Growth magnified due to low base!
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- Archibald Benson
- 6 years ago
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1 MotoGaze December 217 Sector View Overweight Volume performance for November 217 Company Gr. YoY Hero Motocorp 26.1 Bajaj Auto 2.9 TVS Motors 12. Maruti Suzuki 14.1 Tata Motors 47.5 Ashok Leyland 51. Mahindra and Mahindra 18.4 Key players & industry volume growth November 17 Industry HMCL BAL -2.6TVS HMSI Maruti TML M&M Hyundai ALL Key players & industry volume growth YTDFY18 Industry HMCL BAL TVS HMSI Maruti TML M&M Hyundai-.9 ALL.6 Research Analyst 3.3 Nishit Zota 6.6 Vidrum Mehta MoM YoY YTDFY Growth magnified due to low base! December 22, 217 The overall wholesale auto industry volumes for November 217 grew 23.9% YoY. The quantum of growth looks big but it is mainly due to the low base of last year. The Government of India on November 8, 216 had announced demonetisation, which had impacted auto volumes that declined 4.2% YoY. The 2-W volumes grew 24.2% YoY, driven by both the motorcycle and scooter segment. The top two players viz. HMCL & HMSI in the 2-W space reported healthy growth of 26.1% YoY & 41.3% YoY, respectively. The PV segment grew 11.1% YoY, mainly driven by the utility vehicle (UV s) segment, which was up 4.7% YoY. MSIL, the market leader in the PV segment continues to outperform the industry with volumes up 14.1% YoY. The CV segment reported stupendous growth of 43.9% YoY, mainly due to strong growth in the M&HCV & LCV segment that grew 52.3% YoY & 38.4% YoY, respectively. The 3-W volumes grew 65.6% YoY to 94,439 units, after domestic & export volume grew 78.6% YoY & 46.9% YoY, respectively. Domestic tractor volumes grew 17.3% YoY to 47,87 units. With the calendar year coming to an end, the traditional year-end discounts are largely being offered on various models by OEMs. Further, OEMs have announced the price hike of vehicles starting January 218, mainly to pass on the rise in input cost. Uttar Pradesh registers strong volume growth In H2FY18, Uttar Pradesh (UP) reported strong volume growth of 27.5% YoY, with growth in 2-W, PV, CV at 29.3% YoY, 18.9% YoY, 23.6% YoY, respectively. On the flip side, the 3-W segment volume declined 13.2% YoY. Of the total volumes sold in India, UP s market share in 2-W was at (13.6%), 4-W (share at 8.3%), CV (9.2%) and in 3-W (6.8%). Pan-India, model wise, MSIL continues to dominate in the PV industry, with seven of its models continued to feature in the list of top 1 selling PV in India. Alto enjoys numero uno position (with 24,166 units) followed by DZire (volume of 18,54 units) & Baleno (17,769 units) in November 217. Its Vitara Brezza (volume of 14,458 units) takes the fourth position and is the highest selling UV in India. The remaining three spots in the top 1 selling PV list, were grabbed by Hyundai with models like Grand i1, Elite i2 and Creta. In the 2-W space, Activa & Splendor are the top selling 2-W brands with volumes of 226,46 & 225,737 units, respectively. The top 1 selling 2-W brands comprise eight motorcycle, two scooters (Activa & Jupiter) & moped (TVS XL Super). Long term story intact The auto industry weathered key structural events like implementation of BS IV norms & GST, with its volumes recovering, up 9.7% in 8MFY18. The overall 2-W, PV, CV volume growth was at 1.5%, 6% YoY, 5.7% YoY, respectively, in 8MFY18. We expect the strong growth momentum to continue in FY19E, (expect ~1% growth). The government s focus on the rural economy will aid the demand for 2-W players in key under penetrated agrarian states. A buoyant outlook on infrastructure spending will catalyse the M&HCV growth. The pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption & BS VI implementation by 22 is expected to lead to huge investments & partnership in R&D. We believe the major OEMs business will adopt new technology smoothly. However, ancillary companies producing internal combustion engine related parts will face challenges. New technology can prove to be a threat to the incumbent in battery space, with new players & OEMs entering the space. For November 217, the BSE Auto Index declined.8% underperforming the benchmark index, which was down.2%. In our I-direct auto coverage, we remain bullish on frontline OEM stocks like Maruti Suzuki and Eicher Motors.
