Executive Analysis of Global LPG/CNG Vehicles Market. M June 2010

Transcription

1 Executive Analysis of Global LPG/CNG Vehicles Market June 2010

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4 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 9 a. Top 7 key takeaways 10 b. Comparative Analysis of OEMs 11 c. OEM Market Share Analysis 12 d. Supplier Market Share Analysis Industry Challenges, Market Drivers and Restraints and Legislative Trends 14 a. Industry Challenges 15 b. Market Drivers and Restraints 16 c. Key Asia Pacific Market trends 17 d. Key European Market trends 18 e. Key Latin American Market Trends Market Metrics 20 a. Scenario Analysis of LPG/CNG vehicle Market 21 b. European Market Breakdown by OEMs 24 c. Global LPG CNG vehicle OE Market 25 d. OE Vs Aftermarket Analysis Key Conclusions and Takeaways 27 a. Key Conclusions and Takeaways 28 4

5 List of Figures LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Comparative Analysis of OEMs (Europe),

6 List of Charts LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Market Share of OEMs Based on LPG Car Sales (Europe), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Market Share of OEMs Based on CNG Car Sales (Europe), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Supplier Market Share based on Kit Revenues in OE and AM (World), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Industry Challenges (World), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (World), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: LPG Cars Units Shipment (World), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: CNG Cars Units Shipment (World), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: LPG and CNG Cars Units Shipment by OEM (Europe), 2010 and LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: LPG & CNG Cars Units Shipment (OE) (World), 2009 and LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: CNG Cars OE vs AM Analysis (World), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: LPG Cars OE vs AM Analysis (World), LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Key Conclusions (World),

7 Project Objective and Scope OBJECTIVE OF STUDY: As a continuation of Frost & Sullivan s strategic research in the automotive powertrain domain, this research study is conducted to: Evaluate global market potential for LPG / CNG powered passenger cars Identify key market trends, key legislative trends, key market drivers, restraints and industry challenges for LPG / CNG powered passenger cars in the global markets Analyze OEMs strategy towards emission reduction, future products powered by LPG or CNG and supplier / fitment of these systems Understand the future for LPG / CNG powered passenger cars globally Scope: Passenger cars that are partially or dedicatedly powered by either LPG or CNG. Includes cars offered by OEMs with LPG / CNG system at the time of purchase and cars converted by customers to run on either LPG or CNG after the purchase of the car. Does not include light commercial vehicles (vans). Geography: Key Global Markets Middle East Iran Asia India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, South Korea Europe France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Russia South America Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Rest of the World Base Year: 2009 Forecast Period:

8 Research Methodology Frost & Sullivan Market Engineering Methodology Frost & Sullivan market intelligence is based on secondary and primary information, where primary research accounts for approximately 70 per cent to 80 per cent of the data collection process. Secondary Research An extensive review of all the existing information available for this study has been conducted and some representative sources used are: Frost & Sullivan past publication and internal databases Trade press and associations Conferences attended on this topic and interviews conducted through networking events Review and Utilise Existing Information - Avoid spending time on information that is already available - Focus on bridging information gaps, confirm and/or challenge existing knowledge Primary Research For the purpose of this study, telephonic interviews were conducted with key vehicle manufacturers and suppliers. The interviews were targeted at the middle and top level management in purchasing, product development, research and development, product planning and marketing functions. Segment Basic High Luxury High Medium Low Luxury Low Medium MAV Small Sports Super Luxury SUV Examples Ford Ka, Fiat Panda, Opel Agila, Citroen C2, Peugeot 1007, Toyota Aygo BMW 7-series, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, Audi A8, VW Phaeton BMW 3-series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Ford Mondeo, Volvo S40, VW Passat Mercedes-Benz E-Class, VolvoS80, Saab 9-5, BMW 5 Series, Jaguar S type BMW 1-series, Ford Focus, Alfa Romeo 148, Citroen C4, Toyota Corolla, VW Golf, Opel Astra Ford C-Max, BMW F3, Fiat Sedici, Opel Meriva BMW Mini, Mercedes-Benz A-Class, Mazda2, Fiat Punto, Opel Corsa, Citroen C3, VW Polo Chrysler 300, Kia Opirus, Citroen C6, Peugeot 607, Toyota Camry Rolls Royce Phantom, Bentley Arnage, Mercedes Maybach BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz M-Class, Honda CRV, Land Rover Freelander 8

