VEGOIL WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT 25 January, 2016

Transcription

1 Executive Summary Domestic Veg. Oil Market Summary Edible oil witnessed mixed sentiment during the week on gains in CBOT soybean oil and BMD CPO. Soy oil, palm oil, refined sunflower oil and groundnut oil closed higher while coconut and closed sideways. Rapeseed closed lower. On the currency front, Indian rupee against USD closed at 67.63, up 4 paisa as compared to the previous week. Factors to watch in the coming weeks will be movement of Indian rupee against US dollar and crude oil prices. We expect edible oil complex to trade sideways to firm tone in anticipation of firm demand. High stocks at port and in pipelines, new supplies from US and strong USD may underpin prices. Recommendation: Weekly Call - : Market participants are advised to go long in RSO above 610 levels for a target of 625 and 630 with a stop loss at 600 on closing basis. We expect refined soy oil at Indore (with VAT) to stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg in the near term. Market participants are advised to go long in CPO above 435 for a target of 450 and 455 with a stop loss at 425 on closing basis. We expect CPO Kandla 5 percent (with VAT) to stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg in the near term. International Veg. Oil Market Summary According to cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia s January 1-20 palm oil exports fell by 10.5 percent to 666,288 tons from 744,563 tons in the corresponding period last month. Top buyers were European Union at 138,563 tons (222,005 tons), India at 102,500 tons (112,800 tons), China at 85,607 tons (20,100 tons), United States at 44,335 tons (70,042 tons) and Pakistan at 17,000 tons (25,000 tons). Values in brackets are figures of corresponding period last month. On the international front, soybean crop prospect in South America and Chinese soybean demand from United States is bullish for the soy complex in the coming days. Soybean crush in US, fine supplies of soybean from Argentina and US, stronger dollar and weak crude oil prices may underpin prices in medium term. El Nino weather pattern, high crude oil prices, weaker Ringgit and supportive biodiesel and tax policies by South East Asian countries may support the CPO prices. However, China demand, palm oil exports, strong Ringgit, import duty by India, fine supplies of soybean from Argentina and US, may underpin palm oil prices in medium term.

2 Soy oil Fundamental Analysis and Outlook-: Domestic Front VEGOIL WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT Soybean oil featured uptrend at its benchmark market in Indore during the week in review, on firm demand. Agriwatch View- Soy oil prices rose during the week on firm demand and fall in temperature in North and East India. Prices of soy oil expected to be firm on decreasing premium of soy oil over palm oil Rs 184 (Rs 190) per 10 Kg. Weak refining margin may slow imports. In USD terms, premium of soy oil over palm oil was USD 179 (USD 150 last week). Soy oil imports may slow down due to weak refining margins and increase in premium of soy oil over palm oil. Prices of soy oil are expected to be firm if temperature in North and East India remains low in near term. According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), India s December 2015 edible oil imports rose by 25.2 percent y-o-y to lakh tons from lakh tons in December Edible oil imports for first two months of the oil year rose by percent y-o-y to lakh tons from lakh tons in first two months of oil year Soy oil imports rose to 4.91 lakh tons (0.97 lakh tons), up by 406 percent y-o-y. Palm oil imports fell by 6.5 percent y-o-y to 7.88 lakh tons (8.39 lakh tons). Sunflower oil imports fell 46 percent y-o-y to 1.02 lakh tons (1.52 lakh tons). Rapeseed (Canola) oil imports fell by percent y-o-y to 0.26 lakh tons (0.36 lakh tons). Values in brackets are figures of December According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), India s stock at ports and in pipelines rose to 2.51 MMT on 1st January, 2016 from 2.43 MMT on 1st December, Stocks at ports and in pipelines are at record levels. Stocks at all ports is estimated at 1.11 MMT tons (CPO 0.52 MMT, RBD Palmolein 0.20 MMT, Degummed Soybean Oil 0.25 MMT, Crude Sunflower Oil 0.10 MMT and 0.04 of Rapeseed (Canola) Oil) and around 1.40 MMT in pipelines. Stocks at ports and in pipelines are estimated at 47 days of India s edible oil consumption on 1st January, 2016 v/s 44 days requirement on 1st December, India s monthly requirement is around 1.6 MMT. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised India s imports of soy oil in its January estimate by 0.2 MMT to 3.55 MMT from 3.35 MMT in its December estimate. India imported MMT of soy oil in 2014/15. Rise in import has been due to lower expected cottonseed oil production. India s consumption in its January estimate has been raised by 0.2 MMT to 4.7 MMT. In 2014/15 India consumed MMT of soy oil. Consumption in 2015/16 rose by 16 percent y-o-y. Soybean oil import scenario According to SEA India imported 490,718 tons of soybean oil in December 2015 v/s 97,027 tons in December 2014, up 406 percent y-o-y. In the oil year (November-December 2015) imports of soy oil is reported at 747,554 tons v/s 218,124 tons in corresponding period last oil year, higher by 243 percent. Imported crude soybean oil CIF at West coast port is offered at USD 734 (USD 701) per ton for February delivery. March delivery is offered at USD 723 (696) per ton and April delivery is offered at USD 719 (USD 696) as on January 22, Last month, CIF CDSO December average price was USD per ton. On the parity front, margins had weakened during the week and we expect to see improvement in margins in coming days. Currently refiners get USD /ton v/s USD /ton (last month) margin in processing the imported Soybean Oil (Argentina Origin). We expect soy oil to trade sideways to firm in the coming days. International Front Agriwatch view Wet conditions in key soybean producing regions in and dry condition in some key areas have cast shadow over crop size in Brazil. However, this crop will be highest in history of Brazil. Various forecasting agencies have reduced their expectation of soybean crop in Brazil. USDA retained Brazil soybean crop at 100 MMT but it is expected to lower crop in February release.