2 Overall 2-W segment volumes grew 24.2% YoY in November 217. HMSI is the fastest growing 2-W compared to its peers (volumes up 41.3% YoY), thereby expanding their market share by 176 bps YoY to 29.1%. On the other hand, HMCL continues to enjoy a dominant position with share of 36.2% Motorcycle, scooters both drive two wheeler volumes! For November 217, overall 2-W volumes grew 24.2% YoY, mainly supported by both motorcycle & scooter segments, which grew 25.2% & 28.2% YoY, respectively. Overall 2-W domestic volumes grew 23.5% YoY while exports volumes grew 29.1% YoY. In terms of players, the top two - HMCL & HMSI reported strong volume growth of 26.1% & 41.3% YoY, respectively. The other 2-W players viz. TVS & BAL (third & fourth largest player) reported volume growth of 12% & 2.9%, respectively. The 3-W volumes grew 65.6% YoY, as domestic & exports volumes grew 78.6% YoY & 46.9% YoY, respectively. Domestic tractor industry volumes grew 17.3% YoY to 47,87 units & 15.7% YoY to 52,261 units for November 217 and YTDFY18. Market share movement According to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam), the domestic market share of two and threewheeler players as of November 217 is mentioned below. Exhibit 1: Domestic market share movement in two-wheelers Oct Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motors HMSI Others, Data used is YTD Exhibit 2: Domestic market share movement in three-wheelers In November 217, domestic 3W volumes grew 78.6% YoY, mainly supported by market leader Bajaj Auto, which reported strong volume growth of 156.2% YoY, thereby gaining market share by 48 bps YoY to 55.3%. TVS 3-W volumes also grew 151.9% YoY to 1,62 units Others M&M Piaggio Bajaj Auto Oct , Data used is YTD Page 2
3 Overall motorcycle volumes increased 25.2% YoY in November 217. HMCL continues to be the market leader in the space with a share of ~51% Exhibit 3: Domestic market share movement in motorcycles Oct Bajaj Auto Hero Motocorp TVS motor Honda Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Overall scooter volumes grew 28.2% YoY in November 217. HMSI maintained its leadership position in scooters with market share of ~57% YoY Exhibit 4: Domestic market share movement in scooters/scooters 7 Oct Hero Motocorp TVS Motors Honda Others, Data used is YTD Page 3
4 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 HMCL continues to dominate the executive motorcycle segment (<=125 cc) in India with a market share of ~59%. HMSI s volumes have been more volatile thereby resulting in wide fluctuation in its market share in the last 12 months Exhibit 5: Market share movement in executive motorcycle (<125 cc) segment* Bajaj Auto (RHS) Hero Motocorp (LHS) TVS (RHS) HMSI (RHS) * only top 4 two-wheeler OEMs BAL continues to dominate the executive motorcycle segment (<=125 cc) in India with market share at ~56%. HMSI s volumes have been more volatile thereby resulting in wide fluctuation in its market share in the last 12 months Exhibit 6: Market share movement in motorcycle greater than 125 cc segment Bajaj Auto (LHS) Hero Motocorp (RHS) TVS (RHS) HMSI (RHS) *only top three vehicle two-wheeler OEMs Page 4
