AUTONOMOUS & CONNECTED VEHICLE (ACV) READINESS. CCOG Annual Conference

Transcription

1 1 AUTONOMOUS & CONNECTED VEHICLE (ACV) READINESS CCOG Annual Conference

2 CONVERGING TRENDS ARE SHAPING MOBILITY Population ACTUAL PREDICTED Population expected to grow by 70 million in next 30 years 75% of population concentrated in 11 Megaregions Demographics Americans are Living Longer By 2045, the number of Americans over age 65 will increase by 77%. About one-third have a disability that limits mobility. Millennials are Connected & Influential There are 73 million Americans aged 18 to 34. They drove 20% fewer miles in 2010 than at the start of the decade. Technology Integration of Connected & Automated Technologies Introduction of Shared Service Platforms Advancements in Energy Storage Technology Deeper Application of Big Data Faster Processing Speeds at Decreasing Cost

3 GREATER CHARLOTTE REGION, ACV WORKSHOP SERIES

4 AUTOMATED AND CONNECTED VEHICLE (ACV) WORKSHOPS - ACTIONS TO PREPARE THE GREATER CHARLOTTE REGION Workshop concept sprung from Regional Freight Mobility Plan 50+ participants per workshop Leading researchers, industry experts, best practice 1st region based dialogue on technology preparation, obstacles, solutions in NC Roadmap with actionable steps Transferable concept for state and national peers

5 WHAT DO YOU HOPE TO LEARN ABOUT THROUGH THE SERIES?

6 CCOG ACV WORKSHOP 1

7 WORKSHOP 2: BREAKOUT SESSION SHORT AND LONG TERM ACTIONS

8 WORKSHOP 3 RESULTS Workshop 3 included: Developing an Action Plan Action step matrix > ID obstacles, resources & opportunities Supports Creation of Preparedness Roadmap a call to action

9 ROADMAP PURPOSE Automated and Connected Vehicle (ACV) Roadmap Actions to Prepare the Greater Charlotte Region Includes specific near term actions that regional partners can take for ACV preparedness Given the pace of change w/ ACV technologies, action plan is a living document

10 ACTION PLAN KEY THEMES At a high level these actions include the following themes: Continue to convene regional leadership/partners to discuss issues and opportunities of new technologies, coordinate actions, and plans* Consider ACVs in planning studies and documents Take steps to update tools & evaluate ACV impacts Before making major capital investments E.g.- parking structures or road widenings consider possible implications of ACVs Continue to seek opportunities to educate and inform regional political leaders, agency leadership, and staff Be part of the state/national conversation on ACVs; provide regional perspective on ACV issues Identify opportunities to partner in pilot tests * The ACV Taskforce held its 1st meeting on March 2, 2018

11 TODAY S PANELISTS Joe Hummer, PhD, PE State Traffic Management Engineer, NCDOT Anna Gallup, PE Program Manager, Metrolina Regional Model Stacy Cook, AICP Senior Associate for Cambridge Systematics

12 Looking Ahead to Autonomous Vehicles Joe Hummer, PhD, PE, State Traffic Management Engineer For Centralina COG, April 12, 2018

13 Disclaimer Most of this presentation is my personal opinion, not NCDOT policy or NC law I will try to indicate when something is law or policy Graphics are property of rightful owners Do not reproduce graphics unless indicated that they belong to me or NCDOT No endorsement of any product is intended 13

14 Objectives How will AVs affect NC? What can we do to prepare? Maximize positive benefits Mitigate negative effects Audi AV, from wired.com 14

15 Definition Self-driving on-road motor vehicle No steering wheel or pedals Level 5 Someone tells the vehicle the destination, vehicle gets there Do not need special infrastructure Can run empty Or carry only cargo Autonomous vehicle developed for Fort Bragg,

16 AVs Will Be Adopted Quickly Safer Cheaper Human driving will get more expensive Time savings Benefits for many groups of consumers Manufacturers plan to sell level 5 by 2021 Huge R&D expenditures Push by foreign companies Disincentives at levels 3 and 4 Little new infrastructure needed No show-stoppers 16

