Enclosed are 30 copies of Florida Municipal Power Agency's April 2008 Ten-Year Site Plan.

Transcription

1 Florid Municipl Powr Agncy Tom Rdy Assistnt Gnrl Mngr, Powr Rsourcs Mrch 28,28 Ms. Blnc By Florid Public Srvic Commission Buru of Elctric Rlibility Cpitl Circl Offic Cntr 254 Shumrd Ok BIvd. Tllhss, FL Dr Ms. Byo: Enclosd r 3 copis of Florid Municipl Powr Agncy's April 28 TnYr Sit Pln. Th TnYr Sit Pln informtion is providd in ccordnc with Florid Public Srvic Commission rul , , nd , which rquir crtin lctric utilitis in th Stt of Florid to submit TnYr Sit Pln. Th pln is rquird to dscrib th stimtd lctric powr gnrting nds nd to idntify th gnrl loction of ny proposd nrtrm powr plnt sits s of Dcmbr 31,27. If you should hv ny qustions, pls fl fr to contct m t Sincrly, W cob! P CTR Enclosur n Thoms E. Rdy Assistnt Gnrl Mngr, Powr mh..i op: cc: Michl Hff (FPSC) RCA SCR SGA SEC Frd Brynt (FMPA) Chris Gowdr (FMPA) 8553 Commodity Circl I Orlndo, FL T. (47) I Toll Fr (888) F. (47) I w.fmp.com tom.rdyofmp.com

2 Florid Municipl Powr Agncy Florid Public Srvic Commission April 1,28 Community Powr + Sttwid Strngth

3 Community Powr + Sttwid Strngth

4 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Tbl of Contnts Sction Sction Sction Sction Tbl of Contnts Excutiv Summry... ES1 Dscription of FMPA FMPA AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct FMPA Othr Gnrtion Projcts Summry of Projcts Dscription of Existing Fcllibs ARP Supplysid Rsourcs ARP Trnsmission Systm Mmbr Trnsmission Systms ARP Trnsmssion Agrmnts Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct Introduction Lod Forcst Procss Lod Forcst Ovrviw Mthodology Modl Spcifiction Projction of NEL nd Pk Dmnd Dt Sourcs Historicl Mmbr Rtil Sls Dt Wthr Dt Economic Dt Rl Elctricity Pric Dt Ovrviw of Rsults Bs Cs Forcst WthrRltd Uncrtinty of th Forcst Lod Forcst Schduls Rnwbl Rsourcs nd Consrvtion Progrms. 41 Introduction Rnwbl Rsourcs Solr Photovoltic Biofuls Lndfill Gs Plsm Arc Consrvtion Progrms Enrgy Audits Progrm Compct Florscnt Light Bulbs LED Trffic Signls Enrgy Str@ Progrm Prticiption TOC1

5 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Tbl of Contnts Sction Sction DmndSid Mngmnt Distributd Gnrtion Systm Loss Rduction Forcst of Fcilitis Rquirmnts. 51 ARP Plnning Prccss Plnnd ARF' Gnrting Fcility Rquirmnts Cpcity nd Purchs Powr Rquirmnts Summry of Currnt nd Futur ARF' Rsourc Cpcity Sit nd Fcihty Dscriptions. 61 List of Figurs, Tbls nd Rquird Schduls Tbl ES1 Tbl ES2 Figur ESI Figur 11 Tbl 11 Tbl 12 Tbl 13 Tbl 14 Tbl 15 Tbl 21 Schdul 1 Figur 3 1 Schdul 2.1 Schdul 2.2 Schdul 2.3 Schdul 3.1 Schdul 3.2 Schdul 3.3 Schdul 3.l Schdul 3.2 Schdul 3.3 Schdul 3. Ib Schdul 3.2b Schdul 3.3b Schdul 4 FMPA Summr 28 Cpcity Rsourcs... FMPA Plnnd Expnsion Rsourcs... ARP Mmbr nd FMF'A Powr Supply Rsourc Loctions... ES1 ES2 ES3 ARP Mmbr Citis St. Luci Projct Prticipnts Stnton Projct Prticipnts TriCity Projct Prticipnts Stnton 11 Projct Prticipnts Summry of FMPA Powr Supply Projct Prticipnts ARP SupplySid Rsourcs Summr ARP Existing Gnrting Rsourcs s of Dcmbr 31, Lod Forcst Procss History nd Forcst of Enrgy Consumption nd Numbr of Customrs by Customr Clss History nd Forcst of Enrgy Consumption nd Numbr of Customrs by Customr Clss History nd Forcst of Enrgy Consumption nd Numbr of Customrs by Customr Clss History nd Forcst of Summr Pk Dmnd (MW) Bs Cs History nd Forcst of Wintr Pk Dmnd (MW) Bs Cs History nd Forcst of Annul Nt Enrgy for Lod (GWh) Bs Cs Forcst of Summr Pk Dmnd (MW) High Cs Forcst of Wintr Pk Dmnd (MW) High Cs Forcst of Annul Nt Enrgy for Lod (GWh) High Cs Forcst of Summr Pk Dmnd (MW) Low Cs Forcst of Wintr Pk Dmnd (MW) Low Cs Forcst of Annul Nt Enrgy for Lod (GWh) Low Cs Prvious Yr nd 2Yr Forcst of Pk Dmnd nd Nt Enrgy for Lod by Month... 32

6 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Tbl of Contnts Tbl 5 1 Tbl 52 Schdul 5 Schdul 6.1 Schdul 6.2 Schdul 7.1 Schdul 7.2 Schdul 8 Schdul 9.1 Schdul 9.2 Schdul 9.3 Schdul 9.4 Schdul 9.5 Schdul 1 Summry of AllRquirmnts Projct Rsourc Summr Cpcity Summry of AllRquirmnts Projct Rsourc Wintr Cpcity Ful Rquirmnts AllRquirmnts Projct Enrgy Sourcs (GWh) AllRquirmnts Projct Enrgy Sourcs (%) AllRquirmnts Projct Forcst of Cpcity, Dmnd, nd Schduld Mintnnc t Tim of Summr Pk Forcst of Cpcity, Dmnd, nd Schduld Mintnnc t Tim of Wintr P Plnnd nd Prospctiv Gnrting Fcility Additions nd Chngs Sttus Rport nd Spcifictions of Proposd Gnrting Fcilitis Sttus Rport nd Spcifictions of Proposd Gnrting Fcilitis Sttus Rport nd Spcifictions of Proposd Gnrting Fcilitis Sttus Rport nd Spcifictions of Proposd Gnrting Fcilitis Sttus Rport nd Spcifictions of Proposd Gnrting Fcilitis Sttus Rport nd Spcifictions of Proposd Dirctly Associtd Trnsmission Lins Appndics Appndix I Appndix I1 Appndix I11 List of Abbrvitions Othr Mmbr Trnsmission Informtion Additionl Rsrv Mrgin Informtion i TOC3

