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2 Vichai Jirathiyut President of Thailand Automotive Institute ASEAN Automotive Industry The World s Next Big Aldo s Mediterranean Bistro and Wine Bar, 27 November 2014 Version: 2.3 Date: 24/11/14 2

3 1. ภาพรวมของอ ตสาหกรรมยานยนต โลก อาเซ ยน และของ ไทย (Overview of Global and Thailand s Automotive Industry) 2. แผนแม บทอ ตสาหกรรมยานยนต พ.ศ (Master Plan for Automotive Industry ) 3

4 1.2 Automotive Industry - World World Motor Vehicle Production growth (thousands) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,520 70,000 60,000 Pasenger Cars Hamburger Crisis -12% 61,792 77,704 Commercial Vehicles 80,045 PC 62 mil units (75%) CV 25 mil.units (25%) 84,100 87,250 ASEAN 5% Rest of Asia 17% Africa 1% Europe 23% 50,000 40,000 30,000 India 4% China 25% North America 19% 20,000 10,000 0 Other 1% South America 5% Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) 4

5 World Motor Vehicle Production Ranking in 2013 No.9 Source: FOURIN, analyzed by TAI 5

6 World Motor Vehicle Sales Ranking in 2013 No.13 Source: FOURIN, analyzed by TAI 6

7 1.3 Automotive Industry - ASEAN ASEAN Motor Vehicle Production 2006 to

8 ASEAN Motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Production and Sales comparison Growth in Source: ASEAN Automotive Federation (AAF)

9 ASEAN Automobile Production & Share in 2013 Source : Thailand Automotive Institute 9

10 1.3 Automotive Industry - Thailand Thailand GDP manufacturing of automotive industry is increased to 9.09% in 2012 Source: NESDB latest data

11 Assemblers and Tier 1 and Tier 2 companies in Thailand Assembler (Car 18 Assemblers / 20 Brands, Motorcycle 7 Companies) 100,000 workers Foreign J/V LSEs Tier 1 (Total 648 Companies) 250,000 workers Foreign Majority 47 % Thai Majority 30 % Pure Thai 23 % SMEs Tier 2,3 (1,700 Companies) 340,000 workers Local Suppliers [* LSEs : Large Scale Enterprises SMEs : Small & Medium Enterprises] Source: Thailand Automotive Institute, April

12 Auto Assemblers in Thailand (Automobile Production Capacity 2.8 million units by this following 18 assemblers 20 brands) 1 HONDA AUTOMOBILE (THAILAND) CO.,LTD. 2 ISUZU MOTOR THAILAND CO., LTD. 10 TOYOTA MOTOR THAILAND CO., LTD. 11 AUTO ALLIANCE (THAILAND) CO.,LTD. 3 MITSUBISHI MOTORS (THAILAND) CO., LTD. 4 T.C. MANUFACTURING AND ASSEMBLY (THAILAND) CO., LTD. 5 SUZUKI MOTOR (THAILAND) CO.,LTD. 6 NISSAN MOTOR (THAILAND) CO., LTD. 7 HINO MOTORS (THAILAND) CO.,LTD. 8 THAI-SWEDISH ASSEMBLY CO., LTD. 9. THONBURI AUTOMOTIVE ASSEMBLY CO., 12 BMW MANUFACTURING (THAILAND) CO.,LTD. 13 GENERAL MOTORS (THAILAND) LIMITED 14 SCANIA (THAILAND) CO.,LTD. 15 FORD MOTOR COMPANY (THAILAND) LIMITED 16 TATA MOTOR (THAILAND) CO., LTD. 17 SAIC MOTOR -CP CO., LTD. 18 DONGFENG MOTOR (THAILAND) CO., LTD. 12

13 Thailand Motorcycle Production Capacity (Motorcycle Production Capacity 2.7 million units by this following 7 assemblers 7 brands) 1. Kawasaki Motor Enterprise (Thailand Co., Ltd.) 2. Triumph Motorcycle (Thailand) Co., Ltd. 3. Thai Honda Manufacturing Co, Ltd. 4. Thai Suzuki Motor Co, Ltd. 5. Thai Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. 6. Ducati Motor (Thailand) Co., Ltd. 7. BMW Manufacturing (Thailand) Co., Ltd. 13

