Splits systems Indonesia

Transcription

1 Splits systems Indonesia A multi client study By Stan Samek November 2013

2 Splits systems Indonesia A multi client study Contract: Report 57564/5B Date: November 2013 Issued by: BSRIA Limited Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH UK Telephone: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) E: bsria@bsria.co.uk W: Compiled by: Name: Stan Samek Approved by: Name: Saziye Dickson All rights reserved. This document may not be reproduced, transmitted or redistributed in part or full without prior written consent from a BSRIA Director. BSRIA Page 3 of 63 Report 57564/5B

3 SPLITS SYSTEMS CONTENTS CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION Methodology Definitions SUMMARY MARKET SIZE, STRUCTURE AND SEGMENTATION Market size Splits Splits and VRF overview Splits and VRF - size analysis, by mode and type of outdoor unit Analysis of trends in VRF systems installed with dedicated outdoor air systems Analysis by inverter Ducted splits size analysis by mode and type of outdoor unit Analysis by inverter Analysis by type of indoor unit PACKAGED AIR CONDITIONING BY TYPE OF REFRIGERANTS MAJOR COMPANIES Overview Splits Single ductless splits Multisplits VRF Japanese ducted US ducted High wall Cassette Other Product matrix of key suppliers HISTORICAL TREND AND FORECASTS Historical trends Forecasts Assumptions Single ductless splits Ducted splits (Japanese and US) Multi-splits VRF Construction & macroeconomic factors Construction and forecast OVERSEAS TRADE Production Trends in manufacturing Imports Exports DISTRIBUTION PRICING, DISCOUNTS AND MARGINS SPLITS STOCK LEVELS END USER SECTORS AND APPLICATION SPECIFICATION TRENDS Equipment and brand specification...58 BSRIA Page 4 of 63 Report 57564/5B

4 SPLITS SYSTEMS CONTENTS APPENDICES APPENDIX: A ADDRESSES OF AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLIERS APPENDIX: B END USER APPLICATIONS NEW DEFINITIONS APPENDIX: C MINISPLIT AND VRF DEFINITIONS TABLES Table 1 Current and future AC penetration into the residential and commercial market Table 2 Volume of the splits systems market (units), (E) Table 3 Value of the splits systems market (IDR million), (E) Table 4 Value of the splits systems market (US$ million), (E) Table 17 Ductless split market analysed by volume (units), (E) Table 18 Ductless split market analysed by value (IDR million), (E) Table 19 Ductless split market analysed by value (US$ million), (E) Table 20 Sales of standard outdoor units, by size and mode, volume (units), Table 21 Sales of VRF outdoor units, by size and mode, volume (units), Table 22 VRF market by value and capacity installed, (F) Table 23 Sales of VRF sold with DOAS (Dedicated Outdoor Air Systems); % by volume Table 24 Ductless splits market by type of outdoor unit, volume (units), (E) Table 25 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, volume (units), (E) Table 26 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, value (IDR million), (E) Table 27 Ductless splits market penetration of inverters, value (US$ million), (E) Table 28 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, volume (units), (E) Table 29 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (IDR million), Table 30 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (IDR million), Table 31 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (IDR million), 2013(E) Table 32 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), Table 33 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), Table 34 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), 2013(E) Table 35 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, volume (units), (E) Table 36 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, value (IDR million), (E) Table 37 Ducted splits market penetration of inverters, value (US$ million), (E) Table 38 Sales of splits standard indoor units (non-vrf) analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), Table 39 Sales of splits standard indoor units (non-vrf) analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2013(E) Table 40 Sales of VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), Table 41 Sales of VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2013(E) Table 42 Sales of standard + VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), Table 43 Sales of standard + VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2013(E) Table 58 Splits systems by type of refrigerants, % sales by volume, Table 60 Market leaders for ductless splits by product type, by volume, Table 61 Market leaders for single split, indoor units, by volume, Table 64 Matrix of suppliers, splits systems, 2012/ Table 65 Historical trend for splits systems, volume (units), Table 66 Historical trend for splits systems, value at current prices (IDR million), Table 67 Historical trend for splits systems, average IDR MSP, Table 68 Historical trend for splits systems, value at current prices (US$ million), Table 69 Historical trend for splits systems, average US$ MSP, Table 70 Forecast assumptions Table 71 Forecast for splits systems, outdoor units, volume (units), Table 72 Forecast for splits systems, outdoor units, value (IDR million in 2012 prices), Table 73 Forecast for splits systems, outdoor units, average IDR MSP in 2012 prices, Table 74 Forecast for splits systems, outdoor units, value (US$ million in 2012 prices), BSRIA Page 5 of 63 Report 57564/5B