7 Community Powr + Sttwid Strngth LL

8 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Excutiv Summry Excutiv Summry Th following informtion is providd in ccordnc with Florid Public Srvic Commission (PSC) Ruls , , nd , which rquir crtin lctric utilitis in th Stt of Florid to submit TnYr Sit Pln (TYSP). Th TYSP is rquird to dscrib th stimtd lctric powr gnrting nds nd to idntify th gnrl loction nd typ of ny proposd nrtrm gnrtion cpcity nd trnsmission dditions. Th Florid Municipl Powr Agncy (FMPA or th Agncy) is projctorintd, joint ction gncy. FMPA s dirct rsponsibility for powr supply plnning cn b sprtd into two prts. First, for th AllRquirmnts Projct (ARP), whr th Agncy hs committd to supplying ll of th powr rquirmnts of 15 citis, th Agncy is solly rsponsibl for powr supply plnning. Scond, for mmbr systms tht r not in th ARP, th Agncy s rol hs bn to vlut joint ction opportunitis nd mk th findings vilbl to th mmbrship whrby ch mmbr cn lct whthr or not to prticipt. This rport prsnts plnning informtion for th ARP nd on th othr xisting Agncy projcts. Th ARP nd othr xisting Agncy summr cpcity rsourcs for th yr 28 totl 1,916 MW. This cpcity is comprisd of xcludd nuclr rsourcs, mmbrownd rsourcs, ARPownd rsourcs, nd purchs powr, nd is summrizd blow in Tbl ES 1. Tbl ES1 FMPA Summr 28 Cpcity Rsourcs Cpcity Nuclr ARP Ownrship Mmbr Ownrship Purchs Powr 41 Totl 28 ARP Rsourcs 1,916 ES1

9 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Excutiv Summry FMPA hs totl of 913 MW of powr supply projcts currntly undr construction or plnnd for construction. Futur ARP TYSP xpnsion rsourcs r prsntd blow in Tbl ES2. Tbl ES2 FMPA Plnnd Expnsion Rsourcs Unit Dscription Trsur Cost Enrgy Cntr Unit 1 Cn Islnd Unit 4 Pking Unit Pking Unit Pking Unit Totl Commrcil Oprtion (MMPM 5/ /12 6/13 6/15 ; I Summr Cpcity (MW) 913 FMPA will soon dd cpcity from th Trsur Cost Enrgy Cntr (TCEC), nturl gs fird 296 MW combind cycl unit tht FMPA is dvloping t sit in Fort Pirc. FMPA rcivd sit crtifiction in Jun 26, nd physicl construction bgn on TCEC Unit 1 in August 26. Construction is on schdul, with n insrvic dt for TCEC Unit 1 of My 28. FMPA issud Rqust for Powr Supply Proposls (Powr Supply RF ) in Jun 27. Th purpos of th Powr Supply RFP ws to dtrmin whthr sufficint nd costffctiv sourc of cpcity nd nrgy could b obtind s rplcmnt for Cn Islnd Unit 4, plnnd for commrcil oprtion in 211. No bids wr rcivd in rspons to this RFP. FMPA plns to submit Nd for Powr ppliction (Nd Dtrmintion) for Cn Islnd Unit 4 to th PSC in mid28. FMPA will continu to pursu sufficint nd costffctiv ltrntivs to th pking units tht r plnnd for commrcil oprtion in 212, 213, nd 215. Bsd on th outcom of ths invstigtions, FMPA will dtrmin whthr to dly th insrvic dts for ths units. FMPA prticipts in Grn Enrgy through rnwbl powr purchss nd mmbr consrvtion progrms. FMPA rcivs rnwbl nrgy from two rnwbl powr ES2

10 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Excutiv Summry purchss FMPA rcivs powr from cognrtion plnt ownd nd oprtd by U.S. Sugr Corportion tht is fuld by sugr bgss, byproduct of sugr production. Th scond rnwbl rsourc utilizs lndfill gs providd by th Orng County Lndfill to supplmnt th col rquirmnts of th Stnton Enrgy Cntr, which is prtilly ownd by FMPA. FMPA nd its mmbrs continu to invstigt dditionl sourcs of Grn Enrgy through rnwbl powr projcts or consrvtion progrms. A loction mp of th ARP mmbrs nd FMPA s powr rsourcs is shown in Figur ES1 blow. Figur ES1 ARP Mmbr nd FMPA Powr Supply Rsourc Loctions ldkr wid Flrb,trl Progrcss E iic r&:f Rosw cm All Rquirmnts Propt IARPJ Mmbr * ARP Supply Rsourcs G. SnlllR I) ES3

11 Florid Municipl Powr Agncy Sction 1. Dscrbtion of FMPA Community Powr + Sttwid Strngth

12 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of FMPA Sction 1 Dscription of FMPA 1.1 FMPA Florid Municipl Powr Agncy (FMPA) is govrnmntl wholsl powr compny ownd by municipl lctric utilitis. FMPA provids conomis of scl in powr gnrtion nd rltd srvics to support communityownd lctric utilitis. FMPA ws crtd on Fbrury 24, 1978, by th signing of th Intrlocl Agrmnt mong its originl mmbrs to provid mns by which its mmbrs could cooprtivly gin mutul dvntg nd mt prsnt nd projctd lctric nrgy rquirmnts. This grmnt spcifid th purposs nd uthority of FMPA. FMPA ws formd undr th provisions of Articl VII, Sction 1 of th Florid Constitution, th Joint Powr Act, Chptr 361, Prt 11, Florid Sttuts, nd th Florid Intrlocl Cooprtion Act of 1969, Sction 163.1, Florid Sttuts. Th Florid Constitution nd th Joint Powr Act provid th uthority for municipl lctric utilitis to join togthr for th joint finncing, constructing, cquiring, mnging, oprting, utilizing, nd owning of lctric powr plnts. Th Intrlocl Cooprtion Act uthorizs municipl lctric utilitis to cooprt with ch othr on th bsis of mutul dvntg to provid srvics nd fcilitis in mnnr nd in form of govrnmntl orgniztion tht will ccord bst with gogrphic, conomic, popultion, nd othr fctors influncing th nds nd dvlopmnt of locl communitis. Ech city commission, utility commission, or uthority tht is signtory to th Intrlocl Agrmnt hs th right to ppoint on mmbr to FMPA s Bord of Dirctors, th govrning body of FMPA. Th Bord hs th rsponsibility of pproving FMPA s projct budgts (xcpt for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct budgt which is pprovd by th Excutiv Committ), pproving nw projcts nd projct finncing (xcpt for AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct finncing which is pprovd by th Excutiv Committ), hiring Gnrl Mngr nd Gnrl Counsl, stblishing bylws tht govrn how FMPA oprts, nd crting policis tht implmnt such bylws. Chirprson, Vic Chirprson, Scrtry, nd Trsurr. At its nnul mting, th Bord lcts Th Excutiv Committ consists of 15 mmbrs, rprsnting th 15 prticipnts in th All Rquirmnts Powr Supply Projct (ARP). Th Excutiv Committ hs th rsponsibility of 11

13 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of FMPA pproving th ARP budgt nd gncy gnrl budgt, pproving nd finncing ARP projcts, pproving ARP xpnditurs nd contrcts, nd govrns nd mngs th businss nd ffirs of th ARP. Chirprson. At its nnul mting, th Excutiv Committ lcts Chirprson nd Vic 1.2 AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct FMPA dvlopd th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct to scur n dqut, conomicl, nd rlibl supply of lctric cpcity nd nrgy to mt th nds of th ARP mmbrs. Fiftn FMPA mmbr municipls form th ARP. Th loctions of th ARP mmbrs r shown in Figur 1 1. Bushnll, Grn Cov Springs, Jcksonvill Bch, Lsburg, nd Ocl wr th originl ARP mmbrs. Th ARP bgn dlivring cpcity nd nrgy to ths originl fiv prticipnts in Th rmining tn mmbrs joind s follows: 1991 Th City of Clwiston; 1997 Th Citis of Vro Bch nd Strk; 1998 Fort Pirc Utilitis Authority (FPUA) nd th City of Ky Wst; 2 Th City of Fort Md, th Town of Hvn, nd th City of Nwbrry; nd 22 Kissimm Utility Authority (KUA) nd th City of Lk Worth. Th City of Vro Bch hs providd notic to FMPA to xrcis thir right to modify thir ARP full rquirmnts mmbrship bginning Jnury 1, 2 IO. 12