3 Buenos Aires Grains exchange has reported Argentina soybean crop at 58 MMT, which is lower than last year. Argentina removed barriers in import of soybean from its neighboring countries to improve crushing of idle capacity of crushing mills in the country. This will increase supply of soy oil in already flooded oil markets. Farmer release of soybean from Argentina will gradually rise in coming months on increased realizations. Decrease in 2015/16 stocks of soy oil in US by USDA due to higher use is bullish for soy oil. Higher stocks of soy oil due to higher production of soy oil in US as reported by NOPA is bearish for soy oil. Global risk off and concerns of slowdown of Chinese economy will negatively affect prices. Fall in prices of crude oil and strong dollar will be bearish for soy oil. EPA norms in US to increase the production of biodiesel will support prices. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered end stocks of US by 0.35 million pounds in its January estimate to 2,110 million pounds. In January estimate, US 2015/16 soy oil production has been raised by 75 million pounds to 21,925 million pounds. Higher production of soy oil has been estimated on higher extraction rate. Imports have been raised by 40 million pounds to 265 million pounds. Biodiesel use has been increased by 100 million pounds at 5,500 million pounds. Food, Feed & other Industrial use has been raised by 50 million pounds to 14,100 million pounds. Soy oil price estimate is unchanged at 28.5 to 31.5 cents per pound. Informa Economics has raised its 2016 US soybean planting forecast to million acres from million in December. This indicates likely record US soybean production in Argentina has eased the soybean import policies, said the government. This is a step to boost the exports of Argentina s soy meal livestock feed and soy oil during harvesting period when one third of the processing units are idle. The measure is in addition to the latest free-market reform introduced by the newly elected government headed by the President Maurico Macri, easing controls on farm sector. Earlier government had restricted the soybean imports from the neighboring producing countries like Brazil, Paraguay. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) in its report showed that US soybean crush fell in December 2015 to million bushels from million bushels in December 2014, fall of 6.77 percent y-o-y. However, crush was up 1 percent from November at million bushels. Crush reported by NOPA was below analyst estimates. Soy oil production in December 2015 rose to million lbs from million lbs in November 2015, up 1.8 percent m-o-m. In December 2015, soy oil production stood at million lbs. Yield in December 2015 was at lbs/bushel from lbs/bushel in November 2015 and lbs/bushel a year ago. Soy oil stocks on December 31, 2015 were at billion lbs from billion lbs on November 30, Soy oil stocks were at billion lbs on December 31, USDA WASDE Oilseeds Highlights: The 2015/16 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is projected at $8.05 to $9.55 per bushel, down 10 cents at the midpoint based on prices reported to date. Soybean meal is forecast at $270 to $310 per short ton, down 20 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil forecast is unchanged at 28.5 to 31.5 cents per pound. Price Outlook: We expect refined soy oil at Indore (with VAT) to stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg in the near term.