5 SPLITS SYSTEMS CONTENTS Table 75 Forecast for splits systems, outdoor units, average US$ MSP in 2012 prices, Table 76 Construction trends and forecasts, Table 77 Macro-economic forecasts, Table 78 Trends in consumer price index, Table 79 Manufacturer information on major suppliers Table 80 Foreign trade (derived), volume (units), Table 81 Distribution of splits systems products, first point of sale, % by volume, Table 82 Examples of average list prices (IDR) by product type, Table 83 Examples of average list prices (US$) by product type, Table 84 Splits stock levels in Indonesia, by volume of outdoor units, end of September Table 85 End users, splits systems, % sales by value, Table 86 Applications, splits systems, % of sales by value, Table 87 Specification of type of equipment, splits systems, % by value, Table 88 Specification of brand of equipment, splits systems, % by value, FIGURES Figure 1 Map of Indonesia... 8 Figure 2 Overview of packaged air conditioning market, % by volume and value, Figure 3 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (US$ million), Figure 4 Volume of the packaged air conditioning market (units), Figure 7 Ductless splits market analysed by size, type and mode, volume (units), Figure 8 Ducted splits market analysed by size and mode, volume (units), Figure 9 Split indoor units, by size and mounting, volume (units), Figure 10 Split indoor units, by size and mounting, volume (%), Figure 14 Trend and forecast for packaged air conditioning, value (US$ million), BSRIA Page 6 of 63 Report 57564/5B

6 Room, packaged & close control air conditioning Spain European air conditioning A multi client study By Pablo Vicario November 2012

7 Room, packaged & close control air conditioning Spain A multi client study Contract: Report 55302/13 Date: November 2012 Issued by: BSRIA Limited Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH UK Telephone: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) E: bsria@bsria.co.uk W: Compiled by: Name: Pablo Vicario Approved by: Name: David Garwood This report must not be reproduced except in full without the written approval of an executive director of BSRIA. It is only intended to be used within the context described in the text. BSRIA Page 3 of 73 Report 55302/13

8 CONTENTS CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION Methodology Definitions SUMMARY MARKET SIZE, STRUCTURE AND SEGMENTATION Market size Windows/through the wall Moveables Splits Splits and VRF overview Splits and VRF - size analysis, by mode and type of outdoor unit Analysis by inverter Ducted splits size analysis by mode and type of outdoor unit Analysis by inverter Analysis by type of indoor unit Rooftops Indoor packaged (self contained) Close control Close control analysed by size PACKAGED AIR CONDITIONING BY TYPE OF REFRIGERANTS MAJOR COMPANIES Overview Windows and moveables Window through the wall Moveables Splits Single ductless splits Multisplits VRF Japanese ducted US ducted High wall Cassettes Other Rooftops and indoor packaged Rooftops Indoor packaged Close control Product matrix of key suppliers HISTORICAL TREND AND FORECASTS Historical trends Forecasts Assumptions Room air conditioning (window / through the wall; moveables) Single ductless splits Ducted splits (Japanese and US) Multi-splits VRF Rooftops Indoor packaged Close control Construction & macroeconomic factors Construction and forecast BSRIA Page 4 of 73 Report 55302/13