14 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of FMPA Figur 11 ARP Mmbr Citis ARP mmbrs r rquird to purchs ll of thir cpcity nd nrgy from th ARP. ARP mmbrs tht own gnrting cpcity r rquird to sll th lctric cpcity nd nrgy of thir gnrting rsourcs to FMPA. In xchng for th sl of thir lctric cpcity nd nrgy, th ownrs rciv cpcity nd nrgy (C&E) pymnts. All ARP mmbrs r supplid 1 prcnt of thir ARP cpcity nd nrgy rquirmnts from FMPA t th vrg cpcity nd nrgy rt of th ARP. Following is brif dscription of ch of th ARP mmbr citis. Th informtion providd is bsd on th Florid Municipl Elctric Assocition's 27 mmbrship dirctory ( nd dditionl informtion obtind during 27. Bushnll Th City of Bushnll is loctd in cntrl Florid in Sumtr County. Th City joind th ARP in My Vinc Runo is th City Mngr nd Bruc Hickl is th Dirctor of Utilitis. Th City's srvic r is pproximtly 1.4 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th City of Bushnll, pls visit Cl wiston Th City of Clwiston is loctd in southrn Florid in Hndry County. Th City joind th ARP in My Kvin McCrthy is th Utilitis Dirctor. Th City's srvic r is pproximtly 13

15 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of FMPA 5 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th City of Clwiston, pls visit Fort Md Th City of Fort Md is loctd in cntrl Florid in Polk County. Th City joind th ARP in Fbrury 2. Frd Hillird is th City Mngr. Th City s srvic r is pproximtly 5 squr mils. FMPA srvs cpcity nd nrgy rquirmnts for th City vi th full rquirmnts grmnt currntly in plc with Tmp Elctric Compny (TECO). Whn th Fort MdlTECO grmnt trmints in Jnury 29, FMPA will srv th City from th ARP s portfolio of powr supply rsourcs. For mor informtion bout th City of Fort Md, pls visit Fort Pirc Utilitis Authoritv Th City of Fort Pirc is loctd on Florid s st cost in St. Luci County. FPUA joind th ARP in Jnury Willim Thiss is th Dirctor of Utilitis nd Thoms W. Richrds is Dirctor of Elctric & Gs Systms. FPUA s srvic r is pproximtly 35 squr mils. For mor informtion bout Fort Pirc Utilitis Authority, pls visit Grn Cov Sprins Th City of Grn Cov Springs is loctd in northst Florid in Cly County. Th City joind th ARP in My Grgg Griffin is th Dirctor of Elctric Utility. Th City s srvic r is pproximtly 25 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th City of Grn Cov Springs, pls visit www. grncovsprings.com. Town of Hvn Th Town of Hvn is loctd in th pnhndl of Florid in Gdsdn County. Th Town joind th ARP in July 2. Howrd McKinnon is th Town Mngr. Th Town s srvic r is pproximtly 5 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th Town of Hvn, pls visit Jcksonvill Bch Th City of Jcksonvill Bch s lctric dprtmnt, mor commonly known s Bchs Enrgy Srvics (Bchs), is loctd in northst Florid nd srvs customrs in Duvl nd St. Johns Countis. Bchs joind th ARP in My Gorg D. Forbs is th City Mngr nd Don Ouchly is th Utilitis Dirctor. Bchs srvic r is pproximtly 45 squr mils. For mor informtion bout Bchs, pls visit 14

16 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of FMPA Utilitv Bord, Citv of Kv Wst Th Utility Bord of th City of Ky Wst, lso known s Kys Enrgy Srvics (KEYS), provids lctric srvic to th lowr Kys in Monro County. KEYS joind th ARP in April Lou Hrnndz is Chirmn of th Utility Bord nd Lynn Tjd is th Gnrl Mngr nd CEO. KEYS srvic r is pproximtly 45 squr mils. For mor informtion bout Kys Enrgy Srvics, pls visit Kissimm Utilitv Authoritv Kissimm is loctd in cntrl Florid in Oscol County. Kissimm Utility Authority (KUA) joind th ARP in Octobr 22. Jms C. Wlsh is th Prsidnt & Gnrl Mngr, CEO, nd Lrry Mttm is Vic Prsidnt of Powr Supply. KUA s srvic r is pproximtly 85 squr mils. For mor informtion bout Kissimm Utility Authority, pls visit Lk Worth Lk Worth is loctd on Florid s st cost in Plm Bch County. Lk Worth joind th ARP in Octobr 22. Lur Hnnh is th Assistnt City MngrLntrim City Mngr. Lk Worth s srvic r is pproximtly 12.5 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th City of Lk Worth, pls visit Lsburg Th City of Lsburg is loctd in cntrl Florid in Lk County. Th City joind th ARP in My Jy Evns is th City Mngr nd Pul Klv is th Dirctor of Elctric Dprtmnt. Th City s srvic r is pproximtly 5 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th City of Lsburg, pls visit N wbrrv Th City of Nwbrry is loctd in north cntrl Florid in Alchu County. Th City joind th ARP in Dcmbr 2. Blin Suggs is th Utilitis nd Public Works Dirctor. Th City s srvic r is pproximtly 6 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th City of Nwbrry, pls visit Ocl Th City of Ocl is loctd in cntrl Florid in Mrion County. Th City joind th ARP in My Pul Nugnt is th City Mngr, nd Rbcc Mtty is th Dirctor of Elctric 15

17 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of FMPA Utility. Th City s srvic r is pproximtly 161 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th City of Ocl, pls visit Strk Strk is loctd in north Florid in Brdford County. Th City joind th ARP in Octobr Ricky Thompson is th City Oprtions Mngr. Th City s srvic r is pproximtly 6.5 squr mils. For mor informtion bout th City of Strk, pls visit Vro Bch Th City of Vro Bch is loctd on Florid s st cost in Indin Rivr County. Vro Bch joind th ARP in Jun Jms M. Gbbrd is th City Mngr. Th City s srvic r is pproximtly 4 squr mils. On Dcmbr 9, 24, th City of Vro Bch snt FMPA its Notic of Estblishmnt of Contrct Rt of Dlivry. Th ffctiv dt of th notic is Jnury 1, 21. Th ffct of th notic is tht th ARP will no longr utiliz th City s gnrting rsourcs, nd th ARP will commnc srving Vro Bch on prtil rquirmnts bsis. Th mount of th prtil rquirmnts will b dtrmind in 29. For mor informtion bout th City of Vro Bch, pls visit FMPA Othr Gnrtion Projcts In ddition to th ARP, FMPA hs four othr powr supply projcts s discussd blow. St. Luci Proict On My 12, 1983, FMPA purchsd from Florid Powr & Light (FPL) n 8.86 prcnt undividd ownrship intrst in St. Luci Unit No. 2 (th St. Luci Projct), nuclr gnrting unit. Th St. Luci Unit No. 2 ws dclrd in commrcil oprtion on August 8, 1983, nd in Firm Oprtion, s dfind in th prticiption grmnt, on August 14, Fiftn of FMPA s mmbrs r prticipnts in th St. Luci Projct, with th following ntitlmnts s shown in Tbl

18 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of FMPA Tbl 11 St. Luci Projct Prticipnts lcity Alchu Fort Md Grn Cov Springs Jcksonvill Bch Lk Worth Moor Hvn Nw Smyrn Bch Vro Bch % Entitlmnt YO Entitlmnt City Clwiston 2.22 Fort Pirc Homstd Kissimm 9.45 Lsburg Nwbrry.184 Strk Stnton Proict On August 13, 1984, FMPA purchsd from th Orlndo Utilitis Commission (OUC) prcnt undividd ownrship intrst in Stnton Unit No. 1. Stnton Unit No. I wnt into commrcil oprtion July 1, Six of FMPA s mmbrs r prticipnts in th Stnton Projct with ntitlmnts s shown in Tbl 12. Tbl 12 Stnton Projct Prticipnts )City I %Entitlmnt ICity I % Entitlmnt 3 Fort Pirc Kissimm Strk Homstd Lk Worth Vro Bch TriCitv Proict On Mrch 22, 1985, th FMPA Bord pprovd th grmnts ssocitd with th TriCity Projct. Th TriCity Projct involvs th purchs from OUC of n dditionl prcnt undividd ownrship intrst in Stnton Unit No. 1. Thr of FMPA s mmbrs r prticipnts in th TriCity Projct with th following ntitlmnts s shown in Tbl

