Soot-Free and Zero Emission Urban Bus Fleets

Transcription

1 Soot-Free and Zero Emission Urban Bus Fleets Ray Minjares, Clean Air Program Lead CSE Conclave Towards Clean and Affordable Mobility 5 Sep 2018 Delhi, India

2 Investments in public transport will deliver lower carbon emissions

3 But dirty fuels and engines give even the best buses the worst image

4 Buses represent 1 percent of the on-road vehicle fleet but 25 percent of on-road PM 2.5 emissions Annual PM 2.5 Emissions Buses 25% Other Vehicles [PERCENTAGE] Miller, J.; Minjares, R.; Dallmann, T. R.; Jin, L. Financing the Transition to Soot-Free Urban Bus Fleets in 20 Megacities; Washington, DC, 2017; pp 1 49.

5 Older Technology Diesel Exhaust Consists Mostly of Black Carbon Sasser, E., & Hemby, J. (2012). Report to Congress on Black Carbon (No. EPA-450/R ) (pp ). US Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved from 5

6 World Health Organization study on the Health Effects of Black Carbon (2012) Black Carbon may not be a major directly toxic component of fine particulate matter, but it may operate as a universal carrier of a wide variety of chemical constituents of variable toxicity to sensitive targets in the human body removing the particulates with a modern diesel particle trap.resulted in a complete absence of the cardiovascular effects seen for the whole mixture. Janssen, N. A. H., Gerlofs-Nijland, M. E., Lanki, T., Salonen, R. O., Cassee, F., Hoek, G., et al. (2012). Health Effects of Black Carbon (pp. 1 96). Copenhagen: World Health Organization.

7 Technology Shift Towards Soot-Free Emissions Courtesy of ClearAire, Inc. 7

8 BS VI Engines Deliver Soot-Free Emissions Stages of Black Carbon Emissions Control Based on European Regulatory Approach in Urban Bus Fleets Source: COPERT Emissions Model 8

9 BS VI Cuts High Excess diesel NOx Emission Factors in the Urban Bus Fleet Anenberg, S. C.; Miller, J.; Minjares, R.; Du, L.; Henze, D. K.; Lacey, F.; Malley, C. S.; Emberson, L.; Franco, V.; Klimont, Z.; et al. Impacts and Mitigation of Excess Diesel- Related NOx Emissions in 11 Major Vehicle Markets. Nature Publishing Group 2017, 1 17.

10 Technology Pathways for Soot-Free Engines Euro VI or US 2010 Diesel engines requires ppm S diesel. Older Euro IV-V engines with wall-flow diesel particulate filter can use up to 50ppm S. Gas engines using biogas or fossil gas Zero Emission electric drive engines such as battery-electric, fuel cell, trolleyelectric 10

11 Soot-Free Buses Target Cities Status of Commitments to Soot-Free Urban Bus Fleet in 20 Targeted Cities Istanbul Casablanca Dhaka Mexico City Bogotá Lima Abidjan Lagos Accra Addis Ababa Bangalore Bangkok Nairobi Dar es Salaam Jakarta Manila Santiago São Paulo Johannesburg Sydney Buenos Aires Committed Commitment under development No Commitment September 2018

12 Global Industry Partnership on Soot-Free Clean Bus Fleets 1. Commit to make available soot-free engine technology in all 20 targeted cities by Agree to provide a list of soot-free bus models available to each city 3. Announce this commitment publicly 4. Publicly report the number of soot-free buses sold 5. Agree to provide the name and point of contact designated to each city 6. Agree to update this information on an annual basis soot-free -buses-20-megacities

13 No room for high carbon fuels in a low-carbon fleet Dallmann, T. R., Du, L., & Minjares, R. (2017). Low-Carbon Technology Pathways for Soot-Free Urban Bus Fleets in 20 Megacities (No. Working Paper ). International Council on Clean Transportation (Vol. 356, pp ). Washington, DC. Retrieved from

14 Electric drive engines are more energy efficient than combustion engines ICCT (2017). Low-carbon technology pathways for soot-free urban bus fleets in 20 megacities. 14

15 Highest Up-Front Cost but Lowest Total Cost of Ownership for Battery-Electric Buses in Saõ Paulo Purchase price for electric drive transit buses compared to a conventional diesel bus TCO estimates over 10 years for conventional and alternative technology for Padron LE type buses in São Paulo Source: International Evaluation of Public Policies for Electromobility in Urban Fleets. Prepared for Gesellschaft für International Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) as part of PN Efficient Propulsion Systems. Washington, DC: International Council on Clean Transportation. Forthcoming.

