Autonomous Vehicles We Drive Our Cars To Work Shouldn t They Drive Us?

Transcription

1 Autonomous Vehicles We Drive Our Cars To Work Shouldn t They Drive Us? SPRIE Roundtable - Smart Green City Innovations Stanford University June 26, 2012 Dr. Sven A. Beiker Executive Director, Center for Automotive Research at Stanford - CARS 416 Escondido Mall, Bldg 550/Room 131, Stanford, CA , USA (+1) , beiker@stanford.edu,

2 Introduction Center for Automotive Research at Stanford The Center for Automo.ve Research at Stanford is a partnership of academia and industry with the goal of advancing research and educa.on in the automo.ve realm and addressing the needs of personal mobility in the 21st century. CARS connect > advance > reach out > support

3 Challenges Health, Environment, Economics Injuries: Motor vehicle crashes lead to for 32,788 fatalities in 2010, 95% of the cases human error at least contributing factor 1,2 Congestion: Commuter gets delayed 36 hrs per year due to congestion, total 2.8B gal of fuel wasted, overall loss $87.2B 3 Pollution: Transportation in the U.S. alone produces 1.9B tons CO 2, burning 4.7B barrels petroleum per year 4 1. NHTSA, Washington, DC, NHTSA, Washington, DC, Texas Transportation Institute, College Station, TX, Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC, 2010

4 Future of the Automobile Key Fields and Disciplines Driver Assistance Sociology Psychology Mobile Society Politics Policies Technology Design Economics Business Connected Mobility Resources Environment Alternative Energy CARS Center for Automotive Research at Stanford

5 Overview Driver Assistance / Autonomous Driving GPS Receiver Laser Camera Radar Speed Sensor Motion Sensor Central Processing Unit Automated Steering Automated Braking Automated Throttle Reduce Risk of Human Error Improve Efficiency of Traffic Flow Improve Efficiency of Vehicle Control 5

6 Object Recognition, Path Planning, Machine Learning Stanford University (Prof. Sebastian Thrun) and Volkswagen Group of America DARPA Urban Challenge, Victorville (CA) Nov 2007

7 Vehicle Control at the Limits of Handling Stanford University (Prof. Chris Gerdes) and Volkswagen Group of America Autonomous Hill Climb, Pikes Peak, CO, Sep 2010

8 History of Automated Highways + Autonomous Vehicles GM Automated Highway Autonomous Vehicle Milestone (Dist. / % Autonomous Mode) GM/RCA, MI 160,000mls 100% Google 12mls 100% Stanford 132 mls 60mls 100% 100% DARPA, MI / PA - Global 5000mls 98.2% CMU NavLab, PA 1000mls 1200mls 10,000mls 95% 94% 100% PROMETHEUS, EU ARGO, IT VisLab PATH, CA AHS, Japan (Tsukuba) AHS at Ohio State, OH NAHSC, US

9 Source: Audi In Production: Adaptive Cruise Control, since 1995

10 Source: Audi In Production: Lane Keeping Assist, since 2001

11 Source: John Visbeen In Production: Parking Assist, since 2003

12 In Production: Pedestrian Recognition, since 2010 Source: Volvo Cars

13 Timeline: Driver Assistance to Autonomous Driving Autonomous Driving? Autonomous Vehicle Automated Driving Assisted Driving Warning Information? Automated HWY Driving? Automated Valet Parking? Automated Stop-and-Go Automated Parking Automated Parallel Parking? Heading Control Automatic Emergency Braking Lane Keep Assistance BAS Brake Assist System ACC Adaptive Cruise Control ESC Electronic Stability Control EBD Electronic Brake Distribution TCS Traction Control System ABS Anti Lock Braking System Pedestrian Detection Blind Spot Warning Traffic Sign Detection Collision Warning Driver Monitoring Night Vision LDW Lane Departure Warning Parking Aid Navigation System 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s Future Vision