5 ('s) ('s) ('s) Hero MotoCorp: Sales volumes Hero MotoCorp (HERHON) The market leader in the 2-W space, Hero MotoCorp s (HMCL), volume grew 26.1% YoY to 65,27 units. Its motorcycle & scooter volume grew 23.9% YoY & 42.7% YoY, respectively. Though the strong volume is due to the low base of last year, HMCL reported six lakh-plus vehicles for a seventh consecutive month in FY18 Its top selling model Splendor volume grew 12.2% YoY. HF Deluxe & Passion reported strong volume growth of 4.1% YoY & 38% YoY respectively. Its scooter volumes grew 42.7% YoY, with healthy growth seen in Maestro (up 55.6% YoY), Duet (33.2% YoY) & Pleasure (22.5% YoY). Motorcycles Scooters HMCL has unveiled three refreshes, 125 cc Super Splendor, 11 cc Passion PRO & 11 cc Passion XPRO, which will be launched in a phased manner starting next month. It has also unveiled the Xpluse concept adventure motorcycle at EICMA IN Milan, Italy. Exhibit 7: Volume performance (in units) Segment %chg Oct-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg Motorcycles 525, , , ,496,49 4,94, Scooters 8,46 56, , , , Total Sales 65,27 479, , ,112,867 4,712, Export(inc. above) 16,738 11, , ,634 18, Exports (% of sales) bps bps bps Source: Company, Siam Bajaj Auto: Sales volumes Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO) Bajaj Auto s (BAL) 2-W volumes grew 11% YoY, as exports volume grew 24.5% YoY. Its domestic 2-W volumes reported marginal growth of 1.6% YoY. On a YTDFY18 basis, its domestic volumes declined 7.9% YoY resulting in a significant loss of market share (down 188 bps YoY) in the 2-W space to 9.9% Its Pulsar volumes remained flat, up.8% YoY to 65,742 units. The Pulsar brand crossed a milestone selling over 1 million units since its launch. Volumes of its entry level segment (75 cc to 11 cc), which includes brands like CT, Platina, Boxer & Discover grew 22.8% YoY to 147,914 units mainly due to strong exports growth in Boxer & domestic volumes in Platina. Volumes of CT declined 16.1% YoY to 34,933 units. Volume of V15 declined 55.1% YoY to 5,59 units. New Dominar clocked volumes of 1,426 units Two-Wheelers Three-Wheelers % exports Its overall 3-W volumes grew 94.1% YoY after domestic volumes grew 156.7% YoY driven by discontinuance of permits in Maharashtra, new permits released in Delhi & replacement of twostroke to four-stroke engine in Bangalore. The revival in export market lifted its volumes up 41.1% YoY Exhibit 8: Volume performance (in units) Segment %chg Oct-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg Total 2-wheeler sales 263,97 237, , ,284,183 2,315, W exports 122,22 97, , , , W domestic sales 141, , , ,364,6 1,481, Total 3-wheeler sales 62,488 32, , , , W exports 24,61 17, , , , w domestic sales 37,887 14, , ,829 19, Total Sales 326, , , ,668,866 2,652,62.6 Total Domestic Sales 179, , , ,574,889 1,671, Total Exports 146, , , ,93,977 98, Exports as % of sales bps bps bps Source: Company, Siam Page 5
6 ('s) ('s) TVS Motors: Sales volumes Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds TVS Motors (TVSMOT) TVS volumes (2-W+3-W) for November 217 came in at ~2.5 lakh units, up 12% YoY. The 2-W volumes grew 11.1% YoY while 3-W volumes grew 46.9% YoY Motorcycle segment volumes grew 37.3% YoY to 93,22 units. Volumes of Apache & Star City (family) grew 26.9% YoY to 36,652 units & 56.1% YoY to 29,887 units. Volumes of Sport remained flat, up.6% YoY to 13,729 units. Its scooter volumes grew 7.2% YoY to 78,397 units. This was after overall volume of Jupiter grew 14.3% YoY to 62,897 units. However, the same was partly offset by de-growth in volumes of Pep+ (down 14.1% YoY to 6,935 units) & Wego (down 26.2% YoY to 4,24 units). Its moped volumes declined 8.1% YoY at 71,724 units Export volumes grew 43.8% YoY to 47,27 units as 2-W & 3-W volumes grew 45.7% YoY to 4,185 units & 34% YoY to 7,22 units, respectively Exhibit 9: Volume performance (in units) Segment %chg Oct-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg Motorcycles 93,22 67, , ,938 83, Scooters 78,397 73, , , , Mopeds 71,724 