Technology assessment of China s new passenger car fleet and international comparisons. Motivations
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1 Technology assessment of China s new passenger car fleet and international comparisons Hui He December 2012 Motivations Identify differences in fleet features across regions. Identify technology gaps among manufacturers (esp. between independent and joint venture automakers), among market segments, and between domestic and import fleets. Provide policy recommendations based on findings. Transfer the comprehensive (and expensive) EU/US technology studies to China. The technology assessment study is the first step of a series work that link the EU/US technology and cost study to China. 2 1
2 Data availability PC Fleet Import Fleet Domestic 34% 94% 97% 84% Domestic Fleet 32% 93% 25% 5 Parameters Engine size (cc) Curb weight (kg) Wheel base (mm) Front track width (mm) Rear track width (mm) Power (HP) HP (rpm) Torque (N.m) Torque (rpm) Max speed (km/h) Acceleration speed 0-100km/h Compression ratio Drive train Fuel type Transmission type No. of gears Engine type Valve configuration No. of cylinders Valve per cylinder Fuel supply Air intake Valve timing Valve lift Fuel consumption (urban) Fuel consumption (extraurban) Fuel consumption (combined) Emissions standard Data fill-in rate Mini Small 16% 84% 27% 75% Lower Medium medium 4 59% 98% 84% Large SUV 7 96% 98% 98% 26% 77% Minivan 98% 98% 98% Color code 3 Technologies analyzed in this paper depending on data availability Area Technologies Engine Powertrain Transmission Potential CO2 reduction! Low friction lubrication 0.5% Engine friction reduction 2-4% Variable valve timing (and lift) 4-6% Cylinder deactivation 5-6% 2-5% x Turbo, gasoline direct injection Cooled EGR, turbo, GDI 8-15% x 20-25% x Compression ignition diesel 15-25% Digital valve actuation 5-1 Early torque converter lock-up 0.5% Optimized shifting 2-6% 6+ speed 2-8% x Continuously variable 8-1 x Dual-clutch, automated manual 9-13% x Aerodynamics 2-5% Tire rolling resistance 2-4% Accessories (steering, air cond., alternator) 1-4% Vehicle Lower refrigerant emissions (low-leak, low-gwp) Advanced material components % Integrated vehicle design 5-1 Mass-reduction Hybrid systems x Turbocharging Analyzed in this report! Stop-start mild hybrid Full hybrid electric system *Source of technology potential: EPA NPRM 6-8% x (with limited data) 30-35% 4 2
3 Major analyses of the report China s fleet-average vehicle features (based on 2010 data), fuel consumption, adoption rates of various engine and transmission technologies, comparisons with EU-gasoline cars and US cars Fleet features and technology adoption by domestic fleet and import fleet Fleet features and technology adoption by major market segments and comparisons with EU corresponding segments Corporate-average fleet features and technology adoption by major domestic manufacturers, focusing on potential gap between Chinese independent brands and joint venture manufacturers 5 Comparison of fleet characteristics and technology adoption rates by region Parameters EU PC Fleeta EU Gasoline PC Fleeta US LDV Fleetb US PC Fleetb Chinese PC Fleet Specifications Engine size (L) ,322 1,172 1,815 1,611 1,280 Footprint (m2) Power (kw) C 156C Power-to-weight ratio (W/kg) Engine specific power (kw/l) Urban FC (L/100km)e Extraurban FC (L/100km)e Combined FC (L/100km)e Combined NEDC FC (L/100km) Curb weight (kg) Max speed (km/h) Fuel Consumption and CO2 6 3
