Autonomous Vehicles: What s In Store for parking operations, and how are you to prepare? Paul Godsmark, CAVCOE

Transcription

1 Autonomous Vehicles: What s In Store for parking operations, and how are you to prepare? Paul Godsmark, CAVCOE 1

2 DON T PANIC (& CARRY A TOWEL)

3 Credit: Kimberley Boswell

4 Automated Vehicles Connected Vehicles Electric Vehicles Sharing Economy ACE Vehicles 4

5 Huge Impacts Safety - 2,000 fatalities save 80% (3.9% GDP) Time save 0.5 Bn hrs Shared TaaS Savings $65bn/yr 1 Money flow >20%GDP? 2 1 Morgan Stanley est. $1.3Tn/yr for US 2 CAVCOE estimate

6 1 st AV Service on an Industrial Site, EDF Civaux 6 shuttles, 2k people save 20-25min & 3M/yr 6

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8 When? ( ) 8

9 GM s Cruise Automation 2018? 9

10 GM Cruise Automation 10

11 GM Cruise Automation 11

12 Cruise: Lights Out at 6-Way Intersection 12

13 Cruise: Human Controls at Road Construction 13

14 Waymo (from Google s SDC Project) 2017? 14 Credit: Kyrsten Sinema

15 AVs won t just transport People Goods But we will see a massive increase in the transportation of Services

16 We have never had a product like this When certified safe to drive unmanned: can do work make owners money rapid market penetration 16

17 Transportation-asa-Service (TaaS)? AV manufacturers won t sell the goose that lays the golden eggs. Long term TaaS profits will be far more profitable. Average Canadian family will be $3,000 better off by not owning car, but using TaaS. 17

18 Compelling Business Case Car Rentals Taxis Car Share Shared Automated Taxis (TaaS) Disabled, Seniors, Young, Poor etc. 18 Ride Share Entrepreneurs TNCs

19 Business Models &Policies will steer outcomes Traffic / Parking / Emissions Conventional Time

20 Business Models &Policies will steer outcomes Dystopian Traffic / Parking / Emissions Conventional Time

21 Business Models &Policies will steer outcomes Dystopian Traffic / Parking / Emissions Conventional Utopian Time

22 Why a big deal? An AV will do work moving people, goods, services An AV will make money for owner AV Demand > Supply Rapid Market Penetration Disruptive

23 Autonomous Vehicle Zones (AVZs) LA Mayor, Eric Garcetti, wants LA to be the first major city with a driverless car neighbourhood Concept drawing of Landsdown Park in Ottawa. Copyright/Courtesy OSEG, Barry Hobin and Richard Brisban Architects, Canon Design and General Motors for the EN- V pods Remove human drivers = Maximum Benefits ASAP Improve quality of life ranking in all categories Promote walkability and active transportation The forgotten 30% unlicensed, disabled, seniors etc. Being discussed in LA, Singapore, Helsinki 23

24 Pick-up & drop-off zones are the new Parking 24

25 Opportunities & Challenges for Parking: Can existing parking facilities be repurposed? Future-proof infrastructure design Fleets will need downtown bases Fuel/recharge, maintenance, cleaning Plan for pick-up & drop-off zones

26 These technologies are coming like a freight train. If we re ready, great. If we re not, tough. They re coming anyway. - Paul Godsmark

27 City of Calgary Parking Thoughts in an Autonomous Vehicle World Presented by: Chris Blaschuk Manager, Transportation Strategy City of Calgary 27

28 Traditional Parking Options 28

29 Future Parking Options with AVs 29

30 Potential Parking Outcomes from AVs Cars drive until they find the nearest spot that balances response time (when summoned) with cost could be in surrounding neighbourhoods Cars drive all the way home after drop-off Cars circulate looking for trips (i.e. for hire) or waiting to be summoned by owners Cars continue to use existing parking supplies 30

31 Common issues Huge drop off / loading demands How to accommodate? On street and/or off street? Building design will likely need to adapt Additional vehicle trips from empty vehicles Congestion impact Price reductions in existing parking facilities How to make up lost revenues? Shift to loading charges? Opportunity to significantly improve customer experience 31