4 Palm oil Fundamental Analysis and Outlook -: Domestic Front VEGOIL WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT Crude palm oil at Kandla featured uptrend in its benchmark market on higher demand at lower quotes. Palm oil prices were higher across board in India. Agriwatch View Increasing soy oil premium over palm oil, which is hovering at USD 179 (USD last week) per ton, improving refining margins may increase imports. Demand is expected to fall due to fall in temperatures in North and East India. Disparity on high seas and high stocks on ports and in pipelines will cap gains. However, bargain buying at lower quotes may improve prices. Prices of palm oil are low compared to other oils, which may induce demand. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered India s 2015/16 palm oil imports to MMT in its January estimate from MMT in December estimate. India imported MMT of palm oil in 2014/15, according to USDA. Lower imports of palm oil are due to higher imports of soy oil and rapeseed oil. Consumption of palm oil in 2015/16 has been lowered to MMT in January estimate from MMT in December estimate. In 2014/145 India consumed MMT of palm oil. Consumption of palm oil in 2015/16 will rise by 10.2 percent y-o-y. On the trade front, CNF CPO (Indonesian origin) at Indian port quoted at USD 555 (USD 547.5) per ton for February delivery. Moreover, RBD palmolein (Malaysian origin) CNF at Indian port, offered at USD 580 (USD 572.5) per ton for February delivery. Ready lift CPO duty paid prices quoted at Rs 426 (Rs 420) per 10 Kg and February delivery duty paid offered at Rs 435 (Rs 426) per 10 Kg on January 22, Values in bracket depict last week quotes. SEA reported imports of Palm oil amounting to 788,078 tons in December 2015 v/s 838,737 tons in December 2014, lower by 6.42 percent on y-o-y basis. In the oil year November (November-December), India imported 1,661,670 tons v/s 1,635,324 tons in corresponding period of last oil year, higher by 1.6 percent y-o-y. RBD palmolein imports have shot up significantly. India imported 229,520 tons in December 2015 v/s 47,321 tons in December In the oil year (November-December 2015) imports of RBD palmolien is reported at 461,192 tons v/s 103,136 tons in the corresponding period last oil year. On the parity front, margins improved during this week due to rise in prices of palm oil products. Currently refiners get USD 40-45/-ton v/s USD 35-40/ton (last month) margin in processing the imported CPO and imports of ready to use palmolein fetches USD 40-45/ton v/s USD 5-10/ton (last month) parity. We expect palm oil to trade sideways to weak in the days ahead. International Front Agriwatch View Weak export numbers of Malaysia in first 20 days of 2016 cast shadow over demand of palm oil. China buying, ahead of Chinese New Year, is low compared to corresponding periods in previous years. However, exports from Indonesia to China have improved in December 2015 in aggressive pricing by Indonesia. Prices of palm oil have shot up recently on expectation of fall in production in Malaysia and Indonesia due to El Nino. Fall in stocks of palm oil in December due to fall in production and improving exports has improved prices. Production of palm in January and February 2016 will be lower than December Stocks may rise if the current pace of exports continues. Malaysia kept export duty of palm oil at zero for February to support exports. Ringgit appreciation is not expected to support palm prices in near term. Global risk aversion and concerns over slowdown of Chinese economy and weakness in Chinese Yuan are bearish for palm prices. Weak Yuan makes imports of palm oil costlier. Low crude oil will make it difficult for Indonesia s biodiesel mandate to succeed. Competing oil prices are expected to affect palm oil prices. Prices will be in a range with positive bias.

