KBC Group Sell-Side Analyst Consensus Estimate

Transcription

1 KBC Group FY 2018, 2019, 2020 & 2021 Consensus estimate issued by KBC Group Investor Relations office Date of the last update: 4 September 2018 This consensus was built on estimates submitted by analysts to KBC Group NV, during the period from 10 August 2018 to 3 September It is not investment research, and is therefore not subject to the rules governing investment research, including conflict of interest provisions. The material from which the figures are drawn is the sole responsibility of the analysts concerned. KBC Group does not endorse the research, the figures or their correctness and accuracy in any way and accepts no liability in respect of it. KBC Group has not commented on or verified any individual estimates. It should be noted that estimates are, by definition, forward looking and are therefore subject to risks and uncertainties which are subject to change at any time and which may materially affect eventual results. The consensus figures are provided for information purposes only. They should not be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell shares in KBC Group, or to take or refrain from taking any other action.

2 KBC Group POST 2Q 2018 NET RESULT (EUR m) Low AVG High No of observations FY 2018e FY 2019e FY 2020e FY 2021e EPS CET1 (EUR) Low AVG High No of observations (EUR) Low AVG High No of observations FY 2018e 5,63 6,14 6,38 13 FY 2018e 15,9% 16,2% 16,9% 14 FY 2019e 5,08 5,92 6,35 13 FY 2019e 16,0% 16,4% 17,1% 14 FY 2020e 5,07 6,21 6,79 13 FY 2020e 16,0% 16,5% 17,7% 13 FY 2021e 6,20 6,60 7,19 7 FY 2021e 15,9% 16,9% 18,3% 7 DPS RWA (EUR) Low AVG High No of observations (EUR) Low AVG High FY 2018e 3,10 3,71 4,18 13 FY 2018e FY 2019e 3,25 4,12 6,35 13 FY 2019e FY 2020e 3,30 4,38 5,60 13 FY 2020e FY 2021e 4,27 4,70 5,30 7 FY 2021e Pay-out ratio (EUR) Low AVG High No of observations Explanation FY 2018e 55,0% 61,4% 69,2% 12 Low Expresses the lowest estimate from the given range of estimates No of observations FY 2019e 63,0% 70,9% 85,0% 12 AVG Expresses the average estimate from the given range of estimates FY 2020e 63,1% 71,6% 85,0% 12 High Expresses the highest estimate from the given range of estimates FY 2021e 65,0% 73,4% 81,7% 6

3 KBC Group - FY 2018 Net interest income Non-life insurance before reinsurance Life insurance before reinsurance Ceded reinsurance result Dividend income Net result from FI at FV though profit or loss Net realised result from debt instruments at FV through OCI Net fee and commission income Other net income TOTAL INCOME Operating expenses Impairment Share in results of associated companies PROFIT BEFORE TAX Income tax expense PROFIT AFTER TAX Minority interests NET RESULT - GROUP SHARE Belgium Czech Republic International Markets Group Center EPS (earnings per share) 5,63 6,14 6, ,3 6,36 5,63 6,37 6,38 6,11 6,24 6,18 6,11 6,06 6,29 5,93 5,96 DPS (dividend per share) 3,10 3,71 4, ,6 4,15 3,10 3,60 3,71 4,10 3,95 3,71 4,18 3,28 3,60 3,81 3,51 Pay-out ratio (in %) 55,0% 61,4% 69,2% 12 57,0% 64,0% 55,0% 56,5% 58,2% 67,1% 65,0% 60,0% 69,2% 60,0% 65,0% 60,0% CET1 15,9% 16,2% 16,9% 14 16,37% 16,1% 15,9% 16,4% 16,0% 16,4% 16,0% 16,1% 16,9% 16,0% 16,4% 16,2% 16,3% 16,0% of which RWA

4 KBC Group - FY 2019 Net interest income Non-life insurance before reinsurance Life insurance before reinsurance Ceded reinsurance result Dividend income Net result from FI at FV though profit or loss Net realised result from debt instruments at FV through OCI Net fee and commission income Other net income TOTAL INCOME Operating expenses Impairment Share in results of associated companies PROFIT BEFORE TAX Income tax expense PROFIT AFTER TAX Minority interests NET RESULT - GROUP SHARE Belgium Czech Republic International Markets Group Center EPS (earnings per share) 5,08 5,92 6, ,80 6,11 5,08 6,16 6,13 6,0 6,01 6,00 5,81 6,33 6,35 5,79 5,44 DPS (dividend per share) 3,25 4,12 5, ,77 5,00 3,25 4,40 3,86 4,6 3,86 3,91 4,35 3,61 5,20 4,02 3,74 Pay-out ratio (in %) 63,0% 70,9% 85,0% 12 65,0% 80,2% 64,0% 71,4% 63,0% 76,7% 65,0% 65,0% 75,7% 85,0% 70,0% 70,0% CET1 16,0% 16,4% 17,1% 14 16,72% 16,0% 16,1% 16,5% 16,0% 16,6% 16,0% 16,2% 17,0% 16,0% 17,1% 16,4% 16,9% 16,1% of which RWA

5 KBC Group - FY 2020 Net interest income Non-life insurance before reinsurance Life insurance before reinsurance Ceded reinsurance result Dividend income Net result from FI at FV though profit or loss Net realised result from debt instruments at FV through OCI Net fee and commission income Other net income TOTAL INCOME Operating expenses Impairment Share in results of associated companies PROFIT BEFORE TAX Income tax expense PROFIT AFTER TAX Minority interests NET RESULT - GROUP SHARE Belgium Czech Republic International Markets Group Center EPS (earnings per share) 5,07 6,21 6, ,85 6,32 5,07 6,55 6,34 6,4 6,42 6,24 5,99 6,73 6,79 6,13 5,84 DPS (dividend per share) 3,30 4,38 5, ,80 5,30 3,30 4,70 4,00 5,0 4,13 4,07 4,43 4,04 5,60 4,25 4,32 Pay-out ratio (in %) 63,1% 71,6% 85,0% 12 65,0% 82,2% 65,0% 71,8% 63,1% 77,2% 65,0% 65,0% 74,7% 85,0% 70,0% 75,0% CET1 16,0% 16,5% 17,7% 13 17,0% 16,1% 16,2% 16,4% 16,1% 16,9% 16,0% 16,8% 17,1% 16,0% 17,7% 16,6% 16,1% of which RWA

6 KBC Group - FY 2021 LIMITED SAMPLE Net interest income Non-life insurance before reinsurance Life insurance before reinsurance Ceded reinsurance result Dividend income Net result from FI at FV though profit or loss Net realised result from debt instruments at FV through OCI Net fee and commission income Other net income TOTAL INCOME Operating expenses Impairment Share in results of associated companies PROFIT BEFORE TAX Income tax expense PROFIT AFTER TAX Minority interests NET RESULT - GROUP SHARE Belgium Czech Republic International Markets Group Center EPS (earnings per share) 6,20 6,60 7,19 7 6,36 6,98 6,34 6,55 7,19 6,53 6,20 DPS (dividend per share) 4,27 4,70 5,30 7 5,30 5,00 4,90 4,27 4,31 4,53 4,59 Pay-out ratio (in %) 65,0% 73,4% 81,7% 6 81,7% 71,6% 77,3% 65,0% 70,0% 75,0% CET1 15,9% 16,9% 18,3% 7 15,9% 16,2% 16,9% 17,2% 18,3% 17,9% 16,2% of which RWA