78, , , , Total 2-W Sales 243, , , ,26,94 2,18, Wheelers 8,642 5, , ,974 48, Total Sales 251, , , ,32,68 2,67, Exports(incl. in above) 47,27 32, , , , Exports as % of sales Domestice sales 24, , , ,958,834 1,783, Source: Company, Siam HMSI: Motorcycles & scooter sales volumes Honda Motorcycles & Scooters India (HMSI) For November 217, HMSI s volumes grew 41.3% YoY to 459,791 units. This was after domestic motorcycle & scooter volume grew 56.1% YoY & 38.7% YoY, respectively Domestic motorcycles volumes grew 56.1% YoY as volumes of CB Shine grew 81.8% YoY to 82,247 units. Volumes of Dream & LIVO grew 42.4% YoY to 24,621 units & 45.5% YoY to 18,523 units, respectively. Domestic scooter volumes grew 38.7% YoY, after volumes Activa grew 25% YoY to 226,46 units. Volumes of Dio doubled on a YoY basis, up 15.9% YoY to 27,561 units. The volumes of Aviator declined marginally, down 1% YoY to 6,437 units. The newly launched CLIQ & GRAZIA volumes were at 3,154 units & 17,47 units, respectively, in November 217 Motorcycles Scooters Export volumes grew 6.1% YoY to 27,667 units, after motorcycle & scooter volumes, grew 8.8% YoY to 11,819 units & 4.3% YoY to 15,848 units, respectively. Its export share was at 6% of sales Exhibit 1: Volume performance (in units) Segment %chg Oct-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg Motorcycles 15,42 96, , ,342,994 1,146, Scooters 281,74 23, , ,673,175 2,313, Total Sales 459, , , ,255,388 3,627, Exports(incl.above) 27,667 26, , , , Exports as % of sales bps bps bps Domestice sales 432, , , ,16,169 3,442, Source: Company, Siam Page 6
7 MSIL dominates PV segment The overall passenger vehicles segment for November 217 grew 11% YoY to 339,156 units. MSIL continued to outpace the industry and reported strong volume growth of 14.1% YoY to 154,6 units. Domestic PV volumes grew 14.3% YoY to 275,417 units while exports volumes declined marginally.7% YoY to 63,739 units. Within the sub-segment, the utility vehicle (UVs) space continued with its growth momentum, up 4.7% YoY to 97,3 units, thereby driving the overall PV growth. Volumes of vans grew 19.2% YoY to 16,332 units. The passenger car volumes remained subdued up 1.5% YoY to 225,524 units. For November 217, the UV1 sub-segment grew 43.3% YoY to 74,682 units, driven by MSIL s Vitara Brezza, which has done exceptionally well to be the highest selling UV model in India. For November 217, Vitara Brezza overall volumes grew 44.4% YoY to 14,619 units. The facelift of S- Cross lifted its volumes to 3,476 units vs. 2,138 units in November 216. The Honda Cars WR-V clocked volume of 3,521 units. TML s new Nexon clocked volumes of 4,163 units. Hyundai s Creta volumes grew 12.7% YoY to 13,395 units. Ford s Ecosport volumes grew 48.4% YoY to 17,681 units, post its facelift. Volumes in the UV2 space grew 1.9% YoY to 14,254 units. Volumes of Toyota s Innova grew 35.2% YoY to 6,673 units while that of Honda Cars BR-V grew 26.8% YoY to 912 units. M&M s Scorpio volume grew 13.7% YoY to 3,943 units. The segment was impacted after General Motors stopped selling vehicles in India (Enjoy & Tavera aggregate volume stood at 1,531 units in November 216). The commercial vehicles volume grew 43.9% YoY to 78,73 units, after M&HCV volumes grew 52.3% YoY to 32,95 units & LCV volumes grew 38.4% YoY to 45,798 units. The MHCV/LCV volume ratio was at 28:72 in April 217 vs. the average ratio 41:59 over the past 36 months. However, the same has normalised and is at 42:58 in November 217, as M&HCV volumes gradually recovered. Market share movement According to Siam, the domestic market share for passenger vehicles (PV) and commercial vehicles (CV) in November 217 was as follows: Exhibit 11: Domestic market share movement in passenger vehicles MSIL continues to dominate the PV segment. With continued strong volume growth (outpacing the industry growth) its market share expanded 3 bps YoY to 5.4% in November 217 Others Honda Cars M&M Tata Motors Hyundai Maruti 14.6 Oct , Data used is YTD * passenger vehicles as per Siam include Vans like Gio, Maxximo, Eeco, Ace Page 7