17 Changing How We Use Autos Autonomous Subscription Electric Source: itunes Google Gumdrop vehicle, from CNET 17

18 As Big a Change As Jet airplane? Interstate system? Model T? Railroads? Steamships? 18

19 Safety Currently so awful 38,000 deaths per year in US and climbing 1.2 million deaths per year worldwide Young person s disease At least 90 percent of current crashes have human error as major contributing factor Widespread adoption of AVs will cut crashes, injuries, and fatalities dramatically 19

20 Safety Car sensors are better than human senses More sensors, connected vehicles, Machine processing times getting faster Software updates correct previous errors Human drivers never learn Logic always favors safety Car companies assume liability, have every incentive to reduce crashes 20

21 Travel Efficiency With all AVs, road capacity increases by up to 50 percent With some human-driven vehicles, benefits will be smaller Optimum routing More ride-sharing Discount subscriptions More trucks at night No cruising for parking Source: CLEPA.edu 21

22 Travel Efficiency Narrower lanes Cycle-by cycle or second-by-second laneuse controls Virtual roundabouts, superstreets, road diets, turn prohibitions, etc. 22

23 Travel Efficiency On the other hand, auto travel is cheaper and easier, so Empty vehicles More trips Longer trips Mode shift from transit Overall, likely less congestion 23

24 Roads Funding is the big problem If no new capacity needed, jobs are another problem Two million highway construction jobs nationwide NCDOT,

25 Transit Outside of a few big cities, will AVs will take over much of the transit market? Some gain from driverless transit vehicles, but Door-to-door service More reliable Cheaper for many fare-paying customers Cheaper for taxpayers Local governments can subsidize rides for lowincome citizens 25

26 Trucking Going driverless is the big cost savings About 1.8 million jobs across the US Experiments underway Platooning trucks Beer truck drives across Colorado Long-haul terminal to terminal seems easiest 26

27 Older People Source: Slate.com 27

28 Younger People NC law allows 12 year old to be in AV alone Source: Twitter.com 28

29 Disabled People Source: Jalopnik.com 29

30 Commuters What will you do with your extra free time in the car every day? Source: Slide Share 30

31 Parking Land Use Changes 31

32 Land Use Changes Retail 32

33 Housing Land Use Changes 33

34 Exurban Areas Land Use Changes 34

35 Environmental Impacts Air CO 2 Water Noise Wildlife Car-kill Habitat Oil industry Gas stations Deepwater Horizon explosion. Source: Slate.com 35

36 Other Impacts Tourism Auto business Utilities Law enforcement Health care Evacuations Schools Others? Source: Houston Public Media 36

37 NCDOT Encourages Autonomous Vehicle Adoption SAFETY! Reduce the 1,500 fatal victims per year Reduce the 125,000 injury victims per year Reduce the billions in economic damage Mobility for more citizens Reduce or eliminate congestion Greater access to jobs Faster goods movement 37

38 NCDOT and NC Government Will Play a Big Role in AV Adoption We build and operate roadways We license drivers We register vehicles We establish and enforce driving and vehicle laws and ordinances Tort cases are heard in our courts 38

39 Road Map Commissioned Sponsored by NCDOT Completed November 2016 Documents at 7 initiatives, 27 activities 39

40 2017 Legislation HB 469 defined fully autonomous vehicles, made them legal, and formed DOT committee Passed Senate 45-2, House Signed by Governor July 21 Effective December 1 HB 716 made truck platooning legal where allowed by DOT ordinance Passed Senate 45-1, House Signed by Governor July 21 Effective August 1 40

41 Down the Line for DOT Laws and institutions in place Stable and reliable funding source Smooth pavements Good quality pavement markings Advanced traffic engineering Good communication between state agencies and vehicle companies 41

42 A Hopeful Future With AVs, travel could be Much safer Cheaper Quicker Available for more people Less stressful Better for the environment Better for business Creating more jobs 42

43 Federal legislation Vehicles Needed Actions State legislation, courts Local governments Parking, land uses Public and media do not panic Train people for new businesses Battery techs, not truck drivers Research 43

44 Thank You! Joe Hummer , 44