Overview. Solar Markets Worldwide today and tomorrow. PV module production worldwide. Market development Outlook (EPIA 12/2007)

Transcription

1 Solar Markets Worldwide today and tomorrow Overview The world PV market yesterday and today First German Conference Solar Energy in Korea NH Hotel, Munich-Dornach, June, 11th 8 in Munich, Germany Financial engineering with rate-based incentives Development of PV 199 : Cost and Performance How can you describe and analyse a PV system? From a rate-based incentive to a grid parity PV market Thomas Nordmann CEO TNC Consulting AG CH-873 Erlenbach Switzerland nordmann@tnc.ch 1 PV comparisons between Korea and Germany Conclusions 1 PV module production worldwide Market development Outlook (EPIA 1/7) Production/Year [MWp] ' Quelle: Report IEA-PVPS T1 1:6 3 PV global turnover 6 ca. 1. Mia.! 1'3 1'6 6 7est ' '3 ' 1' 1' Production/Year [MWp] Ongoing annual growth rate!3% 1' 1' 9' 3'8 '9 7'1 6' ' '8 1' '8 6 3' 3' 3'8 '3 1'19 1'3 1' est track rekord pessimistic optimistic 3

2 PV World Market [Wp/Pax Year] PV World Market (Detail without Germany) [Wp/Pax Year] 1 3. newly installed [W/pax year] newly installed [W/pax year] Source: Report IEA-PVPS T1 17: Source: Report IEA-PVPS T1 17:7 6 6 Overcome - The dilemma of the Renewables Adressing the high upfront-cost for investors! PV is like selling a car with a full tank for life-time Petrol for km Prius 17kW : Class A CO-Emission: 1 g/km petrol.3 l /1 km 1 l petrol à SFR 1.8 =! 1. Class Zurich -Genève <>! Class Zurich -Genève <>! 8 1. Class 6.- x Jahre =! Class 9.- x Jahre =! 3. VW Tuareg TDI V1: Class F CO-Emission: 333 g/km petrol 1.6 l/1 km 6 3 l petrol à SFR 1.8 =!

3 Spanish Truckers Block Border! Past: Mix of power production in Switzerland izer Mischpreis für Elektrizität For PV: A few pay everything! 6 % % Trucks massed at a toll plaza near Barcelona on Monday as drivers joined a nationwide strike against the rising cost of fuel EW -.16 /kwh 9 1 Today: Rate-based incentives for renewables Cash Flow Analyses rate-based incentives.1 % 6 % % A few pay everything? All pay a few! Ref [] cash in!/wp 3 1 bank loan 1% 8 kwh/kwp a.6 "/kwh interest, insurance maintenance pay back loan 1.9% 1 Fr EWB -.16 /kwh +.1 Rp Seite 7 cash out 3 investment "/kwp year of operation balance return of investment IEA International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power 1 Systems Programme - PVPS -Task 11 1

4 When will PV power become cheaper? TNC PV installations learning-curve: kW Module [CHF/Wp] Inverter [CHF/Wp] BoS"[CHF/Wp] 13kW 3 7 AMAG Buchs ZH kwp Total CHF/Wp Mark I Mark II kW Mark III 199 7kW 16kW Freilager Sonnenhof kW kw SwissMill III AMAG To Describe and Analyse a PV System: you need several Elements of Data COST AND PERFORMANCE TRENDS IN GRID-CONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS AND CASE STUDIES Module Efficiency System and Maintenance Cost Yield Cost of PV Power Performance Ratio Report IEA-PVPS T-6:7 1 16