8 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Exhibit 12: Market share movement in A2 segment The A2 (Mini & Compact) segment is the bread & butter category of the passenger car segment. The segment witnessed a demand revival, with volumes up 9.2% YoY on YTDFY18 basis, primarily supported by market leader MSIL which grew 18.1% YoY in the same segment Hyundai Maruti, Top two PV OEMs considered M&HCV & LCV volumes increased 52.3% YoY & 38.4% YoY, respectively, in November 217. Thus, overall CV volumes grew 43.9% YoY Tata Motors continues to be the market leader in the overall CV space with market share of ~44% and is followed by M&M with market share of ~27% in November 217 Exhibit 13: Domestic market share movement in commercial vehicles Oct ALL M&M Tata Motors Others Data used is YTD The MHCV/LCV ratio was at 42:58 in November 217 vs. 28:72 in April 217, after M&HCV volumes sharply recovered from July 217 onwards. Average M&HCV volumes (over the past 36 months) has been ~41% of total CV sales Exhibit 14: Segmental share in CVs M&HCV LCV Page 8
9 136 ('s) Nov'16 Dec'16 Jan'17 Feb'17 Mar'17 Apr'17 May'17 June'17 July'17 Aug'17 Sept'17 Oct'17 Nov'17 (% share of total volumes) ('s) ('s) Tata Motors: Domestic sales volume CV Sales PV Sales Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Jaguar Land Rover sales volume % Jaguar % LR JLR total volumes(rhs) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Tata Motors (TATMOT) Tata Motors overall standalone volumes increased 47.5% YoY to 57,391 units, backed by its domestic CV & UV segment, which grew 71.9% YoY & 37.7% YoY, respectively Domestic M&HCV volumes increased 75.4% YoY to 15,564 units while LCV volumes grew 69.2% YoY to 19,743 units mainly due to overall infrastructure development, overloading restriction thereby creating greater demand for new high tonnage vehicles & due to new launches in the LCV segment. On the PV side, volumes of Tiago & Tigor were at 7,496 units & 2,592 units, respectively. Within its UV portfolio, volumes of Hexa (launched in January 217) & Nexon (launched in September 217) were at 767 units & 4,163 units, respectively, in November 217 JLR s wholesale volumes grew 4.7% YoY at 54,244 units. Jaguar volumes declined 28.9% YoY to 12,287 units. Land Rover volumes grew 21.6% YoY to 41,957 units. We believe the Chinese market would have largely supported the overall growth Exhibit 15: Volume performance (in units) Segment %chg Oct-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg Domestic MHCV 15,564 8, , ,53 9, Domestic LCV 19,743 11, , ,63 114, Domestic Pass.Car Sa 11,556 11, , ,711 91, Domestic UV 5,61 1, , ,338 1, Exports 4,927 5, , ,445 43, Total Sales 57,391 38, , ,6 35, Jaguar 12,287 17, , ,19 11, Landrover 41,957 34, , , , Total JLR Sales 54,244 51, , , , Source: Company, Siam Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI) Maruti Suzuki s (MSIL) volumes grew 14.1% YoY to 154,6 units Maruti Suzuki India: Sales volumes Total Sales Export % Its domestic mini car segment declined 1.8% YoY. This was after growth in Alto (up 3.6% YoY) was offset by de-growth in Wagon R (down 