Comparative analysis of EU practice in economic assessments and effects

Transcription

1 Sintropher Workshop April, 19th - Blackpool Comparative analysis of EU practice in economic assessments and effects first results on phase 2 report: Nottingham (UK), Bergamo (IT) and Saarbrucken (D) Sophie HASIAK Guillaume LEPERS Cyprien RICHER CETE Nord-Picardie Pôle de compétences et d'innovations CERTU «Transport du Quotidien» sophie.hasiak@developpement-durable.gouv.fr

2 Presentation s Plan Context 1st phase / State of art Results presented in September 2011, in Valenciennes 2nd phase / case studies in Europe : Experience feedback on the appraisal processes of the territorial effects of tram-based systems. Focus on the first results of three case studies : Nottingham, Sarrebruck and Bergamo Presentation Plan 1 - Context of the 3 tram-system 2 - First results : 1/ temporal approach 2/ spatial approach 3/ functional approach 3 - Conclusion / prospective Nottingham Express Transit [NET] Saarbahn Tranvia Bergamo-Albino

3 1 Context of the 3 tram systems : Nottingham Express Transit (NET) Saarbahn Tramvia Bergamo-Albino

4 Territorial context Similar demographic situations Nottingham -unitary authorities- County Nottinghamshire (Nuts 3) East midlands ; UK Sarrebrucken ; Regionalverband Saarbrücken -Landkreis- (Nuts3) ; Land Sarre ; D Population density 2008/ Nuts 3 Source : Eurostat map EuroGeographics Association Bergamo ; Provincia di Bergame (Nuts 3), Regione Lombardia, IT Nottinghamshire = Land Sarre = Province Bergame Approximately 1 million inhabitants Surface area km² Population density inhab/km²

5 Territorial context Industrial urban areas Demographic decline of central cities but incresae in population in the urban areas Development of urbain sprawl Brebach city in Saarbrücken Nottingham Urban Area inhab. City of Nottingham inhab. Landkreis Saarbrücken : inhab City of Saarbrücken : inhab. Area metropolitana Bergamo : inhab. City of Bergamo : inhab. 4 km 2 miles 4 km 2 miles 4 km 2 miles

6 Tramway systems Nottingham Express Transit Line 1 opened in km, 24 stops Saarbahn Line 1 opened in km, 16 stops Tranvia Bergamo-Albino Line 1 opened in km, 16 stops

7 2 First results

8 Approach used to present the results Part 2 Part 1 Methodological reminder Analysing the territiorial tramway effects through a three-dimensional graph. - Temporal dimension - Spatial dimension - Functional dimension Part 3 Hypothesis based on a differentiation of decision models - Economical logic in UK - Political logic in France - Technical logic in Germany Part 1- Temporal approach Part 2- Spatial approach Part 3- Functional approach

9 2 First results 2-1 Temporal dimension

10 Time scale project schedule Genesis of tram project Before the opening : «political conditions» of the project s implementation ; and the issue of ex-ante assessment Time 1/ from technical studies to local decision 1991 traffic studies 1992 local decision Saarbrucken Old tram closed in traffic congestion risk Nottingham Old tram closed in feasibility studies 1990 Amendment Salvoldi 1992 local decision Bergame Railway closed in 1967 Year

11 Time scale tram system choice The tram-based system choice : a compromise between risks and opportunities Time 1/ from technical studies to local decision Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergamo Risks Road network s congestion Economic risks Bus traffic increase (needing a more capacity of public transport means) traffic congestion on roads traffic congestion on the Valley s roads Public transport (bus) not efficient Opportunities Existing railway corridor between Nottingham and Hucknall with a broad floorspace Important railway network around the city center mostly electrified track Existing corridor of an old railway line «Ferrovia della Valle Seriana» closed in 1967 Response/ Tram system choice feasibility studies : Tram-train, Bus Rapid Transit, Bus guided system Tramway s tramway considered as the most efficient Tram-Train Choice Not selected : light automated vehicle (too expensive and size of city too small) Objective to have a rapid transit system, compatible with the old railway : tramway choice End of the 1980 s in Saarbrücken: buses are slowed by traffic congestion