14 In Testing: Google Autonomous Car, since 2010 Source: nycbos on YouTube

15 Autonomous Vehicles in the Media A Reality Soon??? October 9, 2010 SMARTER THAN YOU THINK Google Cars Drive Themselves, in Traffic June 9, By Greg Lindsay How Google s Robot Cars Will Revive Sprawl TECHNOLOGY December 01, 2011, 5:15 PM EST" Will Driverless Cars Become the New Road Rage?! The sci-fi dream of no-hands vehicles could be real within a decade Bloomberg Businessweek HONOLULU KITV.com updated 1/19/2012 7:46:41 PM ET Lawmaker Unveils Bill To Legalize "Driverless" Cars

16 Autonomous Driving - Will Drivers Become Passengers?

17 Autonomous Driving Will Autonomous Cars Blend In?

18 Autonomous Driving Will It Do Without Infrastructure? V2V INFRASTUCTURE V2I

19 Connected Mobility Can Cars Be More Extroverted? transmission speed(s), torque, gear, pressure, maintenance data engine speed, torque, load, temperatures, pressures, maintenance data location, destination, speed, VIN body motion: yaw rate, lateral / longitudinal / vertical acceleration windows, doors status ambient, pressure, temperature, lighting, rain nearby vehicles: distance, speed, number driver steering, brake, throttle, gear selection, turn signal, lights seats, restraint systems status, heating / ventilation, infotainment settings brakes / steering / vehicle dynamics control / driver assistance suspension / wheels system status forces, angles, speeds, pressures, temperatures

20 Dedicated Short Range Communication DSRC

21 Cellular- & Server Based Vehicle Communication Emergency Veh Long / Lat / Time / Destination Situation Query What is happening in my area? Slow Vehicle Long Slow / Vehicle Lat / Time Long Slow / Speed / Vehicle Lat / Time Long Slow Heading / Speed / Vehicle Lat / Time Long Slow Heading / Speed / Vehicle Lat / Time Long Heading / Speed / Lat / Time Heading / Speed / Heading Situation Query What is happening in my area? Airbag Fired Long / Lat / Time/ ESC Activated Long / Lat / Time / Speed / ACC / Vehicle Moving Long / Lat / Time / Speed / Heading / Road Closure Long / Lat / Road Number / Direction

22 Roadside Assistance as a Connected Service Who s that girl next to me? Who s that guy next to me? 8:30pm, everything s fine A friend of a friend on Facebook ask Tom A friend of a friend on Facebook ask Tom Only if you take P&R next exit. Better charge at What is this outlet mall 30mls noise and smell? ahead. Pull over 3 rd exit and have car checked just minor check don t panic. Motel at next exit When will I reach Sacramento? I am new to this area what s to watch out for? Watch out for blind intersection ahead Will I make it to San Jose with battery charge? Will I make it to the ball game in time? I am tired, can you get me a hotel?

23 The Challenge for Electric Cars: Range, Charge, Cost Challenges US consumers see regarding electric vehicles [1] 28% range and battery life 20% availability of charging stations 17 % total cost/affordability 9% high [purchase] cost of vehicles Challenges EU industry experts see regarding electric vehicles [2] 65% range 57% availability of charging stations 55% total cost/affordability 30% not suitable for everyday driving Analysts expect EVs to have 2% to 3% share of the new-car market by 2020 [3] Consumers are not ready for EVs or are EVs not ready for consumers? [1] Energy + Environment Study, Market Strategies International, Nov 2010 (1,168 interviews U.S. nationwide, Oct 14-25, 2010) [2] European Automotive Survey 2011, Ernst & Young, Aug 28, 2011 [3] Are Americans Willing to Try Electric Cars?, The Wall Street Journal, Dec 1, 2010

24 Wireless Charging While Driving No Range Anxiety

25 Future Mobility Automated Connected Electric V2V INFRASTUCTURE V2I

26 Opportunities and Challenges for Smart Vehicles ü Technology would be ready to have vehicles drive autonomously? Mix of standard and autonomous vehicles imposes many challenges è Completely autonomous vehicles potentially by 2030 (limited roads) ü Technology would be ready to connect vehicles with one another? Infrastructure cost of exclusive vehicle communication network immense è Exclusive vehicle communication possibly by 2020 (basic solutions earlier) ü Technology is evolving to enable long-distance travel with EVs? Consumer adoption and infrastructure deployment unclear è Average new EV might satisfy consumer range expectation by 2025