14 Thailand Automotive Industry Growth, (thousand) 2,400 Domestic Export Production 0.14% [ % [2.10 mil.] 2,000 1,600 1, ,392 1,301 1,125 1, ,645 1,458 1,12 1,200 57% 43% , f Note: Include passenger car, pick up 1 ton, van, bus and Source: Thailand Automotive Institute Source: Thailand Automotive Institute 14

15 Proportion of Type of Vehicles in Thailand Production 2014 Double-Cab 33% PPV 7% Bus/Truck 1% Passenger Car 39% Pickup 1 ton 20% Source: Thailand Automotive Institute 15

16 Thailand Vehicle Export to the World % 20% 16% 39% Jan-Dec 13 = 1,119,205 M.B. Jan-Dec 12 = 1,023,660 M.B. Y-O-Y Growth = 2% Cumulative Growth = 9% 15% 21% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 0-20% Asia Oceania Middle East Africa Jan-Dec'12 Jan-Dec'13 Grow th Europe Central & South America Source: Thailand Automotive Institute 16

17 ม ลค าการน าเข า-ส งออกของยานยนต และช นส วนยานยนต Import Export of Thailand s Automotive Industry Source: Thailand Automotive Institute 17

18 Forecast of Thai Automotive Industry Production 4,000,000 Capacity 3,000,000 2,500,000 Capacity 2,870,000 Units Capacity 2,920,000 Units PU & Commercial Forecast Capacity in 2017 >3 million Units PU & Commercial 45% 2,000,000 PU & Commercial 46% 60% 1,500,000 PC PC 55% 54% 1,000,000 PC 40%

19 Eco-Car Phase I vs. Eco-Car Phase II Eco-car phase I Clean: Euro 4 or higher Efficiency: Fuel consumption < 5 L/100 km CO 2 emission < 120 g/km Safety: Passive Safety: full frontal and side impact protection based on UNECE regulations Eco-car phase II Clean: Euro 5 or higher Efficiency: Fuel consumption < 4.3 L/100 km CO 2 emission < 100 g/km Safety: Passive Safety: full frontal and side impact protection based on UNECE regulations Active Safety: ABS, ESC Source: Thailand Automotive Institute 19

20 แผนแม บทฉบ บท 3 พ.ศ Vision 2021 การหาร อก นหน วยงานท เก ยวข องท งภาคร ฐและเอกชนในการกาหนด ว ส ยท ศน 10 ป พ.ศ ประเทศไทยเป นฐานการผล ตยานยนต โลก พร อมด วยห วงโซ อ ปทาน ท สร างม ลค าเพ มในประเทศ และเป นม ตรก บส งแวดล อม Thailand is a global green automotive production base with strong domestic supply chains which create high value added for the country * Green = Environmentally friendly & International standard 20

21 Thailand Automotive Institute 21

22 Impact of AEC on Automotive Industry in ASEAN Presentation DELIVERED BY: CHUKIAT WONGTAVEERAT 27 NOVEMBER 2014

23 OVERVIEW OUR VISION > To Provide Practical Advice for Business OUR SECTOR EXPERTISE > Emerging market specialists with proven expertise in: ABOUT IPSOS BUSINESS CONSULTING OUR PROPOSITION > Fact-based Consulting Agribusiness Energy Automotive Healthcare 23 Construction Industrial

24 Automotive Related Our Service Range in Automotive Related Industries Product coverage Clients Auto OEM Various types of vehicles: Commercial vehicles Passenger vehicles Construction Vehicle OEM Various types of construction vehicles: Excavator Bulldozer Forklift Dump truck Other construction vehicles Vehicle Parts Other Vehicle Related Various types of parts & components for vehicles: Engine and engine parts Filters Tires Other parts Other auto-related products: Automotive lubricant Automotive painting Other products 24

