Outages with Initiating Cause Code Unknown by Voltage Class
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1 Outages with Initiating Cause Code Unknown by Voltage Class Statistical Analysis Based on TADS data Svetlana Ekisheva, Senior Statistician TADSWG meeting, Charlotte, NC May 20-22, 2014
2 Outage Counts with ICC Unknown by Voltage Class ( ) AC circuit Outages in TADS ( ) kv kv kv KV Totals Number of outages Number of outages with ICC Unknown 2
3 Percentage of Outages with ICC Unknown by Voltage Class ( ) Percentage of Outages initiated by Unknown in TADS ( ) 25% 23% 20% 17% 19% 19% 15% 10% 5% 4% 0% kv kv kv KV Totals 3
4 Percentage of Sustained Outages by Voltage Class for ICC Unknown vs. All ICC ( ) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Percentage of Sustained Outages by Voltage Class for ICC Unknown vs. All ICC 44% 59% 39% 54% 46% 67% 32% 58% 58% 42% 20% 10% 0% kv kv kv KV Totals ICC Unknown All ICC 4
5 Annual Outage Rate for ICC Unknown by Voltage Class ( ) Average Annual Outage Rate per Line for ICC Unknown ( ) kv kv kv KV Totals All pair-wise annual rate differences between voltage classes are statistically significant (max p< ) 5
6 Outage Rate Changes by Year for ICC Unknown ( ) Outage Rate per Line for ICC Unknown by Year All changes in outage rate are statistically significant (max p<0.04) except 2012 vs and 2009 vs
7 kv Outage Rate Changes by Year for ICC Unknown ( ) kv Outage Rate per Line for ICC Unknown by Year Year-over-year changes in outage rate are statistically significant (max p<0.02) except 2008 vs. 2010, 2009 vs. 2012, 2009 vs. 2013, 2010 vs. 2011, 2012 vs
8 kv Outage Rate Changes by Year for ICC Unknown ( ) kv Outage Rate per Line for ICC Unknown by Year Year-over-year changes in outage rate are statistically significant (max p<0.005) for 2008 vs. 2010, 2008 vs. 2011, 2008 vs. 2012, 2008 vs. 2013, 2009 vs
9 kv Outage Rate Changes by Year for ICC Unknown ( ) kv Outage Rate per Line for ICC Unknown by Year Year-over-year changes in outage rate are statistically significant (max p<0.03) except 2008 vs. 2009, 2008 vs. 2010, 2009 vs. 2010, 2011 vs. 2012, 2011 vs. 2013, 2012 vs
10 kv Outage Rate Changes by Year for ICC Unknown ( ) KV Outage Rate per Line for ICC Unknown by Year No statistically significant changes in outage rate by year due to small sample sizes (annual number of outages ranges from one (2011) to nine (2008). 10
11 Summary: Combined 6-year data From 2008 to 2013, TADS contains records of 26,453 AC circuit outages, 4,932 of them (19%) are initiated by Unknown causes (ICC Unknown) By voltage class, the percentage varies from 4% for kv lines to 23% for kv lines From 2008 to 2013, 58% of TADS outages are sustained and 42% of outages with ICC Unknown are sustained For outages with ICC Unknown, the annual outage rates per line are statistically significantly distinct with the smallest rate of for a kv line and the largest of for a 345 kv line 11
12 Summary: Annual Changes There was a general declining trend in annual outage rate for ICC Unknown, with the annual rate of outages per line in 2012 and 2013 being statistically significantly smaller than for any other year in TADS For kv lines, the 2013 ICC Unknown outage rate of outages per line was statistically lower than for 2008, 2010 and 2011, and with no significant difference with 2009 and 2012 For kv lines, the ICC Unknown outage rate decreased each year; the 2013 outage rate of outages per line was statistically lower than for 2008 and 2009, and with no significant difference with 2010, 2011 and
13 Summary: Annual Changes (continued) For kv lines, the 2013 ICC Unknown outage rate of outages per line was statistically lower than for 2008, 2009 and 2010, and with no significant difference with 2011 and 2012 For kv lines, the ICC Unknown outage rate of outages per line was the second highest after 2008; however, no year-over-year changes for this voltage class are statistically significant due to very small number of observations (9 in 2008, 3 in 2009 and 2010, 1 in 2011, 4 in 2012 and 5 in 2013). 13
14 14
15 15
16 TADS Data TADS Number of lines Number of outages sustained momentary Number of outages with ICC Unknown sustained momentary kv Number of lines Number of outages sustained momentary Number of outages with ICC Unknown sustained momentary kv Number of lines Number of outages sustained momentary Number of outages with ICC Unknown sustained momentary
17 TADS Data (continued) kv Number of lines Number of outages sustained momentary Number of outages with ICC Unknown sustained momentary KV Number of lines Number of outages sustained momentary Number of outages with ICC Unknown sustained momentary
18 Statistical Methodology For comparison of the expected outage rates (year-over-year and for different voltage classes), the testing the homogeneity of Poisson frequencies was used The tests are valid under assumption of the Poisson distribution of the occurrences of outages The null hypotheses on the equality of the expected outage rates were tested at the significance level of
19 References P.G. Hoel. Testing the homogeneity of Poisson Frequencies. Annals of Mathematical Statistics (1945), pp M. G. Lauby et al. Effects of Pooling Weather Associated MAPP Bulk Transmission Outage Data on Calculated Forced Outage Rates. IEEE Transaction on Power Apparatus and Systems, V. PAS-103, No. 8, August
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