16 Financing Soot-Free Urban Buses in 20 Megacities $ 14 billion net savings with deployment of least-cost soot-free bus engine technology $ 43 billion lower costs when including montized value of lower black carbon and carbon dioxide emissions Lower net outlays in 17 of 20 cities with least cost technology Caution: requires financing models based on total cost of ownership Miller, J.; Minjares, R.; Dallmann, T. R.; Jin, L. Financing the Transition to Soot-Free Urban Bus Fleets in 20 Megacities; Washington, DC, 2017; pp 1 49.

17 Implementation Pathway Theory of Change for Public Fleets Political Commitment Set targets Fleet-Wide Strategy Define technology, infrastructure, operational strategy and cost Public Tendering Procure vehicles and infrastructure in line with the target Vehicle Deployment Put vehicles and infrastructure into service

18 Service-Level Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Modeling at Route Level Inputs Modeling Outputs Route Characteristics Vehicle Specifications Charging Specifications Electricity Cost Emission Factors Ownership Model Vehicle Energy Demand Simulation Emissions Modeling Electricity Cost Modeling TCO Modeling NPV TCO by Ownership Model Average Annual Electricity Cost Vehicle Replacement Ratio Annual Emissions Annual health/climate impacts

19 Santiago route pre-selection for 90 e-bus pilot with a view towards ~2000 e-buses by 2025

20 California 2018 Proposal for Zero Emission Bus Mandate 1. All new buses to be zero emission by All bus fleets to achieve 100% zero emissions by All fleets to submit a fleet-wide deployment strategy Largest fleets (100 or greater) to submit plan by 2020 to achieve 25% ZEB purchases by 2023 to achieve 50% ZEB purchases by 2026 Smallest fleets (less than 100) to submit plan by 2023 to achieve 25% ZEB purchases by 2026 More details online at

21 Saõ Paulo Climate Law to Force Technology Transition in 14,000 buses across 1,340 lines Dallmann, Tim (2018) Climate and air pollutant emissions benefits of bus technology options in São Paulo. Washington, DC: International Council on Clean Transportation. Forthcoming

22 UITP-India/ ICCT support to Bengaluru:

23 Thank you

24 Supplementary

25 Today 20% of new buses are soot-free 2014 Global Bus Sales, by Region* Other 38% EU 5% Korea 1% Turkey 2% USA 2% India 6% China 2% Russia 1% Thailand 1% Requires Soot-Free Buses Adopted Soot-Free Bus Stds Proposes Soot-Free Bus Stds No Requirement India 6% Mexico 1% Thailand 1% Russia 1% Brazil 4% China 29% *Includes only transit and coach buses. Soot-Free defined as Euro VI-equivalent for buses. Does not include sub-national policies 25

26 Climate Benefits of Controls on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants

27 Diesel Engines are a Key Target The scientific evidence was compelling and the Working Group s conclusion was unanimous: diesel engine exhaust causes lung cancer in humans. -Dr. Christopher Portier International Agency for Research on Cancer. (2012, June 12). IARC: Diesel Engine Exhaust Carcinogenic. JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Lyon, France: World Health Organization. doi: /jnci/djs034

28 40% of the fleet has committed voluntarily to zero emissions Updated 2018 May

29 Santiago TCO analysis informs route and technology selection

30 38,000 global deaths annually from excess diesel NOx 80% in China, India, and EU-28 EU-28 ~ 28,000 deaths from diesel NOx ~ 11,500 from all excess diesel NOx ~ 6,900 from excess LD diesel NOx India ~ 3,000 deaths from diesel NOx ~ 1,100 from all excess diesel NOx ~ 100 from excess LD diesel NOx China ~ 31,000 deaths from diesel NOx ~ 10,600 from all excess diesel NOx ~ 1,300 from excess LD diesel NOx Anenberg, S. C.; Miller, J.; Minjares, R.; Du, L.; Henze, D. K.; Lacey, F.; Malley, C. S.; Emberson, L.; Franco, V.; Klimont, Z.; et al. Impacts and Mitigation of Excess Diesel-Related NOx Emissions in 11 Major Vehicle Markets. Nature 2017, 545 (7655),

31 Soot-free standards are increasing the share of new vehicles with diesel particulate filters, but the transition takes longer for the in-use vehicle fleet. Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. 31

32 High Ambition scenario could reduce BC from diesel road transport to 75% below 2010 levels by 2030 Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. 32

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34 Black Carbon Causes Strong Climate Warming Atmospheric Heating Snow and Ice Darkening Sasser, E., & Hemby, J. (2012). Report to Congress on Black Carbon (No. EPA-450/R ) (pp ). US Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved from 34

35 HDDVs account for 75% or more of transportrelated BC emissions. Source: Miller, J., and Jin, L. (2018). Global Progress Toward Soot-Free Diesel Vehicles. 35

36 Energy consumption of on-road diesel engines* has increased more than 400% since 1980 *Diesel engines consume diesel fuel and biodiesel. Based on IEA data from the World Energy Balances Data Service OECD/IEA 2017, Licence: as modified by ICCT. 36