9 Executive Summary 9

10 Top 7 Take Away Facts About Global LPG/CNG Industry 1 While India, Italy and Russia are the largest markets for LPG powered cars; Pakistan, Iran, India and Italy are the largest markets for CNG powered cars While India is set to be undisputed leader in growth for LPG and CNG car sales in the coming years the Iranian market for CNG vehicles is all set to reach 500,000 units by 2016 Average of 50% Cost savings per km compared to petrol and average of 30% Cost Savings per km compared to diesel, key driving force behind global LPG/CNG market growth Stringent CO2 emission norms and tightening ecological standards are expected to be among key drivers for LPG/CNG growth in developed countries, in particular EU In Europe, CNG is expected to have a sharp growth in the coming years however LPG is set to continue as a competitive option because of incentives by the EU countries due to heavy lobbying by the oil companies In South America, Colombia and Bolivia are set to be new growth poles for CNG powered cars. South American governments will replicate EU strategy for reducing GHG emissions 2 main approaches for growth of CNG in Europe. Countries like Italy, Germany, Austria and Switzerland have well developed public filling networks while countries like Spain and France have increased fleet of urban buses and urban garbage trucks 10

11 Comparative Analysis of OEMs: Fiat, Ford, Renault, GM and Volkswagen planning LPG/CNG variants of key models for emerging markets LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Comparative Analysis of OEMs (Europe), OEM Fuel Key Models Key Regions Key Suppliers Fiat Group Ford LPG CNG LPG Panda, Punto Classic, Idea, Grande Punto, Bravo, Delta, MiTo Panda, Punto, Grande Punto, Multipla, Doblo Focus, Fiesta, Transit, Mondeo, Falcon, Ikon 2009 Share of Europe Car Sales Europe Landi Renzo <0.1% Europe, India, Brazil Metatron 55 % Europe, India BRC 1% CNG Focus, C-Max, Transit Europe CNG Technik 0% 2016 share of Europe Car Sales 10-12% 5% GM Group LPG Meriva, Corsa, Matiz / Spark Europe, India, Asia Pacific, Australia BRC & Landi Renzo 1.5% 5% CNG Zafira, Astra Caravan Europe, India Landi Renzo 0.4% Renault LPG Logan, Sandero, Clio, Logan MCV, Megane Europe, India Autogas 2% CNG Logan, Kangoo Europe, India Landi Renzo <0.01% 4% Volkswagen LPG Golf, Golf+, Sharan Europe Landi Renzo 0.7% CNG Caddy, T5, Passat, Passat Estate, Touran Europe, USA, India Landi Renzo 2% 4-5% Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 11

12 Market Share Analysis 14% LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Market Share of OEMs Based on LPG Car Sales (Europe), % LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Market Share of OEMs Based on CNG Car Sales (Europe), % 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 18% 5% 15% GM Hyundai Renault Hyundai Ford Fiat PSA Mitsubishi Others 11% 1% 2% 98% Fiat VW GM Daimler PSA Others Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan Renault, PSA and Ford will focus their efforts on the LPG market in the years to come. Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan Fiat is the biggest players in the CNG OE market. New OEMs entering into this alternative fuel market will enter into the LPG market which will witness as much growth as CNG market but without competition from OEMs like Fiat and German OEMs like VW and is thus more open. Volume OEMs like Fiat will develop more CNG models in the small and medium segment preferable for city driving conditions. OEMs will follow a flexible approach encouraging more retrofitting of LPG rather than OE fitting to reduce the risks of the market and also the uncertainties of incentives and taxation. More active association of LPG suppliers than CNG suppliers resulting in more lobbying by LPG association for favourable incentives. 12