12 Time scale project schedule Genesis of tram project Before the opening : «political conditions» of the project s implementation ; and the issue of ex-ante assessment Time 1/ from technical studies to local decision Time 2/ from local decision to start of works 1991 traffic studies 1992 local decision 1993 Land and ministry opinion 1995 Approval of subsidies by Land and Ministry Saarbrucken Old tram closed in traffic congestion risk Nottingham 1990 feasibility studies 1994 Greater Nott. Rapid Transit Tender and consortium selection ex-ante assessment 1998 Approval of funding by DfT 2000 Financing finalization Old tram closed in Amendment Salvoldi 1992 local decision Final project, project Approval by the Ministry 2002 Start of work Bergame Railway closed in 1967 ex-ante assessment Year

13 Time scale The project validation Stakeholders strategy and project funding Time 1/ from technical studies to local decision Time 2/ from local decision to start of works Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergamo Local initiative Nott. Development Enterprise + Nott. City + Nott. County feasibility studies on transport system City of Saarbrücken decision in favor of introducing a tram-train Amendment Salvoldi- Province of Bergame Proposition of transport system Intent Validation Finalization Economic discourse Diagram of the broadening of the actors interest and project aims Transport aims ex-ante assessment Transport discourse Environnemental discourse social discourse... Maturation time of the project

14 Time scale The project validation Bergamo : ex-ante assessment and discourse CBA By province of Bergamo Source : Beria, Borlini, 2011/ Politecnico di Milano broadening the discourse : Project s appropriation by new actors Transportation aim : Reducing impact of road transport terriorial development aims : providing territorial accessibility. encouraging the socioeconomic development of the province, contributing to economic recovery Induced benefit (time saving) Tickets revenues Reduction cost of buses exploitation Cost of tram exploitation Cost investment Standard procedure of the 1990s especially ransport aspects No consideration of environmental benefits Quality of life aim : improving the quality of life, "environmental sustainability»

15 Time scale The project validation Stakeholders strategy and project funding Time 1/ from technical studies to local decision Time 2/ from local decision to start of works Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergamo Funding Selection of the contractholder «Arrow Light Rail Limited Ltd» funding s Approval by DfT DfT refunds 70% of investment ; 30% profit from operations = 250 M Government funding 60% Land Saar funding 30% + 10% local financing = 195 M Approval of funding Department for Transport 73 M (50%) Lombardie region 30 M (20%) 30% remaining : Province, Municipality, Commercial association =155 M

16 Time scale project schedule Genesis of tram project Before the opening : «political conditions» of the project s implementation ; and the issue of ex-ante assessment Time 1/ from technical studies to local decision Time 2/ from local decision to start of works Time 3/ from start of works to opening 1991 traffic studies 1992 local decision 1993 Land and ministry opinion 1995 Approval of subsidies by Land and Ministry 1997 tram-train Opening Saarbrucken Old tram closed in traffic congestion risk Nottingham 1990 feasibility studies 1994 Greater Nott. Rapid Transit Tender and consortium selection ex-ante assessment 1998 Approval of funding by DfT 2000 Financing finalization 2004 Tram opening Old tram closed in Amendment Salvoldi 1992 local decision Final project, project Approval by the Ministry 2002 Start of work work stops 2006 workd resumes 2009 tram opening Bergame Railway closed in 1967 ex-ante assessment Year

17 Time scale Governance Governance and tram exploitation Time 1/ from technical studies to local decision Time 2/ from local decision to start of works Time 3/ from start of works to opening Governance of the project Public-private partnerships 1994-Greater Nott. Rapid Transit 2000-Consortium choice «Arrow Light Rail Limited Ltd» Consortium partners : Transdev, Nott. City Transport, Bombardier, Craillion, Galaxy, Innisfree Stadtbahn Saar GmbH Responsible for the planning and the realization of the project property : 95% VVS (local authority of transport) 2000-creation of «TEB» Tramvie Elettriche Bergamasche Property by the Province and municipality charged to urban planning, to build, and explotation of the new tram line Works duration Approximately 3 years Approximately 2 years Approximately 3 years Over 6 years period to stop work cancellation contract undertaken Commercial exploitation Nottingham Tram Consortium (Transdev ) since 2011 : Tramlink Nottingham Consortium (Keolis...) 1996-creation of Saarbahn, Transport company for exploitation of the line ; Responsible tariffing, schedules, staff and marketing exploitation of the line by TEB ATB partners (exploitation of the bus network)