25 AEC AND ASEAN AUTOMOTIVE MARKET

26 ASEAN Automotive The World s Next Big Opportunity Implication Increase Intra-ASEAN Automotive Trade and Investment Abolition of regional tariffs ASEAN Custom Cooperation Increase in Technological Capabilities Harmonization of automotive technological regulations Enhancement of ASEAN automotive manufacturing ability Improvement in Human Resources Capability Fostering of supporting industries and human resources Mutual recognition of human resources certification How AEC affects ASEAN Automotive Industry Impact to Automotive Industry 1. Significant boost in demand for passenger and commercial vehicles 2. Emerging challenge on Japanese dominance 3. Increasing trade volume between ASEAN countries 4. Part Standardization amongst ASEAN countries 1. Less than effective coordination among ASEAN countries to implement AEC on time 2. Lack of infrastructure and capability 3. Changes in political situation 4. Policy harmonization Challenges IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE 26

27 The Multiple Production Bases Across ASEAN Are Further Strengthen by the Integration of ASEAN Through AEC Investment from outside of ASEAN Transmission Front-wheel drive shat Finished Car Plastic/ resin parts Diesel engines Complementary Production Network within ASEAN Investment from outside of ASEAN Gasoline engines CKD for MPV Transmissions With no tariff within the ASEAN community, autoparts components are easily being traded among ASEAN member states in order to leverage each country core competency in order to add value to finished vehicles IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE 27 Investment from outside of ASEAN Engine computers CKD computers Investment from outside of ASEAN

28 Increase in Vehicle Sales and Production Will Proportionally Increase Demand in Materials, Tier 1 and Tier 2 Parts Increasing needs for Materials, Tier 2, and Tier 1 parts as demand for vehicle booms Material Supplier Steels Plastics Rubber and Tires Electronics Glass Leather and Fabric Machinery Tools Mold and Die Jigs and Fixture Tier 2 Tier 1 OEM s Passenger Cars Pick-up Cars Buses Automotive Dealers IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE 28 Concentrated suppliers (materials, tier 2, and tier 1) are more beneficial: Low logistic cost through efficient delivery Lower purchasing cost through higher local contents Ease of parts quality control

29 WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES

30 Thailand Indonesia Differences in Key Characteristics among Top 3 ASEAN Automotive Markets 1. Thailand market share dominated by Pick-Up Trucks (40% as of September 2014), as people in Thailand prefer its usage versatility 2. Government policies such as the Eco-Car Policy encourages Investment in Thailand Automotive Industry 1. Market Share dominated by Multi Purpose Vehicle (Passenger Car) 2. Production and Sales of Passenger Cars, especially MPV, will be more prominent in Indonesia. By the current AEC developments, Indonesia aims to become MPV production base in ASEAN 3. Indonesian government has initiated the automotive production road map aims to overtake Thailand as hub of automotive production in ASEAN IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE Malaysia 1. The only country in ASEAN that has successfully developed national car brand 2. Strong local automotive brands in Malaysia, namely Perodua and Proton, take control of the majority market share as they offer various types of vehicles 3. Malaysian Government has strict policy of 100% parts localization for national automobile manufacturer 30

31 Indonesia, A Rising Star on Aftermarket Parts Market As the number of vehicles increase drastically, Indonesians are very concerned of an OEM aftermarket service. This is one of the key components of determining a vehicle s resale value. After-market driving factor Key success factors in parts-retailing businesses Strategic steps into Indonesian auto market 1. Wide Network of Authorized Service Center 2. Cheaper auto-parts Price 3. Faster Distribution of Auto-parts Supply Chain 1. Located in most major cities in Indonesia 2. Serving in 24 hours and offers free parts delivery 3. Applies modern CRM (Customer Relationship Management) System to ensure high satisfactory of customer 1. Investment in Expanding 3S (Sales, Service, Spare part) Network 2. Localization of Auto-Parts for lower selling price 3. Collaboration with local parts distributors Current Aftermarket Trend In recent years, authorized parts retailers have been expanding throughout Indonesia This business grows as modern automotive retail shops selling fast moving parts, i.e. Car Battery, Shock Absorber, Lubricants In accordance, Franchised Repair Shops have been growing too Example of success story of Franchised Repair Shops: Shop and Drive IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE 31