13 Supplier Market Share Analysis: Landi Renzo and BRC global conversion kit manufacturer leaders LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Supplier Market Share Based on Kit Revenues in OE and AM (World), 2009 Others 40% BRC (FSSC) 27% Landi Renzo SpA 33% Note: Others include companies such as Vialle, Prins, Tartarini Landi Renzo SpA BRC (FSSC) Others Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan Landi Renzo and BRC with their associated brands are leading the market in terms of global revenues from LPG / CNG kit sales to both OE and aftermarket. Global presence, OEM contracts, wide product portfolio, continuous R&D efforts in developing systems / technologies on par with changing engine technologies are some of the key factors for their leadership position in the global market. Landi Renzo supplies for Opel while BRC supplies for Chevrolet in the GM group. Except for Landi Renzo and BRC none of the other suppliers can have long lasting OEM relationships because of their size and because they can t afford to offer post service options. Landi Renzo and BRC will look to develop strong OEM relationships and partnerships with small subsidiaries in the USA in the coming years for the LPG/CNG market. 13

14 Industry Challenges, Market Drivers and Restraints and Legislative Trends 14

15 Key Global Market Challenges LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Industry Challenges (World), Increasing competitive Increasing competitive pressure from other pressure from other alternative powertrain alternative powertrain technologies like hybrids technologies like hybrids Development of Development of comprehensive refueling comprehensive refueling station networks station networks Building consumer awareness Building consumer awareness of LPG/CNG benefits of LPG/CNG benefits Meeting global plans of Meeting global plans of LPG/CNG penetration by LPG/CNG penetration by Market challenges Promotion of LPG/CNG Promotion of LPG/CNG conversion from conversion from Governments and Industry Governments and Industry Initiating the Governments to Initiating the Governments to offer a homogeneous offer a homogeneous incentive scheme for a 5 10 incentive scheme for a 5 10 year period year period Increase in weight due to Increase in weight due to fuel tank and kits fuel tank and kits Public attitude towards Public attitude towards safety safety Source: Frost & Sullivan 15

16 Key Global Market Drivers and Restraints Drivers Cost savings in respect to petrol (on average 50% of petrol cost) LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (World), Development of legal incentives for transition to alternative fuels Development of compressive service stations network Tightening emission requirements Expansion of LPG/CNG product lines by OEMs Restraints Insufficient CNG service stations infrastructure Lack of understanding of LPG/CNG benefits among global population Lack of Governmental and Industry Promotions Lack of OEM s support of LPG/CNG sector development in particular regions Competitive pressure from alternative fuels and powertrain technologies Source: Frost & Sullivan 16

17 Key Asia Pacific LPG/CNG Market and Legislative Trends Inspite of slowdown in the global automotive industry in 2009, the Indian passenger car market is witnessing significant growth. As a result congestion and pollution levels in congested cities are increasing and the government is looking at ways to cut pollution and emissions by promoting alternative eco friendly fuels such as LPG and CNG. Cities like Mumbai and Delhi each have over 2000 urban buses running on CNG. With discovery of large new gas reserves, the Indian government has started building supply / refuelling infrastructure critical for the growth of LPG / CNG vehicles. Indian government offers incentives for CNG vehicles. Cost to remain the main driver for the Indian market. In Bangladesh, the Govt. encourages setting up of CNG refueling stations by providing complete funding at low interest rates. Bangladesh will be a key OE retrofitting aftermarket in the next few years with its high number of gasoline vehicles. The government of Iran has made it mandatory that all new cars have to be of dual fuel capacity. With the second largest gas reserves in the world Iran is set to continue as one of the top 3 countries of CNG car sales in the world. Every car in Tehran must now be gas driven. Chinese government is yet to offer incentives for LPG CNG cars and manufacturers are eagerly anticipating these incentives within a year. As the largest car market in the world it will be a watched market for LPG CNG vehicle sales in the coming years. 17

