Status of Power Electronics Industry 2015

Transcription

1 From Technologies to Market Status of Power Electronics Industry 2015 Sample February 2015

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Report Objectives 4 What is in this report 5 Glossary 8 Executive Summary 9 Power Electronics Basic Concepts 29 What are Power Electronics used for? 32 PE Market Wafer Market 58 Device Market 64 Inverter Market 71 PE Technology Overview 75 Raw Materials 77 IGBTs Technology 86 PE Applications Overview 138 PV Inverters 140 Wind Turbines 147 T&D 154 EV/HEV 163 Rail Traction 172 UPS 180 Industrial Motor Drives 187 Key Players & PE Supply Chain 196 PE Future Challenges 218 Annex 223 Yole Presentation 226 SJ MOSFETs Technology 98 SiC FETs Technology 106 GaN HEMTs Technology 117 Power Packaging 130 2

3 COMPANIES CITED IN THE REPORT ABB, Alstom, Amphenol, Amsc, AnsaldoBreda, BAIC, Baldor, BMW, Bolloré, Bombardier, Bosch, BYD, CAF, Chilicon Power, Continental, Converteam, CREE, CSR, Curamik, Daimler Chrysler, Danfoss, Delphi, Delta Energy Systems, Denso, DTW elektronika, Dynex, Eaco, Eagtop, Eaton, Emerson Liebert, Enecsys, Enercon, Enphase Energy, Envision, Fairchild, Ford, Fuji Electric, EPC, EpiWorld, Gamesa, GaN Systems, General Electric, GeneSiC, Goldwind, Hitachi, Holy Stone Polytech, Honda, HYUNDAI heavy industries, Icemos, Idealec, ienergy, Infineon, Ingeteam, International Rectifier, Involar, Iveco, IXYS, KACO new energy, Kawasaki, LAAS-CNRS, Leroy Somer, LS Power Semitech, MasterVolt, MCB, Mersen, Methode, MicroGaN, Microsemi, Mingyang, Mitsubishi Electric, Multi Contact, New Flyer, Nissan, Nordex, NXP, Omron, ON Semiconductor, Panasonic, Parker, Powdec, Powerex, Powersem, Poseico, Positronic, PSA, Raytheon, Renault, Renesas, RFMD, Rockwell Automation, Rogers Corporation, Rohm, Schneider Electric, Samsung heavy industries, SanKen, SanRex, SBE, Semikron, Semisouth, SEPSA, Shindengen, SICC, Siemens, SMA Solar Technology, SMBE, Sinovel, SolarMax, STMicroelectronics, Sungrow, Tabuchi, TDK, TE connectivity, Tesla Motors, TMEIC, Toshiba, ToyoDenki, Toyota, Transphorm, TYSTC, United Power Technology, Vacon, Vestas, Vincotech, VisIC Technologies, Vishay, Volvo, WDI, Yaskawa, Yutong 3

4 OVERALL POWER ELECTRONICS MARKET value chain analysis: system, device, wafer The power electronics market perspectives are very optimistic with a CAGR superior than 6% for the period Electronics Systems $xxxx B Power Inverters $xxxx B Semiconductor power devices (discrete and modules) $11.5 B Power wafers $xxxx B CAGR: +2% CAGR: +6.1% CAGR: +6.9% CAGR: +xx% Electronics Systems $xxxx B Power Inverters $xxxx B Semiconductor power devices (discrete and modules) $17.2 B Power wafers $xxxxb 4

5 WAFER MARKET FORECAST Market size split by diameter The 6 (150mm) wafers are the most sold ones, but 200mm wafers will considerably increase its market share 5

6 INVERTER MARKETS AND DRIVERS The overall inverter market in 2014 exceeded the $xx B Drivers for inverter innovation Size reduction Weight reduction Efficiency improvement Cost reduction Inverter markets* PV inverter $xx B +2.2% EV/HEV $xxxx B +15% Rail traction $3.3 B +5.2% Wind turbines $2.7 B -2.1% UPS $10 B +0.9% Motor drives $xxx B +8% Drivers for application growth Increase of CO 2 emission taxes Demand and regulations for clean energy generation Need for mass transportation Need for efficient transportation Regulation on energy efficiency Data center and data storage market increase Utility grid stress increasing due to the use of clean energy Depending on applications And others * In