4 EU PC Fleeta Parameters Fuel Type CNG/LPG/flexible-fuel Diesel Unleaded gasoline Hybrid: unleaded gasoline/electric Transmission type Automatic CVT DCT Manual Number of Gears <=4 5 >=6 Fuel Supply Carburetor Diesel injection Gasoline direct injection Multi-port injection Single-point injection Sequential fuel injection Air Intake Naturally aspirated Turbocharged or supercharged Variable Valve Timing Variable Valve Lift Continuous variable valve lift Discrete variable valve lift EU Gasoline PC Fleeta US LDV Fleetb US PC Fleetb Chinese PC Fleet 3% 5 44% - 96% 4% 94% 5% <0. 9% 2% 3% 86% 14% 83% 84% 1 d 4% 8 14% 2%d 5% 34% 5% 6 59% 38% 2% 5 17% 25% 24% 4 29% 2 36% 12% 66% 17% 14% - 32% - 8% 77% 14% 8% 8 1 < < 6% 82% % % % 84% 17 2% 15% 4% % 16% 93% 7% 44% 6 5% 7 Market segments Lower! Mini Small Medium Large SUV Minivan medium hatchback 3.75 Hatchbacks 4.1 Hatchbacks 4.1 usually a sedan, usually a sedan, compact SUV, 5 small bus based m, RMB 40,000 ~ m, sedans 4.3 m, ~4.5 m, sedans 4.6 ~5 m, RMB l 5.0 m, RMB seats, 2.0 L, SUV on Japanese Kei60,000 RMB 40, ~4.6 m, RMB 100, ,000 often with car platform, ~60,000 80,000 ~ 130,000 ~180,000 separate chassis, engine around L often 7 L seats Chery QQ3 BYD F3, F0 FAW Xialia Honda City Chang an Chevrolet Sail, Benben Lova Chevrolet Spark VW Polo Changhe Ford Fiesta Beidouxing Geely Kingkong Geely Panda Geely Free Suzuki Auto Cruiser Suzuki SwiK FAW Weizhi Hyundai Elantra Honda Accord Audi A6 Honda CR- V Wuling Zhiguang Buick Excelle Toyota Camry Buick LaCrosse, Toyota RAV4, Wuling Xingwang VW Lavida, Nissan Bluebird, Regal Highlander Chang an Start JeOa, Bora, Teana BMW 5 Series Kia Sportage Chang an Start II Santana Mazda 6 Toyota Crown, Great Wall Haval Chang an Cherolet Cruze VW Passat, Reiz Hawtai Santa Fe Starlight Ford Focus Magotan Zotye 500B Hafei Minyi Toyota Corolla Chevrolet Epica VW Tiguan Hafei Zhongyi Nissan Tiida BYD F6 Cery Tiggo3 Dongfeng Yu an Skoda Octavia Ford Mondeo Hyundai Tucson Xiaokang Kida Forte Honda Civic Chang an Alsvin 8 4
5 Market size of each segment, breakdown by manufacturer type Mini! Small! 6%! 6%! Lower Medium! 15%! 16%! Medium! Large! SUV! 1! Mini Van! 4%! others! 32%! 1! Chinese independent Joint venture 9 Average values of vehicle features by segment! Mini! Market share (%)! Price (USD)! Small! Lower Medium! medium! Large! SUV! Minivan! 6%! 15%! 32%! 1! 4%! 1! 16%! 6789! 11573! 17199! 28977! 51061! 28285! 5401! Engine size (L)! 1.1! 1.4! 1.6! 2! 2.4! 2.1! 1.1! Curb weight (kg)! 918! 1080! 1258! 1464! 1684! 1567! 998! Footprint (m2)! 3.1! 3.6! 3.9! 4.2! 4.6! 4! 3! Horsepower (kw)! 50! 71! 84! 112! 141! 110! 45! Max speed (km/h)! 142! 169! 181! 198! 218! 171! 110! Power/weight (W/kg)! 55! 66! 67! 77! 83! 70! 45! Specific power (kw/l)! 45! 51! 53! 56! 59! 52! 41! Fuel consumption (L/100km)! 6.4! 6.7! 7.4! 8.5! 9! 9! 7.6! 10 5