19 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Stnton II Proict City % Entitlmnt Fort Pirc Homstd Ky Wst r Tbl 13 TriCity Projct Prticipnts On Jun 6, 1991, undr th Stnton I1 Projct structur, FMPA purchsd from OUC prcnt undividd ownrship intrst in OUC s Stnton Unit No. 2, col fird unit virtully idnticl to Stnton Unit No. 1. Th unit commncd commrcil oprtion in Jun Svn of FMPA s mmbrs r prticipnts in th Stnton I1 Projct with th following ntitlmnts s shown in Tbl 14. Tbl 14 Stnton I1 Projct Prticipnts City % Entitlmnt City Fort Pirc Homstd Ky Wst Kissimm St. Cloud Strk Vro Bch Dscription of FMPA % Entitlmnt

20 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of FMPA 1.4 Summry of Projcts Tbl 15 provids summry of FMPA mmbr projct prticiption s of Jnury 1, 28. Tbl 15 Summry of FMPA Powr Supply Projct Prticipnts [I] Othr FMPA nonprojct prticipnts includ th City of Brtow, th City of Blountstown, th City of Chtthooch, Ginsvill Rgionl Utilitis, City of Lklnd Elctric & Wtr, th City of Mt. Dor, Orlndo Utilitis Commission, th City of Quincy, th City of Wuchul, nd th City of Williston. 19

21 Community Powr + Sttwid Strngth

22 B D FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of Existing Fcilitis B D D m m I) m I) I) m I) I) I) Sction ARP Supplysid Rsourcs Dscription of Existing Fcilitis Th ARP supplysid rsourcs consist of divrsifid mix of gnrtion ownrship, purchs powr, nd ful supply. Th supply sid rsourcs for th ARP for th 28 summr sson r shown by ownrship cpcity in Tbl 2 1. Tbl 21 ARP Supplysid Rsourcs Summr 28 1) Nuclr 2) ARP Ownrship summr Cpcity Existing 569 Nw 296 Sub Totl ARP Ownrship 865 3) Mmbr Ownrship KES 38 KUA 291 Lk Worth 9 Vro Bch I 38 Sub Totl Mmbr Ownrship ) Purchs Powr 41 Totl 28 ARP Rsourcs 1,916 Th rsourc ctgoris shown in Tbl 2 1 r dscribd in mor dtil blow. 1) Nuclr Gnrtion: A numbr of th ARP mmbrs own smll mounts of cpcity in Progrss Enrgy Florid s Crystl Rivr Unit 3. Likwis, numbr of ARP mmbrs prticipt in th St. Luci Projct, which provids thm cpcity nd nrgy from St. Luci Unit No. 2. Cpcity from ths two nuclr units is clssifid s xcludd rsourcs in th ARP. As such, th ARP mmbrs py thir own costs ssocitd with th nuclr units nd rciv th bnfits of th cpcity nd nrgy from ths units. Th ARP provids th blnc of cpcity nd nrgy rquirmnts for th mmbrs with 21

23 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of Existing Fcilitis prticiption in ths nuclr units. Th nuclr units r considrd in th cpcity plnning for th ARP. 2) ARP Ownd Gnrtion: This ctgory includs gnrtion tht is solly or jointly ownd by th ARP s wll s ARP mmbr prticiption. Such ARP ownrship cpcity includs th Stnton Enrgy Cntr (including th Stnton, TriCity, nd Stnton I1 projcts, s wll s Stnton A), Indin Rivr, Cn Islnd, nd Stock Islnd units. 3) Mmbr Ownd Gnrtion: Cpcity includd in this ctgory is gnrtion ownd by th ARP mmbrs ithr solly or jointly. Th ARP purchss this cpcity from th ARP mmbrs nd thn commits nd disptchs th gnrtion to mt th totl rquirmnts of th ARP. 4) Purchs Powr Gnrtion: This ctgory includs powr purchsd dirctly by th ARP s wll s xisting purchs powr contrcts of individul ARP mmbrs which wr ntrd into prior to th mmbr joining th ARP. Purchs powr gnrtion includs cpcity nd nrgy rcivd from othr supplirs such s Progrss Enrgy Florid (PEF), Florid Powr nd Light (FPL), Clpin, nd Southrn Compny. Informtion rgrding xisting ARP gnrting fcilitis s of Dcmbr 3 1, 27, cn b found in Schdul 1 t th nd of this sction. 2.2 ARP Trnsmission Systm Th Florid lctric trnsmission grid is intrconnctd by high voltg trnsmission lins rnging from 69 KV to 5 KV. Florid s lctric grid is tid to th rst of th continntl Unitd Stts t th FloriddGorgidAlbm intrfc. Florid Powr nd Light (FPL), Progrss Enrgy Florid (PEF), JEA nd th City of Tllhss own th trnsmission ti lins t th FloriddGorgidAlbm intrfc. ARP mmbrs trnsmission lins r intrconnctd with trnsmission fcilitis ownd by FPL, PEF, Orlndo Utilitis Commission (OUC), JEA, Sminol Elctric Cooprtiv, Florid Kys Elctric Cooprtiv Assocition (FKEC), nd Tmp Elctric Compny (TECO). Cpcity nd nrgy (C&E) rsourcs for th ARP r trnsmittd to th ARP mmbrs utilizing th trnsmission systms of FPL, PEF, TECO, nd OUC. C&E rsourcs for th Citis of Jcksonvill Bch, Grn Cov Springs, Clwiston, Fort Pirc, Ky Wst, Lk Worth, Strk nd Vro Bch r dlivrd by FPL s trnsmission systm. C&E rsourcs for th Citis of Ocl, Lsburg, Bushnll, Nwbrry, nd Hvn r dlivrd by th PEF trnsmission systm. C&E rsourcs for KUA r dlivrd by th trnsmission systms of FPL, PEF nd 22