9 CONTENTS 7 OVERSEAS TRADE Production Trends in manufacturing Imports Exports DISTRIBUTION PRICING, DISCOUNTS AND MARGINS SPLITS STOCK LEVELS END USER SECTORS AND APPLICATION SPECIFICATION TRENDS The specification process Equipment and brand specification...67 APPENDICES APPENDIX: A ADDRESSES OF AIR CONDITIONING SUPPLIERS APPENDIX: B END USER APPLICATIONS NEW DEFINITIONS APPENDIX: C MINISPLIT AND VRF DEFINITIONS TABLES Table 1 Current and future AC penetration into the residential and commercial market Table 2 Volume of the packaged air conditioning market (units), (E) Table 3 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (Euro million), (E) Table 4 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (US$ million), (E) Table 5 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), Table 6 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), Table 7 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), 2012E Table 8 Window and through the wall analysed by size, volume (units), (E) Table 9 Window and through the wall analysed by size, value (Euro million), (E) Table 10 Window and through the wall analysed by size, value (US$ million), (E) Table 11 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), Table 12 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), Table 13 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), 2012(E) Table 14 Moveables sales analysed by size, volume (units), (E) Table 15 Moveables sales analysed by size, value (Euro million), (E) Table 16 Moveables sales analysed by size, value (US$ million), (E) Table 17 Ductless split market analysed by volume (units), (E) Table 18 Ductless split market analysed by value (Euro million), (E) Table 19 Ductless split market analysed by value (US$ million), (E) Table 20 Sales of standard outdoor units, by size and mode, volume (units), Table 21 Sales of VRF outdoor units, by size and mode, volume (units), Table 22 VRF market by value and capacity installed, (F) Table 23 Ductless splits market by type of outdoor unit, volume (units), (E) Table 24 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, volume (units), (E) Table 25 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, value (Euro million), (E) Table 26 Ductless splits market penetration of inverters, value (US$ million), (E) Table 27 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, volume (units), (E) Table 28 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), Table 29 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), Table 30 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), 2012(E) BSRIA Page 5 of 73 Report 55302/13

10 CONTENTS Table 31 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), Table 32 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), Table 33 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), 2012(E) Table 34 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, volume (units), (E) Table 35 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, value (Euro million), (E) Table 36 Ducted splits market penetration of inverters, value (US$ million), (E) Table 37 Sales of splits standard indoor units (non-vrf) analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), Table 38 Sales of splits standard indoor units (non-vrf) analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E) Table 39 Sales of VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), Table 40 Sales of VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E) Table 41 Sales of standard + VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), Table 42 Sales of standard + VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E) Table 43 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), Table 44 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), Table 45 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), 2012(E) Table 46 Rooftops market by size, volume (units), (E) Table 47 Indoor packaged market, volume (units), (E) Table 48 Indoor packaged market, value (Euro million), (E) Table 49 Indoor packaged market, value (US$ million), (E) Table 50 Indoor packaged market analysed by mode and size, volume (units), Table 51 Indoor packaged market by mode and size, volume (units), Table 52 Indoor packaged market by mode and size, volume (units), 2012(E) Table 53 Close control market analysed by application, volume (units), (E) Table 54 Close control market analysed by application, value (Euro million), (E) Table 55 Close control market analysed by application, value (US$ million), (E) Table 56 Close control market by size, volume (units), (E) Table 57 Packaged air conditioning by type of refrigerants, % sales by volume, Table 58 Market leaders for windows & moveables, by volume, Table 59 Market leaders for ductless splits by product type, by volume, Table 60 Market leaders for single split, indoor units, by volume, Table 61 Market leaders for rooftops and indoor packaged, by volume, Table 62 Market leaders for close control, by volume, Table 63 Matrix of suppliers, packaged air conditioning, Table 64 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, volume (units), Table 65 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, value at current prices (Euro million), Table 66 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, average Euro MSP, Table 67 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, value at current prices (US$ million), Table 68 Historical trend for packaged air conditioning, average US$ MSP, Table 69 Forecast assumptions Table 70 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, volume (units), Table 71 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, value (Euro million in 2011 prices), Table 72 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, average Euro MSP in 2011 prices, Table 73 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, value (US$ million in 2011 prices), Table 74 Forecast for packaged air conditioning, outdoor units, average US$ MSP in 2011 prices, Table 75 Construction trends and forecasts, Table 76 Macro-economic forecasts, Table 77 Trends in consumer price index, Table 78 Manufacturer information on major suppliers Table 79 Foreign trade (derived), packaged air conditioning, volume (units), Table 80 Distribution of packaged air conditioning products, first point of sale, % by volume, BSRIA Page 6 of 73 Report 55302/13