5 The Evolution of the nominal Module Efficiency (N = 61) 17 The Evolution of the Inverter Efficience 18 Nominal module efficiency [--] Crystalline cells. Amorphous cells Year of construction 1991 ø #= 11.%! ø # = 13% TNC Th. Nordmann L. Clavadetscher 8 Operational inverter efficiency [--] Year of construction 1991 ø PR =.89! ø PR =.9 = Best Case TNC Th. Nordmann L. Clavadetscher The Evolution of the Performance Ratio (N = 61) 19 The Evolution of the System cost (N = 7) Performance ratio, PR [--] Year of construction 1991 ø PR =.6! ø PR =.7 TNC Th. Nordmann L. Clavadetscher 8 Total plant cost [USD / W], 3 all Systems Year of construction 199 ø 16 USD/W! 6 ø 8 USD/W -%! TNC Th. Nordmann L. Clavadetscher 8 19

6 A typical gridconnected PV system ø 1991 and ø and best case. 1 The next target of the PV industry: Grid parity Typical system tech. I econom. I ø 1991 ø best case Nominal module efficiency [!A] % Operational inverter efficiency [#I] % Outage (O).3.1 /a unit Performance ratio (PR) PR/a Overall PV plant efficiency [!tot] % Improvement % Cost % US$/W TNC Th. Nordmann L. Clavadetscher 8 Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices Photovoltaics Utility peak power Bulk power!/kwh 1,,8,6,,, 9 h/a:,6!/kwh 18 h/a:,3!/kw h Source: W. Hofmann CEO RWE Solar AG 3 1 TNC Cost corridor PV installations Switzerland and Spain 7 - The European Sunbelt first....7 PV installations kwp CH CHF/kWh..3 ESP. CH ? LBBW optimistic TNC conservativ Customer Price...1.6!/kWh European Sunbelt North Africa Portugal, 1. Mio Spain, 39. Mio Italy, 7.68 Mio Greece, 1.6 Mio Turkey 6.3 Mio Total: 183 Mio Inhabitants 3

7 Research about South Korea and Germany general statistic and PV market potential South Korea and Germany in comparison Inhabitants Mio Area [k km ] Inhabitants /km BIP/capita [ k $] MW PV (6) W PV/ capita South Korea Germany Switzerland Solar irradiation available for optimally tilted surface Finnland, Helsinki Switzerland, Bern Austria, Vienna Germany, Munich South Korea, Seoul Australia, Sydney Spain, Palma de Mallorca Algeria, Algir USA, Miami Sahara Summer Winter 7 1' ' 3' [kwh/m a] Source: TNC, MeteoNorm 9% 1% 1% 18% 11% 13% 1% 16% 16% % 7 Cost elements of household power in Germany.197!/kWh (.3 USD) Production Grid Marketing Measurement VAT Power Tax license EEG. Solar PV.6 KWK. Cost elements.1!/kwh 61% Cost Tax elements.76!/kwh 39% Taxes

8 High retail prices for electric power This helps PV in the domestic market (source IEA/OECD 6) Household Sector Germany Denmark Spain Netherlands Ireland Portugal Hungary United Kingdom France Switzerland New Zealand Finland Turkey Czech Republic United States Korea Norway USD/kWh 9 Tax component Conclusions Monday PV is one of the fastest growing sector in the energy world today. An annual growth rate beyond 3% has been achieved. Even conservative outlooks show a similar growthrate for the future. Tuesday The dramatic growth of the market is achieved only been a few front-runner countries. Germany has taken the lead ahead of Japan with the concept of rate-based incentives. Wednesday The cost of installed PV capacity has been dramatically reduced since 199 by 6%. Good PV installations need modules and inverters with good efficiency, high stabile performance ratio and low investments in!/w Conclusions Thursday The next strategic target of the PV industry is to establish grid parity for private utility customers. With a liberalised electricity market PV becomes a self-running market and no longer policy driven industry. Friday The comparison between the PV environment in Germany and Korea shows similarities. The success of the Korea high-tec industry in the electronic sector is the key element to build up an own successful PV industry. Saturday The key element for the German successful PV industry is the solid established home market and its close interaction between customers and the industry Conclusions Sunday PV is a globalised business today! Successful trade relations are needed for fast PV industry development worldwide. A sustainable relation between supplier and customer, demand and supply is mandatory. If South Korea is establishing similar environment as Germany, South Korea becomes the new front-runner! 3 3