5 According to cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia s January 1-20 palm oil exports fell by 10.5 percent to 666,288 tons from 744,563 tons in the corresponding period last month. Top buyers were European Union at 138,563 tons (222,005 tons), India at 102,500 tons (112,800 tons), China at 85,607 tons (20,100 tons), United States at 44,335 tons (70,042 tons) and Pakistan at 17,000 tons (25,000 tons). Values in brackets are figures of corresponding period last month. According to Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Indonesia s palm and palm kernel oil exports rose in December 2015 by 5 percent at MMT from MMT in November Top buyers were China at 632,350 tons (436,910 tons), India at 450,680 tons (506,390 tons), European Union at 368,720 tons (418,050 tons), Pakistan at 165,270 tons (158,950 tons), Bangladesh at 96,700 tons (165,210 tons) and Middle East at 200,460 tons (165,210 tons). Values in brackets are figures of November According to Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia s December palm oil ending stocks fell more than consensus estimates to 2.63 MMT compared to 2.9 MMT in November 2015, fall of 9.52 percent m-o-m. Production in December fell to 1.4 MMT (1.65 MMT), down percent m-o-m. Exports in December fell to 1.48 MMT (1.5 MMT), down 1.09 percent m-o-m. Imports in December fell to 0.08 MMT (0.12 MMT), fall of percent m-o-m. Values in brackets are figures of November According to Indonesian government, Indonesia biodiesel demand in 2016 will rise to 6.94 million kilolitres against a previous estimate of 4 million kilolitres. The government did not give any reason to increase. Indonesia has raised bio content in biodiesel from 15 percent to 20 percent in 2016 to decrease imports of crude oil. According to Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia s palm oil production could rise to 20.1 MMT in 2016 from MMT in Matured area is expected to influence crude oil production. Matured area will increase by 3 percent, especially in Sarawak, according to the board. Malaysia s output of palm oil in 2015 was MMT, up 1.5 percent y-o-y. According to Japan Weather Bureau, El Nino peaked between November and December There is strong possibility of weather returning to normal by summer. El Nino conditions is caused due to warming of Pacific sea-surface leading to dry condition in Asia and Africa while causing extreme wet conditions in South America. Australia weather bureau has said that El Nino which is strongest in last 50 years had peaked in recent weeks and is expected to return to normal by Quarter 2, Price Outlook: We expect CPO Kandla 5 percent (with VAT) to stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg in the near term.

6 Rapeseed oil Fundamental Review and Analysis-: Domestic Front Mustard oil featured downtrend trend in its benchmark market Kota during the week in review on weak demand. Jaipur and Neewai expeller oil prices fell in the course of the week. Prices of Kacchi Ghani were mostly lower in Rajasthan except Bharatpur. In Agra prices ruled higher. Agriwatch view: Prices of rapeseed oil expeller Kota fell on weak demand and seasonal trend in fall of prices. Prices also took cues from rapeseed crop in country, which is reported, in good condition. Prices will take support, as temperature fall will induce demand in near term with forecasts of lower temperature in near term. Prices may find support at lower quotes. Kachi Ghani prices were mostly unchanged lower in Rajasthan on weak demand. Prices of rapeseed oil were ruling high and price sensitive Indian consumers unlikely to shell out extra to consume rapeseed oil, and shifted to alternate oils. Demand will improve when prices fall in retail markets. Imports of rapeseed (Canola) oil will rise on low premium of rapeseed (canola oil) over soy oil. Markets are expected to trade sideways to weak tone in coming days. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased India s 2015/16 rapeseed oil imports to 0.45 MMT in its January estimate from 0.40 MMT in December estimate. In 2014/15 India imported MMT. Domestic consumption in 2015/16 has been raised to MMT in its January estimate from MMT in December estimate. In 2014/15 domestic consumption of rapeseed oil was MMT. Domestic consumption of rapeseed oil in 2015/16 will fall by 5.3 percent y-o-y. India imported 25,609 tons of rapeseed (Canola) oil in December 2015 v/s 36,490 tons in December 2014, lower by percent y-o-y. For oil year November (November December 2015) India imported 50,459 tons v/s 70,905 tons in corresponding period in the oil year , lower by percent y-o-y: SEA Rabi rapeseed sowing is slow this year at lakh hectares as on 15 January 2015 compared to lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year. CIF Canola oil premium over soybean oil is USD 6 (USD 42 last week) per ton as on 22 January Low premium of canola oil over soybean oil may increase imports of canola oil. Currently, RM oil at Jaipur market, (expeller) is offered at Rs 819 (Rs 845) per 10 Kg, and at Kota market, it is offered at Rs 720 (Rs 780) per 10 kg as on January 22, Values in brackets are figures of last week. We expect RM seed oil prices to trade sideways to weak tone in the coming days. Price Outlook: Rapeseed oil (without VAT) prices in Kota may stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg.

