Estimating for Collaboration

Transcription

1 Estimating for Collaboration Tony Vart Head of Estimating : IPS 2

2 Why collaborate? There are many reasons for collaboration Sharing of assets, resources, knowledge and expertise. Each party providing something that the other one wants in exchange for something that they can offer in return synergy. Political alliances and industrial relationships. Cost and affordability. The last bullet point here is a key driver, particularly in the current worldwide economic climate. Whilst it is recognised that there will be an overall cost (and programme) penalty, the sharing of such cost between a number of parties is often the only route to affordable solutions, 3

3 BAE Systems: The Air Sector Collaborative History Jaguar UK / France Tornado UK / Germany / Italy Typhoon UK / Germany / Italy / Spain JAS39 / Gripen UK / Sweden F35 US / UK / Others UAV s UK / TBD? 4

4 What are the Estimating Considerations? 2 types of cost for consideration Tangible - easier to cost Intangible - very difficult to assess the cost at proposal stage Tangible Duplication of assets / work driven by work share and / or organisation Final Assembly facilities / resources Tooling / Test Rigs and facilities Logistics / travel Impact of learning across multiple sites / concurrent manufacture Organisation / Agencies National Fits Weapon integration 5

5 What are the Estimating Considerations? Intangible Management construct leads to multiple stakeholders Decision making timescales can influence cost Politics / National Industrial Capability considerations Can influence and often result in sub-optimum work share arrangements Multiple interfaces at all levels of the organisational construct Agencies Platform, Engine, Radar, DASS Agencies to Industry/National Authorities Industrial interfaces Engineering Commercial 6

6 What are the practical Estimating Considerations? Process Cost share or work share? How is this measured? Initial cost estimates usually based upon 100% Work share Difficult to reconcile and identify political cost Difficult to separate out interface / integration costs Organisational development often immature Minimum requirements are Common PBS/WBS Common SoW at appropriate level Common A,E,D s Common currency Work share Allocation of Cost Man-hours Labour Rates / Cost Base Currencies Facilities National Pricing considerations Technology / Process / Learning Re-balancing of Work share as Production off-take and economic factors change 7

7 What are the practical Estimating Considerations? Culture Understanding can take time to develop Important to consider political and cultural strengths and weaknesses of each party Where 2+ parties are involved, build relationships to influence joint decisions, e.g. provide support to parties where there is a lack of experience of estimating for certain elements. Important to demonstrate, with evidence, our arguments and proposals. Evidence counts more than opinions. Put ourselves in their position, what is important for them? Identify behaviours that work, and understand each other s needs e.g. US are data hungry and need evidence to generate debate Technology Can help share good practice with technology, toolsets, software e.g. using ProPricer with Northrup Grumman Ensures pricing and outputs are compatible and aligned Location Co-location important, particularly in the early days when key decisions are made at a fast pace Permanent presence ensures we focus efforts in the most appropriate areas to lead to the suitable amount, variety and type of workshare Upfront involvement helps shape a longer term benefit to each party. Important to look from a through life perspective 8

8 Eurofighter Typhoon Overview of programme history and collaboration to highlight some issues

9 History - Eurofighter Typhoon Timeline 1972 Requirement for new fighter first identified. Various concepts & prototypes around Europe throughout 1970 s MoD & British Aerospace (BAe) fund Experimental Aircraft Programme (EAP) First flight of EAP prototype at BAe Warton. Eurofighter GmbH & Eurojet Turbo GmbH formed Development Contract signed for Aircraft & Engines First flight of Development Aircraft DA1 in Manching, Germany Production Investment (Umbrella) contract signed for 620 aircraft. (Supplement 1) 1998 Production contract signed for 148 Tranche 1 A/C. (Supplement 2) 2002 First flight of Tranche 1 production aircraft Tranche 1 Type Acceptance- marking the start of formal deliveries to partner nations. Opening of the Aircrew Synthetic Training Aids Integration Facility (ASTA JIF). Austria signs contract for Eurofighter Typhoon Production Contract signed for 236 Tranche 2 Aircraft. (Supplement 3) UK / Saudi Governments sign understanding document for modernisation (inc. agreement to supply 72 Aircraft) First operational deployment at Winter Olympics in Turin, Italy Contract for the supply of 72 Aircraft to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia signed Tranche 2 aircraft IPA7 makes first flight. Type Acceptance achieved for Tranche 2 A/C. Delivery of first 3 Tranche 2 jets to RAF Coningsby Typhoon Availability Service contract award 4th March Delivery of first 8 Typhoon A/C to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 10

