Texas Comparative Advantage and Manufacturing Exports
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1 Texas Comparative Advantage and Manufacturing Exports Ten-Gallon Economy: Sizing Up Texas Growth November 7, 2014 Jesus Cañas, Luis Torres and Christina English The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or of the Federal Reserve System. Any secondary distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. May be quoted with appropriate attribution to the author.
2 Motivation for paper Texas exports more goods than any other US state 2 of 10 goods that the US exports come from Texas In 2013: exports = $280 billion; about 20 gross state product Has Texas comparative advantage changed? What do we sell to the world? Who are Texas principal competitors? Countries US states What is the role of productivity in export performance?
3 Texas exports growing faster than the Index, Jan.'03=100, Real $, SA nation since the recession Texas U.S. less Texas NOTE: Last data point is August. SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau; WISERTrade.
4 Texas a major player in world trade (Share of total exports) 2012 Total Manufacturing Exports Petroleum & Coal Products Chemicals Machinery, Except Electrical Computer & Electronic Products Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components Transportation Equipment Plastics & Rubber Products Printed Matter And Related Products Paper Textiles & Fabrics Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities Primary Metal Mfg Food and Kindred Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Furniture & Fixtures Beverages & Tobacco Products Leather & Allied Products Textile Mill Products Wood Products Apparel & Accessories 0.12
5 Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) A country has RCA in a product/sector if it exports more than the share of total world trade that the product/sector represents. RCA > 1 indicates a country exports more than the world s average RCA > 1 implies a country is more efficient in producing such product/sector
6 Methodology for RCA RRRRRR ii RRRRRRRRRRRR = XX ii RRRRRRRRRRRR nn RRRRRRRRRRRR XX ii ii=1 nn ii=1 XX WWWWWWWWWW ii WWWWWWWWWW XX ii Where: RRRRRR ii RRRRRRRRRRRR = SSSSSSSSSS oooo ccccccccccccyy ss rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr cccccccccccccccccccccc aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa iiii NNNNNNNNNN ii XX ii RRRRRRRRRRRR = vvvvvvvvvv oooo ssssssssss oooo ccccccccccccyy ss eeeeeeeeeeeeee oooo NNNNNNNNNN ii XX ii WWWWWWWWWW = vvvvvvvvvv oooo wwwwwwwwww eeeeeeeeeeeeee oooo NNNNNNNNNN ii
7 What do we export to the world? Are we competitive? NAICS NAICS RCA (avg) Share code Description Petroleum & Coal Products Basic Chemicals Resin, Syn Rubber, Artf & Syn Fibers/fil Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components Computer Equipment Motor Vehicle Parts Ag & Construction & Machinery Communications Equipment Other General Purpose Machinery Navigational/measuring/medical/control Instrument Motor Vehicles Other Fabricated Metal Products Aerospace Products & Parts Engines, Turbines & Power Transmsn Equip Electrical Equipment & Components, Nesoi
8 What do we export to the world? Are we competitive? NAICS NAICS RCA (avg) Share code Description Petroleum & Coal Products Basic Chemicals Resin, Syn Rubber, Artf & Syn Fibers/fil Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components Computer Equipment Motor Vehicle Parts Ag & Construction & Machinery Communications Equipment Other General Purpose Machinery Navigational/measuring/medical/control Instrument Motor Vehicles Other Fabricated Metal Products Aerospace Products & Parts Engines, Turbines & Power Transmsn Equip Electrical Equipment & Components, Nesoi
9 What do we export to the world? Are we competitive? NAICS NAICS RCA (avg) Share code Description Petroleum & Coal Products Basic Chemicals Resin, Syn Rubber, Artf & Syn Fibers/fil Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components Computer Equipment Motor Vehicle Parts Ag & Construction & Machinery Communications Equipment Other General Purpose Machinery Navigational/measuring/medical/control Instrument Motor Vehicles Other Fabricated Metal Products Aerospace Products & Parts Engines, Turbines & Power Transmsn Equip Electrical Equipment & Components, Nesoi
10 What do we export to the world? Are we competitive? NAICS NAICS RCA (avg) Share code Description Petroleum & Coal Products Basic Chemicals Resin, Syn Rubber, Artf & Syn Fibers/fil Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components Computer Equipment Motor Vehicle Parts Ag & Construction & Machinery Communications Equipment Other General Purpose Machinery Navigational/measuring/medical/control Instrument Motor Vehicles Other Fabricated Metal Products Aerospace Products & Parts Engines, Turbines & Power Transmsn Equip Electrical Equipment & Components, Nesoi
11 What do we export to the world? Are we competitive? NAICS NAICS RCA (avg) Share code Description Petroleum & Coal Products Basic Chemicals Resin, Syn Rubber, Artf & Syn Fibers/fil Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components Computer Equipment Motor Vehicle Parts Ag & Construction & Machinery Communications Equipment Other General Purpose Machinery Navigational/measuring/medical/control Instrument Motor Vehicles Other Fabricated Metal Products Aerospace Products & Parts Engines, Turbines & Power Transmsn Equip Electrical Equipment & Components, Nesoi