9.8% YoY). Domestic volumes of Baleno, Vitara Brezza were at 17,769 units, 14,458 units, respectively. DZire s volumes normalised at 18,54 units, adjusting for production ramp up & the waiting period. Export volumes grew.8% YoY to 9,3 units MSIL has commissioned a study to gauge the requirement of potential customers as it embarks on the journey to bring on road affordable electric vehicle by 22. Exhibit 16: Volume performance (in units) Segment %chg Oct-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg Omni, Eeco,Versa 13,565 12, , ,353 12, Alto, Wagon-R, Zen, Swift,Ritz, Celerio, Dzire,Baleno 13,651 88, , , , SX4, Swift Dzire Tour, Ciaz 4,9 8, , ,251 66, Total Passengers 121,225 19, , , , Gypsy, Vitara,Ertiga,Brezza 23,72 17, , ,72 127, Total Domestic 144, , , ,11,9 955, LCV (Super Carry) 1,3 15 NA 872 NA 5, NA Exports 9,3 9, , ,63 8, Total Sales 154,6 135, , ,187,735 1,36, Exports as % of sales Source: Company, Siam. Page 9
10 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct ('s) Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 ('s) Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct ('s) Ashok Leyland: Total sales Ashok Leyland (ASHLEY) M&HCV LCV Ashok Leyland s (ALL) volumes grew 51% YoY to 14,457 units, as M&HCV volumes grew 53.6% YoY to 1,638 units. Its LCV segment grew 44.3% YoY to 3,819 units. On a YTDFY18 basis, its M&HCV market share has improved 6 bps YoY to 33% YoY Volumes of M&HCV passenger declined 11.7% YoY to 1,517 units while M&HCV goods volumes grew 75.1% YoY to 9,121 units. Exports grew 12.3% YoY, with overall share at 14.8% of sales ALL aims to diversify its business with focus on 1) LCV aiming to launch one product per quarter; 2) Exports plans to increase export revenue to >3% from the current <1%; 3) Aftermarket aims to increase higher margin aftermarket business; 4) Defence aims to increase its revenue by 1x (from the current revenue of ~ 5 crore to 5, crore, going forward) Exhibit 17: Volume performance (in units) Segment %chg Oct-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg M&HCV Passenger 1,517 1, , ,685 14, M&HCV Goods 9,121 5, , ,374 5, LCV 3,819 2, , ,87 2, Passenger Vehicles - NA NA - - NA Total Sales 14,457 9, , ,866 86, Exports 2, , ,368 7, Exports as % of sales Source: Company, Siam Mahindra and Mahindra: Sales volume Mahindra and Mahindra (MAHMAH) M&M s overall automotive volumes grew 18.4% YoY to 38,57 units. Its core domestic UV segment grew 2.5% YoY to 14,958 units. Volumes of Bolero grew 4.9% YoY to 4,291 units. Volumes of TUV3OO & KUV1OO grew 57.3% YoY to 2,135 units & 85.1% YoY to 2,19 units, respectively, after its facelift. Volumes of XUV5OO & Scorpio grew 15% YoY to 1,229 units & 18.1% YoY to 3,66 units, respectively 2 1 M&M s tractor volumes grew 31.8% YoY to 22,754 units. Domestic tractor industry volumes grew 17.3% YoY to 47,87 units & 15.7% YoY to 52,261 units for November 217 & YTDFY18 Source: SIAM, ICICIdirect.com Research Mahindra and Mahindra: Tractor sales Exhibit 18: Volume performance (in units) Segment %chg Oct-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg UV s 14,958 12, , , , Wheeler pickups 14,262 11, , ,238 11, M & HCV 1, , ,574 9,24 4. Total 4wheeler Sales 31,584 25, , , , Wheeler 4,455 3, , ,247 37, Total Domestic Auto Sales 36,39 29, , ,91 35, Exports 2,531 2, , ,312 27, Total Auto Sales 38,57 32, , , , Exports as % of sales Tractors - Domestic 21,46 15, , , , Exports 1,78 1, , ,82 9, Total Tractors 22,754 17, , ,46 198, Exports as % of sales Source: Company, Siam Source: SIAM, ICICIdirect.com Research Page 1
