Market Monitoring Update

Transcription

1 Market Monitoring Update Eric Hildebrandt, Ph.D. Executive Director, Department of Market Monitoring EIM Governing Body Meeting General Session January 24, 2019

2 EIM prices in 2018 reflect regional supply conditions, transmission limits, and net loads. Average hourly 15-minute prices (April December 2018) Slide 2

3 Upward flexible ramping requirement test failures low in most areas, but 4 to 5% in some EIM areas during Source: EIM power balance constraint relaxation and imbalance conformance limiter, DMM, January 18, Slide 3

4 Flexible ramping requirement test failures lead to transfer limits which contribute to power balance constraint infeasibilities in EIM areas. 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% Failed sufficiency test & infeasibility Passed sufficiency test & infeasibility Percent of intervals 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short East West NV Energy Puget Sound Energy Arizona Public Service Portland General Electric Idaho Power* Powerex* Slide 4

5 Changes to ramping sufficient test in EIM being implemented in spring 2019 include: Application of Bid Range Capacity and Flexible Ramp Sufficiency Tests at a 15-minute (vs. hourly) basis. Tolerance bandwidth threshold for small deviations from test requirements Greater of 1% of BAAs uncertainty requirement or 1 MW. Provide EIM areas increased information and details of sufficiency evaluations. Changes should provide more transparency and reduce test failures. Slide 5

6 Changes in load conformance limiter planned for 2019 will significantly reduce when the limiter is triggered. Percent of intervals 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Load conformance limiter not triggered Current load conformance limiter tiggered Proposed load conformance limiter triggered Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. California ISO East West NV Energy Puget Sound Energy Arizona Public Service Portland General Electric Idaho Power* Slide 6

7 With current limiter, prices set by last dispatched bid in EIM areas are often much lower than $1,000/MW penalty price otherwise used for infeasibilities. 1.0% 0.9% Less than $50 $50 to $200 $200 to $300 $300 to $400 $400 to $900 > $ % Percent of intervals 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. Curr. Prop. California ISO East West NV Energy Puget Sound Energy Arizona Public Service Portland General Electric Idaho Power* Slide 7

8 New load conformance limiter will have much lower impact on prices in two EIM areas. Average price with current conformance limiter Average price with proposed conformance limiter Increase NV Energy 15-minute market (FMM) $35.75 $ % 5-minute market (RTD) $35.30 $ % Arizona Public Service 15-minute market (FMM) $34.96 $ % 5-minute market (RTD) $34.66 $ % Impact of current and proposed load conformance limiter found to be minimal in CAISO and other EIM areas. Slide 8

9 Impact of current and proposed load conformance limiter in APS (15-minute prices, 2018). $100 $90 $80 Average price using current load conformance limiter logic (actual) Average estimated price without the load conformance limiter Average estimated price using proposed load conformance limiter logic $70 Price ($/MWh) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Actual average price: $34.96 With proposed limiter: $38.52 (+ 10%) With no limiter: $39.22 (+ 12%) Hour ending Slide 9

10 Impact of current and proposed load conformance limiter in NV Energy (15-minute prices, 2018). $100 $90 $80 Average price using current load conformance limiter logic (actual) Average estimated price without the load conformance limiter Average estimated price using proposed load conformance limiter logic Price ($/MWh) $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Actual average price: $35.75 With proposed limiter: $37.60 (+ 5%) With no limiter: $37.93 (+ 6%) Hour ending Slide 10

11 Conclusions and recommendations DMM supports new load conformance limiter being proposed, but recommends EIM areas take action to mitigate potential priced impacts of new approach. Review and monitor use and impact of load conformance. Seek to reduce ramping sufficiency test failures. Changes to sufficiency tests should provide more transparency and help reduce failures. Slide 11