The Future of Transit and Autonomous Vehicle Technology. APTA Emerging Leaders Program May 2018
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1 The Future of Transit and Autonomous Vehicle Technology APTA Emerging Leaders Program May 2018
2 APTA Emerging Leaders Program Team 3 Nick Davidson Transportation Planning Manager Stark Area RTA - Canton, OH Nick Biggar Hayden District Director Greater Cleveland RTA Christina Arthur Traffic Planning Manager Chicago Transit Authority Carly Shapiro, AICP Planner IV HNTB - Detroit, MI
3 Source: Beede, David, et al. The Employment Impact of Autonomous Vehicles. U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration Office of the Chief Economist, vol. 05, no. 17, 11 Aug Automation Levels Level Features Market 0 No Automation No autonomy Most cars 1 Driver Assistance Night vision Blind spot detection Surround view parking 2 Partial Automation Steering Acceleration Braking in highway conditions Avoiding collision impacts Around 20,000 cars Luxury cars 3 Conditional Automation Cameras Radar Lidar Possibly in 5 years 4 High Automation Artificial intelligence is capable of handling most functions, but may require human assistance Possibly in 5 years 5 Full Automation Artificial intelligence is capable of handling all driving functions 10 or more years
4 Why Autonomous Vehicles? Automobiles are parked 95% of the time 1 Eliminate most critical cause of crashes 2 94% of crashes are due to driver 2 2% vehicle equipment, 2% environment, 2% unknown 1.25 million vehicle related deaths annually 3 1,175,000 deaths potentially prevented Source: 1. Want to Know Why Uber and Automation Really Matter? Here's Your Answer. Fortune, fortune.com/2016/03/13/cars-parked-95-percent-of-time/. 2. Critical Reasons for Crashes Investigated in the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey. Traffic Safety Facts, USDOT, Feb. 2015, crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/api/public/viewpublication/ Global Status Report on Road Safety World Health Organization, World Health Organization, 2015,
5 Impact of Autonomous Vehicles Crash Fatalities in the USA Fatal Crashes Fatalities ,439 37, ,539 35, ,056 32,744 Economic and Comprehensive Costs (in Billions) to Society by Type of Crash Crash type Economic Cost Comprehensive Cost All $242 $836 Alcohol-Impaired $44 $201 Speeding $52 $203 Source: Automated Vehicles for Safety. Automated Vehicles for Safety, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 12 Sept. 2017,
6 Narrowing Our Scope
7 Case Studies SMART City: Columbus, OH $40M grant from USDOT SMART city challenge June 2016 Connected Vehicles: traffic light preemption, transit priority, pedestrian detection Keolis: Shuttle in Las Vegas, NV Fully autonomous pilot program Operates 7 hours/day, carries 8 passengers, 250 boardings/day
8 Safety and Security Fare enforcement Perception of personal security Collisions/Vehicle Safety Passenger Injuries/Emergencies Vehicle Breakdowns Hacking/Terrorism
9 Infrastructure America s Roads - Grade D (ASCE) Costs Sensors and cameras - $50k per mile Resurfacing and pavement markings - $1M per mile Benefits Transit Roadway Other
10 Accessibility 18.7% of Americans have a disability 1 Vehicle/Device interaction Door-to-door path Paratransit dependence to independence Source: 1. United States, Congress, Economics and Statistics Administration, and Matthew Brault. Americans With Disabilities: Americans With Disabilities: 2010, 2012.
11 Vehicle Functionality Retrofitting and brand new vehicles Smaller vehicles Increased efficiency and sustainability Forward/backward movements Vehicle miles travelled will increase Technology on board Location and live updates
12 Did you know In 2015, 15.5 million U.S. workers were employed in occupations that could be affected (to varying degrees) by the introduction of automated vehicles. This represents about one in nine workers. Source: Beede, David, et al. The Employment Impact of Autonomous Vehicles. U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration Office of the Chief Economist, vol. 05, no. 17, 11 Aug. 2017
13 Workforce Impacts Elevator operator vs. ticket agent New technical skills and retraining Mechanical, operations, technology, dispatch, road supervisors, bus operators etc. Labor unions Partnering opportunities Operations Planning Leadership Maintenance
14 Next Steps Legislation/Policy 22 states have passed legislation, 9 Governors issued executive orders Scalable Implementation Controlled guideways Airport Shuttles Campus Shuttles Utilizing existing infrastructure
15 Autonomous Technology and Your Agency 1. What is the vision for AV and transit mobility in your city? 2. Have you begun conversations with policy makers? 3. Have you talked to your labor union?
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