6 Technology adoption by segment Parameters Mini Lower Medium Large Medium Small SUV Minivan Engine Diesel 6% Hybrid* GDI 4% 16% 33% 8% Turbo charger 5% 16% 14% 14% Supercharger VVT 7% 13% 53% 89% 63% Automatic 17% 24% 39% 53% 76% 4 Transmission CVT 2% 4% 13% 13% 7% DCT 2% 6 + Gears 3% 2 22% 87% 22% * Hybrid vehicle data in our raw database is not complete and this may affect values here. 11 Comparisons between Chinese and EU segments EU- 27, 2010 Market share Mini 1 Small 29% Typical model Peugeot 107 Toyota Yaris Segment Diesel share 7% Lower medium 32% 35% Upper medium 3% Off- road 9% Car- derived vans 2% Volkswagen Golf Toyota Avensis BMW 5er series BMW X3 Renault Kangoo 59% Medium 1 78% 8 76% 77% Version by fuel type Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Number of cylinder Displacement [L] Power [kw] AT share Curb weight [kg] CO2 [NEDC g/km] China, 2010 Segment Market share Typical model Diesel share Number of cylinder Displacement [L] Power [kw] AT share Curb weight [kg] CO2 [NEDC g/km] % 12% Mini 6% Chery QQ % % Small 15% BYD F % % % % % % Lower medium Medium Large 32% 1 4% Hyundai Elantra Honda Accord Audi A % % % % 37% SUV 1 Honda CR- V 6% % % Minivan 16% Wuling Zhiguang
7 Composition of import passenger car fleet Small, 2.3%! Lower medium, 4.8%! Although import fleet currently is <5% of overall fleet, fuelconsumptive cars (upper medium, large, sports, luxury), SUVs and MPVs represent 79% of the import sales. Among which, SUVs represent nearly half of import vehicles. Medium, 7.8%! Others, 16.5%! Large, 6.6%! Luxury, 10.4%! SUV, 47.7%! MPV, 4.! 13 Import SUVs are significantly heavier and more powerful, and consume more fuel than domestic SUVs Import SUV! Domestic SUV! 25! 19.9! 19.2! 20! 15.7! 15.9! 17.1! 15! 10.5! 8.9! Power-to-Weight Ratio (W/kg)/10! Footprint (m2)! Combined FC (L/ 100km)! Max Speed (km/h)/10! Power (kw)/10! Kerb Wt (kg)/100! 0! 7.0! 4.4! 4.0! 2.8! 2.1! Engine Size! (L)! 5! 8.2! 5.6! 5.3! Engine Specific Power (kw/l)/10! 11.0! 10! 14 7
8 Combined Fuel Consumption (L/100-km)! For any given size, import vehicles on average consume more fuel than domestically produced vehicles 16! Domestic fleet! Import fleet! Linear (Domestic fleet)! Linear (Import fleet)! 14! 12! 10! 8! 6! 4! 2.0! 2.5! 3.0! 3.5! 4.0! Footprint 4.5! 5.0! 5.5! 6.0! (m2)! 15 Market share of top 18 manufacturers analyzed (over 8 of sales) Chang'an, 8.3%! Others, 20.! Shanghai-GM, 8.3%! Tianjin-FAW-Xiali, 1.9%! FAW Car, 2.! SAIC-GM-Wuling, 8.! Great Wall, 2.2%! Shanghai-VW, 7.6%! Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia, 2.5%! Dongfeng-CitroënPeugeot, 2.8%! Geely, 2.9%! Bejing-Hyndai, 5.3%! Tianjin-FAW-Toyota, 2.9%! Chang'an-Ford, 3.! BYD, 3.6%! FAWVW, Chery, 5.3%! 4.2%! Dongfeng-Nissan, 5.3%! Guangqi-Honda, 4.! 16 8
9 Most Chinese automakers produce smaller cars than joint venture automakers, but their fuel consumption is not necessarily better Combined Fuel Consuption (L/100-km)! 8.5! $%&'('')*+,&-./%*+*&/%0*102&3(2435*"+& Dongfeng-CitroënPeugeot!!)(*&'('')*+,&6/%2&72("*&3(2435*"+& Shanghai-VW! Guangqi-Honda! FAW-Car! 8.0! Beijing-Hyundai! SAIC-GM-Wuling! Great! Wall! Dongfeng-Nissan! Shanghai-GM! Geely! 7.5! Chang'an! $%&'(&) %+,+%-./0012%% Chang`an-Ford! FAW-VW! 7.0! Tianjin-FAW-Toyota! Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia! Chery! 6.5! BYD! Tianjin-! FAW-Xiali! 67&8%3%$&()$ %9,:%-./0012%% $%&'(&)3,4%25% 6.0! 2.5! 2.7! 2.9! 3.1! 3.3! 3.5! 3.7! 