SMMT Webinar Vehicle Production Outlook and Economic Forecast 21 June 2011

Transcription

1 SMMT Webinar Vehicle Production Outlook and Economic Forecast 21 June 2011 SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED SMMT, the S symbol and the Driving the motor industry brandline are trademarks of SMMT Ltd

2 Paul Everitt Chief executive SMMT SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 2

3 During presentations (10.30am 11am) everyone will be muted so that only the presenters will be heard. There will be a Q&A session straight after presentations (approx 11am). If you are experiencing any technical problems please call SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 3

4 Matthew Croucher PPVL, SMMT Economic setting SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 4

5 % change, yr-on-yr Inflation Firmer than expected, as commodity/fuel price climb CPI 3.3% 4.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% Headline inflation trends (Source ONS) 6% 5% CPI RPI 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% % SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 6

6 Influences on GDP growth and buyer confidence Uncertainty over economic setting. Monetary policy been accommodating (IR low and QE) and to remain so (IR may not rise till 2012). Government committed to spending cuts, and seen taxes rise. Unemployment concerns. Consumer confidence low and in need of a pick-up. Positives Manufacturing sector grown (forecast to rise 3.4% in 2011) Exports growing (forecast to rise 8.4% in 2011) Investment spending (forecast to rise 0.7% in 2011) SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 7

7 New car registrations, '000s UK new vehicle registrations New car demand constrained, down 7.3% Jan-May. Market to grow in Q3. Private demand to fall 11% in 2011, fleet/business volumes rising. UK new car registrations, by sales type rolling year totals (Source SMMT) Private Fleet/Business Private forecast Fleet/Business forecast Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 8

8 rolling year registration totals UK new vehicle registrations CV registrations recovering. LCVs to be 266,000 by 2012, HCVs to 45,000+. Growth at heavier end of LCV market and in HCVs from artics. Bus and coach registrations weak. UK new commercial vehicle registrations rolling year totals (Source SMMT) Vans <6T >=6T trucks Dec 2006 to date SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 9

9 Overseas markets EU car market down 0.8% Jan-May. Forecast to dip 1% over full year. EU destination for 65% of UK car exports in Market to grow 2.5% pa Growth in USA, China, Russia and India to be around 10% pa. Where now Where next. UK exports by destination in 2010 New car demand growth, average Japan South Africa Other Turkey China Russia India Russia China USA Other Europe EU27 Japan USA West Europe Global -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 10

10 Car production CV production UK vehicle production Output recovering post recession, although Japanese earthquake impacting. Positive news on investments to secure longer term outlook. UK vehicle production rolling year totals (Source SMMT/AutoAnalysis) UK Car and CV output volume annual trends - actual 1997 to 2010; forecasts to 2015 CARS CVs SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 11

11 Ian Henry Director, Autoanalysis European Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Production Outlook SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 12

12 Production footprints changing, volumes rising, VM confidence high... European vehicle production seems to be entering a new dynamic phase: Further investment in production facilities across Europe More changes to footprint geography Much less capacity cut than expected: Only two European plants have closed (GM Antwerp and Fiat Sicily) Long term doubts remain re Mitsubishi in Holland PSA has issued a denial re Aulnay closure European VMs prefer to adjust their manufacturing footprints rather than take decisive action to cut capacity as was the case in North America: Ford adding 2 nd car to Craiova, moving Transit Connect & Kuga to Spain Renault moving large cars to Douai; Sandouville focusing purely on vans SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 13

13 Production footprints changing, volumes rising, VM confidence high... New vehicle assembly capacity is still coming on stream Mercedes Hungary, Fiat Serbia, Ford Craiova, BMW Leipzig And the Chinese will start producing on Europe s fringes later this year Several H1/2011 announcements re growth in vehicle assembly in Russia: Ford, Fiat, GM and VW have all committed to new or expanded facilities of up to 300,000 upa each, in line with Russian regulation 166; Renault plans to take control of AvtoVAZ by end 2011 SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 14

