2010 Automotive Review Global Automotive Outlook

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1 Autofacts 2 Automotive Review Global Automotive Outlook 1 Global summary 7 Regional overview 61 Pure electric vehicles 75 Leading alliance group data 259 Summary powertrain data

2 Contents Global summary 1 Regional overview 7 North America market overview with sales and assembly European Union+EFTA market overview with sales and assembly East Europe market overview with sales and assembly Asia Pacific developed market overview with sales and assembly Asia Pacific developing market overview with sales and assembly South America market overview with sales and assembly Additional content 61 Pure electric vehicles: a long-term solution to sustainable transportation? Leading alliance group data 75 Assembly Capacity Summary powertrain data PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. PricewaterhouseCoopers and PwC refer to the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of PwCIL or any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind them in any way. No member firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another member firm s professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way. DT--69

3 Market Summary East Europe East Europe Despite a recent history of strong growth, East Europe has proved no more resilient to the global decline in vehicle demand than any other region. The region, which had posted an average annual assembly growth rate of % between 2 and 28 (peaking at in 24), saw a decline in assembly of more than 46% in 28. This development came against a background of rapid change in the economies that constitute the region. To some extent, all the major assembling countries of East Europe (Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) had enjoyed the fruits of economic stability, low interest rates, access to credit and the benefits of global trade (e.g. exports of both consumer goods and raw materials and energy). All this changed during the latter half of 28, as the effects of the global slowdown began to affect the economies of East European countries: Credit began to dry up, and exports declined. In Russia, the market had benefitted from economic growth driven by access to easy credit and the booming revenues from Russia s raw materials and energy exports. These fed into a rising economy: GDP grew 8.1% in 27. However, during 28 the economy began to contract and grew only 5.6%, then fell by 7.9% in 29. New car sales, which began to decline from May 28 and fell dramatically throughout 29, reflected the economic contraction. Indeed 29 sales, at fewer than East Europe light vehicle assembly 28 vs. 29 by quarter 1, , Q1 Q2 Q3 Q % Change (R-axis) - Source: PwC Autofacts 2 Q2 PricewaterhouseCoopers I 27

4 Market Performance EU+EFTA 29 s gain will be 2 s loss. The extent of 29 s volatility is clearly seen by the SAAR range of over 4m units compared to a normal range of 1 1.5m units. Whilst 2 is unlikely to see a repeat, volatility is still likely to be higher than normal as scrappge schemes end. Overall, we expect EU LV registrations of 14.98m units in 2. EU+EFTA car sales were slightly ahead of initial expectations in Q1 2, increasing by 9.5%, because of a number of factors. Those markets where scrappage schemes were in place but ending, such as Italy and the United Kingdom, saw strong growth as people rushed to benefit from the incentives. Germany saw a smaller-thanexpected contraction following the ending of its scheme last year, suggesting the overall market contraction in 2 may be less than initially feared. Finally, many markets which were not distorted by scrappage schemes in 29 got off to a strong start, illustrated by Belgium (+12.1%), Denmark (+12.8%), Sweden (+34.6%) and Norway (+57.4%). Taking WE first (EU15+EFTA), the second half of 29 was extremely strong, with the SAAR recovering to near-normal levels, because of the rush to benefit from the German scrappage scheme before funds ran out combined with the increasing impact from the UK and Spanish schemes, which did not start until midyear. Following a drop in January 2, primarily because of the removal of the scrappage boost from Germany, the SAAR recovered strongly in February and especially March. However, we do not anticipate this level of demand to be sustained, currently forecasting new car sales of about 12.7m units in WE. WE (EU15+EFTA) annual and SAAR forecast 23 2 (Millions) At present the upside potential appears to be outweighing the downside risk, with post scrappage scheme falls appearing less severe than anticipated and other WE market growth starting strongly. Jan 3 May 3 Sep 3 Jan 4 May 4 Sep 4 Jan 5 May 5 Sep 5 Jan 6 May 6 Sep 6 Jan 7 May 7 Sep 7 Jan 8 May 8 Sep 8 Jan 9 May 9 Sep 9 Jan May SAAR Annual Sales Sales Forecast Source: ACEA, Autofacts 2 Q2 PricewaterhouseCoopers I 19