24 ~ I) I) m I) I) I) 1) m Q FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of Existing Fcilitis OUC. C&E rsourcs for th City of Fort Md r dlivrd by th PEF nd TECO trnsmission systms Mmbr Trnsmission Systms Fort Pirc Utilitv Authoritv Fort Pirc Utility Authority (FPUA) is municiplly ownd utility oprting lctric, wtr, wstwtr, nd nturl gs utilitis. Th lctric utility owns n intrnl, loopd, 69kV trnsmission systm for systm lod nd 119 MW locl powr gnrting plnt. FPUA plns to rtir its gnrting plnt in 28. Thr r two intrconnctions with othr utilitis, both t 138 kv. Th FF UA s Hrtmn Substtion intrconncts to FPL s Midwy nd Emrson Substtions. Th scond intrconnction is from th FPUA s Grdn City (#2) Substtion to County Lin Substtion No. 2 by 7.5 mil, singl circuit 138 kv lin. FPUA nd th City of Vro Bch jointly own County Lin Substtion, th 138 kv lin conncting to Emrson Substtion, nd som prts of th ti btwn th two citis. Kvs Enruv Srvics Th Utility Bord of th City of Ky Wst (KEYS) owns nd mintins n lctric gnrtion, trnsmission, nd distribution systm, which supplis lctric powr nd nrgy south of Florid Kys lctric Cooprtiv s (FKEC) Mrthon Substtion to th City of Ky Wst. KEYS nd FKEC jointly own 64 mil long 138 kv trnsmission ti lin from FKEC s Mrthon Substtion tht intrconncts to FPL s Florid City Substtion t th Dd/Monro County Lin. In ddition, scond intrconnction with FPL ws compltd in 1995, which consists of jointly ownd 21 mil 138 kv ti lin btwn th FKEC s Tvrnir nd Florid City Substtions t th Dd/Monro County lin nd is indpndntly oprtd by FKEC. KEYS owns 49.2 mil long 138 kv rdil trnsmission lin from Mrthon Substtion to KEYS Stock Islnd Substtion. Two utotrnsformrs t th Stock Islnd Substtion provid trnsformtion btwn 138 kv nd 69 kv. KEYS hs fiv 69 kv nd four 138 kv substtions which supply powr t 13.8 kv nd 4.16 kv to its distribution systm. KEYS owns pproximtly 227 mils of 13.8 kv distribution lin. Citv of Lk Worth Utilitis Th City of Lk Worth Utilitis (LWU) owns nd mintins n lctric gnrtion, trnsmission, nd distribution systm, which supplis lctric powr nd nrgy in nd round th City of Lk Worth. Th totl gnrting cpbility, loctd t th Tom G. Smith powr gnrting plnt is rtd t pproximtly 98 MW. LWU hs on 138 kv intrconnction with FPL t th LWU ownd Hypoluxo Switching Sttion. A 3mil rdil 138 kv trnsmission lin 23

25 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of Existing Fcilitis conncts th Hypoluxo Switching Sttion to LWU s Min Plnt Substtion. In ddition, 2.4 mil rdil 138 kv trnsmission lin conncts th Min Plnt Substtion to LWU s Cnl Substtion. Two 138/26 kv utotrnsformrs r loctd t th Min Plnt, nd on 138/26 kv utotrnsformr is loctd t Cnl Substtion. Th utility owns n intrnl 26 kv sub trnsmission systm to srv systm lod. Kissimm Utilitv Authoritv KUA ownd gnrtion nd purchsd cpcity is dlivrd through 23 kv nd 69 kv trnsmission lins. KUA srvs totl r of pproximtly 85 squr mils. KUA s 23 kv nd 69 kv trnsmission systm includs intrconnctions with PEF, OUC, TECO nd th City of St. Cloud. KUA owns 24.6 circuit mils of 23 kv nd 52.8 circuit mils of 69 kv trnsmission lins. KUA nd FMPA jointly own 21.6 circuit mils of 23 kv lins out of Cn Islnd Powr Prk. Elctric cpcity nd nrgy supplid from KUA ownd gnrtion nd purchsd cpcity is dlivrd through 23 kv nd 69 kv trnsmission lins to tn distribution substtions. KUA hs dirct trnsmission intrconnctions with: (1) PEF t PEF s 23 kv Intrcssion City Substtion, 69 kv Lk Bryn Substtion, nd 69 kv Mdow Wood South Substtion; (2) OUC t OUC s 23 kv Tft Substtion nd TECO / OUC s 23 kv Oscol Substtion from Cn Islnd Substtion; nd (3) th City of St. Cloud t KUA s 69 kv Crl A. Wll Substtion. Citv of Ocl Elctric Utilitv Ocl Elctric Utility (OEU) owns its bulk powr supply systm which consists of thr 23 kv to 69 kv substtions, 13 mils rdil 23 kv nd 48 mils 69 kv trnsmission loop nd 18 distribution substtions dlivring powr t kv. Th distribution systm consists of 773 mils of ovrhd lins nd 32 mils of undrground lins. OEU s 23kV trnsmission systm intrconncts with PEF s Silvr Springs Switching Sttion nd Sminol Elctric Cooprtiv, Inc. s (SECI) Silvr Springs North Switching Sttion. OEU s Drmin Substtion tis t PEF s Silvr Springs Switching Sttion nd OEU s Ergl Substtion tis t SECI s Silvr Springs North Switching Sttion. OEU lso hs 69 kv ti from th Airport Substtion with Sumtr Elctric Cooprtiv s Mrtl Substtion. In ddition, OEU owns 13 mil rdil 23 kv trnsmission lin from Ergl Substtion to Shw Substtion. OEU hs compltd nd plcd in srvic scond 23 kv ti by rrouting th xisting Shw to Ergl 23 kv lin from Shw Substtion to dirct rdil conncting to SECI s Silvr Springs North Switching Sttion. 24 m.i

26 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Dscription of Existing Fcilitis Citvof Vro Bch Th City of Vro Bch (CVB) hs municiplly ownd lctric utility. Th utility owns n intrnl, loopd, 69 kv trnsmission systm for systm lod nd 155 MW locl powr gnrting plnt. CVB hs two 138 kv intrconnctions with FPL nd on with FPUA. CVB s intrconnction with FPL is t CVB s Wst Substtion No. 7. CVB lso hs scond FPL intrconnction from County Lin Substtion No. 2. County Lin Substtion No. 2 is connctd by two sprt, singl circuit, 138 kv trnsmission lins to FPLs Emrson 23/138 kv substtion nd FPUA s Grdn City (No. 2) Substtion. CVB & FPUA jointly own County Lin Substtion No. 2, th conncting lins to FPL s Emrson Sttion, nd som prt of th ti btwn th two municipl utilitis ARP Trnsmission Agrmnts OUC provids trnsmission srvic for dlivry of powr nd nrgy from FMPA s ownrship in Stnton Unit No. 1, Stnton Unit No. 2, Stnton A combind cycl (CC), nd th Indin Rivr combustion turbin (CT) units to th FPL nd PEF intrconnctions for subsqunt dlivry to th ARP. Rts for such trnsmission whling srvic r bsd upon OUC s costs of providing such trnsmission whling srvic nd undr trms nd conditions of th OUCFMPA Firm Trnsmission Srvic contrcts for th ARP. FMPA lso hs contrcts with PEF nd FPL to trnsmit th vrious ARP rsourcs ovr th trnsmission systms of ch of ths two utilitis. Th Ntwork Srvic Agrmnt with FPL ws xcutd in Mrch 1996 nd ws subsquntly mndd to both conform to FERC s Pro form Triff nd to dd dditionl mmbrs to th ARP. Th FPL grmnt provids for ntwork trnsmission srvic for th ARP mmbr citis loctd in FPL s srvic trritory. To provid trnsmissionwhling srvic for ARP mmbr citis loctd in PEF s srvic trritory, FMPA oprts undr n xisting grmnt with PEF, which ws xcutd in April 1985 nd provids for ntwork typ trnsmission srvics.