14 Units Production Outlook overview Recovery started in Q1/10 and continued throughout 2010 and into H1/2011 Strong exports and new models led to major improvements in VM finances: French and German VMs reported record financials and sales volumes in 2010 and Q1/2011 By 2012, total production will be above 2007; further growth will come from Russia 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 European Car and LCV Production by VM Years LDV SAIC MG Aston Martin Saab Geely Volvo VW Group Toyota Tata JLR Suzuki Renault-Nissan-Dacia PSA Mitsubishi Hyundai-Kia Honda GM Ford Fiat Daimler BMW SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 15

15 2011 has seen a steady stream of good news for the UK auto sector Although UK car production fell 4.9% in May, ytd totals are 4.6% up over the first 5 months of 2011: UK engine production also rising, up 5.6% y-o-y for the 5 months to May Good news stories from volume and niche manufacturers: Nissan: 192mn for design, development and manufacture of new Qashqai; follows 420mn for production of Leaf and EV batteries BMW: 500mn at Oxford, Swindon and Hams Hall for Mini, pressings and engines; plus SOP in late 2011 of Mini Coupe JLR: > 2bn new UK sourcing for Evoque; plus production of CX75 supercar GM confirmed Luton factory will continue van production SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 16

16 2011 has seen a steady stream of good news for the UK auto sector Continued Aston Martin staring Cygnet production, transferring Rapide from Austria to UK MG will assemble two MG6 models in UK, with design and engineering also here Honda and Toyota will be back to normal production levels, post earthquake, by September All of which means UK production should reach 1.7mn in 2012, close to 1.9mn by 2015 and could be in the mn range in the 2 nd half of the decade SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 17

17 BMW 2010 was its 2 nd best-ever year in volume terms; reported modest profit growth from 4.8bn to 5.1bn, but revenue rose >19% to 61bn. Q1/2011 = record revenue, up >20%, with record global sales, >380,000; Asia up 50%, N America up 19%, but Europe up <10% - global sales up 25% in first 5 months of 2011, adding 2,000 employees in in 2011 Has met 2012 purchasing cost cutting target 1 year early On track to meet tough financial goals by 2012, aided by joint purchasing with Daimler and successful new model programme SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 18

18 BMW continued Switch to small cars, incl. EVs, underpins plan to reach global target of 2mn by 2020; new direction for BMW with launch of i sub-brand Strategy reinforced by extension of JV with PSA from petrol engines into hybrids and EV technology Expansion in China and USA to balance production equally between Germany and the Rest of the World investing 1bn in China Good news for UK - 500m investment for Mini factory, Swindon pressings and Hams Hall engine plant; 3 rd generation Mini to be made in UK SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 19

19 Daimler Strong financial performance in 2010, c 4.7bn euro profit vs. 2.6bn loss in 2009 Trend continued in Q1, 16.5% y-o-y revenue rise, doubling of net profit; Mercedes brand sales rose 11.5% in first 4 months of 2011 New model programme begins in earnest this year Reorientation to small cars, including JV with Renault, will be at heart of new Mercedes-Smart strategy; JV will include supply of Mercedes engines to Nissan s Infiniti brand Hybrid versions of all large models within 3 years Daimler also expects fuel cell technology to be cheaper than EVs Partnership with GAZ in vans will be the initial route into Russia, but car production in Russia is not currently planned SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 20

20 Fiat Accelerating integration with Chrysler now has majority control; full merger on track Ambitious model and platform sharing plans: Fiat 500 now made in Mexico, second Fiat model for Mexico imminent Unions finally agreed to reorganisation at Mirafiori to allow Jeep models to be made there Jeeps made in Italy for export to US! Fiat taking MPVs from Chrysler leading to end of Fiat-PSA French JV in MPVs and midsized vans (JVs with PSA in Italy and Turkey will continue) 300k upa plant in Serbia will be centre of MPV production, following c 800mn investment; trial build now under way Will make small van for GM in Turkey, expanding in Brazil New plant in Russia, for Fiat and Jeep models, planned capacity of 120,000 upa (less than original plans, but will also make engines in Russia, to replace reduced vehicle production plan SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 21

