ASSESSING TERRITORY READINESS FOR AUTONOMOUS TRANSPORT SERVICE AND EVALUATING MARKET SIZE. N. Faul S. Sadeghian B. Créno

Transcription

1 ASSESSING TERRITORY READINESS FOR AUTONOMOUS TRANSPORT SERVICE AND EVALUATING MARKET SIZE N. Faul S. Sadeghian B. Créno

2 PRT: AN UPCOMING TRANSPORT MODE 2 On half-way between the private car mode and the conventional public transport FEATURES 1. Small, electric & driverless vehicles 2. Reserved guideway high commercial speed, minimum in-vehicle time guarantied 3. Direct, Origin 2 Destination, On-demand service minimum in-vehicle time and minimum waiting time guarantied 4. Small but numerous off-line stations fluid traffic and high flexibility of the network CyberCab, Masdar UAE Ultra, Heathrow, UK

3 ASSESMENT METHODOLOGY Filters setup 3 Study area at macro level Methodology : Apply filters to identify distinctive classes of study areas Find potential areas First indicator: - Net population density - Human activity density - Public transport usage Transport demand Transport needs Second indicator: - Structural network - Strengths and weaknesses of the existing networks and services Transport supply

4 Net Density 4 Net density map (inhab/living km2) in Paris Region (IRIS dataset INSEE)

5 Economic Activity 5 Active population MODUS Zones Dataset (INSEE)

6 Trip generation 6 Morning peak hours Ile de France TransCAD dataset

7 Trip generation 7 Off peak hours Ile de France TransCAD dataset

8 Results 8 Relevant criteria Density of activity between 8,000 et 20,000 per km² Distance towards structural public transport axes Future station of Grand Paris Express Level of congestion of the structural road network

9 Grand Paris Express : an outstanding opportunity to test innovative feeder systems 9

10 Crossing the criteria : activity, access to public transport, GPE stations, congestion 10 TransCAD dataset

11 Weakness of the public transport network in forks 11 TransCAD dataset

12 Main overall results 12 5 potential areas with diverse characteristics : Saint-Denis : high density, several railway stations Vélizy-Villacoublay : big activity zone, lack of public transport, high congestion Plateau de Saclay : developing rural zone, future high technology cluster, future Grand Paris Express station Chatou Sartrouville : dense housing area, fork of the express regional train network (RER A) Noisy-Champs : campus and housing area, strong development, future Grand Paris Express station.

13 Additional criteria : the economic sustainability of the service 13 According to CERTU (2012), in France, the revenue of the bus lines covers, in average, between 19% and 35% of the operating costs. The rest of the expenditures is covered by various balancing subsidies from the transport and local authorities. Thus, there is practically no business development strategy behinds these services. These transport systems essentially provide a social service to a non-motorized population (CAS, 2012) Environmental performance is under uncertainty : high correlation with the occupancy rate Indicators PT on reserved lanes Structural bus lines Peripheral bus lines Total network Transport supply share 15% 50% 35% 100% Revenue/passenger Passengers/ km Average cost/km Revenues/costs 94% 38% 15% 42% Cost/passenger Local authorities contribution/ passenger

14 Additional criteria : systemic approach and stakeholders criteria 14 Stakeholders in the transport system Should be integrated : Public interested, through communities Global optimization of public transport systems Social impacts Impact on road congestion Social acceptation Innovation and impact on the image of the territory Stakeholders in the industrial system

15 PRT : ST. CYR-SATORY EXAMPLE FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT / COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS 15 M Service type Bus PRT Operating + capital depreciation costs per km ( ) for suburban areas 1.3 Operating + capital depreciation costs per passenger ( ) * The revenue covers almost 34% up to 39% of the operator s total charges (vs. 15%) Assuming 15% more clients & the same transport fare, the revenue of the system can cover up to 44% of the charges. Thanks to the electric motorization : avoiding the emission of about tons of CO 2 at the local level! * Mainly due to reduction on the driver cost

16 Global results 16 Potential market for Ile de France : up to vehicles Système BHNS Tramway PRT* Coût d un véhicule 300k à 900k 1,5M à 3M 140 k Coût d investissement (sans 2 à 10 M /km 13 à 22 M /km 3,5 M /km le coût des véhicules) Durée de vie des matériels 15 à 30 ans 30 à 40 ans Environ 15 ans Coûts d exploitation 3,5 à 5 M /km 5 à 7 M /km 7 M (dépend peu du nombre de km) * For a 6 to 9 passengers vehicle Cost comparison of buses, Tramways and PRT vehicles

17 Next steps and conclusion 17 - From this study, we have started a study of the areas at a micro level to check - Consistency of results - Sustainability of operations from a transport operator point of view - Requires a real demonstration to validate the hypotheses

18 Thank you for your attention 18 This study has been carried out with the cooperation and resources of Laboratoire Villes Mobilité Transport (LVMT) VEDECOM would like to thank Fabien Leurent for his support. Contact : nadege.faul@vedecom.fr