27 8E 1 ZE IS ZE ZI 11 69s SP S1 S ES Ll PC PC P8 9 PZ iiqizgq 3 ln E E E2 OS ZC 8 OP 9s E El E1 19 cz OP P IP 1L9 S9P S9P MW )ldwn xw wg 81SO 8/SO 81SO SO 8/SO VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN VN Mlww luurq pvdx3 OUPO OUPO 61SO 9USO w/1 ES/lO 26R 1 9U8 1U6 W8 I /9 66/9 zo/co S6/9 S /8 681L 68/9 EOlO 1 96/9 L 8/L E818 LUEO Mlww qrugul lpiuwo3 ni ni ld ld ld ld ld ld ld ld VM VM VM ld ld ld ld ld ld ld ld tltl tltl ni ni Lw!Jd ll lnd 99 E E EZ OE 8 Vt1 SE ES EE I1 ZI S6S SP SL SC CEC 9S L L EO SZ iziifg h!1!41 ~ oj oj 9N 3N 3N HM 3N E)N 3N 3N 3N od oj oj 3N 3N 3N 3N 3N 3N 9N 3N tln tln s 1s V3 13 1s IS V3 1s s 1s dn dn dh wn z L 6 8 L S S P E 2 1 Pi9 E E z v 13 V E 'ON wn

28 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln. Dscription of Existing Fcilitis Schdul 1 (Continud) ARE' Existing Gnrting Rsourcs s of Dcmbr 31,27,., I L (1) ILI (31 I, Plnt Nm Unit No. Loction Kissimm Utility Authority Hnsl Plnt Hnsl Plnt Hnsl Plnt Cn Islnd Cn Islnd Cn Islnd Stnton Enrgy Cntr Stnton Enrgy Cntr Indin Rivr Indin Rivr Sub Totl KUA A CT A CT B Oscol Oscol Oscol Oscol Oscol Oscol Orng Orng Brvrd Brvrd 141 (5) (6) Unit Typ CT CA CA GT cc cc ST cc GT GT Fu Primry NG WH WH NG NG NG BIT NG NG NG y A It m t DFO DFO DFO DFO DFO DFO Ful Tri Primry PL PL PL PL RR PL PL PL orttion A It rn t TK TK TK TK TK TK TK (9) :ommrcil Inlrvic MMNY 2/ /83 1/ /89 6/89 Expctd Rtirmnt MMNY 12/11 12/11 12/11 Gn. Mx Nmplt MW Nt C; ummr (MW; ibility Wintr (MW) Lk Worth Tom G. Smith Tom G. Smith Tom G. Smith Tom G. Smith Tom G. Smith TomG Smith Tom G. Smith Tom G. Smith Tom G. Smith Sub Totl Lk Worth GT1 GT2 MU 1 MU2 MU3 MU4 MU5 s3 s5 Plm Bch Plm Bch Plm Bch Plm Bch Plm Bch Plm Bch Plm Bch Plm Bch Plm Bch GT CT IC IC IC IC IC ST CA DFO NG DFO DFO DFO DFO DFO NG WH DFO RFO TK PL TK TK TK TK TK PL TK TK 12/76 3/78 12/65 12/65 12/65 12/65 12/65 11/67 3/ / Kys Enrgy Srvics Stock Islnd Stock Islnd HSD Stock Islnd HSD Stock Islnd HSD Stock Islnd MSD Stock Islnd MSD Sub Totl Kys CTI IC1 IC2 IC3 MSDI MSD2 Monro Monro Monro Monro Monro Monro GT IC IC IC IC IC DFO DFO DFO DFO DFO DFO WA WA WA WA WA WA 11/ I65 1/65 6/ Totl MmbrOwnd Gnrtion Totl Gnrtion Rsourcs 1,

29 Powr Supply Projct Community Powr + Sttwid Strngth

30 ~ FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct Sction 3 Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct 3.1 Introduction Undr th ARP structur, FMPA grs to mt ll of th ARP mmbrs powr rquirmnts. To scur sufficint cpcity nd nrgy, FMPA forcsts ch ARP mmbr s lctricl powr dmnd nd nrgy rquirmnts on n individul bsis nd intgrts th rsults into forcst for th ntir ARP. Th following discussion summrizs th lod forcsting procss nd th rsults of th lod forcst contind in this TnYr Sit Pln. 3.2 Lod Forcst Procss FMPA prprs its lod nd nrgy forcst by month nd summrizs th forcst nnully. Th lod nd nrgy forcst includs projctions of customrs, dmnd, nd nrgy sls by rt clssifiction for ch of th ARP mmbrs. Th forcst procss includs xisting ARP mmbr citis tht FMPA currntly supplis nd ARP mmbrs tht FMPA is schduld to bgin supplying in th futur. Forcsts r prprd on n individul mmbr bsis nd r thn ggrgtd into projctions of th totl ARP dmnd nd nrgy rquirmnts. Figur 31 blow idntifis FMPA s lod forcst procss. Figur 31 Lod Forcst Procss ti isloricill Mcmhcr Sls H i+lorical M cm hr (!uscomcr$ Po pu lt in n H isloriciil liconiimic History nd Wcthcr snd Ilirliy nd 1:orccnrr Nom lizu lion I:olcsI $VI ui :._. 1; vi qy 4 i... Economtric Modling 4 NCP.. Lod, Enrgy nd NCP/CP C u \ton1 r Fo rc c n s t AR P M m brs FMPA Trnsmission P /n ning 31

31 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct In ddition to th Bs Cs lod nd nrgy forcst, FMPA hs prprd high nd low cs forcsts, which r intndd to cptur th mjority of th uncrtinty in crtin driving vribls, for ch of th ARP mmbrs. Th high nd low lod forcst scnrios r considrd in FMPA s rsourc plnning procss. In this wy, powr supply plns r tstd for thir robustnss undr vrying futur lod conditions Lod Forcst Ovrviw Th lod nd nrgy forcst (Forcst) ws prprd for 2 yr priod, bginning fiscl yr 27 through 226. Th Forcst ws prprd on monthly bsis using municipl utility dt providd to FMPA by th ARP mmbrs nd lod dt mintind by FMPA. Historicl nd projctd conomic nd dmogrphic dt wr providd by Economy.com, ntionlly rcognizd providr of such dt. Th Forcst lso rlid on informtion rgrding locl conomic nd dmogrphic issus spcific to ch ARP mmbr. Th Forcst rflcts th City of Vro Bch Notic of Estblishmnt of Contrct Rt of Dlivry (CROD). Th Forcst ws prformd ssuming tht Vro Bch s CROD bcoms ffctiv on Jnury 1, 21; howvr, th rsults of th Forcst do not currntly includ th prtil rquirmnts lod rfrrd to in Sction 1.2 of this documnt tht my b srvd by FMPA bginning Jnury 1, 21. Th rsults of th Bs Cs forcst r discussd in Sction m (I In ddition to th Bs Cs forcst, FMPA hs prprd high nd low forcsts to cptur th uncrtinty of wthr. Th mthodology nd rsults of th high (Svr) nd low (Mild) wthr css r discussd in Sction Mthodology Th forcst of pk dmnd nd nt nrgy for lod to b supplid from th ARP rlis on n conomtric forcst of ch ARP mmbr s rtil sls, combind with vrious ssumptions rgrding loss, lod, nd coincidnc fctors, gnrlly bsd on th rcnt historicl vlus for such fctors, which r thn summd cross th ARP mmbrs. Economtric forcsting mks us of rgrssion to stblish historicl rltionships btwn nrgy consumption nd vrious xplntory vribls bsd on fundmntl conomic thory nd xprinc. In this pproch, th significnc of historicl rltionships is vlutd using commonly ccptd sttisticl msurs. Modls tht, in th viw of th nlyst, bst xplin th historicl vrition of nrgy consumption r slctd. Th bility of modl to xplin historicl vrition is oftn rfrrd to s goodnssoffit. Ths historicl rltionships r gnrlly 32