32 Thailand Plan to Stay Competitive Post AEC Implementation Automotive Master Plan The main focus development will be value added components. Below is the list that was announced by automotive institute in 2012: Transmission Hybrid electric system Light weight vehicle material For other components, the plan will primarily focus on increasing in production volume, more complicated and advanced components. This plan is set to ensure that Thailand will become a leading production base in ASEAN BOI (Thailand Board Of Investment) BOI stated clearly that OEMs can source a high percentage of local components. In order to get tax benefit from the BOI, a vehicle must have at least 40% localization. BOI special incentives for the following component segements: Engine Traction motors (for hybrid and electric cars) Electronic components Automotive electronics Batteries for Evs Electronic stability control (ESC) Transmission Automatic transmission Continuously variable transmissions (CVT) 32 Braking System Regenerative braking system

33 Growth of Hybrid Vehicles in Malaysia Incentives of CKD Hybrid Vehicle and Electric Vehicle Malaysia Hybrid Vehicle Sales Malaysia Key Government Incentives For Hybrid and Electric Vehicle in 2014 Vehicle Category Hybrid Vehicle Electric Vehicle Incentives (Import and Excise Duty) 100% Exemption 100% Exemption Note : Incentive policy applies for vehicle s<2000cc No incentive applies for vehicles >2000cc Build CKD CKD Duty exemption, reduced price difference, and launching of new models has been driving factors for environmentally friendly vehicle in Malaysia for these recent years Substantial growth of hybrid and electric vehicle sales in was caused by the incentives above. As this incentive was first launched to invite vehicle manufacturer to assemble their vehicle in Malaysia However in 2014 this policy is considered not effective by the government. The government has since revised that this policy will only affect CKD assembled car, this could be a problem since almost 90% of sold hybrid and electric vehicles are in the form of CBU. The only CKD assembled car in Malaysia is Honda Jazz Hybrid This is an advantage for Proton and it plans to start offering hybrid vehicles next year 33 CKD = Completely Knocked Down CBU = Complete Build Unit

34 Level of opportunity AEC Will Bring Significant Development in Advancing Markets Myanmar and Philippines have the most promising opportunities in automotive sector Myanmar Myanmar is the world s only newly opened market with GDP growth of 7.8% in 2014 Philippines Being the newly opened and emerging market, implementation of AEC will attract a lot of automotive brands to enter Myanmar While the automotive potential is big, Myanmar is not expected to be the production hub of ASEAN Philippines economy has grown consistently in the recent years, achieving the highest GDP increase of 7.2% in 2013 AEC will develop current Philippines manufacturing capability as well as domestic car sales due to the market competition IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE Vietnam Due to its inability to manufacture auto-parts on its own, lots of the world s big automobile groups have threatened to leave Vietnam because of the country s weak supporting industries Vietnam is experiencing difficulties as its government hasn t released any industrial friendly policy 34 Cambodia Cambodia has been able to manufacture its own self-modified electric car. The car is named as Angkor EV 2014 This development proves Cambodia s capability and bright future in automotive industry. Sales increase is expected in the upcoming years

35 EMERGING CHALLENGE ON JAPANESE DOMINANCE IN AUTOMOTIVE

36 Japanese Manufacturers Dominate More than 80% of Market Share in Indonesia and Thailand Japanese brands are preferred in Indonesia and Thailand because: Superior sales and after sales service High reliability and dual applications Ease of part availability and simplicity of maintenance Market Top 3 leading brands by vehicle sales in 2013 Indonesia Thailand 35.4% 33.6% 14.6% 15.9% 14.1% 15.6% Strong Branding supported with availability of own OEM and Tier 1 Parts manufacturing has given Japanese manufacturer advantage in both Indonesia and Thailand IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE 36 Malaysia 30.1% 22.5% 16.8% Unlike other countries, national brands hold more than 50% market share in Malaysia, much is attributed to the government policy

