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1 Use #SMI and #Solar when mentioning today s webinar: U.S. Solar Market Insight: 2013 Year In Review Click to Tweet: Free public webinar today on the #Solar Market Insight Report 2013 Year in Review. Get all the highlights: #SMI March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 1

2 Antitrust Reminder As a trade association of competitors, SEIA must comply with federal and D.C. antitrust laws. Competitively sensitive matters cannot be discussed on this webinar, including product prices; sales terms or conditions; production levels; sales territories; marketing plans; industry forecasts; or bid terms. If any such topic is raised, SEIA will stop the conversation and, if necessary, end the webinar. For more information, SEIA s antitrust policy is available on its website: March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 2

3 Cory Honeyman Solar Analyst, GTM Research Shawn Rumery, Research Manager, Solar Energy Industries Association Will Lent, Research & Policy Analyst, Solar Energy Industries Association

4 Will Lent and Shawn Rumery March 6 th, 2014

5 About SEIA Founded in 1974 U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy 1,000 member companies from around the world Members from across 50 states Largest companies in the world as well as small installers Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power America Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in the U.S. by 2015 March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 5

6 Solar in America: Strong and Getting Stronger Nearly 143,000 American workers in solar more than double the number in 2009 at 6,100 companies across the country The value of U.S. solar installations was $13.7 billion in 2013, up from just $810 million in was the largest year ever for the U.S. solar industry, with 4,751 MW of PV installed, marking 41% growth over There were also 410 MW of CSP installed- another record mark. 13,000 MW of cumulative installed solar electric capacity, enough to power 2.2 million average American homes March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 6

7 U.S. Solar Business Locations March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 7

8 Solar Market Insight: 2013 Year in Review Detailed data on markets in top 30 states plus DC available in full report. Free executive summary provides national aggregate data on installations, pricing, manufacturing and demand forecasts. Full report for sale (50% discount to SEIA members) includes quarterly forecasts as well as detailed market segment and state data. March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 8

9 SEIA/GTM Research Partnership Industry need for up-to-date and reliable market data Market reports issued every quarter Member discount: benefit for SEIA members Reliable market intelligence Member discount makes SMI the most affordable market research available Data to support SEIA s advocacy mission SEIA-GTM conferences questions to research@seia.org or solaranalysts@gtmresearch.com March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 9

10 1,206 MW Installed in Q Largest Quarter in History March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 10

11 Record Quarters for All Three Market Segments March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 11

12 Over 445,000 PV Systems Operating in the US March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 12

13 Price Declines Driving Growth March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 13

14 Average Residential System Price - $4.59/W March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 14

15 Average Commercial System Price - $3.57/W March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 15

16 2013 State Performance March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 16

17 What to Expect For 2014 March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 17

18 U.S. Solar Market Forecast- PV Market to Grow by 26% in 2014 March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 18

19 U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment Quarterly Installations (MWdc) Q Q Q Q Residential Non-Residential Utility ,442 Total ,106

20 The Top 5 States Drove Majority of Growth Top 5 states accounted for 81% of all installations in ,850 MW from CA (all), AZ (all), NC (utility PV), MA (DG), and NJ (DG) Top 5 states in 2013 will once again be the same in 2014 But 50% of all states will add at least 20 MW in 2014

21 Residential Market: Fueled by Q4 Boom Key Figures 2013: 792 MW installed, up 60% year-over-year Q4 2013: 259 MW installed National Level Trends Evolving Channel Strategies Retail Outlets Competitive Electricity Suppliers Financial Innovations Securitization of residential PV assets Rising popularity of solar loans vs. third party ownership

22 Residential Market: State Level Analysis CA (410 MW): Growth amidst the depletion of CSI incentives 2H 2013: Consecutive 100 MW+ quarters AZ (72.3 MW): Demand pull-in amidst impending net metering reforms Rebates reduced to $0.10/W and funding then depleted in Q HI (85.4 MW): PV grid saturation challenges underlie market growth Sluggish approval of interconnection requests shifts growth from Q3 to Q4 ¼ of Oahu distribution circuits PV penetration > 100% minimum DTL 20% fewer PV permits pulled in 2013 than 2012 on Oahu

23 California: Unprecedented Growth Post-CSI Accounted for 52% of national residential market in 2013 Residential rebates are exhausted in PG&E territory, while SCE and SDG&E s incentives are in the final step Retail rate parity with only 30% ITC, net metering, and accelerated depreciation National level trends of financial innovation and evolving channel strategies on display

24 Non-Residential Market: Volatile 2013 Key Figures 2013: 1,112 MW installed, up 4% year-over-year Q4 2013: 405 MW installed National Level Trends Highlighted by lumpy development cycles Higher sensitivity to incentive reductions than residential market Continued need to standardize access to financing NJ s downturn vs. Secondary Markets Expansion