32 B I, FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct ssumd to continu into th futur, brring ny spcific informtion or ssumptions to th contrry. Th slctd modls r thn popultd with projctions of xplntory vribls, rsulting in projctions of nrgy rquirmnts. Economtric forcsting cn b mor rlibl tchniqu for longtrm forcsting thn trnd bsd pprochs nd othr tchniqus, bcus th pproch rsults in n xplntion of vritions in lod rthr thn simply n xtrpoltion of history. As rsult of this pproch, utilitis r mor likly to nticipt dprturs from historicl trnds in nrgy consumption, givn ccurt projctions of th driving vribls. In ddition, undrstnding th undrlying rltionships which ffct nrgy consumption llows utilitis to prform scnrio nd risk nlyss, thrby improving dcisions. Th Svr nd Mild Css r xmpls of this cpbility. Forcsts of monthly sls wr prprd by rt clssifiction for ch ARP mmbr. In som css, rt clssifictions wr combind to limint th ffcts of clss migrtion or rdfinition. In this wy, grtr stbility is providd in th historicl priod upon which sttisticl rltionships r bsd. I, Modl Spcifiction Th following discussion summrizs th dvlopmnt of conomtric modls usd to forcst lod, nrgy sls, nd customr ccounts on monthly bsis. This ovrviw will prsnt common bsis upon which ch clssifiction of modls ws prprd. For th rsidntil clss, th nlysis of lctric sls ws sprtd into rsidntil usg pr customr nd th numbr of customrs, th product of which is totl rsidntil sls. This procss is common for homognous customr groups. Th rsidntil clss modls typiclly rflct tht nrgy sls r dpndnt on, or drivn by: (i) th numbr of rsidntil customrs, (ii) rl prsonl incom pr houshold, (iii) rl lctricity prics, nd (iv) wthr vribls. Th numbr of rsidntil customrs ws projctd on th bsis of th stimtd historicl ritionship btwn th numbr of rsidntil customrs of th ARP mmbrs nd th numbr of housholds in ch ARP mmbr s county. I, Th nonrsidntil lctricity sls modls rflct tht nrgy sls r bst xplind by: (i) rl rtil sls, totl prsonl incom, or gross domstic product (GDP) s msur of conomic ctivity nd popultion in nd round th mmbr s srvic trritory, (ii) th rl pric of lctricity, nd (iii) wthr vribls. For th mjority of modls, totl prsonl incom ws slctd s th msur of conomic ctivity, bcus it prformd bttr by crtin sttisticl

33 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct msurs thn othr vribls nd is msurd historiclly with mor ccurcy t th locl lvl. For th industril clss, GDP ws mor oftn th longtrm driving vribl, xcpt in css whr th forcst ws bsd on n ssumption to ddrss singl, lrg customr (.g., Clwiston nd Ky Wst). Wthr vribls includ hting nd cooling dgr dys for th currnt month nd for th prior month. Lggd dgr dy vribls r includd to ccount for th typicl billing cycl offst from clndr dt. In othr words, sls tht r billd in ny prticulr month r typiclly md up of lctricity tht ws usd during som portion of th currnt month nd of th prior month Projction of NEL nd Pk Dmnd Th forcst of sls for ch rt clssifiction dscribd bov wr summd to qul th totl rtil sls of ch ARP mmbr. An ssumd loss fctor, typiclly bsd on 5yr vrg of historicl loss fctors, ws thn pplid to th totl sls to driv monthly NEL. To th xtnt historicl loss fctors wr dmd nomlous, thy wr xcludd from ths vrgs. Projctions of summr nd wintr noncoincidnt pk (NCP) dmnd wr dvlopd by pplying projctd nnul lod fctors to th forcstd nt nrgy for lod on totl mmbr systm bsis. Th projctd lod fctors wr bsd on th vrg rltionship btwn nnul NEL nd th ssonl pk dmnd gnrlly ovr th priod (i.., 1yr vrg). m (I Monthly pk dmnd ws bsd on th vrg rltionship btwn ch monthly pk nd th pproprit ssonl pk. This vrg rltionship ws computd ftr rnking th historicl dmnd dt within th summr nd wintr ssons nd rssigning pk dmnds to ch month bsd on th typicl rnking of tht month comprd to th ssonl pk. This procss voids distortion of th vrgs du to rndomnss s to th months in which pk wthr conditions occur within ch sson. For xmpl, summr pk priod cn occur during July or August of ny yr. It is importnt tht th shp of th pk dmnds rflcts tht only on of thos two months is th pk month nd tht th othr is typiclly som prcntg lss. Projctd coincidnt pk dmnds rltd to th totl ARP, th ARP mmbr groups, nd th trnsmission providrs wr drivd from monthly coincidnc fctors vrgd gnrlly ovr 5yr priod (2226). Th historicl coincidnc fctors r bsd on historicl coincidnt pk dmnd dt tht is mintind by FMPA. Similrly, th timing of th totl ARP nd ARP mmbr group pks ws dtrmind from n pproprit summtion of th hourly lod dt. 34

34 I, FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct I) n I) I) m 8 m I) B 8 I) 8 I) 3.5 Dt Sourcs Historicl Mmbr Rtil Sls Dt Dt ws gnrlly vilbl nd nlyzd ovr Jnury 1992 through Mrch 27 (Study Priod). Dt includd historicl customr counts, sls, nd rvnus by rt clssifiction for ch of th mmbrs. Howvr, for smll prt of th Study Priod, only totl rvnus wr vilbl Wthr Dt Historicl wthr dt ws providd by th Ntionl Climtic Dt Cntr ( subsidiry of th Ntionl Ocnic nd Atmosphric Administrtion) (NCDC), which ws gnrlly usd to supplmnt n xisting wthr dtbs mintind by FMPA. Wthr sttions, from which historicl wthr ws obtind, wr slctd by thir qulity nd proximity to th ARP mmbrs. In most css, th closst firstordr wthr sttion ws th bst sourc of wthr dt. Firstordr wthr sttions (usully irports) gnrlly provid th highst qulity nd most rlibl wthr dt. In thr css (Bchs Enrgy Srvics, Fort Pirc, nd Vro Bch), howvr, wthr dt from cooprtiv wthr sttion, which ws closr thn th closst firstordr sttion, pprd to mor ccurtly rflct th wthr conditions tht ffct th ARP mmbrs lods, bsd on sttisticl msurs, thn th closst firstordr wthr sttion. Th influnc on lctricity sls of wthr hs bn rprsntd through th us of two dt sris: hting nd cooling dgr dys (HDD nd CDD, rspctivly). Dgr dys r drivd by compring th vrg dily tmprtur nd bs tmprtur, 65 dgrs Fhrnhit. To th xtnt th vrg dily tmprtur xcds 65 dgrs Fhrnhit, th diffrnc btwn tht vrg tmprtur nd th bs is th numbr of CDD for th dy in qustion. Convrsly, HDD rsult from vrg dily tmprturs which r blow 65 dgrs Fhrnhit. Hting nd cooling dgr dys r thn summd ovr th priod of intrst, in this cs, months. Th mjority of this monthly dt ws obtind dirctly from th NCDC rthr thn clcultd from dily dt. Norml wthr conditions hv bn ssumd in th projctd priod. Thirty yr norml monthly HDD nd CDD r bsd on vrg wthr conditions from 1971 through 2, s rportd by th NCDC. 35

35 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Economic Dt Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct Economy.com, ntionlly rcognizd providr of conomic dt, providd both historicl nd projctd conomic nd dmogrphic dt for ch of th 16 countis in which th Mmbrs srvic trritoris rsid (th srvic trritory of Bchs Enrgy Srvics includs portions of both Duvl nd St. Johns Countis). This dt includs county popultion, housholds, mploymnt, prsonl incom, rtil sls, nd gross domstic product. Although ll of th dt ws not ncssrily usd in ch of th forcst qutions, ch ws xmind for its potntil to xplin chngs in th ARP mmbrs historicl lctric sls Rl Elctricity Pric Dt Th rl pric of lctricity ws drivd from twlv month moving vrg of rl vrg rvnu. To th xtnt vrg rvnu dt spcific to crtin rt clssifiction ws unvilbl, it ws ssumd to follow th trnd of totl vrg rvnu of th utility. Projctd lctricity prics wr ssumd to incrs t th rt of infltion. Consquntly, th rl pric ws projctd to b ssntilly constnt. m 3.6 Ovrviw of Rsults Bs Cs Forcst Th rsults of th Forcst show tht th nt nrgy for lod to b supplid by th ARP is xpctd to grow t n nnul vrg growth rt of 2.5% from 27216, nd thn t lowr growth rt of 2.1% from Th Bs Cs 28 ARP forcst wintr pk dmnd is 1,49 MW, forcst summr pk dmnd is 1,525 MW, nd forcst nnul NEL is 7,558 GWh WthrRltd Uncrtinty of th Forcst Whil forcst tht is drivd from projctions of driving vribls tht r obtind from rputbl sourcs provids sound bsis for plnning, thr is significnt uncrtinty in th futur lvl of such vribls. To th xtnt tht conomic, dmogrphic, wthr, or othr conditions occur tht r diffrnt from thos ssumd or providd, th ctul mmbr lod cn b xpctd to vry from th forcst. For vrious purposs, it is importnt to undrstnd th mount by which th forcst cn b in rror nd th sourcs of rror. In ddition to th Bs Cs forcst, which rlis on norml wthr conditions, FMPA hs dvlopd high nd low forcsts, rfrrd to hrin s th Svr nd Mild wthr css, intndd to cptur th voltility rsulting from wthr vritions in th summr nd wintr 36

