City Speeds MPH 70% of Trips < 8 Miles Compelling Experiences The Ultimate Riding Machine Optimized for Cost Per Mile 300,000 Mile Life Electric Designed for Easy Maintenance Fewer Parts and Less Material No Driver Controls Simplicity of Electric Drive Tailored
16 Automobile Business Model Sell Vehicles, Gasoline, Insurance and Financing
17 Vehicle as a Product Do You Enjoy.. Shopping for a car? Financing a car? Insuring a car? Buying and pumping gasoline? Getting a car washed? Maintaining a car? Parking a car? Driving a car? Sitting in traffic?
18 Automobile Business Model Sell Vehicles, Gasoline, Insurance and Financing Transportation as a Service Business Model Sell Miles, Trips and Experiences
19 Transportation as a Service Do You Enjoy.. Shopping for a car? Financing a car? Insuring a car? Buying and pumping gasoline? Getting a car washed? Maintaining a car? Parking a car? Driving a car? Sitting in traffic?
20 Transformational Opportunity Current Age of Automobiles Human Driven Combustion Powered Oil-Based Energy Vehicle as a Product General Purpose Vehicles Attractive Cars & Trucks Designed for Drivers Optimized Vehicle Cost New Age of Automobility Autonomous Electric Diverse Energy Transportation as a Service Tailored Vehicles Compelling Transportation Experiences Designed for Riders Optimized Cost Per Mile
21 New Age of Automobility Autonomous Vehicles + Electric Vehicles + Transportation as a Service Better Transportation Experiences at Radically Lower Consumer and Societal Cost
22 Better Transportation Experiences Safer More Convenient More Productive More Personalized More Affordable Improving All Attributes Simultaneously!
23 Lower Consumer Cost $/Mile Cost/Mile Title $1.00 $2 to $4 Trillion Per Year In U.S. $0.25 Time Cost Money Cost 0 Driver/Personal/Conventional Driverless/Shared/Tailored
24 Lower Societal Cost Fewer Fatalities & Injuries Less Energy Use Less Emissions Less Congestion Better Land Use More Equitable Access Reducing All Side Effects Simultaneously!
25 Attractive Business Opportunity 300,000 Miles/Vehicle X $0.10 Profit/Mile $30,000 Profit/Vehicle Average Net Income Per Vehicle of Major Auto OEMs Ranged from $1000 to $5000 in 2016
26 Attractive Business Opportunity 3 Trillion Miles/Year X 10% Share X $0.10 Profit/Mile $30 Billion Profit/Year $24 B $16 B $16 B $53 B
27 Autonomous Trucks Freightliner Mercedes-Benz Peloton Technology Tesla Waymo
28 Safer Trucking 90% of Crashes Caused by Driver Error Autonomous Trucks Promise Significant Safety Improvement
29 Lower Cost Trucking Cost 2016 $/Mile Autonomous Impact Driver Wage & Benefits 0.64 (40%) Fuel 0.40 (25%) Truck Cab & Trailer 0.23 (15%) Repairs & Maintenance 0.16 (10%) Insurance 0.09 ( 6%) Tires 0.04 ( 2%) Permits/Licenses/Tolls 0.04 ( 2%) Total 1.60 (100%) > 50% Reduction 300 Billion Miles/Year X 50% Cost Reduction = $240 Billion Savings/Year
30 Lower Cost Trucking REMOVE CAB DRIVER CONTROLS GAUGES HVAC ADD SENSORS PROCESSORS REDUNDANT CONTROLLERS SOFTWARE & MAPS The Parts Added Will Likely Cost Less than the Parts Removed
31 Autonomous Electric Power Platform GM s SURUS Concept (Fuel Cell + Battery) Lower Cost, Cleaner Power and More Diverse Energy
32 Higher Trucking Throughput More Efficient Ports, Hubs, Terminals and Road
33 Faster Trucking Service Today Driver restricted to 11 hours of driving per day 550 miles per day at 50 MPH 550 miles 1100 miles Tomorrow Autonomous trucks should exceed 22 hours driving per day 1100 miles per day at 50 MPH Daily Truck Service Area Quadruples
34 Smaller and More Frequent Trucking Shipments Autonomous Driving Lowers Shipment Scale Economies E-Commerce Demands More Frequent Deliveries