3.9! 4.1! 4.3! 4.5! Footprint (m2)! 17 Engine efficiency technology adoption YLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLZQ*-.%2-."+SLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL[% YLLLL,-P'-P-.%\+/-PLLLL[%!)J%C/+%!)J%C/+% HQ-57-5LC*.+QU-L HQ-57-5LG"P/LV*/%% HQ-57-5LG"P/LV*/%% CD/-5E/-L!Q+P% 3*/-K*-L!)JL3Q(Q./%!)JL1J% I"/-5T*LOQ-P/% CD/-5E/-L!Q+P% HQ-57-5LC*.+QU-L 3*/-K*-L!)JL3Q(Q./% I"/-5T*LOQ-P/%!)JL1J% RQ.%/''$*X/\$% HQ-57-5LR*SS/-% &D/-5D/*L1J% H*SX+.% F*K*-5LO("-P/ &D/-5D/*LIN% 3*/-K*-L!)JLM*/$ I+/.%J/$$% I$(% FGH% CQ-W-"Q"S% CD+(% :889% B89% >89% =89% <89% ;89% :89% 89% CD/-5E/-%!)J%C/+% HQ-57-5LC*.+QU-L HQ-57-5LG"P/LV*/%% CD/-5E/-L!Q+P% 3*/-K*-L!)JL3Q(Q./%!)JL1J% I"/-5T*LOQ-P/% &D/-5D/*L1J% F*K*-5LO("-P/ HQ-57-5LR*SS/-% &D/-5D/*LIN% RQ.%/''$*X/\$% &D/-5D/*LINLJ"$*-5% YLLLL,-P'-P-.%\+/-PLLLL[% 1/$2%6*7.,-$.%Q-$(_%XQ-W-"Q"S% &D/-5D/*LINLJ"$*-5% I+/.%J/$$% 3*/-K*-L!)JLM*/$ FGH% I$(% CD+(% CD/-5E/-%,-$.%^%Q".$._%XQ-W-"Q"S% &D/-5D/*L1J% YLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLZQ*-.%2-."+SLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL[% 1/$2%3*4*-5 :889% B89% >89% =89% <89% ;89% :89% 89% R/."+/$$(%/S'*+/.P% F*K*-5LO("-P/ &D/-5D/*LIN% 3*/-K*-L!)JLM*/$ FGH% I$(% I+/.%J/$$% YLLLL,-P'-P-.%\+/-PLLLL[% &D/-5D/*LINLJ"$*-5% YLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLZQ*-.%2-."+SLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL[% 3"+\Q]S"'+%XD/+5+% CD+(% :889% B89% >89% =89% <89% ;89% :89% 89% CD/-5E/-%!)J%C/+% HQ-57-5LC*.+QU-L HQ-57-5LG"P/LV*/%% CD/-5E/-L!Q+P% 3*/-K*-L!)JL3Q(Q./%!)JL1J% I"/-5T*LOQ-P/% F*K*-5LO("-P/ &D/-5D/*L1J% )*+%,-./0 &*-5$L'Q*-.%*-KXWQ-% HQ-57-5LR*SS/-% &D/-5D/*LIN% YLLLL,-P'-P-.%\+/-PLLLL[% &D/-5D/*LINLJ"$*-5% I+/.%J/$$% N"$WL'Q*-.%*-KXWQ-% 3*/-K*-L!)JLM*/$ FGH% I$(% CD+(% CD/-5E/-% IH,% HQ-57-5LR*SS/-% $%&"''$( :889% B89% >89% =89% <89% ;89% :89% 89% 18 YLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLZQ*-.%2-."+SLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL[% 9
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11 Major findings The overall Chinese fleet is lagged in many key efficiency technologies behind Europe and US. Technology adoption status vary by segment. Smaller car segments (dominated by domestic makers) are more lagged. Mini vans are extremely inefficient and lagged in all key technologies. Import vehicles are mainly large, luxurious cars and SUVs that in general consume more fuel. Most Chinese automakers are not as advanced as joint venture companies in technology adoption. 21 Preliminary recommendations Stringent regulatory standards are needed to drive technology innovation and upgrades, enhancing the competitiveness of the Chinese auto industry. The current policy (or lack of effective policy) on fuel consumption of import cars has failed to bring vehicles with world-class efficiency onto the Chinese market. Future regulations should apply the same set of noncompliance penalties used for domestic vehicles to imports as well. Given that the advanced technologies in large-car segments are more market-ready, future standards should reflect this. Special incentives are needed to improve the efficiency of minivans or to replace the segment with more efficient and similarly functional vehicles. Flexibility and incentives may be needed to allow some Chinese automakers that are behind on technologies and have relatively narrow product lines to be able to meet the future stringent standards within a reasonable range of cost increases