7 FOUR MAIN DEVICES FOR POWER ELECTRONICS SILICON SJ MOSFETs COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTORS GaN HFETs We do a focus on the four main recent technologies in this report Production status in 2014: mass production Market size in 2014: ~$xxxxm Main players involved: Infineon, STMicroelectronics, Toshiba, Fairchild, Vishay Main applications: Laptop adapters, xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, Power range: up to 20 kw Voltage range: up to xxxxv IGBT Production status in 2014: mass production Market size in 2014: $xxxxm Main players involved: Infineon, Fairchild, STMicroelectronics, Toshiba, Mitsubishi, Fuji Electric Main applications: PV inverters, rail traction, EV/HEV, UPS, motor drives, wind turbines, medical, Power range: From 1 kw to few hundreds kw Voltage range: from 300 V to xxxx kv Production status in 2014: early stage of production Market size in 2014: ~$xxxxm Main players involved: IR, EPC, GaN Systems, Transphorm, Freescale, Infineon, Fuji Electric, Powdec, SanKen, Renesas, etc. Main applications: xxx xxxx (not yet), xxxx(not yet), xxxx, xxx. Power range: up to 100 kw Voltage range: up to xxxx V SiC FETs Production status in 2014: growing stage of production Market size in 2014: $xxxxm Main players involved: CREE, Infineon, Powerex, Rohm, Microsemi, GeneSic, STMicroelectronics Main applications: xxxx (for diodes), xxxx, xxxx (not yet), xxxx (not yet), xxxxxx (for switches) Power range: 10 kw to MW range Voltage range: 1.2 kv to xxxkv (up to xxx kv so far) 7

8 Product range SEMICONDUCTOR EVOLUTIONS Power device technology positioning GaN GaN SiC Yole Développement - December 2014 MOSFET WBG devices are primarily positioned in high-end applications Triacs Bipolar IGBT Thyristor IGCT 200 V 600V or less Voltage 1200V or more 3.3kV and more 8

9 IMPLEMENTATION OF SiC MATERIALS IN POWER ELECTRONICS Diode Switch Today Confirmed PV inverters SiC diodes today are already in production, mainly coupled with IGBT technology. Confirmed Wind turbines EV/HEV Penetration of SiC in Wind turbines will happen xxxx. For all other segments, Yole Développement roadmaps have been confirmed. Use of SiC in industrial motor drives is still unclear. Confirmed Confirmed Rail traction UPS Industrial motor drives

10 IMPLEMENTATION OF GaN MATERIALS IN POWER ELECTRONICS Characteristics of GaN-based inverters will be: They will primarily target medium voltage applications (in the V range) GaN targeted applications will be very different from SiC, at first. We will observe a competition in xxxx. For the EV/HEV, xxxxxxx. Today PV inverters EV/HEV Wind turbine GaN devices are excluded from high-voltage applications such as wind turbines and rail traction. UPS Rail traction Industrial motor drives PFC/Power supplies Confirmed Small DC/DC converters Wireless chargers

11 SJ MOSFET PLAYERS Who does what? Super junction MOSFET Several new players have arrived, and they will bring more competition in this market Multiple epitaxy + implantation Production R&D Buy & sell R&D Floating island Production Production Deep trench + epi filling Deep trench R&D Deep trench + implantation R&D

12 COMPETITIVE PACKAGING TECHNOLOGY Improvement aspects in packaging, with examples All applicable to Si and SiC Semikron Skin Many innovations are taking place in power module packaging Infineon.XT GE power overlay Delphi Viper apsi 3D module Semikron Ag sintering Die attach Die interconnection DBC + baseplate Includes cooling Lexus/Toyota modules: LS 600h Prius 2010 Danfoss Shower power Improvements in packaging can be made in 3 different aspects: Die interconnection, which is searching for innovative wire bonding or no-wires connection for better lifetime and reliability Die attach, which uses new materials for better lifetime DBC+baseplate, which uses new materials and suppress layers for improved cooling and smaller size 12

13 INVERTER MARKET FORECAST Description and market trends of each application are presented on this report 13

14 PV TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP Penetration strategy status 250 W 1kW 5kW 10kW 50kW 100kW 200kW 500kW 1,000kW New players are trying to find their position in the PV market Not yet established Inverter size In 2014, PV inverter manufacturers focused mainly on four target areas: 1. Microinverters (~250W) 2. Small-size (residential roofs) (3-10kW) 3. Medium-size inverters (20-50 kw) 4. Large inverters (500kW+) Wellestablished Establishment in the PV inverter business 14