11 CONTENTS Table 81 Examples of average list prices (Euro) by product type, Table 82 Examples of average list prices (US$) by product type, Table 83 Splits stock levels in Spain, by volume of outdoor units, end Sept Table 84 End users for packaged air conditioning, % sales by value, Table 85 Applications for packaged air conditioning, % of sales by value, Table 86 Specification of type of equipment, packaged air conditioning, % by value, Table 87 Specification of brand of equipment, packaged air conditioning, % by value, FIGURES Figure 1 Map of Spain Figure 2 Overview of packaged air conditioning market, % by volume and value, Figure 3 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (Euro million), Figure 4 Volume of the packaged air conditioning market, Figure 5 Windows and through the wall analysed by size and mode, volume (units), Figure 6 Moveables analysed by size and mode, volume (units), Figure 7 Ductless splits market analysed by size, type and mode, volume (units), Figure 8 Ducted splits market analysed by size and mode, volume (units), Figure 9 Split indoor units, by size and mounting, volume (units), Figure 10 Split indoor units, by size and mounting, volume (%), Figure 11 Rooftops analysed by size and mode, volume (units), Figure 12 Indoor packaged market analysed by size, volume (units), Figure 13 Close control market analysed by size, volume (units), Figure 14 Trend and forecast for packaged air conditioning, value (Euro million), BSRIA Page 7 of 73 Report 55302/13

12 1 INTRODUCTION This report is the result of BSRIA s 16th annual study on the key European markets for air conditioning. The countries covered are: UK France Germany Italy Spain Poland Russia In terms of product groups, these are covered in two separate volumes, as follows, for each country: Packaged Air Conditioning Windows/through the wall Moveables Single splits Multi splits VRF US-style ducted splits Roof tops Indoor packaged Close control Central Plant Air Conditioning Chillers Air handling units Fan coils Other terminal units Definitions of key product groups are available in a separate definitions report. Data in the reports are supplied for 2010, 2011 and 2012 (estimates), with forecasts to However, please note that due to the volume of data, the main part of the report will concentrate around data, with some key 2012 data. 1.1 METHODOLOGY The research was based on a mixture of methodologies: Desk research In the UK, data was obtained through a mixture of methodologies: - Statistical collection, based on annual HEVAC statistics, which BSRIA collects on behalf of the UK Trade Association - Personal and telephone interviews Outside the UK, statistical data submitted by individual companies in selected product areas. BSRIA uses a mixture of its own consultants from the Worldwide Market Intelligence section and its subsidiaries outside of the UK, and its long-term partners. Data obtained outside the UK was cross-checked and formatted by BSRIA in order to provide comparable data. Face to face Pan-European interviews with European Head offices were undertaken by BSRIA s own consultants to cross-check draft data. BSRIA Page 8 of 73 Report 55302/13

13 At local level, research was obtained through a range of sources: statistical collection desk research face to face interviews telephone/fax interviews The research was planned and controlled from BSRIA, which combined the advantage of using local experts, which are long standing partners, as well as offering BSRIA expertise in the air conditioning field and the advantage of supplying a comparable set of data across Europe. In Spain 9 face to face and 7 telephone interviews were conducted with major local suppliers and specifiers. 1.2 DEFINITIONS Please note that all market size volumes in this report refer to number of units sold in a given year; for split systems this refer to outdoor units, where not indicated otherwise. Values stated in this report refer to the value of the whole system, with the average prices recorded at first point of distribution. Values of sales at manufacturers selling prices includes ancillaries, such as controls, where applicable. The price excludes VAT or equivalent taxes outside of the UK. For the purpose of this study, the following exchange rates have been used: 1 = US$1.33 (2010) 1 = US$1.39 (from 2011 onwards) BSRIA Page 9 of 73 Report 55302/13

14 2 SUMMARY Figure 1 Map of Spain The total packaged air conditioning market was estimated in 2011 at 767,531 units and was valued at 719 million. The growth rates compared to the previous year are -17% and 19% respectively. Windows and moveable units will maintain their competition levels against single high wall residential splits which by price are becoming more and more competitive. Spain economy is far from recovering and this situation will continue impacting the market since the investment levels are expected to remain vague, this translates into a low number of projects to be share out by a large number of players fighting to capitalize sales. The construction sector is expected to remain behaving in the same way during 2012 than it has done in 2011, if so it will recover modestly in a few particular micro segments. Heat pumps continue dominating the market on top of the cooling only options. The ASP for cooling only units has decreased in a major extent for some products trying to maintain their competitiveness in the market. In 2013, a new system of labelling the type of units is coming into force. It is based on their COP and has some new coefficients introduced in order to enhance the equipment s performance. Suppliers are not comfortable with the situation they have to face with regards to the payments. There is an existing tendency in the market of working only with installers and distributors who can guarantee some sort of credit or cash flow liquidity in order to keep the business running without incurring in non-payments which in the present times are not welcome by any of the agents involved in the market. Inverter units are expected to flood the market from early 2013 motivated by the new labelling policy to be enforced early in the year. BSRIA Page 10 of 73 Report 55302/13