18 Key Europe LPG/CNG Market and Legislative Trends Italy, one of the largest market for LPG / CNG vehicles, witnessed significant growth in LPG & CNG new vehicles and aftermarket conversion in 2009 as a result of the scrapping scheme and incentives however has shown reduced sales with the Italian government removing certain incentives. The sales of LPG and CNG vehicles will reduce by 60 % and 70 % going forward if all the incentives were removed. France is a fast growing market with LPG cars sold in Q as opposed to in the entire year of 2009 with incentives like 2000 Euros for buying LPG along with the scrapping incentives. The Ex Eastern Block of countries like Armenia, Bulgaria and Uzbekistan are set to be fast growing markets for natural gas vehicles. These ex Eastern block of countries have fixed contracts of Take or Pay with Russian gas companies. Owing to introduction of legislation governing CO2 emission of new cars sold in European markets from 2012, car makers are working on offering LPG & CNG variants of their key models in order to reduce its CO2 rating and thereby lower fines post 2012 resulting from CO2 emissions higher than the limit as per the legislation. 18

19 Key Latin American LPG/CNG Market and Legislative Trends Argentina and Brazil are the second and fourth largest markets for CNG powered vehicles. Peru is the only South American country with LPG vehicles. Colombia and Bolivia will be the fastest growing market for CNG aftermarket in the next 3 years. Colombia and Bolivia currently have and natural gas vehicles respectively running in their countries. The Plangás objective in Brazil is to increase the Brazilian south/southeast daily gas production to 55 million cm3 by 2010 in order to lesser import dependency from Bolivia. CNG usage in Argentina has reached a mature stage as both passenger car vehicles and fleet owners use CNG as an alternative for petrol and diesel. Most of these vehicles are retrofitted converted from petrol vehicles. Venezuela is the only country in the region with a government program based on subsidies with the objective to stimulate CNG in vehicles. The Government, through PDVSA and its Autogas program, has given free gas kits to vehicle owners, and money incentives for conversion car shops US$46.5 per vehicle converted. 19

20 Market Metrics 20

21 Scenario Analysis Assumptions Key Scenario Factors Incentives & Regulations Optimistic Scenario Frost & Sullivan Scenario Conservative Scenario Fresh incentives in the different European countries like Poland, Italy, Germany and France alternate years until 2016 and also in India Government regulations mandating taxis to run of LPG CNG fuel These incentives will increase yearly LPG sales in Europe and CNG sales globally by 20% on average Incentives in countries limited only for a period of 2 years Government regulations mandating taxis to run on LPG CNG in European countries like Italy, France, Poland and Asian countries like India and Pakistan No incentives in both European and Asian countries till 2016 No government regulations LPG CNG car sales purely driven by eco conscious consumer Competition Limited penetration (< 5%) for competing green technologies resulting from poor consumer acceptance for hybrids and downsized engines Moderate penetration (5 10%) of mild hybrids and fuel efficient downsized and turbo charged engines LPC CNG car sales affected only mildly in European markets High penetration (>20%) of mild hybrids, full hybrids and fuel efficient downsized and turbo charged engines Therefore decreased penetration of LPG CNG car sales in Europe and India. LPG sales to tumble in Europe Infrastructure 15% of refueling stations are equipped for LPG CNG refueling globally by % of refueling stations are equipped for LPG CNG refueling globally by 2014 <2% of refueling stations are equipped for LPG CNG refueling globally by

22 LPG Cars (OE Market) Scenario Analysis: Global LPG car sales to cross units by 2016 LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: LPG Cars Units Shipment (World), Units Shipment (Million) CAGR ( ): 18.6% CAGR ( ): 6.3% CAGR ( ): -8.5% Year LPG Conservative Scenario LPG Frost & Sullivan Scenario LPG Optimistic Scenario Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan Scenario Analysis (LPG Cars) Optimistic Scenario 211, , , , , ,000 1,220,000 1,300,000 1,850,000 Frost & Sullivan Scenario 211, , , , , , , , ,000 Conservative Scenario 211, , , , , , , , ,000 22

23 CNG Cars (OE Market) Scenario Analysis: Global CNG car sales to reach 1 million units by 2016 LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: CNG Cars Units Shipment (World), CAGR ( ): 18.9% Units Shipment (Million) CAGR ( ): 6.9% CAGR ( ): -0.5 % Year CNG Conservative Scenario CNG Frost & Sullivan Scenario CNG Optimistic Scenario Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan Scenario Analysis (CNG Cars) Optimistic Scenario 672, , , ,000 1,180,000 1,250,000 1,600,000 1,700,000 2,350,000 Frost & Sullivan Scenario 672, , , , , , , ,000 1,220,000 Conservative Scenario 672, , , , , , , , ,000 23