7 Sunflower oil Fundamental Review and Analysis-: Domestic Front VEGOIL WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT Sunflower oil prices featured downtrend from last week at its benchmark market in Chennai on weak demand. In Hyderabad, prices were unchanged at the end of the week. Agriwatch view: Prices of sunflower oil were up during the course of the week on firm demand. Buying by refiners and traders improved last week due to low premium of sunflower oil over soybean oil. Currently sunflower premium over soy oil is at USD 120 (USD 104 last week) per ton. Demand from refiners improved when prices fell early in the week. Impact of local oils like cottonseed, rice bran oils is receding and will be over by end January. In domestic market, prices of sunflower oil rose on rise in prices of palm oil. Prices of sunflower oil are higher than other competing international oils especially soy oil and palm oil and expected to follow their trend in near term. On the international front, higher sunflower crop in Ukraine this year will be bearish for prices of sunflower oil in international markets. However, sunflower oil being the preferred oil of South India, price fall will be limited. So prices are expected to be sideways to firm in near term. Sunflower sowing is complete in 2.83 lakh hectares in Rabi as on 15 January 2016 v/s 2.69 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year. According to State Statistics Service Ukraine, 353 KMT of sunflower oil was produced in Ukraine in November 2015 v/s 393 KMT in October 2015 and 395 KMT in November ,042 KMT of sunflower oil is produced in Ukraine, which is lowest since 2012/13. Ukraine exported KMT of sunflower oil in December. These exports figures were record in history. The numbers include crude and refined sunflower oil. Since the beginning of marketing season (September- December) Ukraine, exported 1458 KMT of sunflower oil. Key importers were in 2015/16 are India (33% of the total exports), EU (25%), and China (15%). Turkey is the fifth largest buyer with 6% and Malaysia at 4%. Sunflower oil import scenario According to SEA, India imported 1.03 lakh tons of crude sunflower oil during December 2015 versus 1.52 lakh tons in December 2014, down by percent y-o-y. Imports during oil year (November December) were reported at 2.80 lakh tons compared to 3.46 lakh tons during the corresponding period in last oil year, down by percent y-o-y. On the trade front, CIF sunflower oil prices (Ukraine origin) at West coast of India quoted at USD 855 (USD 845) per ton for February delivery. For March delivery quoted at USD 840 (USD 845) per ton. AMJ delivery quoted at USD 835 (USD 840) per ton. CIF sun oil (Ukraine origin) December monthly average was around USD per ton. Values in brackets are figures of last week. Prices are likely to stay in the range of USD per ton in the near term. CIF Sunflower oil premium over soybean oil strengthened from last week and is hovering at USD 120 (USD 104 last week) per ton for February delivery. Sunflower oil global production is seen at MMT in 2015/16 compared to MMT in 2014/15 -USDA. India imports are projected at 1.55 MMT of Sunflower oil in 2015/16 up from 1.53 MMT 2014/15. India is the largest importer of sunflower oil in the world: USDA. Currently, refined sunflower oil at Chennai market is offered at Rs 705 (Rs 700) per 10 Kg, and at Hyderabad market, it is offered at Rs 722 (Rs 722) per 10 kg as on January 22, Values in brackets are figures of last week. We expect sunflower oil prices to trade sideways to firm tone in the coming days. Price Outlook: Sunflower oil (with VAT) prices in Chennai may stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg.

8 Groundnut oil Fundamental Review and Analysis-: ` Domestic Front VEGOIL WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT Groundnut oil prices featured uptrend in Rajkot for the week in review on firm demand. Prices in Chennai were unchanged while higher in Hyderabad during the course of the week. Agriwatch view: Prices in Rajkot and Hyderabad rose on higher demand while prices in Chennai were flat. Prices improved in Rajkot on firm demand and restricted supplies. Prices found support on rise in prices of palm oil and soybean oil. However, prices of groundnut oil are high and price sensitive Indian consumers are not ready to shell out extra when prices of other oils are ruling much lower. Lower sowing of groundnut has also affected sentiment. Supply of seeds from producing regions is slow and crushers are crushing lower than December. Exports of groundnut have improved and quality of groundnut in market is good. Vietnam has lifted the suspension of import of groundnut seed from India. India exports to Vietnam in were 28 percent of total groundnut exports. Thus, prices of groundnut oil may improve in coming days. Groundnut sowing is complete in 3.98 lakh hectares in Rabi as on 15 January 2016 v/s 4.89 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year According to Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC), groundnut (In shell) production reached lakh tons in Kharif 2015 compared to production of lakh tons in Kharif Higher production is due to higher area and higher yield. USDA has projected India s total Groundnut oil consumption at MMT in 2015/16 compared to MMT in 2014/15 lower almost unchanged y-o-y. Groundnut seed production is projected at 4.7 MMT in 2015/16 v/s 4.9 MMT in 2014/15, down by 4.25 percent y-o-y basis. On the price front, currently the groundnut oil prices in Rajkot is hovering near Rs 9,500 (Rs 9,250) per quintal and quoting at Rs 8,800 (Rs 8,800) per quintal in Chennai market on January 22, Values in brackets are values of last week Groundnut oil prices are likely to trade sideways to firm in the coming days. Price Outlook Groundnut oil (without VAT) in Rajkot market is likely to trade in the price band of Rs per 10 Kg.