15 WIND TURBINES MAIN PLAYERS LOCATION AND STRATEGY Goldwind = No1. in China in 2013 GE Wind = No1. in the US in 2013 Chinese players are rapidly growing within China and looking for foreign markets. Some Chinese players have chosen the strategy of JV with key EU technology players in order to speed-up their development. All players are looking for new market opportunities: some by developing large turbines in 6MW+ size for offshore applications other via focusing on promising new markets especially in South America. 15

16 ARCHITECTURES OF SMART POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS HVDC & FACTS DC Smart Power Distribution AC HVDC and FACTS fulfil the needs for more power management and long distance transmission Power systems technologies Power systems sub category Main silicon device in use: HVDC standard HVDC VSC / HVDC light SVC TCSC FACTS STATCOM SVC light Thyristors IGBT Thyristors IGBT HVDC : High Voltage Direct Current FACTS : Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System VSC : Voltage Source Converters ( IGBT Light is a brand of ABB) SVC : Static VAR Compensator (VAR: Reactive Power) STATCOM (SVC light) : Static Synchronous Compensator 16

17 EV/HEV SUPPLY CHAIN EVOLUTION Integration trends Discrete component Power module Inverter/converter Vehicles The description of the supply chain for each application can be found on the report Tough concurrence zone Chip makers Module makers Tier 1 Tier 1 et chip makers are willing to acquire power module manufacturing. Pure power module makers have to develop their competences to stay in the game. Car manufacturers Car manufacturers see electric motors as a know-how to master, and are capturing competencies from tier ones the goal is to manufacture the overall powertrain. Some car makers are also working on batteries to complete this value chain integration. 17

18 RAIL TRACTION SUPPLY CHAIN Dies IGBT modules Power Inverter Modules Train makers DYNEX s acquisition by CSR is an example of Asiatic vertical integration. 18

19 UPS POWER ELECTRONICS Component adoption for UPS inverters Power range Number of devices Topology Device voltage Low power UPS xxxx H-bridge topology Single phase xxxx IGBTs are and will be the most used devices in UPS Medium power UPS High power UPS xxxx xxxx IGBT rectifier 3 phase Cascaded H-bridge or NPC topologies IGBT rectifier 3 phase Multi-level topologies At the component level, we have observed two main trends: Adoption of power modules in opposition to power discrete devices, for the low power segment: xxxx xxxxx IGBT will be the most demanded device for UPS business within the next five years: xxxxxx xxxxxx 19

20 POWER ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS Europe and USA Asia Many other M&A examples are analysed on the report Diversification (also called horizontal integration): Vertical integration: Acquisition of competencies internally to build an overall system, for different motivations. To grasp the entire value chain margin To reach local markets also for some companies (example with CSR which bought Dynex in 2008 both to grasp EU market and outsourced Dynex s manufacturing) Outsourced manufacturing: Typically in Asia for low value levels of manufacturing Proposition of advanced R&D services - IMEC - APEI - Fraunhofer - PRIMES - GE Global Research Product consolidation Cost reduction Quality and reliability offers Domestic market protection and worldwide expansion 20

21 VERTICAL & HORIZONTAL INTEGRATION A technological need The main purpose of power electronics continue to be integration. Therefore, establishing interactions and synergy dynamics among different players is necessary so that knowledge can be shared and the overall system improved.acquisitions and partnerships are the key: Vertical integration helps reducing costs. Diversification takes profit of different synergies to get a more compact system. Capacitor Power stack backbone Capacitor+busbar assembly: Laminated busbar Can be extended toward IGBT stack/inverter assembly with cooling systems, and other components (Power modules, IGBT drivers ) IGBT stack/inverter assembly Power module Possible by mastering both technologies (examples: SBE and Methode Electronics, Eagtop ) Resistor Cooling system IGBT driver INVERTER 21

22 UP-FRONT INTEGRATION From chips to inverters Supplies to Expansion trend Many Japanese chip manufacturers have accessed higher added value markets Chip makers Power module makers Power discrete makers Inverter makers Passive makers System integrators Busbar and connector makers Drivers for this integration are: Technology development: access to new skills Partnering, developing sales network Access to higher added value markets Main risks are: Customers becoming competitors Access new technologies, especially at the inverter level Most concerned are Japanese players 22

23 FOCUS ON CHINA Vertical integration by Chinese companies: from toward to vertical backward Power Chip Power module Inverter System Wind turbines Huge Chinese companies are conquering their supply chain and their respective markets Strong R&D effort PV inverter EV/HEV Rail 23