37 There is an Increasing Challenge on Japanese Dominance in ASEAN, How Much Can They Challenge the Japanese? Some of recent development in ASEAN countries 1. Indonesia At the end of 2013, VW started to assemble its own vehicle Chevrolet under GM Indonesia recently re-opened its manufacturing facility to enter Low-MPV market in Indonesia Tata Motors is also set to establish its manufacturing and distribution base for SEA, 2. Malaysia China is looking to invest RM 2 billion for engine manufacturing facility include research and development center worth RM500 million AEC implementation will exert challenge on Japanese manufacturer 1. Foreign established OEM Manufacturers such as GM, Ford and VW Group are very keen on expanding their ASEAN market as they have been re-utilizing and re-building their manufacturing facility throughout ASEAN 2. By implementation of AEC, local Tier 1 and Tier 2 manufacturers in Indonesia and Thailand are expected to emerge while starting their expansion throughout ASEAN 3. Tax Exemption for 100% Localized Vehicle combined with the AEC will help Malaysian National Automotive Brand on their expansion throughout ASEAN IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE Thailand VW reportedly planning their first Thai factory as manufacturers rush for eco car

38 OUTLOOK OF THAILAND AUTOMOTIVE IN 2015

39 Thousands Thailand Automotive Market Thailand s Automotive Industry set to grow by 15.4% in 2015 Thailand Automotive Production and Domestic Sales 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Ipsos Business Consulting Forecasted Automotive Production in 2015 at 2.25 Million ( Up 15.4%) Forecasted Domestic Sales in 2015 at 985,000 Units IPSOS KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE Production Domestic Sales Key Highlights of 2015 Automotive domestic sales should return to the growth path that existed before the disruption of the First Car Scheme Domestic sales set to get close to 1 million units, stabilizing the domestic market Eco car production will play a central role in the return to growth in 2015 Thailand will retain its position as the main automotive production hub within ASEAN Export production will see continued modest growth at 3% 39 Source: Ipsos Business Consulting Analysis and Forecasting Model

40 Gordon Milne Managing Director, Ipsos UU, Asia Pacific 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

41 So far so informative with a particular emphasis on: 2014 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

42

43 What's missing 43

44 Real People, Real Life 44

45 People feel more about brands than they think about them 45

46 Motivations & Emotions 46

47 Thailand 79% Philippines 72% Indonesia 67% Malaysia 62% Singapore 54% We've arrived! 47

48 And what about the path to purchase? 48

49 The concept of mobility all over the world is changing Change is more rapid than ever, particularly in the Automotive realm New consumer aspirations towards mobility solutions and diversification of engines and vehicle concepts Connections with brands are increasingly complex and fragmented Need to get closer, be more flexible Research in the context of life as it is being lived 49

50 BECOMING PART OF THE CAR BUYER JOURNEY RIGHT TIME. RIGHT PLACE. RIGHT MESSAGE. RIGHT EXPERIENCE. Understand how consumers shape their path to a decision for buying a brand new vs. a pre-loved car. Understand the key points within the consumer journey to define brand engagements along the path. INFLUENCE ALONG THE PATH Uncover the ecosystem of people, channels and brand experiences that influence consumers along their path to a decision. Create new opportunities for brands to enter the ecosystem to fulfill roles along the path to a decision. 50

51 No car Brand Perceptions 51 29

52 Let's hear from real people in real life 52

53 Myanmar October 2014 Click to watch the video 53

54 Indo October 2014 Click to watch the video 54

55 Thailand October 2014 Click to watch the video 55

56 Brand O M E N T U M 56

57 Perceived Visibility Brand Momentum Kia Toyota Nissan Honda Hyundai Mazda 57

58 The Future's Bright The Future's ASEAN 58

59 Your Ipsos Contacts in Thailand Having opened our first office in 1994 in Hong Kong, and completed our first project in ASEAN in 1995, Ipsos Business Consulting is immensely proud of its unique Asian heritage. With over 20 years experience of the ASEAN market we offer clients the best geographical coverage and solid experience across the region. Chukiat Wongtaveerat Consulting Manager Asia Centre Tower, 21 st, 22 nd Fl., 173 South Sathorn Road, Tungmahamek, Sathorn, Bangkok Thailand Sanpichit Songpaisan Country Manager - Thailand Asia Centre Tower, 21 st, 22 nd Fl., 173 South Sathorn Road, Tungmahamek, Sathorn, Bangkok Thailand IPSOS THAILAND CONTACTS chukiat.wongtaveerat@ipsos.com Tel: sanpichit.songpaisan@ipsos.com Tel: Visit Ipsos Online Thailand.bc@ipsos.com thailand.bc@ipsos.com

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