11 Top domestic model wise volumes for November 217 Exhibit 19: Top 1 passenger vehicle Models sold in India (in units) S.No. Models Models 1 Alto 23,32 Alto 24,166 2 DZIRE TOUR 17,218 DZIRE 18,54 3 Wagon R 15,566 Baleno 17,769 4 Swift 14,594 VITARA BREZZA 14,458 5 Baleno 11,93 Wagon R 14,38 6 Grand i1 11,59 Swift 13,337 7 VITARA BREZZA 9,719 Grand i1 13,249 8 Celerio 9,543 Elite i2 1,236 9 Elite i2 8,917 Creta 8,528 1 Kwid 7,847 Celerio 8,437 Exhibit 2: Top 1 two-wheelers Models sold in India (in units) S.No. Models Models 1 Splendor 21,1 Activa 226,46 2 Activa 18,811 Splendor 225,737 3 HF Deluxe 11,515 HF Deluxe 152,879 4 TVS XL Super 76,381 CB Shine 82,247 5 Jupiter 54,838 Glamour 73,226 6 Glamour 53,31 TVS XL Super 69,888 7 CB Shine 45,236 Jupiter 62,553 8 Pulsar 42,975 Passion 55,68 9 Platina 42,395 Platina 51,89 1 Passion 4,272 Classic 35 49,534 Page 11
12 Upcoming 2-Ws & 4-Ws in India Exhibit 21: Upcoming OEM wise 2-Ws and 4-Ws in India S.No. OEM Bramd / Model Launch Date 1 Maruti Suzuki Swift AMT Jan-18 2 Maruti Suzuki New Swift Feb-18 3 Maruti Suzuki Vitara Apr-18 4 Maruti Suzuki New Ertiga Jun-18 5 Maruti Suzuki Jimmy Dec-19 6 Hyundai New Eon Apr-18 7 Hyundai i2 Sport Jun-18 8 Mahindra & Mahindra New XUV5OO Aug-18 9 Honda Cars Honda Civic Mar-18 1 Hero Motocorp Xtreme 2 S Dec Hero Motocorp ZIR 15 Feb Hero Motocorp Dare 125 Mar Hero Motocorp Hatsur Mar Hero Motocorp Xpluse Jun Hero Motocorp Duet-E Nov Bajaj Auto Pulsar RS 4 Feb TVS Motors Entorq 125 Sep Eicher Motor Continental GT 65 Jun-18 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research, Autondtv Page 12
13 U.P. Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Karnataka Bihar Madh. Prad. Rajasthan West Bengal Maharashtra U.P. Gujarat Kerala Karnataka Tamil Nadu Delhi Haryana Rajasthan Telangana State wise sales mix for H1FY18 (April September 217) State wise market share of PV for H1FY18 Exhibit 22: Top 1 state wise PV volume for H1FY18 (in units) Others 29% Telangana 4% Rajasthan 5% Haryana 5% Maharasht ra 12% U.P. 8% Kerala 8% Karnataka 7% Delhi 6% Tamil Nadu 7% Gujarat 9% H1FY18 (units) H1FY17 (units) YoY growth % State wise market share of 2-W for H1FY18 U.P., 14% Exhibit 23: Top 1 state wise 2-W volume for H1FY18 (in units) H1FY18 (units) H1FY17 (units) YoY growth % Others, 28% West Bengal, 5% Rajasthan, 6% Madh. Prad., 6% Bihar, 5% Karnataka, 6% Maharashtra, 9% Andhra Pradesh, 6% Gujarat, 7% Tamil Nadu, 8% Page 13
14 Gujarat Maharashtra Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Telangana U.P. Kerala Bihar Tamil Nadu Madh. Prad Maharashtra U.P. Tamil Nadu Rajasthan Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Haryana West Bengal Assam State wise sales mix for H1FY18 (April September 217) State wise market share of CV for H1FY18 Exhibit 24: Top 1 state wise CV volume for H1FY18 (in units) Others 3% Assam 4% West Bengal 5% Haryana 6% Gujarat 6% Andhra Pradesh 6% Maharashtra 12% U.P. 9% Karnataka 7% Rajasthan 7% Tamil Nadu 8% H1FY18 (units) H1FY17 (units) YoY growth % State wise market share of 3-W for H1FY18 Exhibit 25: Top 1 state wise 3-W volume for H1FY18 (in units) Others, 22% Madh. Prad., 4% Tamil Nadu, 5% Bihar, 7% Kerala, 6% U.P., 7% Gujarat, 1% Telangana, 7% Maharashtra, 16% Karnataka, 8% Andhra Pradesh, 8% H1FY18 (units) H1FY17 (units) YoY growth % Page 14
15 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Sector view: Over weight compared to index Equal weight compared to index Under weight compared to index Index here refers to BSE 5 Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 4 93 research@icicidirect.com Page 15
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