12 Thank you! 23 Backup slides 24 12
13 Comparison between EU and Chinese passenger car fleet by segment Parameters Mini EU Mini Share (%) 6% Engine Size (L) 1.1 Kerb Wt (kg) 918 Footprint (sqm) 3.1 Power (kw) 50 Max Speed (km/h) 142 Power- to- Weight Ralo (W/ 55 kg) Acceleralon Time ( km/h) Fuel Consumpaon (NEDC) Combined FC (L/100km) 6.4 Combined gco2/km 150 Technology Specificaaons Fuel Type Gasoline Diesel CNG/LPG/Flex Hybrid Transmission Manual 83% Automalc 17% CVT DCT No.of Gears 6 and above Fuel supply carbureoor mullpoint- injeclon 96% single- point injeclon 4% common- rail (Diesel) diesel injeclon GDI Fuel Intake naturally aspirated turbo or super charger Valve Timing VVT 7% Valve lif variable valve lik Small % EU Small 38% Lower EU Lower EU Medium Medium Medium Medium 32% % % Large EU Upper Medium 4% EU Car Mini Van Derived Van 5% 16% EU Off- road SUV % 7% 6% 86% - - < % 24% < 3% 13% 12% % 35% 6% 89% % 39% 4% 2 96% 4% 95% 5% 53% 15% % 59% 2% 2% 83% - 4% - 29% % 53% 13% 22% 84% 16% 84% 16% 89% 56% % 6-5% % 13% 87% 67% 33% 8 19% 32% % 8 < 25% - 4% % 6% 5 4 7% 2% 22% 89% 3% 8% 86% 14% 63% 33% % 76% % % 26% 72% % 77% 5% 96% % 2% 88% 8% 67% 27% 47% % 7 23% 92% 2% 25 Comparison of vehicle characteristics between domestically produced and import vehicles ),8,* 8 *,8,* 8, +%,8!%,+% K1/L%M1:@42%60@7% +(%,%,*",% )")% '"+% "+%,"!% **,+*,!*,)*,*,** +*!* )* * ("(% 8,* & + (! 8 ) ',!)% 8,!("!% '8 %,% *"8% * GFF2E/:?2%6D7%,(+8&%,% '% XFDL:?1P%GX%6BQ,**0D7%!,"8% 9FN1/V2FVM1:@42%W.JF%6MQ0@7% + +'%, )% % *&"+%,!,) 8% "8% '* RF/ST6U"D7% 9FN1/%%60N7%,!,* &8!(% *** *$%,+!*** +(% *$% +*** )*** )*$% '% >?@:?3:A6B7%!*$% IFD15J;%GH112% -.O%3E11P%60DQ47% 9/:;6<3=7% +*$%,****!$% -./012%34./15%6$7%,**$%,8% &'"()$% CDEF/2%GH112%!% )% % 26 13
14 )*+,&'(% *,, & + + ' <0A51 * * L>2C/5 ( ) ( MNBH ) + & $! % % % $% ) =F4520F4CT 90F8F@0@7 ( ' =F452U0@2452T 90F8F@0@7 + + % * * ) & ) ( ' ( ' ( 2@1<0; 7@/51 9SG1P51 FG2@1G44C G7/=1G25D ' BC<1=D * ( ' EF45GD5D /52104 & 6=5754 & ( % % % $! $!,,, &, + ' + ( * K>2C/5 + * <0A51 + * ) ) ( ( L>2C/5 MNBH 6NBH ) ) ( HIJ 9G1<@15201./&0-")(1)2-"%)) 3&'%%'($%)%*$4"4)) $! :;20.:25<.:=;:4 >:=;: * 6;:494;29? ) ( ) ( ' ( ' C;20.:89 & ' & $% % % % :52104;<=0>?@54.=A2@15, + * BC<1=D * ( ' EF45GD5D /52104 & 6=5754 & ( PG704=F5 D=1592 =FO5980F 90..0F>1G=4 Q6=5754R 9G1<@15201 HIJ.@48>/0=F2 =FO5980F ' % % 7=FP45>/0=F2 =FO5980F + ) ) 27 D;1 D=5754 =FO5980F $!, $%:"(($'% $%&'(% $! % % & % $! + & ' D;10& ( ' =F>4=F5 & D;10' * * ) & ' ' PG704=F5 D=1592 =FO5980F 90..0F>1G=4 Q6=5754R % $! *.@48>/0=F2 =FO5980F ' $%&'%%'($%)*+,-)) 5"673%18%0'$,*93:% $! 7=FP45>/0=F2 =FO5980F ) ) % -.$/%01*2+"3.41 * & )*+,&'(% + & & D=5754 =FO5980F + F02 G//4=9G<45 *, + :52104;<=0>?@54.=A2@15, I0DG2G,, $! $!, $%:"(($'% $%&'(% ;,3%,*&.<% $! 5"673%18%/.$/%(3%0'$,*93% ' Comparison of efficiency technology status between domestic and import fleet $! ) ( & =F>4=F5 & -.$/%46,*+% ( ) 6NBH ' ' $! $! K>2C/5 + 5"673%18%0'$,*93:% -.$/%01*2+"3.41 $! $!, % % % 14
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