9 Coconut Oil Fundamental Review and Analysis-: Domestic Front VEGOIL WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT Coconut oil prices featured flat trend during the week at its benchmark market in Kangeyam. Agriwatch view: Coconut oil prices were unchanged during the week in review. However, demand is very weak which led to price fall later in the week. Demand is weak in this current season. Harvesting of coconut is expected to increase in coming days increasing copra availability adversely affecting coconut oil prices. Demand is weak from North India on winters. Even in South India, prices are not recovering during festive demand season indicating that there is very little support in prices even at these levels. Millers are buying copra at very low prices leading to higher stocks with them and they are ready to sell coconut oil at lower prices. Prices of palm kernel oil is low compared to coconut oil prices. Coconut Development board has stated in past that demand pattern in South India has shifted towards palm oil leading to lower demand of coconut oil affecting prices. Demand is weak from stockiest and retailers. Corporate demand has shifted to palm kernel oil on cheaper availability. Traders and upcountry buyers are waiting for price fall to start buying. In Kochi, prices weakened on weak demand. In Trissur, prices were unchanged during the week. Therefore, prices are expected to be sideways to lower in near term. There are demands from various quarters of coconut industry to increase Minimum Support Prices (MSP) of copra and ban import of palm kernel oil. MSP of copra has been increased from Rs per kg to Rs 55 per kg in last few years. In last few years, increase in MSP is around eight percent while rise in cost is around percent, making coconut industry unviable for coconut farmers. Labor cost has increased by 30 percent during this period. On the price front, currently the coconut oil prices in Trissur is hovering near Rs 8,600 (8,600) per quintal, and was quoting Rs 8,200 (8,200) per quintal in Erode market on January 22, Price Outlook: Coconut oil (withut VAT) prices in Erode may stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg.

10 Import Parity Trend Import Parity After Refining in US dollar per tons (Monthly Average) CSO Argentina CSO Brazil CSO US CPO Indonesia RBD Palmolein Nov, Dec, Outlook-: Import parity for crude soy oil from Argentina and palm oil after refining is hovering in negative territory due to rise in prices of imported oils. We expect CDSO import parity to improve towards positive side. However, parity in palm oil products may increase palm oil imports in the coming days.

11 Technical Analysis (Refined soy oil) VEGOIL WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT Refined soy oil Futures (NCDEX, Daily February, Chart) Refined soy oil (Weekly chart, Indore Rs/10 Kg Inclusive VAT) Outlook Refined soybean oil witnessed uptrend during the week in review and is likely to trade with a sideways to firm tone in the coming days. Weekly chart of refined soy oil at NCDEX depicts gains during the week in review. We expect prices to trade sideways to firm tone in the near term. Any close below 600 in weekly chart shall change the sentiments and might take the prices to bearish phase and bring prices to 580 levels. Expected price band for next week is level in near to medium term. RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are going up indicating uptrend in prices. Strategy: Market participants are advised to go long in RSO above 610 levels for a target of 625 and 630 with a stop loss at 600 on closing basis. RSO NCDEX (Feb) Support and Resistance S2 S1 PCP R1 R Spot Market outlook: Refined soy oil Indore (with VAT) is likely to stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg.

