Updates on the Automotive Industry

Transcription

1 Updates on the Automotive Industry PwC Automotive 7. June 2017 Automotive Logistics 2017

2 Transformation of the automotive industry Updates on the Automotive Industry PwC Automotive PwC 7. June

3 1 Trends of the automotive industry The automotive sector is an industry of large numbers, broken down into smaller entities interconnected by logistics Global Light Vehicle Assembly (millions) 120 BRIC & ASEAN* 12,9m units (64% of the total growth) 8,1 2, , ,3 1,0 1,5 1,3 0,7 2, , ,6 88,3 92,2 CAGR** 2,9% +20,2m units Mexiko USA EU Russland Brasilien Indien China ASEAN Japan Sonstige 2023F Quelle: Autofacts Analysis, Autofacts 2017 Q2 Forecast Release *ASEAN = Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam **CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate 3

4 1 Trends of the automotive industry The vision is clear: The car of the future is eascy electrified autonomous shared connected yearly updated Picture source: Volkswagen 4

5 1 Trends of the automotive industry Numerous challenges mark the way to the future of the global economy and of the global automotive industry - mobility and welfare are connected Protectionism Brexit Reorganization of the relations between the UK and global markets USA possible protectionism of the American economy against other countries in consequence of the political changes since 2017 Political instability Migration streams lead to a global growing number of refugees and emigrants Long-term consequences are currently not foreseeable, but they could result in changes of economic growth Environmental factors Emissions political initiatives which should reduce smog in urban areas CO 2 -targets uncertain transformation path to ecofriendly powertrain concepts Industry transformation Changed consumer behavior especially for younger customers and as a result of a progressing digitalization Business model transformation Future business models are currently developed and tested 5

6 Europe sales updates Updates on the Automotive Industry PwC Automotive PwC 7. June

7 2 Europe as a sales market Uncertainty remains a risk factor that could undermine confidence in the months ahead and adversely affect European market EA & Top 5: Real GDP Annual Growth F (percentage change) United Kingdom EA & Top 5: Economic Sentiment Indicator (101 = long run average) 120 Spain 110 Italy Germany 100 France 90 Euro area - 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% F 2018F Source: IHS kit, European Commission (April 2017) Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 EA DE FR IT ES UK

8 2 Europe as a sales market Europe s new passenger car market maintains positive momentum in Q1 and still holds significant structural upside potential EU+EFTA: Rolling 12 Months Car Registrations (millions) EU+EFTA: New Car Registration Variance F (millions) year high ( ) 2017F year low ( ) Germany France United Kingdom Italy Spain Poland Czech Republic Rolling 12-Month Car Registrations Annual Registrations Source: ACEA, Autofacts Analysis 8

9 2 Europe as a sales market Autofacts expects light vehicle registrations to grow by +3.8% to 17.8m in 2017 with a perspective to higher sales driven by legislation impacts EU+EFTA: New Light Vehicle Registrations F (millions) 25 10% 20 6% 15 2% 10 (2%) 5 (6%) F 2020F 2022F Car Registrations LCV Registratons YOY Change (R-Axis) (10%) Source: ACEA, Autofacts Analysis 9

10 Europe as a production location Updates on the Automotive Industry PwC Automotive PwC 7. June

11 3 Europe as a sales market New products and continuous investments in plants are expected to keep utilization above 80% - capacity reductions are not on the horizon EU: Light Vehicle Assembly F (millions) % 20 3,4 4,8 5,8 4,7 4,1 5,4 4,7 4,5 3,6 3,7 3,6 3,5 4,1 3,7 3,9 3,9 3,8 80% 15 60% 10 18,8 17,4 14,7 16,2 16,9 16,0 16,1 16,8 18,1 18,7 18,9 19,3 19,4 20,2 20,2 20,2 20,2 40% 5 20% F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2017 Q2 Forecast Release 0% 11

12 3 Europe as a sales market The European alliance group configuration has become much more dynamic with the PSA/ GME takeover but also new overseas OEMs setting up Top 10 Alliance Groups 2016 vs 2023F (millions) 6 5,4 5,1 5 5% 4% 4 3% 3 3,1 3,3 2% 2 2,3 2,3 2,1 2,1 1,8 1,9 1,8 1,5 1,6 1,2 1,1 1,2 1,2 1,0 1% 1 0,7 0,6 0,7 0,5 0% 0 VW PSA (f) RN* PSA Daimler BMW FCA** Ford GM Hyundai Tata (JLR) F CAGR (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2017 Q2 Forecast Release *RN=Renault-Nissan **FCA=Fiat-Chrysler Automobile -1% 12