12 Texas main competitors in world markets 0.8 (Based on export mix similarity) 0.7 Spearman Correlation Coefficient *USA without Texas USA* Japan Singapore Korea United Kingdom Israel Germany Finland Norway France Hong Kong Czech Republic Hungary
13 Relative (RCA) Relative RCA = RRRRRR ii TTTT RRRRRR ii JJJJ,SSSS,KKKK If the index => Texas more competitive in global markets than Japan, Singapore or Korea
14 RCA-Petroleum, Chemical, and Synthetics M anufacturing Petroleum & Coal Products 22.72% of Texas Exports Texas/ Japan Texas/Singapore Texas/Rep. of Korea Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Resin, Synthetic Rubber, Artificial Fibers, etc. 5.88% of Texas Exports Basic Chemicals 10.45% of Texas Exports Texas/Rep. of Korea Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea
15 Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea RCA-Computer and Electronic Product M anufacturing Computer Equipment 5.12% of Texas Exports Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Communications Equipment 3.56% of Texas Exports Texas/Rep. of Korea Semiconductors & Other Electrical Components 5.61% of Texas Exports 4.0 Electrical Equipment & Components 1.80% of Texas Exports Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea
16 RCA-M achinery and Other Fabricated M etal M anufacturing Other Fabricated M etal Products 2.45% of Texas Exports Ag Construction & M achinery 4.57% of Texas Exports Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea 5.0 Engines, Turbines, & Power Transmission Equipment 4.57% of Texas Exports 3.0 Other General Purpose M achinery 2.93% of Texas Exports 4.0 Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan 2.5 Texas/Singapore Texas/Rep. of Korea Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea
17 M otor Vehicle Parts 4.65% of Texas Exports RCA-Transportation Equipment M anufacturing Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea Texas/ Japan M otor V ehicles 2.53% of Texas Exports Texas/Rep. of Korea Texas/Singapore (Right Axis) Aerospace Products & Parts 2.25% of Texas Exports Texas/Singapore Texas/ Japan Texas/Rep. of Korea
18 Texas main US competitors in world markets (Based on export mix similarity) Spearman Correlation Coefficient Illinois Ohio California
19 Relative RCA and relative total factor productivity (TFP) Relative RCA = RRRRRR ii TTTT RRRRRR ii IIII,CCCC,OOOO Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is determined by how efficiently and in what proportions capital and labor are utilized in production. Relative TFP = TTTTTT ii TTTT TTTTTT ii IIII,CCCC,OOOO In theory: TFP => RCA => market share
20 Annual Average Productivity Growth ( ) Texas California Illinois Ohio 3251 Basic Chemicals Aerospace Products & Parts Petroleum & Coal Products Engines, Turbines & Power Transmsn Equip Resin, Syn Rubber, Artf & Syn Fibers/fil Electrical Equipment & Components, Nesoi Ag & Construction & Machinery Other General Purpose Machinery Navigational/measuring/medical/control Instrument Motor Vehicles* Other Fabricated Metal Products Motor Vehicle Parts Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components Computer Equipment* Communications Equipment* *Shows TFP avg. at 3-digit NAICS due to availability
21 Percent And the state has gained ground in the last 10 years Texas California Illinois Ohio
22 Texas maintained or improved competitiveness in: Petroleum and basic chemicals. Heavy machinery Transportation equipment Texas has lost competitiveness in: Computer equipment
23 Maquiladora jobs distribution along the border Texas: automotive 100% 90% Title in here 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Services Other Toys Electronics Machinery Transportation Chemicals Furniture Leather Textile Food 0% Tijuana Mexicali Nogales Juarez Acuna Nuevo Laredo Border with CA Border with TX Reynosa Matamoros
24 Preliminary results Identified Texas comparative advantages in the manufacturing industry during (HS to NAICS) Japan, Singapore and Korea California, Illinois and Ohio Comparative advantage in energy related industries has improved or held steady Gained some ground domestically and kept competitive internationally in heavy machinery
25 Preliminary results (cont.) Gained domestic competitiveness in the automotive industry Lost market share in computer and electronics Comparative advantage has increased as Texas industries became more productive Comparative advantage relative to domestic competitors apparently lay on low-capital intensive goods.
26 Texas Comparative Advantage and Manufacturing Exports Ten-Gallon Economy: Sizing Up Texas Growth November 7, 2014 Jesus Cañas, Luis Torres and Christina English Business Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or of the Federal Reserve System. Any secondary distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. May be quoted with appropriate attribution to the author.
27 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing (Index, 2003=100) TX/CA TX/IL TX/OH RCA TX/CA TX/IL TX/OH TFP
28 Semiconductor and electronic components (Index, 2003=100) RCA TFP T X TX/ CA
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