24 European Market Overview: Fiat to dominate the CNG market; Renault, PSA and Ford grow in LPG LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: LPG and CNG Cars Units Shipment by OEM (Europe), 2010 and , ,700 27% 73% 67% 33% 2010 Unit Shipments ('000) % 60% Ford Fiat VW Renault Nisan Italy is set to remain the biggest market for LPG CNG vehicles in Europe with the biggest market share held by Fiat group Ford Fiesta, Dacia Sandero and Fiat Punto will be high selling LPG models in the coming years while Fiat Panda and Fiat Punto will be high selling CNG models Fiat group has the most comprehensive portfolio for LPG CNG vehicles with high selling models like Fiat Panda, Fiat Punto, Lancia Ypsilon and Lancia Musa Poland and Turkey will be fast growing LPG markets for the European OEMs PSA Daimler Hyundai GM Renault, PSA and Ford to have 30 % growth in the LPG market boosted by strong incentives 43% LPG CNG 10% 90% 30% 26% 74% 2016 Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 24

25 Global Snapshot: Global LPG/CNG Vehicle Sales to double and reach 2 million units by 2016 LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: LPG and CNG Cars Units Shipment (OE) (World), 2009 and ~ 2.2 M 1.3 M 57% Unit Shipments ('000) % 43% 25% 75% 59% % 41% 42% Korea Turkey S. America LPG CNG Key: S.America includes Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela Turkey and Poland markets will be key for LPG growth in the coming years Italy is set to remain the largest market for LPG/CNG car sales followed by Iran and India by 2016 Iran to account for CNG car sales by 2016 The South Korean LPG market to touch CNG car sales by 2017 India Iran Italy Pakistan Poland France 2016 Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 25

26 OE vs Aftermarket Analysis: LPG growth mostly in Aftermarket; CNG growth in OE market and limited Aftermarket growth LPG as an alternative fuel is more familiar in the aftermarket as a result of ease of conversion and low cost of conversion to run on LPG. While India, Italy, Pakistan, Poland and Russia are key aftermarket for LPG, India and Italy are the only major OE markets for LPG. Recent trends show that none of the major European OEMs are in favour of OE fitting for LPG vehicles. Vehicles will not roll out of platforms as LPG compatible but will be retrofitted in most cases LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: CNG Cars OE vs AM Analysis (World), Penetration Rate (%) LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: LPG Cars OE vs AM Analysis (World), % 11.10% Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan Year OE AM Penetration Rate (%) % % Year Note: All figures are rounded; the base Year is Source: Frost & Sullivan OE AM Unlike LPG, CNG is familiar in both OE and aftermarket with early growth in Aftermarket from countries like Argentina and OE growth in countries like India and USA expected. Going forward it is expected that CNG powered vehicles will grow in aftermarket in poorer countries such as Bangladesh and Latin American countries like Colombia and Bolivia while it will grow in the OE market in countries like India, China and USA. CNG is considered as a long term viable alternative to conventional fuels and LPG. Hence governments and OEMs are keen on promoting CNG powered cars in the coming years. 26

27 Key Conclusions and Takeaways 27

28 Key Conclusions and Takeaways LPG/CNG Passenger Cars Market: Key Conclusions (World), ,000 LPG vehicles and1 m CNG vehicles to be sold globally by 2015 Largest LPG markets Italy, India, Russia and largest CNG markets India, Iran and Pakistan So what?? Offer LPG / CNG variants of key models in key developing markets Work with kit manufacturers and offer reliable solution to attract consumers otherwise going for aftermarket conversions Cost savings of average 50 per cent compared to petrol/diesel - key driving force behind global LPG/CNG market growth Stringent CO2 emission norms and tightening ecological standards - key drivers for LPG/CNG growth in developed countries, in particular EU Governments to support OEMs by developing re-fuelling infrastructure LPG and CNG greatly help to reduce fleet emissions Lower running and maintenance cost for consumers, eco friendly transportation Source: Frost & Sullivan 28

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