21 Ford European operations profitable in 2010 (were loss-making in 2009); Q1/2011 saw profits treble y-o-y Mid-June announced further reorganisation of manufacturing footprint: Wider range of B-segment cars in Romania B-Max trial build now under way, 2 nd model to be added Transit Connect and Kuga replacement in Spain 2 nd LCV to be added to Turkey Electric Focus in Saarlouis Agreement signed with Sollers in Russia to make 300,000 upa: cars, SUVs, engines and transmissions: Production should start later this year, split between Ford St Petersburg and two Sollers plants in Tatarstan. Sollers expecting to export finished vehicles to Europe SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 22

22 GM Likely to be loss-making, after restructuring costs, in 2011 Last stage of restructuring reached union agreement re job losses at Bochum reached Luton s future secured Freed up capacity in Spain by switching Combo van replacement to Fiat Tofas plant in Turkey Extra shifts in UK, Poland and Spain to meet demand for Astra and Meriva Russelsheim building Insignias for sale as Buick Regal until US production starts later in 2011; will take on some Astra production as well from Q3 New large Zafira to be sold alongside upgraded current Zafira New premium small car to be made in Eisenach, including full EV version Also planning expansion in Russia through a mix of growing its own plant (230k pa) and AvtoVAZ JV (120k pa) Opel brand to be exported beyond Europe SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 23

23 Honda UK and Turkish production arrangements will continue as now, for the foreseeable future Lost c22,000 units UK production post earthquake, expecting to make up lost production by year-end; normal production rate by September Hyundai-Kia Russian factory now in full production mode, 3-shifts, exporting to former CIS markets Swapping models between Czech & Slovak plants to balance utilisation; third shift to be added at Czech plant Mitsubishi Long term future of Born factory uncertain following decision to make Colt replacement in Thailand there; Outlander volumes alone unlikely to be sufficient to maintain plant SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 24

24 PSA Strong financial position, met 2010 targets, with a global sales record in 2010 (3.6mn) ; 1.5bn profit on revenue of 56bn Q1/2011 revenue up 10% y-o-y, but sales up just 1% - higher unit prices Recruiting 4,000 people in 2011 a clear sign of confidence 2011 will see enhanced focus on hybrids, EVs and moving upmarket with more Citroen DS brand SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 25

25 PSA continued JV with BMW in hybrids and EVs; JV with Fiat in PSA to end by 2017 Reorganising supplier arrangements 13 strategic suppliers will have 50% of PSA business; but PSA has also moved to reassure other suppliers of their continued importance! Extra shifts at Poissy and Valenciennes; has denied Aulnay is to close in short term but in the long run? New low cost brand with Changan for emerging markets confirmed SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 26

26 Renault-Nissan-Dacia Like PSA, now profitable Renault = 3.5bn profit in 2010, vs. 3.1bn loss in 2009 Q1/2011 saw 15% y-o-y revenue ruse New strategy to 2016 includes review of Nissan alliance capital structure in 2013; expecting to take control of AvtoVAZ this year Commitment to EVs becoming stronger Fluence EV now in production; Twizy and Kangoo EVs later in 2011, Zoe in 2012 SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 27

27 Renault-Nissan-Dacia continued JV with Daimler will be very important in new strategic plan, first in small cars, followed by Mercedes supplying engines for Nissan s Infiniti brand Record 2010 production at Nissan UK; next generation Qashqai to be made in UK, 192mn investment, following 420mn for Leaf EV and battery plants Nissan Spain confirmed investment in vans and pick-ups going down a partially independent path in LCVs (not involved in Trafic replacement) Dacia success continues new Moroccan factory to have 400,000 upa capacity within four years, although North African/Middle East turmoil could slow down growth here SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 28