36 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct ssons quivlnt to 9 prcnt of potntil occurrncs. Accordingly, lod vritions du to wthr should b outsid th rsulting bnd btwn th Mild nd Svr wthr css lss thn 1 out of 1 yrs. For this purpos, th summr nd wintr ssons wr ssumd to ncompss Jun through Sptmbr nd Dcmbr through Fbrury, rspctivly. Th potntil wthr vribility ws dvlopd using wthr dt spcific to ch wthr sttion gnrlly ovr th priod Ths wthr scnrios simultnously rflct mor nd lss svr wthr conditions in both ssons, lthough this is lss likly to hppn thn svr conditions in on sson or th othr. Accordingly, it should b rcognizd tht nnul NEL my b somwht lss voltil thn th nnul NEL vrition shown hrin. Convrsly, NEL in ny prticulr month my b mor voltil thn shown hrin. Finlly, bcus th forcst mthodology drivs pk dmnd from NEL vi constnt lod fctor ssumptions, nnul summr nd wintr pk dmnd r ffctivly ssumd to hv th sm wthrrltd voltility s nnul NEL. Th wthr scnrios rsult in bnds of uncrtinty round th Bs Cs tht r ssntilly constnt through tim, so tht th projctd growth rt is th sm s th Bs Cs. Th diffrntil btwn th Svr Cs nd Bs Cs is somwht lrgr thn btwn th Mild Cs nd Bs Cs s rsult of somwht nonlinr rspons of lod to wthr. 3.7 Lod Forcst Schduls Schduls 2.1 through 2.3 nd 3. I through 3.3 prsnt th Bs Cs lod forcst. Schduls 3.l through 3.3 prsnt th high, or Svr wthr cs, nd Schduls 3.lb through 3.3b prsnt th low, or Mild wthr cs. Schdul 4 prsnts th Bs Cs monthly lod forcst.

37 I D B B D B D D D D B B B D D B D D D D D r I n 6 U 7 z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z ~ $ D D D D D 9 D D D 9 D D D D D D D D D E. I z g 7 z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z z E ~ D D D D D 9 D D D P D D D D D D D D D ~? ~ o f P I. 4.. s!. 3. s. /.?.? 3.? 2 ok, m 1 4 d v D E nl 3

38 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct Schdul 2.2 History nd Forcst of Enrgy Consumption nd Numbr of Customrs by Customr Clss AllRquirmnts Projct (1) Yr [I] GWh Industril Avrg No. of Customrs 972 1,31 1,78 1,14 1,132 1,151 1,137 1,17 1,219 1,27 1,319 1,365 1,41 1,457 1,57 1,561 1,617 1,676 1,738 1,81 Avrg kwh Consumption pr Customr 661, , , ,72 634, , , ,95 67, ,96 63, ,44 591,47 587, ,77 577, ,75 568, ,89 557,417 (5) Rilrods nd Ri I wys GWh Strt & Highwy Lighting GWh (7) Othr Sls to Public Authoritis GWh (8) Totl Sls to Ultimt Customrs GWh 4,283 4,381 4,558 4,627 5,228 6,59 6,68 6,769 6,828 6,94 7,141 7,363 6,752 6,93 7,53 7,211 7,376 7,544 7,716 7,887 [I] Amounts shown for 1998 through 26 rprsnt historicl vlus. Amounts shown for 27 through 217 rprsnt forcst vlus.

39 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct Schdul 2.3 History nd Forcst of Enrgy Consumption nd Numbr of Customrs by Customr Clss AllRquirmnts Projct (1) Yr [I] Sls for Rsl GWh (3) Utility Us & Losss GWh (4) Nt Enrgy for Lod GWh 4,53 4,657 4,838 4,877 5,532 7,8 7, 7,145 7,211 7,293 7,558 7,795 7,153 7,312 7,471 7,638 7,812 7,991 8,172 8,354 (5) Othr Customrs (Avrg No.) Totl No. of Customrs 17,22 18,69 184, ,99 27, , , ,25 289, ,93 32,196 31, ,69 287, , ,384 35, ,58 318,62 325,192 [I] Amounts shown for 1998 through 26 rprsnt historicl vlus. Amounts shown for 27 through 217 rprsnt forcst vlus.

40 FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct Schdul 3.1 History nd Forcst of Summr Pk Dmnd (MW) Bs Cs AllRquirmnts Projct

41 8ZS' 1 P6P' 1 9P' 1 LZP' 1 P6E' 1 P9E' 1 PEE' 1 POE' c PSP' 1 69' 1 ZOZ' 1 1OP' 1 OPE' 1 P61'1 ELP'l 8' 1 8' 1 LP6 916 SL9 putu u!d IN (nil IRI uognsuo3 t!wp!stl luwluly Pl l!iup!w tq!idnuwi I!itl (PI lslollm (E) 8ZS' 1 P6P' 1 9P' 1 LZP'1 P6E' 1 P9E' 1 PEE' c POE' 1 PSP' 1 6P' 1 ZOZ' 1 LOP'I OPE' 1 P6 I' 1 ELP'1 8' 1 8' 1 LP6 926 SL9 lwl LC19lOZ 9L1SlOZ s LIP coz PtlElOZ ElRlOZ ZtlllOZ ll1loz Ot16Z LOOZ L19Z 91soo2 SO1POOZ Po/cooz EOROOZ zo/1ooz 11z L661 [ll JA (1)

42 ~ FMPA 28 TnYr Sit Pln Forcst of Dmnd nd Enrgy for th AllRquirmnts Powr Supply Projct Schdul 3.3 History nd Forcst of Annul Nt Enrgy for Lod (GWh) Bs Cs AllRquirmnts Projct (1) Yr [I] (2) Totl 4,283 4,381 4,558 4,627 5,228 6,59 6,68 6,769 6,828 6,94 7,141 7,363 6,752 6,93 7,53 7,211 7,376 7,544 7, (3) Rsidntil Consrvtion (4) Commrcil/ Industril Consrvtion (5) Rtil 4,283 4,381 4,558 4,627 5,228 6,59 6,68 6,769 6,828 6,94 7,141 7,363 6,752 6,93 7,53 7,211 7,376 7,544 7, Wholsl (71 Utility Us 8 Losss (8) Nt Enrgy for Lod 4,53 4,657 4,838 4,877 5,532 7,8 7, 7,145 7,211 7,293 7,558 7,795 7,153 7,312 7,471 7,638 7,812 7,991 8,172 8,354 (9) Lod Fctor % 55% 54% 57% 55% 53% 54% 56% 54% 56% 57% 57% 57% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% [I] Amounts shown for 1998 through 26 rprsnt historicl vlus. Amounts shown for 27 through 217 rprsnt forcst vlus.