35 Trucking s Last Mile Starship Technologies Starsky Robotics Nuro Domino s Pizza Substantial Innovation Drones
36 New Age of Automobility Eliminates Negatives of Automobile Transportation Enables Compelling Mobility Experiences Promises a Sustainable Future Presents Attractive Business Opportunities
37 New Age of Automobility Transportation as a Service Autonomous Vehicles New Age of Automobility Electric Vehicles Will Transform How People and Goods Move Around and Interact
38 New Age of Automobility Automobile Freight Energy Finance Insurance Retail Infrastructure Transportation Services Real Estate Disrupts the Entire Transportation Eco-System
39 When? Now
40 Waymo Our ultimate goal is to provide a self-driving vehicle tailored to every trip and to every purpose. We can do this because we are building the driver. This same driver can be adapted for all kinds of vehicles. John Krafcik, Waymo CEO (March 2018) Driverless Service in Arizona 20,000 Jaguar I-Paces for Driverless Deployment Driverless Truck Testing in Georgia Honda Collaboration on Tailored Vehicle
41 My Perspective Technology + Customer Value + Business Opportunity + Scalability Could be Proven Within Three Years Impacted Businesses Should be Preparing Now for this Likely Tipping Point
42 Implications for the Metalforming Industry
43 Vehicles in the New Age of Automobility
44 New Age of Automobility Autonomous + Electric + Transportation as a Service Tailored Designs + Optimized Cost Per Mile + Compelling Experiences Longer Life + More Efficient + Easier Maintenance + Lower Mass + More Comfort Fewer Vehicles + Fewer Parts + Less Material + Less Styling Differentiation Metalforming Industry Could be Impacted Significantly!
45 Deeply Understand What Is Possible New Technology New Business Models New Opportunities New Threats Especially with Digital Technology and Customer Experiences
46 Position for the Future Think Big Start Small Learn Fast Scale Smart You Don t Need to Bet the Farm You Do Need to Know How to Play Your Hand
47 Target Market Tipping Point Customer Value > Market Price > Suppler Cost Technology Must Work Value Must Exist Regulators Must Allow Society Must Accept
48 Get in Front of the Inevitable Tipping Point Timing Sooner Later Position for Sooner Prepared Prepared Early Position for Later Left Behind Prepared
49 Stay in the Game! Sustain Operational Excellence Be Resourceful
50 Keys to Success Design innovation to ensure compelling customer experiences
51 Design Innovation Use Ingenuity to Create Compelling Customer Experiences Focus on the Total Experience Eliminate Negatives Make Positives More Compelling
52 Keys to Success Design innovation to ensure compelling customer experiences Operational excellence to deliver consistently positive customer experiences
53 Operational Excellence Proven Best Practices Design for Manufacturability Lean Manufacturing Global Sourcing Supply Chain Management Quality/Reliability/Durability Processes Customer Relationship Management New Opportunities Big data and advanced analytics Advanced robotics Virtual design and engineering Low-Cost Sensors and Actuators Remote Diagnostics & Prognostic Innovative Work Systems Fundamental to Making Value
54 Keys to Success Design innovation to ensure compelling customer experiences Operational excellence to deliver consistently positive customer experiences Technology innovation to further enhance customer experiences
55 Technology Innovation + Information + Communications + Robotics + Processes + Materials + Work Systems + Analytics + Energy
56 The New Age of Automobility Much to Learn A Lot to Prove Issues to Resolve
57 Enjoy the Ride!
58 New Book HarperCollins Publishers August, 2018 QUEST
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