32 Potential Strategies for Cities Consider broader on-street parking management initiatives May need to control all on-street parking, rather than just congested areas Consider the future flexibility of new parking facilities, and scrutinize the need Could use adaptable designs, or consider short / interim solutions that can be replaced Consider the potential for parking developments as part of land use planning in non-traditional (i.e. periphery areas) 32

33 Calgary Downtown Parking Strategy Previously: new developments build 50% of parking requirement on site, pay City remaining 50% to build public parking in surrounding area Development community desired to build 100% of parking requirement on site City agreed to this, with provision for relaxing the requirement if a contribution to broader area infrastructure is made 33

34 Calgary Downtown Parking Strategy Important component of the new approach was the risk to the City of an obligation to build future parking facilities if not warranted / economic Industry better positioned to respond Biggest risk to City of the new approach foregone future parking revenue (if AVs don t / are slow to take hold) 34

35 Autonomous Vehicles: What s In Store for parking operations, and how are you to prepare? Brett Blain, EIA 35

36 Canadian Airports Funding Non aeronautical revenue is an integral component of Canadian Airports Parking is the largest source of non aeronautical revenues for most airports Loss of this stream would require replacement with other fees for airports to continue operating * Source Canadian Airports Council 36

37 Airports Early Adopters Self driving buses and people movers already in airports Christchurch Airport, New Zealand San Jose Airport, California Heathrow Airport, London Parking garage redesign Elimination of drive aisles Car rental companies will embrace early 37

38 Next Generation Autonomous Autonomous aerial taxi commenced at Dubai International Airport 38

39 Airport Business and Sociological Impacts Airline impacts passenger and freight Transit impacts Road network not designed for future traffic demands Legal and insurance impacts Transportation business employs 20% of all Canadians Unemployment and re training 39

40 Autonomous Vehicles: Autonomous Mobility and the Future of Parking Nick Spensieri, Metrolinx 40

41 Context Parking Needs based on Ownership Model vs Percentage Uptake A number of possible scenarios for AV adoption could produce significant changes for land-use, VKT, and parking needs Outcomes depend on the level of automation, ownership model and % of AV uptake Impacts on parking will be largely influenced by the ability of vehicles to fully self-park General expectation exists that use, supply, location and configuration of future parking will be affected Estimates that 90% of surface parking could become surplus but it is unlikely to disappear altogether Given long capital planning cycles it is important to entertain the notion that the current parking supply may no longer be needed Source: University of Toronto (2016) Driving the Future. Report by Banks, I., Rizvi, H., Malik, A., Nogiec, H., & Kearns, M. Autonomous Vehicles and Parking 41

42 Expectations and characteristics Usage Vastly increased Pick-up and Drop-off (PUDO) activity should be expected both curbside and at stations Potential for increased EV charging given technological convergence Supply Significantly lower levels of overall parking need due to increased PUDO, shared vehicles, and private vehicles that return home Location Parking may no longer need to be located within walking distance of destinations Configuration Automated parking may allow for the size of surface spaces to be reduced, smaller structures with lower ceilings, and off-site locations Autonomous Vehicles and Parking 42

43 POTENTIAL street and station level considerations Consider now Design stations and curbsides with expectation of much higher levels of pick-up drop-off activity Re-evaluate expensive capital expenditures for parking and design to maximize flexibility, redeployment and/or future adaptability E.g. Use modular structures or design permanent structures with flat floor construction, outboard ramps, increased ceiling height and live loading capacity Develop real-time, connected, parking inventory to alert vehicles about availability of PUDO and parking spaces Pilot automated robotic parking enforcement Consider in a future state Re-evaluate location of parking with local context and redevelopment in mind Design purpose built AV parking and structures to drastically increase efficiency including Automated Valet Parking Autonomous Vehicles and Parking 43

44 Autonomous Vehicles: What s In Store for parking operations, and how are you to prepare? Ralph Bond, BA Group 44

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