Automated Vehicles and AAMVA: New Paradigms and Great Responsibilities

Transcription

1 driving AV deployment The Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence Automated Vehicles and AAMVA: New Paradigms and Great Responsibilities AAMVA Region IV, Vancouver 2014 Paul Godsmark, B.Sc., M.I.C.E., C.Eng. Chief Technology Officer & Co-Founder 03 June,

2 Scale Car2.0 Impacts AAMVA Role 2

3 Scale 3

4 Safety 93% of crashes involve driver error U.S. 1.9% to 6.0% GDP CANADA 4.9% GDP[2007] 32,479[2011] deaths 33,561[2012] deaths 2,006[2011] deaths [2012] deaths 2,220,000[2011] injured 2,360,000[2012] injured 166,275[2011] injured [2012] injured $277bn[2010] economic cost $871bn[2010] total societal [2007] economic cost $62bn[2007] total societal 4

5 Vehicle Emissions U.S. 58,000 premature deaths/yr 12yr lifespan av. reduction MIT Study 2013 CANADA Major health risk to the 32% living within 500m of highways or 100m of major urban roads All air pollution causes 21,000 premature deaths/yr More effective to remove risk than treat 10 million people. 5

6 Congestion U.S. CANADA 5.5 billion hours $1.5 - $5bn Toronto 2.9 billion gallons $121 billion 6

7 Transistor Count Exponential Technology - Moore s Law A 2 The acceleration is accelerating Siggi Becker 7

8 1837 Telegram 8 39 years later.

9 1876 Telephone 9 97 years later.

10 1973 Mobile phone years later.

11 1993 Smartphone years later.

12 2007 iphone & App Store 12 5 years later.

13 2012 Social Media 13 2 years later.

14 2014 Wearables 14 In development.

15 2014? pcells (x100 wireless data and???) 15 Next year?.

16 2015? Project Tango (3D sensing) 16 Etc.

17 1837 Chicago Street 17 Telegraph invented

18 1879 (patent) Motorwagen 3 years after telephone 18

19 1910 Chicago Street years after 1 st car

20 1929 Chicago Street years after 1 st car

21 1950 Chicago Street years after 1 st car

22 1976 Chicago Street years after 1 st car

23 2014 Chicago Street years after 1 st car

24 Car1.0 changed how and where we lived and worked 24

25 New Paradigms Require New Perspectives Henry Ford: If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses. 25

26 Car2.0 26

27 1950 s Autonomous Highway System GM & RCA: Radio control and magnets 27

28 Ernst Dickmann s VaMoRs Mercedes Van Eureka PROMETHEUS - Thousands of miles, up to 110mph, 3 generations 28

29 1996 Argo Lancia Thema From PROMETHEUS, 1,200 miles 94% autonomous 29

30 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge Sandstorm CMU Red Team 7.32 miles 30

31 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge Stanley Stanford Racing, 150 miles, 6h:54m 31

32 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge Boss CMU Tartan Racing, 60 miles urban, 4h:10m 32

33 2008 Levandowski s Pribot Delivered pizza across SF Bay bridge 33

34 2009 Google Prius Google self-driving car team assembled 34

35 2010 Audi Pikes Peak 12 mile hill climb, 156 turns, 27min (cf 11m48s) 35

36 2011 AutoNOMOS Labs Berlin drive 50 miles of autonomous driving on Berlin roads 36

37 2012 Google Lexus 450h 300,000 miles testing on public roads 37

38 2013 Vislab BRAiVE, Parma Rural-urban demo, in real, complex traffic, vision 38

39 2013 Daimler/Mercedes Bertha Benz Road Trip 60 mile rural-urban demo, vision based 39

40 2014 Induct Navia Electric, 12mph, commercially available Jan 14 40

41 2014 Google mastering city street driving 700k miles, cyclists signals, construction zones 41