28 Tata - JLR All three UK assembly plants will be retained; looking to add own engine plant JLR very profitable in 2010/11, > 1bn; boosted by contract to supply 40,000 vehicles in China New model programme at LR accelerating Range Rover Evoque launched, boosting employment and UK suppliers; more Range Rover branded products to be introduced, more Jaguar variants expected Production in China within 3 years; Indian CKD assembly started Q 2/2011 SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 29

29 Toyota Major recall problems still affecting company globally uncertainty now following earthquake; overtime already stopped in UK Auris production to be concentrated in UK; Corolla sedan expected for Turkey; 2nd European hybrid confirmed for French factory Expansion of Russian plant also expected JV with Sollers for low volume SUV assembly Still losing money in Europe and Japan; N America, Russia and other emerging markets ensure group was still profitable; likely to suffer significantly owing to earthquake/tsunami impact SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 30

30 VW group, incl. Porsche Record sales in 2010; record profits too, up >7x to > 7bn in 2010; Audi, Skoda and VW especially profitable, Seat still loss-making Q1/2011 saw 14% volume rise, and 7.3% revenue rise operating profit up 3.4x Most 2010 and Q1/2011 growth was in Asia: Russia, China and entire Asia-Pacific region sales grew by c40% in 2010; China is now Audi s largest market Q1/2011 = c15% y-o-y sales globally, but c25% in Asia-Pacific; >2m units worldwide in first 5 months of bn European investment programme announced for new models and modernisation & expansion of factories, including Seat receiving c 5bn to turn the plant around; 10bn in Chinese JVs by 2015 SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 31

31 VW group, incl. Porsche continued Extra shifts still required for Touran, Tiguan and most Audis Increasing capacity at Skoda; adding capacity in Russia through GAZ partnership, up to 110,000 upa and Kaluga factory will rise to 190,000 upa Expansion in South Africa and Mexico; Audi will make decision re US plant by 2015 German unions fear move of some Golf and Tiguan production to US Full merger with Porsche delayed until 2012 Cross-shareholding with Suzuki yet to show benefits SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 32

32 Geely Volvo Volvo new model programme should be clarified at Frankfurt motor show Most new models to be made on new flexible platform 2 new Volvo plants in China, and Geely will ultimately produce in Europe; first new Volvo plant in China should be operational by extra employees at Volvo Europe s two plants Profits rising under Gaily ownership Saab Viability as independent company has been questioned, but Chinese investors may well have saved company, although production is still not back to normal Needs new 93 as soon as possible and for this to be a much bigger success globally than preceding model Other Chinese arriving in Europe Chery s Turkey factory should begin production by end 2011, 200k by 2015 Great Wall starts production in Bulgaria in Q3, 50k upa initially MG restarting low volume production in the UK SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 33

33 In conclusion... Strong production growth in 2010 underpinned by new models, last phases of scrappage schemes and exports & production beyond Europe Q1 has shown continued strong growth, better than previously expected Some German plants and even some here in the UK are working at close to capacity Outlook assumes no double dip recession and that Japanese production losses are made up by year-end, or demand taken up by competitors Overcapacity issue remains, with decisions on plant closures delayed this issue will come back to haunt the industry, especially with expansion of production in Russia, China and elsewhere SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 34

34 conclusion... Many VMs, eg Fiat, Ford, GM and VW are expanding in Russia ultimately this will limit export potential from Europe. Will the demand to produce locally outside Europe (including in US) restrict European production and bring the capacity issue to the fore again? Implications for suppliers are significant increasingly they will need to follow VMs while also seeing potentially reduced or limited growth potential in Europe SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 35

35 Questions and Answers Please click on the hand symbol to raise your hand if you have a question. Please ensure that you are connected to the audio to ask a question. Alternatively, you can type your question. memberservices@smmt.co.uk with your questions after this session. Slides available after the event at THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 36