10 Industrial Organisation - tangible and intangible costs Italy UK Spain Germany NETMA Eurofighter Eurojet ALN BAES EADS-C EADS-D Avio RR ITP MTU 11

11 Eurofighter Typhoon Physical Workshare- tangible cost Airframe Systems Dev Prod A/C BAE SYSTEMS Avionics 33% 37.5% 232 EADS - D Flight Controls 33% 30% 180 Alenia Utility Controls 21% 19.5% 121 EADS - C Structures 13% 13% Baseline U.K % Based upon - Germany Italy % 19.5% Spain 87 13% Total =

12 Typhoon Production & Assembly tangible cost Major Unit Manufacture Final Assembly Workshare is based on production offtake 13

13 A/C Systems - Avionic Subsystems Displays and Controls Cockpit Navigation Communications Attack and Identification Defensive Aids Armament Control Integrated Monitoring and Recording Systems Integration BAE Systems Warton BAE Systems Warton Alenia Turin EADS-C Madrid EADS-D Ottobrun BAE Systems Warton Alenia Turin BAE Systems Warton BAE Systems Warton 14

14 A/C Systems - Avionic Systems Architecture 15

15 Workshare Systems Interfaces tangible and intangible cost 16

16 UAV UK/Fr Collaboration use of parametric toolset Collaboration between BAE Systems and Dassault Aviation for the UK/Fr Strategic Unmanned Air System. BAE Systems used PRICE Systems TruePlanning toolset to build a collaboration factor into the parametric estimate as a comparison. This considered the following factors: Multiple Site Development factor, covering challenges presented to teams working in multiple geographic locations: Location: Single, Several, Many Communication: Good, Poor Project Complexity factor for planning and oversight activities: Low, Nominal, High, Very High This was then used to inform the estimate and compared to other collaboration factors contained in various academic papers. 17

17 Rules of Thumb The Square Root rule Collaborative developments costs approximated by the square root of the number of participating nations (Sander and Hartley, 1995, p236) i.e. 4-Nation programme costs double the equivalent national development programme Unit Production costs Up to a 10% cost penalty (HCP247, 1991) Schedule Delays approximated by the cube root of the number of participating nations Suggestions that collaborative development takes 50% longer than a national project..but not supported by statistical tests (HCP 436,1995;Hartley and Martin,1993) Development timescales for a Prototype Aircraft can be calculated by using the formula T=T(P,C,N,Dv,Z,t) where N is the number of participating nations. 18

18 The NAO View - Management of the Typhoon Project : March 2011 Cost Development costs more than doubled to 6.7billion Increase of 2.2billion driven by inefficient collaborative commercial and management arrangements, obligations to international partners and the complexity of the technologies being developed, a challenge compounded by the rigid collaborative work share requirements. Increase of 1.0billion driven by Cost of capital charges due to delays in the project Increase of 0.3billion driven by Capability changes driven by evolving operational needs Governance Collaborative decision making is inefficient the collaborative arrangements presents serious challenges if the Department is to upgrade and support the aircraft quickly and costeffectively more to do to improve the collaborative support arrangements. 19

19 The Customers View There is always a collaboration overhead with such things the ability of six nations to work together to get Meteor to the threshold of full production shows that collaboration can indeed work, even on this wide scale DE&S Director of Weapons May 2011 issue of desider 20

20 Jaguar History The SEPECAT Jaguar is an Anglo-French jet ground attack aircraft, originally used by the British RAF and the French Armée de l'air in the close air support and nuclear strike role. Originally conceived in the 1960s as jet trainer with a light ground attack capability, the requirement for the aircraft soon changed to include supersonic performance, reconnaissance and tactical nuclear strike roles. The airframes were manufactured by SEPECAT, a joint venture between Breguet and the British Aircraft Corporation (BAC), one of the first major joint-anglo-french military aircraft programs. Production workshare was split 50:50 between the contractors, with BAC building the wings, engine intakes, rear fuselage, and tail assembly, while Breguet built the nose, center fuselage, and landing gear. There were final assembly lines in both countries to build their respective national variants, with BAC rolling out Jaguars at Warton and Breguet producing them near Toulouse. Hidden slide for info 21