42 Google Prototype Vehicle (NEV) 25mph, 100 pilot project CA for 2yrs, and then 42

43 Volvo Drive Me 100 increasingly autonomous cars in Gothenburg 43

44 2020 Nissan Autonomous Drive Commercially viable vehicles on road by

45 This decade Daimler Weber: We want to be first 45

46 Automated Vehicle Characteristics Sensors typically: LiDAR optical radar infrared cameras GPS wheel encoder Combination 360 view, Monitors movements (real time) Reacts in milliseconds 46

47 The Point Cloud 47

48 The Self-Driving Car Aim: Save 1,000,000 lives >700,000 miles in self-drive mode (May 2014) 96,000 miles without intervention (April 2013) 45% confidence crash less than people 727,000 miles for 99% confidence crash less Can be retrofitted or built as new Fleet of up to 32(?) Prius and Lexus RX450H DriverlessCarHQ Fleet of 100 to 200 low speed prototypes 48

49 NHTSA Levels of Automation scary! very hard! NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49

50 AV Legislative & Regulatory Action CANADA - Ontario to permit pilot project to safely test AVs? 50

51 The US Is Ready to Make a $16 Billion Bet on Driverless Cars Energy Department Secretary Ernest Moniz hinted Thursday [May 22, 2014] that auto suppliers developing driverless-car features could be next in line for more than $16 billion in unspent [Advanced] technology [Vehicle Manufacturing] loan. The Detroit News, online, retrieved June 02, 2014: 51

52 Impacts 52

53 How much more will Car2.0 change how and where we live and work? 53

54 Some Current Issues KEY BENEFITS Safety Efficiency Quality of life Environmental Sustainability Economic KEY CHALLENGES Technical Security Legal / Liability Privacy Job displacement Public acceptance 54

55 The New Paradigm When certified safe to drive unmanned: can do work make owners money rapid market penetration 55

56 The new paradigm Impacts: Operational models - roads, logistics, etc. Business models freight, rentals, parking, taxis, car-sharing, P2P, insurance etc. Revenue models industries, government, P3s Almost all Government Ministries will be affected. Expect trillion dollar money flows; 10-25% GDP 56

57 Possible Implementation Scenario Assume NHTSA Level 4 unmanned capability ( ?): 1. Taxi/Trucking industry disrupts 2. Rental/Car Share/Ride Share/P2P models Adapt 3. Shared AV fleets emerge (disabled, seniors etc. suppressed demand) 4. Early-adopter Entrepreneurs hire out AVs 5. Competition - Transport as a Service (TaaS) develops 6. Bus service disrupts 7. Public Transit (LRT, BRT, Trams etc.) impacted 8. Accidents /Collisions significantly reduced 9. Vehicle size/weight reduces - Catalyst for Electric cars 10.Reduced urban parking streets reclaimed 11.Total number of vehicles falls? but VMT increases? 12.Many new business models emerge with societal impacts. 57

58 Morgan Stanley Estimated Savings for US Canada savings =$120bn/yr 6.6% GDP Bull / Bear $0.7 to $2.2 trillion 4.4% to 14% GDP 58

59 Job Displacement U.S. 3.5 million truck drivers 233,000 taxi / chauffeurs 2.4% of workforce CANADA 260,000 truck drivers 50,000 taxi / chauffeurs 1.7% of workforce Some affected jobs: Auto repair, auto insurance, traffic cops, road safety, tow-trucks, driver training, trauma surgeon, healthcare, organ/tissue donation, bus driver, parking attendants Directly impact 20% jobs? Indirectly impact 60% of jobs?

60 AAMVA Role 60

61 Opportunities & Challenges for AAMVA: A 2 technology development is exponential Paradigm shifts are disruptive Watch and Wait? Or, keep pace with California? Laws and regulations to be resolved Standards, guidelines codes of practice to be developed Can policy precede technology? Educate, educate, educate Research, research, research transition period and operational safety are key Areas of impact outside traditional DMV scope Scale of decisions 10%-25% of GDP Over-arching technology deployment ROAD MAP? 61

62 The economic health and competitiveness of a jurisdiction, over the next decade, may directly depend on the decisions AAMVA members make regarding autonomous vehicles. 62

63 Paul Godsmark LinkedIn Let s prepare for the new paradigm.