18 2 First results 2-2 Spatial dimension

19 Lines with «two territorial faces» Nottingham Express Transit Ligne 1 open on km, 24 stops Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Saarbahn Ligne 1 open on km, 16 stops Tranvia Bergamo-Albino Ligne 1 open on km, 16 stops

20 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Double face of the line : urban and suburban environment Line in dense urban environment 5 km, 11 stops Interstations : 500 m Frequency : 5 min Average speed : 18 km/h Ticket price : 1.70 / km, 10 stops Interstations : 550 m Frequency : 7,5 min Average speed : 19 km/h Ticket price : 2,40 4 km, 8 stops Interstations : 550 m Frequency : 6 à 15 min Average speed : 22 km/h Ticket price : 1,20 Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergamo Line in suburban environment 9 km, 11 stations Interstations : 900 m Frequency : 10 min Average speed : 39 km/h Ticket price : 1.70 / km, 8 stations Interstations : 2000 m Frequency : 15 à 30 min Average speed : 54 km/h Ticket price : 3,20-4,20 9 km, 9 stations Interstations : 1000 m Frequency : 6 à 15 min Average speed : 29 km/h Ticket price : 2,70

21 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Double face of the line : urban and suburban environment Line in dense urban environment 5 km, 11 stops Interstations : 500 m Frequency : 5 min Average speed : 18 km/h Ticket price : 1.70 / km, 10 stops Interstations : 550 m Frequency : 7,5 min Average speed : 19 km/h Ticket price : 2,40 4 km, 8 stops Interstations : 550 m Frequency : 6 à 15 min Average speed : 22 km/h Ticket price : 1,20 Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergamo Line in suburban environment 9 km, 11 stations Interstations : 900 m Frequency : 10 min Average speed : 39 km/h Ticket price : 1.70 / km, 8 stations Interstations : 2000 m Frequency : 15 à 30 min Average speed : 54 km/h Ticket price : 3,20-4,20 9 km, 9 stations Interstations : 1000 m Frequency : 6 à 15 min Average speed : 29 km/h Ticket price : 2,70

22 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Different type of urban insertion of the tram open platform : share with other circulation Possible across tram route Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergame urban environment Perméabilité essentiellement Tram-train shared avec with pedestrian piéton suburban environment closed platform : Impossible across tram route Ligne Railway type : ferroviaire, impossible traversée across impossible platform

23 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Different type of urban insertion of the tram open platform : share with other circulation Possible across tram route Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergame urban environment Perméabilité Tramway essentiellement shared with avec car piéton suburban environment closed platform : Impossible across tram route Ligne type ferroviaire, traversée impossible

24 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Different type of urban insertion of the tram open platform : share with other circulation Possible across tram route Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergame urban environment Perméabilité essentiellement avec piéton suburban environment Platform closed closed platform : Impossible across tram route Ligne type ferroviaire, traversée impossible

25 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various levels of relationship to the railway network Systematic use of opportunities but in a contrasted way : Nottingham/ Cohabitation tram along the East midlands railway on 9 km: possible synergy (2 common stations) but not new axe and possible competition betwenn tram and train on the connection Nottingham-Hucknall Saarbrücken/ Intégration Technology tram-train on the Karlsruhe model. Integration of the system exploitation and rolling stock (bi-courant) but substitution of the service of transport (replacement of the trains by tram-trains) Tram along the railway betwenn Wilkinson Street and Hucknall Bergamo/ Substitution the whole tram line is positioned in the corridor of the old metric railway (railway of the Seriana valley closed in 1967)

