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1 It was a strong quarter for US stocks as the S&P 500 held on to gains of over 5% after staging a late month rebound. Now with Q2 kicking off today, will the party keep going, or will the hangover set in. Based on the market s typical seasonality, it is looking like the bulls will be reaching for a bit of aspirin in the first half of the month ahead of the tax deadline. As shown in the table and chart below, the S&P 500 s median return from the close on 4/3 through 4/17 over the last ten years has been a gain of just 0.14% with positive returns half of the time. Nothing bad, but nothing to write home about either. Of the eleven sectors, five out of eleven have seen gains during this period. Leading the way higher, Energy is in front with a median gain of 2.07% and positive returns 60% of the time. Given its performance in Q1 this year, Energy could use a break. The only other sector besides Energy that has been up over 1% during this period is Health Care, which unlike Energy, had a great Q1. On the downside, Telecom Services is the only sector that has seen a decline of more than 1% during this period. Along with Telecom Services, other sectors that have been down during this period include Utilities (-0.40%) and Technology (-0.32%). In terms of consistency, Energy and Health Care have been the most consistent to the upside but have only been up in six out of ten years. The only sectors that have been up less than half of the time are Telecom Services, Real Estate, and Consumer Discretionary. S&P 500 and Sector Returns - Next Two Weeks (4/3-4/17) Sector Change (%) Positive Outperforms S&P Energy Health Care Materials Con Staples S&P Financials Industrials Cons Discret Real Estate Technology Utilities Telecom Svcs S&P 500 Performance (%) Next Two Weeks Copyright 2017, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. Bespoke Investment Page 1 of 8 Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

2 The table below lists the 15 best and worst performing S&P 500 stocks over the last ten years in the period from 4/3 through 4/17. Range Resources (RRC) tops the list with a median gain of 5.07% and positive returns in six out of ten years. RRS is also the only stock in the S&P 500 that has seen a median gain of more than 5% (and just barely at that). One theme that really sticks out on this week s list of winners is the Energy sector. Of the fifteen stocks highlighted, all but four are from that sector. To the downside, not a single stock in the S&P 500 has been down more than 5% on a median basis during the upcoming two-week period, and only one (Valero VLO) has been down more than 4%. One of the interesting names on the list of losers is Signet (SIG). While it was a mainstay on the list of winners during the month of March, April hasn t been kind to the stock, especially in more recent history. As shown below, the stock has been the third worst performer during the upcoming two week period with declines in each of the last six years. S&P 500 and Performing Stocks - Next Two Weeks (4/3-4/17) Ticker Sector Change (%) Positive Outperforms S&P RRC Energy CHK Energy XEC Energy COP Energy FSLR Technology NFX Energy CMG Cons Discret TSCO Cons Discret SWN Energy NOV Energy DVN Energy LUK Financials PXD Energy CXO Energy n/a CVX Energy VLO Energy HUM Health Care SIG Cons Discret FLIR Technology CF Materials FL Cons Discret CME Financials RCL Cons Discret CTSH Technology CNC Health Care HIG Financials WY Real Estate URBN Cons Discret ETFC Financials HOLX Health Care Page 2 of 8

3 Below and on the following page are annual charts of the S&P 500 over each of the last ten years ( ). In each chart, we have highlighted the current period in either red or green depending on whether or not the S&P 500 was up or down from 4/3 4/ S&P 500: 2007 S&P 500: /3/07 3/3/07 5/3/07 7/3/07 9/3/07 11/3/ /2/08 3/2/08 5/2/08 7/2/08 9/2/08 11/2/ S&P 500: 2009 S&P 500: /2/09 3/2/09 5/2/09 7/2/09 9/2/09 11/2/ /4/10 3/4/10 5/4/10 7/4/10 9/4/10 11/4/ S&P 500: 2011 S&P 500: /3/11 3/3/11 5/3/11 7/3/11 9/3/11 11/3/ /3/12 3/3/12 5/3/12 7/3/12 9/3/12 11/3/12 Page 3 of 8

4 1850 S&P 500: 2013 S&P 500: /2/13 3/2/13 5/2/13 7/2/13 9/2/13 11/2/ /2/14 3/2/14 5/2/14 7/2/14 9/2/14 11/2/ S&P 500: 2015 S&P 500: /2/15 3/2/15 5/2/15 7/2/15 9/2/15 11/2/ /3/16 3/3/16 5/3/16 7/3/16 9/3/16 11/3/16 S&P 500: /1/17 3/1/17 5/1/17 7/1/17 9/1/17 11/1/17 Page 4 of 8

5 S&P Cons Discret Sector (79 Stocks) Sector CMG TSCO NFLX ULTA n/a HAS SIG FL RCL URBN DRI Cons Staples Sector (35 Stocks) Percent of Time Last Ten Years - Percent Change (%) Sector TAP EL TSN SJM CVS MJN n/a n/a STZ COST DPS n/a n/a WFM Energy Sector (33 Stocks) Sector RRC CHK XEC COP NFX VLO TSO RIG OXY APC Page 5 of 8

6 S&P 500 Percent of Time Last Ten Years - Percent Change (%) Financials Sector (60 Stocks) Sector LUK C CMA AIG MTB CME HIG ETFC GS PRU Health Care Sector (56 Stocks) Sector AMGN ISRG EW ENDP A HUM CNC HOLX VAR AET Industrials Sector (62 Stocks) Sector JBHT UAL GWW PH CHRW CMI RHI MAS GD ROP Page 6 of 8

7 S&P Materials Sector (23 Stocks) Sector ECL SHW PPG EMN BLL CF MOS VMC IP SEE Real Estate Sector (29 Stocks) Percent of Time Last Ten Years - Percent Change (%) Sector MAC O HCP IRM VNO WY MAA AIV GGP UDR Technology/Telecom Sector (66 Stocks) Sector FSLR NVDA LVLT GPN INTC FLIR CTSH SWKS GOOGL JNPR Page 7 of 8

8 S&P Utilities Sector (28 Stocks) Sector n/a n/a n/a PPL AES NRG DTE AWK n/a n/a ES EXC NEE D ETR Explanation The Bespoke Stock Seasonality Report analyzes the short-term tendencies of the S&P 500 and each of its components on a rolling two-week basis looking at the last ten years worth of data. Page one of the report summarizes the historical return of the S&P 500 and all eleven sectors over the last ten years, including the average return over the last ten years (A), the percentage of time each sector/index is positive (B), the frequency with which it outperforms the S&P 500 (C), and finally the performance during each of the last ten years (D). At the bottom of page one we also show the same calculations for the fifteen S&P 500 stocks that have historically performed best and worst during the period analyzed. Pages five through eight of the Bespoke Stock Seasonality Report looks at the five best and worst performing stocks over the next two weeks by sector. Here we present the same calculations as outlined on page one. For the purposes of this report, however, we have combined the Technology and Telecom Services due to the fact that the Telecom Services sector contains less than ten stocks. Page 8 of 8