12 Technical Analysis (Crude Palm oil) VEGOIL WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT Crude palm oil Futures (MCX, Daily February, Chart) Crude palm oil (Weekly chart, Kandla Rs/10 Kg) Outlook - Prices show uptrend during the week. We expect that CPO February contract may trade sideways to firm note. Candlestick in weekly chart of crude palm oil at MCX depicts upside in the prices. We expect prices to trade with a sideways to firm note in the near term. Any close above 450 in weekly chart shall change the sentiments and might bring the prices to 465 levels. Expected price band for next week is level. RSI, Stochastic, and MACD going up suggesting uptrend in prices in the coming week. Strategy: Market participants are advised to go long in CPO above 435 for a target of 450 and 455 with a stop loss at 425 on closing basis. CPO MCX (Feb) Support and Resistance S2 S1 PCP R1 R Spot Market outlook: Crude palm oil is likely to stay in the range of Rs per 10 Kg.

13 Veg. Oil Prices at Key Spot Markets Refined Soybean Oil Commodity Centre Prices(Per 10 Kg) 22-Jan Jan- 16 Chang e Kota Rajkot Delhi Mumbai Indore Kandla/Mundra Unch Kolkata Unch Indore (Soy Solvent Crude) Mumbai (Soy Degum) Kandla/Mundra (Soy Degum) Akola Unch Amrawati Jalna Unch Nagpur Unch Alwar NR NR - Solapur Bundi Dhule Rajkot Hyderabad Delhi Kandla (Crude Palm Oil) Kandla (RBD Palm oil) Mumbai RBD Pamolein Palm Oil Kandla RBD Pamolein Mangalore RBD Pamolein Chennai RBD Pamolein Kakinada RBD Pamolein KPT (krishna patnam) Haldia Unch PFAD (Kandla) Refined Palm Stearin (Kandla) Mumbai Mumbai(Expeller Oil) Unch Refined Sunflower Oil Kandla/Mundra (Crude) Erode (Expeller Oil) Hyderabad (Ref) Unch

14 Chennai Latur (Expeller Oil) Unch Chellakere (Expeller Oil) Groundnut Oil Rajkot Chennai Unch Delhi Unch Hyderabad * Mumbai Gondal Jamnagar Rapeseed Oil/Mustard Oil Mumbai (Expeller Oil) Sri-GangaNagar(Exp Oil) Alwar (Expeller Oil) NA NA - Kota (Expeller Oil) Jaipur (Expeller Oil) New Delhi (Expeller Oil) Unch Hapur (Expeller Oil) Sri-Ganga Nagar (Kacchi Ghani Oil) Unch Kota (Kacchi Ghani Oil) Jaipur (Kacchi Ghani Oil) Agra (Kacchi Ghani Oil) Bharatpur (Kacchi Ghani Oil) Neewai (Kacchi Ghani Oil) Hapur (Kacchi Ghani Oil) Refined Cottonseed Oil Mumbai Rajkot New Delhi Hyderabad Coconut Oil Kangayan (Crude) Unch Cochin Trissur Unch Sesame Oil New Delhi Unch Mumbai Unch Kardi Mumbai Unch Rice Bran Oil (40%) New Delhi Rice Bran Oil (4%) Punjab Unch Rice Bran Oil (4%) Uttar Pradesh Unch

15 Malaysia Palmolein USD/MT Indonesia CPO USD/MT FOB CNF India FOB CNF India RBD Palm oil (Malaysia Origin USD/MT) FOB RBD Palm Stearin (Malaysia Origin USD/MT) FOB RBD Palm Kernel Oil (Malaysia Origin USD/MT) FOB Unch Crude palm Kernel Oil India (USD/MT) CNF India Palm Fatty Acid Distillate (Malaysia Origin USD/MT) FOB Ukraine Origin CSFO USD/MT Kandla CIF Rapeseed Oil Rotterdam Euro/MT FOB Argentina FOB ($/MT) 21-Jan Jan- 16 Crude Soybean Oil Ship 657 Unq - Refined Soy Oil (Bulk) Ship 680 Unq - Sunflower Oil Ship 735 Unq - Cottonseed Oil Ship 637 Unq - Refined Linseed Oil (Bulk) Ship Unq Unq - Chang e * indicates including VAT ****** Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This docume nt is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from the Company. IASL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment). Please see the detailed disclaimer at Indian Agribusiness Systems Pvt Ltd.