26 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various levels of relationship to the railway network Systematic use of opportunities but in a contrasted way : Nottingham/ Cohabitation tram along the East midlands railway on 9 km: possible synergy (2 common stations) but not new axe and possible competition betwenn tram and train on the connection Nottingham-Hucknall Saarbrücken/ Intégration Technology tram-train on the Karlsruhe model. Integration of the system exploitation and rolling stock (bi-courant) but substitution of the service of transport (replacement of the trains by tram-trains) From tram to train Brebach/ site of putting up of the tram-trains Tram along the railway betwenn Wilkinson Street and Hucknall Bergamo/ Substitution the whole tram line is positioned in the corridor of the old metric railway (railway of the Seriana valley closed in 1967)

27 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various levels of relationship to the railway network Systematic use of opportunities but in a contrasted way : Nottingham/ Cohabitation tram along the East midlands railway on 9 km: possible synergy (2 common stations) but not new axe and possible competition betwenn tram and train on the connection Nottingham-Hucknall Saarbrücken/ Intégration Technology tram-train on the Karlsruhe model. Integration of the system exploitation and rolling stock (bi-courant) but substitution of the service of transport (replacement of the trains by tram-trains) From tram to train Brebach/ site of putting up of the tram-trains Tram along the railway betwenn Wilkinson Street and Hucknall Bergamo/ Substitution the whole tram line is positioned in the corridor of the old metric railway (railway of the Seriana valley closed in 1967) Bergamo/ re-use of the existing/ old corridor

28 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various forms of intermodality (except central station) Nottingham P+R tram Saarbrücken Bergame Large P+R (Park and Ride) with strategic localizations (terminus or partial terminus) and marketing to encourage modal transfert

29 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various forms of intermodality (except central station) Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergame P+R tram Tram + train Interchange stations of Hucknall and Bulwell which connect the tram, the train, the buses and P+R Hucknall Large P+R (Park and Ride) with strategic localizations (terminus or partial terminus) and marketing to encourage modal transfert Bulwell

30 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various forms of intermodality (except central station) Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergame Small and functional interchange station between the tram-train and public transports with modest P+R (20 to 100 places)

31 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various forms of intermodality (except central station) Nottingham Saarbrücken Brebach interchange station Bergame P+R 90 pl. Saarbahn Station Small and functional interchange station between the tram-train and public transports with modest P+R (20 to 100 places) Buses station

32 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various forms of intermodality (except central station) Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergame P+R of mean size (70 to 150 places) and bicycle to many stations, Interchange with bus After Example of small P+R of 50 places in Ranica Before

33 Spatial dimension : focus on the corridor of the line Various forms of intermodality (except central station) Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergame P+R of mean size (70 to 150 places) and bicycle to many stations, Interchange with bus Albino Terminus, intermodal station Side city : station of interuban buses Side highway : P+R 155 places Bicycle and motor bike 100 places After Example of small P+R of 50 places in Ranica Before

34 2 First results 2-3 Functional dimension

35 Functional dimension transport Frequentation of the line: forecast with reality Nottingham Saarbrücken Bergamo Patronage forecasts 1st year = de 5,5 à 8,3 Mp./year ; final forecasts : 11 M Forecast : p./jour 1 st forecast : à p./day (1994) recent forecast corrected : à p./day (2007) Survey results 2004 (1st year) : 8,2 M 2006 : 10,1 M Represents 92% of the final patronage forecasts 1998 (1st year) : p./jour 2007 : 11,5 M/year Represents 112% of the patronage forecasts 2009 (1st year) : p./day 2010 : p./day Represents 70% of the patronage forecasts (2007) Saarbrücken : the opening of Saarbahn, a significant impact on the frequentation of all the network Bergame : forecast error but traffic rising/on the increase Nottingham : objectives of frequentation progressive quickly reached

36 Functional dimension Urban regeneration Focus on Hucknall (Nottingham Express Transit) Nottingham Express Transit route

37 Functional dimension Urban regeneration Housing development at Hucknall, since 2001 to 2007

38 Functional dimension Urban regeneration

39 Functional dimension Urban regeneration

40 Functional dimension Urban regeneration

41 Functional dimension Urban regeneration

42 Functional dimension Urban regeneration

43 Functional dimension Urban regeneration

44 Functional dimension Urban regeneration

45 Functional dimension Urban regeneration New housing development Work in progress, 2012 Housing development, 2008 Photo : CETE Nord- Picardie, april 18th 2012 Retail site, 2008 Housing development, 2007