4-6 October 2016 The NEC, Birmingham, UK. cleanenergylive.co.uk

Transcription

1 4-6 October 2016 The NEC, Birmingham, UK cleanenergylive.co.uk #celive

2 cleanenergylive.co.uk #celive

3 Selling Storage What you need to know. Dr Christian N Jardine Technical Director, Joju Solar and Senior Researcher, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

4 Residential Rates of return Self-utilisation Discharge Motivations Niches Retrofit, solar+storage Social housing New builds Commercial High load factors Other operational modes

5 Lets be honest about battery market Huge interest in storage at present The Tesla Effect domestic batteries nationwide (mainly trials) batteries, new additions are sales But 1500 installers offering batteries Massively oversupplied This won t replace our old solar market But an interesting additional product line

6 Classic load-shifting (autumn/spring)

7 Load-shifting (winter)

8 Load-shifting (summer)

9 So, broadly 3 modes of operation Spring/Autumn Broadly well balanced Excess generation feeds battery Discharges overnight Winter Not enough excess generation to fill battery A kettle can empty it Won t last into the evening peak Summer Too much generation! Battery can be full by mid morning You end up exporting anyway Damaging to grid = some smartness needed to control portfolios of batteries All means you can t have 100% self consumption Clients need better understanding than just the classic model.

10 % self consumption Domestic Solar PV rates of return Price 3kW ( ) 5.9% % 11.1% 11.9% 12.9% 13.9% 15.2% 16.6% 18.4% 20.6% 90% 10.3% 11.1% 11.9% 13.0% 14.1% 15.5% 17.2% 19.3% 80% 9.4% 10.1% 11.0% 12.0% 13.1% 14.4% 16.0% 18.0% 70% 8.4% 9.2% 10.0% 10.9% 12.0% 13.2% 14.8% 16.6% 60% 7.4% 8.1% 8.9% 9.8% 10.8% 12.0% 13.4% 15.2% 50% 6.3% 7.0% 7.7% 8.6% 9.6% 10.7% 12.0% 13.7% 40% 5.1% 5.8% 6.5% 7.3% 8.2% 9.3% 10.5% 12.1% 30% 3.8% 4.4% 5.1% 5.8% 6.7% 7.7% 8.9% 10.3% 20% 2.2% 2.8% 3.4% 4.1% 5.0% 5.9% 7.0% 8.4% 10% 0.2% 0.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.9% 3.8% 4.8% 6.1% 0% -2.4% -1.9% -1.3% -0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 1.9% 3.1% 100% self consumption not possible in UK, beware missselling Addition of battery broadly doesn t change rate of return But both lower than classic 50% self consumption selling

11 What about discharge? Batteries are brilliant technologies for storing electricity They can soak up excess whenever it is available But less thought given to discharge This is when batteries are really valuable Two broad models at present Self-consumption Peak shaving In future Flexible charge/discharge based on grid-wide fossil generation needed Or other ancillary services

12 Self-consumption

13 Peak demand discharge

14 Market segmentation

15 Motivations Self-consumption Use your own generation Lower utilisation (battery might not empty) use it, or lose it Insular, isolationist Take back control Self-reliance Peak shaving Discharge when most useful to system High utilisation (battery empties) help get more renewables Part of a larger system Be the control! Resilience in networks Know where you stand Would disconnect? Ultimately VERY expensive This doesn t work perfectly (yet) (ever?) Wouldn t disconnect Networks reduce costs

16 Retrofit or Solar+storage Better economics on solar+storage Needs new customers, but: Clear overall proposition 1 project = 1 lot of project management So, lower overheads 5% VAT Retrofit Good access to customer base, but: You might have sold solar on basis of 50% consumption Poorer economics 20% VAT

17 Social Housing Council Purchases PV system Council Receives FiT Pays back system Tenant benefits from free electricity used (25%)

18 Social Housing Council Purchases PV system + battery Council Receives FiT Won t pay back system Tenant benefits from free electricity used (70%)

19 New Build market Increased interest in batteries for new build But, new build market very CAPEX sensitive Driven by Carbon legislation Often see very small, poorly oriented/designed systems Batteries add CAPEX Batteries do not improve carbon under SAP So no real driver here Other than interest/experimentation

20 Commercial Storage Higher load factor in commercial buildings Usage better aligned with solar Implies opportunities for storing and shifting excess are lower Low battery utilisation = poor economics

21 Commercial Storage Need to be cleverer Opportunities Renewable generation time-shifting Night/day time shifting DUoS avoidance, TRIAD avoidance Provision of ancillary services Firm frequency response Enhanced frequency response Short-term operating reserve (STOR) Fast reserve But these need scale to access markets, even via aggregator Probably need more than 1 to give adequate payback Can you offer more than 1 service at once?

22 Conclusions 100% self-consumption not possible in UK Be clear about what batteries can and can t do Especially seasonally Better case for new solar+battery systems Beware mis-selling when going back to old customers Different motivations for batteries Social housing & new build look difficult Commercial demands has higher load factor Commercial storage needs other income streams

23 Thank you for your jojusolar.co.uk Official Solar Energy Partners of