13 3 Europe as a sales market Alternative drivetrains will be the most important growth area in the foreseeable future up to substituting current business structures EU Powertrain: Alternative Engine Type Distribution 2016 vs 2023F (thousands) , ,4 EU Powertrain: Hybrid Distribution** 2016 vs 2023F (thousands) , , , , ,1 93, ,7 530, Increase Full Hybrid Increase Mild Hybrid Increase Plug-In Hybrid Alternative Engines Source: Autofacts 2017 Q2 Forecast Release, *BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, FCV = Fuel Cell Vehicle, **excl. BEV/FCV Increase BEV/FCV* 2023F Increase Diesel Hybrid Increase Gasoline Hybrid Alternative Engines 2023F 13

14 Brexit Whiter Britannia? Updates on the Automotive Industry PwC Automotive PwC 7. June

15 4 Brexit Whiter Britannia? In 2015 there was a massive revenue growth of 11.7% in UK s automotive sector But can this success story continue after the Brexit vote? +6.5% 2.63 million new cars registered in million vehicles in use in UK +4.7% +3.9% 1,587,677 cars built in ,227,881 vehicles exported in % +11.7% 2,368,477 engines built in import countries of vehicles out of British production +0.0% Source: SMMT +11.7% 71.6 billion UK automotive turnover 814,000 94,479 commercial vehicles built in 2015 people employed across UK Automotive +33.6% +5.7% 15

16 4 Brexit Whiter Britannia? With 2.3 million imported vehicles there are 85% more vehicles imported than exported a protective taxation policy would change this dramatically UK: Total imports and Top-4 exporting countries* 2010 (LV), 2015 (PC) (thousands) UK EU-27** Total import 1, , Russia USA Total Export 1, , RoW*** 2010 China Source: SMMT, Autofacts Analysis *Export shares only available for Passenger cars **excluding UK ***Rest of World

17 4 Brexit Whiter Britannia? In the worst examined case, vehicle production in the United Kingdom would decrease to 1.1 million units by 2023: no FTA and high exchange rate! UK: Light vehicle assembly scenarios (millions) 2,5 2,0 1,7 1,5 2,0 1,6 Turkey Scenario FTA* with EU & subsidies & low exchange rate New plants New R&D investment New hires South Korea Scenario FTA* with EU & high exchange rate Most likely under today s conditions Currently planned SOPs take place 1,0 0, F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 1,1 Brasil Scenario No FTA* with EU & high exchange rate Relocation of production capacity to other EU plants No investments in R&D Factory closures Source: Autofacts 2017 Q2 Forecast Release *Free Trade Agreement 17

18 4 Brexit Whiter Britannia? If decisions were taken today, it would be theoretically possible to shift 2/3 of United Kingdom s light vehicle assembly volume to the EU by 2020 Effort of assembly shifting to the continent (millions) 2,0 1,5 UK assembly share % Transfer to EU from UK Immediately feasible 1,0 49.3% Requires plant Refitting (1 years) 0,5 24.8% Brownfield Setup (2 years) 0, F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: Autofacts 2017 Q2 Forecast Release No equivalence Equal OEM Equal platform Equal vehicle 9.0% Greenfield Setup (3 years) 18

19 Thank you for your attention! Autofacts

20 Autofacts contact Christoph Stürmer Global Lead Analyst PwC Germany (Europe) T: E: 20

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22 Autofacts Dedicated to the Automotive Industry Autofacts The information contained in this report represents the culmination of proprietary research conducted by Autofacts, an analytical group within PwC. All material contained in this report was developed independently of any PwC client relationship and does not represent the firm s view as an auditor to any legal business entity. While every effort has been made to ensure the quality of information provided, no representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by PwC as to the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document does not constitute the giving of investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, PwC accepts no liability of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this document PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd., each of which is a separate and independent legal entity. Autofacts is a globally registered trademark of PwC. 22