5 Pure Electric Vehicles: The long-term solution to sustainable transportation? Introduction Pure electric vehicles (PEVs) have received plenty of public attention lately. The 29 Frankfurt Motor Show hosted many electric vehicles, such as Renault s zero emission fleet consisting of the Fluence, Kangoo, Twizy and Zoe, as well as Daimler s Blue Zero vehicles including plugin hybrid (PHEV), PEV and fuel cell variants. Furthermore, the 2 North American International Auto Show had its own Electric Avenue to showcase PEV developments by various suppliers and automakers. Global EV assembly scenario forecast Scenario range Baseline Source: PwC Autofacts 2 Q2 PricewaterhouseCoopers I 61

6 East Europe Platform Brand Nameplate Code Plant Country Autofacts I 2 Automotive Review Renault-Nissan: Assembly (s) 1111 Lada Oka 1111 Serpukhov Russia Lada Kalina 1117 Togliatti #1 Russia Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Argun Russia Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Izhevsk Russia Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Kremenchug Ukraine Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Lutsk Ukraine Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Togliatti #1 Russia Lada 1 1 Cherkasy Ukraine Lada 1 1 Kremenchug Ukraine Lada 1 1 Lutsk Ukraine Lada 1 1 Togliatti #1 Russia Lada Priora 217 Togliatti #1 Russia Lada Samara 28 Ilichevsk Ukraine Lada Samara 28 Togliatti #1 Russia Lada Samara 28 Ust-Kamenogorsk Kazakhstan Lada Niva 2121 Lutsk Ukraine Lada Niva 2121 Togliatti #1 Russia Lada Niva 2121 Ust-Kamenogorsk Kazakhstan D Nissan Teana J32 Vyborg Russia 1.5 F-ALPHA Nissan Pathfinder P61B Astana Kazakhstan.8 X65 Renault Clio Symbol L65 Bursa Turkey X65 Renault Symbol L35 Bursa Turkey X84/C Nissan X-Trail X84/C Astana Kazakhstan.4 X84/C Nissan X-Trail X84/C Vyborg Russia 1.3 X84/C Renault Fluence L38 Bursa Turkey 9.6 X84/C Renault Megane X84 Bursa Turkey X84/C Renault Megane LC B32 Bursa Turkey.4 PricewaterhouseCoopers I 115 X85/B Renault Clio X85 Bursa Turkey X85/B Renault Logan X9 Moscow Russia Total 1,167. 1, ,2.4

7 Engine fuel type Consumption of engines by fuel type is subject to regional variation. The share of diesel engines has been and will be the highest in the EU, accounting for more than 5 of the total consumption volume. Moreover, the share of alternative fuels will be comparatively low even in 213. Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa East Europe European Union North America South America Diesel Gasoline Hybrid Total volume (R-axis in millions of units) Source: PwC Autofacts 2 Q2 PricewaterhouseCoopers I 259

8 Regional Automotive Practice Lead Partners About PricewaterhouseCoopers PricewaterhouseCoopers provides industry-focused assurance, tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for our clients and their stakeholders. More than 163, people in 151 countries across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop fresh perspectives and practical advice. "PricewaterhouseCoopers" and "PwC" refer to the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of PwCIL or any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind them in any way. No member firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another member firm's professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way.' Our Automotive Practice More than 1,5 skilled PwC professionals comprise our global Automotive network, which is driven by eight Centres of Excellence to provide guidance, offer analysis, and deliver solutions to firms across the entire automotive industry value chain. Autofacts, PwC s industry-differentiating service offering, includes a global research team dedicated to delivering data analysis, assembly and capacity forecasting, and support to advisory services to our clients and their stakeholders. Regional Automotive Practice Lead Partners Global Richard Hanna richard.hanna@us.pwc.com North America David Breen david.j.breen@us.pwc.com Assurance Services Global Automotive Assurance Leader Rick Hanna richard.hanna@us.pwc.com Europe Harald Kayser harald.kayser@de.pwc.com South America Marcelo Cioffi marcelo.cioffi@br.pwc.com Tax and Legal Services Global Automotive Tax Leader Horst Rättig horst.raettig@de.pwc.com Central & Eastern Europe Matthew Pottle matthew.pottle@cz.pwc.com Asia Pacific Alan Yam alan.yam@cn.pwc.com Global Pricewaterhousecoopers Autofacts Leader Calum MacRae calum.j.macrae@uk.pwc.com Visit our website at PricewaterhouseCoopers

9 2 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. PricewaterhouseCoopers and PwC refer to the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of PwCIL or any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind them in any way. No member firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another member firm s professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way. DT--69