Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV) Costing Considerations PSI Team. SCAF Workshop 22 November 2010

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2 Uninhabited Air Vehicle (UAV) Costing Considerations PSI Team SCAF Workshop 22 November 2010

3 UAV Design Considerations 1. Role 2. Design quality military / commercial? 3. Performance altitude, speed, endurance 4. Propulsion 5. Power source 6. Power requirements for flight & payload 7. Payload 8. Ground environment

4 UAV Role(s) Reconnaissance Communications Relay Earth Observation, remote prospecting Law Enforcement (Traffic, Border control, Agricultural monitoring) Offensive activities against Land/ maritime targets Air combat, electronic warfare. Any mix of the above!!

5 UAV Design military / commercial Military specifications arduous Military materials and components costly Design certification/ acceptance different Historic schedules long projects overtime/ cost etc Good commercial design reduces timescales, uses proven materials, components and may trade-off some performance for early fielding

6 UAV - Performance Performance Endurance >48 hours Speed ~150Kts maximum Altitude 40,00ft plus All of the above are inter-related and some performance attributes will be role dependent and large drivers of cost.

7 UAV Propulsion Air breathing Reciprocating Turbo-prop Jet Chemical (rocket) Electric Other propulsion nuclear or more exotic types ruled out on grounds of safety or immaturity. Final option likely to be a mix for resilience and performance

8 UAV Power requirements Battery (sustain and engine electric start) Payload with growth capability Compile equipment list with power drains Total + safety margin + growth

9 UAV Power sources Battery Generator Photo-voltaic, ~12% minimum efficiency Other sources nuclear, chemical etc are ruled out due to increased safety and certification issues. Final option likely to be a mix for resilience and performance

10 Photo-voltaic family

11 Photo-voltaic costs $/Watt y = x x R² = 1 10 Series1 Power (Series1) Poly. (Series1)

12 UAV Payload Mixed systems Data link Flight Control Sensors (Electro-optic, SAR etc) Communications Collision Avoidance Potential capacity for Defensive Aids /Weapons (internal bay) Satcom

13 UAV Ground environment Handling & other facilities Communications & control Mission planning Operator & Maintainer training Maintenance policy Operations & Mission Data collection & analysis Needed but excluded from this analysis

14 UAV Costing Considerations Handling & other facilities Communications & control Mission planning Operator & Maintainer training Maintenance policy Operations & Mission Data collection & analysis Needed but excluded from this analysis

15 PRICE Systems Team Option OTS Reconnaissance UAV

16 UAV Reconnaissance Option High altitude good commercial build OTS Payload off the shelf avionic (10KW max) Communications Relay Electro-optic (visible and dual band infra-red) Synthetic aperture radar Unused 250Kg capacity internal External standard wired hard points OTS Propulsion small jet turbine(150kts max) OTS Power (15KW capability for growth) thin film photo voltaic battery Not the place for cutting edge technologies

17 UAV Assumptions Lighter Than air (LTA) technology (Helium) Dry mass ~ 3.6 Tonnes With LTA ~200KGs Power requirements 15KW Propulsion SAFRAN TR60-5 (1200lbs thrust) Size ~ 16m diameter x 3m tall Usable area 640 sq metres, usable LTA volume 3290 cu metres Composite airframe Payload pack Expandable airframe

18 PRICE What could it look like? Picture courtesy

19 Illustrative Mass Dispersion UAV Illustrative Mass KGs UAV power KGs Propulsion Airframe Payload Ballast Fuel

20 UAV OTS Payload EO/IR Weapons/ DASS Synthetic Aperture Radar (intermittent) Data Link Satellite Communications Navigation Communications Relay Flight Management System Anti-collision radar Power supplies/ filters

21 RESULTS

22 UAV Point Estimates Development 20M SEPM 75M Production 45M Total 140M

23 Results in round numbers 1,500,000 total hours UAV Acquisition Non Recurring costs 20M UPC (30 off) 1.47M 50% ile 147M, 7.5M standard deviation Project cost range 138M - 10 & 90% confidence intervals

24 Cost Split

25 Cost Where the Activities Occur

26 Where the hours are spent