The Eco Influence on Shipbuilding

Transcription

1 The Eco Influence on Shipbuilding IMSF, April 2013 Frederikke Munk Sørensen, MAN Diesel & Turbo < 1 >

2 Disclaimer All data provided on the following slides is for information purposes only, explicitly non-binding and subject to changes without further notice. < 2 >

3 This series of slides is based on information from IHS-Fairplay Updated with information from other sources and own calculations. The series Includes data supplied by IHS Fairplay, Copyright IHS Global Limited, (2011). All rights reserved < 3 >

4 Green Drivers of Shipbuilding Legislation Fuel Prices Consumer Pressure < 4 >

5 Other Drivers of Shipbuilding GDP Growth Trade Growth Population Growth < 5 >

6 Green Drivers of Shipbuilding Legislation Fuel Prices Consumer Pressure < 6 >

7 Legislation Key dates: 2015 & 2020/ Local to ECA Areas Few Ships Affected Seriously Impact on scrap levels? Insignificant < 7 >

8 North America and European ECA ( 27% ) of all ships propelled by MAN B&W Diesel Engines have visited European ECA Area in the period Jan Jan Hereof (10% of all ) have also visited North American ECA Area (25 %) of the ships have visited North American ECA Area (42 %) of all ships propelled by MAN B&W Diesel engines have visited one or both ECA Areas < 8 >

9 Ships propelled by MAN B&W Diesel visiting ECA area in % of the ships have NOT visited an ECA harbour 41.7 % of the ships have visited an ECA harbour (ECA Ships) Out of these ECA Ships: 1.4% visited the ECA Harbours more than 50 times 26.2% visited the ECA Harbours more than 10 times 19,1% called the ECA Harbours only once in 2011 < 9 >

10 Ship Age Distribution All Callings Ships propelled by MAN B&W Engines, Jan 2011-Jan 2012 < 10 >

11 Legislation Key dates: 2015 & 2020/ Global Rules Large effect on total fleet Impact on scrap levels? Insignificant < 11 >

12 Why Insignificant? Fleet Development by Ship age In 2020 Ship Age 2013 Scrap 2015 Scrap Total Fleet Ships > 2000 DWT/GT Source: IHS Fairplay 75% 25% Majority of fleet is too young to scrap and the rest is mainly of no interest of renewal by major shippers < 12 >

13 Legislation 3 Solutions to comply: - Low Sulphur Fuel - Exhaust Gas Cleansing - LNG Fuel All can be acquired by New-Building AND Retrofit < 13 >

14 Green Drivers of Shipbuilding Legislation Fuel Prices Consumer Pressure < 14 >

15 Fuel prices High New-build prices, Large Op.Ex. and Low Earnings = Trouble Highest Newbuilding Prices Contract Year Delivered Ships In vessels Ship Age Scrap Total Fleet Fleet by Ship age Could have an impact on additional shipbuilding Ships > 2000 DWT/GT Source: IHS Fairplay < 15 >

16 Green Drivers of Shipbuilding Legislation Fuel Prices Consumer Pressure < 16 >

17 Consumer Pressure The Unknown (Human) Factor - Size of Impact? - Sort of Impact? - NGO Level? - Environmental labelling as standard? In 2020 Fleet by Ship age Ship Age Scrap Total Fleet Ships > 2000 DWT/GT Shipping currently accounts for app. 3% of the global carbon emissions and the industry is continuously improving the fuel efficiency Could have an impact if the pressure is of a common nature, but the economic incentives have to be strong since the effect will be on more than half the fleet! < 17 >

18 All in all The Prognosis, No. of ships > 2000 DWT/GT < 18 >

19 Thank You Frederikke Munk Sørensen < 19 >

20 Disclaimer All data provided in this document is non-binding. This data serves informational purposes only and is especially not guaranteed in any way. Depending on the subsequent specific individual projects, the relevant data may be subject to changes and will be assessed and determined individually for each project. This will depend on the particular characteristics of each individual project, especially specific site and operational conditions. < 20 >