25 Non-Residential Market: State Level Analysis CA (293 MW) and AZ (58.1 MW): Incentives targeting school and government projects lead growth MA (177.7 MW): Largest quarter ever amidst rush to qualify under SREC I and private/public net metering caps SREC I Capacity Online: 410 MW Pipeline Eligible under SREC I: 262 MW (non-residential) NJ (188.8 MW): SREC price stabilization spurs market rebound in Q Markets on the Rise: NY (42.2 MW) NYSERDA s Competitive PV Program CT (22.6 MW) IOU s ZREC Programs

26 Utility PV Market: Top 10 Q4 Projects Completed Project Name Desert Sunlight PG&E - Phase I Developer Capacity (MWdc) State Power Offtaker First Solar CA Pacific Gas & Electric Topaz Solar Farm - Phase III First Solar CA Pacific Gas & Electric Campo Verde Solar First Solar CA San Diego Gas & Electric SunPower High Plains (California Valley Solar Ranch) - Phase IV & V Desert Sunlight SCE - Phase I Antelope Valley Solar I (Solar Star California XX) SunPower CA Pacific Gas & Electric First Solar 88.4 CA SunPower 65.5 CA Southern California Edison Southern California Edison Alamo - Phase 1 OCI Enterprises 47.1 TX CPS Energy Simon Solar Farm Silicon Ranch 38.0 GA Georgia Power Indy Solar Projects I-III Dominion 32.9 IN Indianapolis Power & Light Sol Orchard Imperial 1 Grupo T-Solar 25.0 CA Imperial Irrigation District

27 Capacity (MWdc) Gigawatt Growth vs. Pipeline in Decline 2013: 2,847 MW installed, up 58% year-over-year 1,442 MW installed in Q alone 30,000 25,000 U.S. Utility PV Pipeline 25,120 9 of the 10 largest PV projects currently online were completed or partially commissioned in ,000 15,000 Key Market Takeaways Completion of mega-scale projects with longstanding PPAs in place with the California IOUs Emergence of secondary wholesale DG markets 10,000 5, ,657 3,314 5,836 Operating Contracted (PPA Signed) Announced (Pre- Contract) In Construction Q4 2013: First time installations outpaced pipeline replenishment

28 2013: Legislative and Regulatory Roundup State Reform Regulatory Lever CA NEM and Rate Design Key Details AB 327 Fixed charges (up to $10/month) Flattening tiered rate structures New uncapped NEM program after July 1, 2017 or when predefined capacity limits are reached Length of grandfathering will depend on a reasonable expected payback period of the PV system based on the first year it came on-line. AZ NEM ACC Ruling Fixed charge of $0.70/kW/month Grandfathered in under old NEM program for 20 years if interconnection application submitted before end of 2013 GA Utility Procurement PUC mandates ASI (210 MW): 90 MW for projects up to 1 MW; 120 MW for large scale PV projects (1-20 MW) ASI Prime (525 MW): 425 MW of large scale PV (not capped at 20 MW) and 100 MW of wholesale DG MA Solar Carve Out State RPS Solar carve out expanded to 1,600 MW by 2020 MN Solar Carve Out State RPS 1.5% solar carve out by 2020 Community solar gardens, Solar*Rewards, 150 MW utility PV RFP, and VOST methodology finalized

29 Four Year PV Market Outlook Bullish Outlook for We expect continued strong, albeit moderate, growth across all market segments through 2016 Market Downturn in 2017 We expect a drop off in installations, partially due to pull-in demand in 2016 ahead of the Federal ITC s expiration The market would likely begin a recovery in 2018

30 Four Year PV Market Outlook Bullish Outlook for We expect continued strong, albeit moderate, growth across all market segments through 2016 Market Downturn in 2017 We expect a drop off in installations, partially due to pull-in demand in 2016 ahead of the Federal ITC s expiration The market would likely begin a recovery in 2018

31 Average Installed Prices Fall Year-Over-Year

32 U.S. Component Prices Recover in 2013 Q Q Q Q Q Polysilicon $19.88 $17.36 $19.00 $19.00 $20.20 ($/kg) Wafer ($/W) $0.23 $0.21 $0.22 $0.22 $0.23 Cell ($/W) $0.31 $0.32 $0.44 $0.42 $0.43 Module ($/W) $0.68 $0.64 $0.68 $0.70 $0.72

33 U.S. Concentrating Solar Update

34 Thank You and Contact Info Justin Baca, Director of Research Will Lent, Senior Analyst Shawn Rumery, Research Manager For more information about purchasing the full SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight: 2013 Year-in-Review report, please visit or Justin Freedman Contact: Cory Honeyman, Solar Analyst Contact:

35 Questions Please type your questions into the lower left corner of the window. Click the send button to submit. March 18, Solar Energy Industries Association 35