15 Table 1 Current and future AC penetration into the residential and commercial market PENETRATION into commercial (approx.) 72% 75% PENETRATION into residential (approx.) 44% 47% based on various sources Figure 2 Overview of packaged air conditioning market, % by volume and value, 2011 Volume Value ( million) Total:767,531 units Total: million BSRIA Page 11 of 73 Report 55302/13

16 3 MARKET SIZE, STRUCTURE AND SEGMENTATION 3.1 MARKET SIZE Table 2 Volume of the packaged air conditioning market (units), (E) E Windows/through the wall 2,200 1,716 1,253 Moveables 32,129 25,607 19,461 Splits (1) 857, , ,116 VRF 14,490 11,476 7,804 Roof tops 1,850 1,906 1,811 Indoor packaged 13,310 12,722 11,959 Close control 4,113 3,578 3,042 Total 925, , ,446 Note: 1. Including all ducted and ductless splits Table 3 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (Euro million), (E) E Average Average Average million million million MSP MSP MSP 2012E Windows/through the wall Moveables Splits (1) (2) VRF ,552 10,277 10,315 Roof tops ,595 15,020 14,798 Indoor packaged ,903 2,778 2,807 Close control ,074 3,800 3,741 Total Note: 1. Including all ducted and ductless splits 2. Indoor and outdoor units at 1st point of distribution, eg. manufacturer to distributor BSRIA Page 12 of 73 Report 55302/13

17 Table 4 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (US$ million), (E) E Average Average Average US$ million US$ million US$ million MSP US$ MSP US$ MSP US$- 2012E Windows/through the wall Moveables Splits (1) (2) , VRF ,012 14,309 14,363 Roof tops ,380 20,915 20,605 Indoor packaged ,855 3,867 3,909 Close control ,410 5,291 5,209 Total 1, , ,284 1,304 1,242 Note: 1. Including all ducted and ductless splits 2. Indoor and outdoor units at 1st point of distribution, eg. manufacturer to distributor Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 (2010); 1 = US$1.39 (2011 onwards) Figure 3 Value of the packaged air conditioning market (Euro million), 2011 BSRIA Page 13 of 73 Report 55302/13

18 Figure 4 Volume of the packaged air conditioning market, WINDOWS/THROUGH THE WALL The Spanish market for windows is characterised for the popularity of the windows units as there are no sales reported for through the wall type. The windows units are considered old fashioned and are mainly installed into site-cabins placed on construction sites such for dwellings, office buildings, etc Another factor increasing their un-popularity relays on their price, which tends to be considerably high compared to other options available in the market place such as low budget 1x1 mini splits or portables. The market has been steadily decreasing in the latter years for the reason above. In 2011 the market was estimated to have decreased by 22% compared to The market is expected to remain performing steady declines for the next few years. With regards to the price, windows units have adjusted on the low during the last few years in an attempt to counterattack price competition from different products such as portables and single mini splits. Portable units also represent a stiff competition towards windows units as this type of product do not require any type of installation in most of the cases. This market is predicted to remain decreasing year on year, in most cases its main driver will be the reposition of existing units for new ones, becoming completely marginal with low interest for the supplier. Most companies offering this product do it as a complement of their product portfolio. Table 5 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), 2010 Window Through the wall Total Cooling only Heat pump 2, ,048 Resistance element Total 2, ,200 BSRIA Page 14 of 73 Report 55302/13

19 Table 6 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), 2011 Window Through the wall Total Cooling only Heat pump 1, ,630 Resistance element Total 1, ,716 Table 7 Window and through the wall analysed by mode, volume (units), 2012E Window Through the wall Total Cooling only Heat pump 1, ,228 Resistance element Total 1, ,253 Table 8 Window and through the wall analysed by size, volume (units), (E) E < 3.5kW 1,606 1, to 5.0kW > 5.01kW Total 2,200 1,716 1,253 Table 9 Window and through the wall analysed by size, value (Euro million), (E) E < 3.5kW to 5.0kW > 5.01kW Total Table 10 Window and through the wall analysed by size, value (US$ million), (E) E < 3.5kW to 5.0kW > 5.01kW Total Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 (2010); 1 = US$1.39 (2011 onwards) BSRIA Page 15 of 73 Report 55302/13

20 Figure 5 Windows and through the wall analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2011 By size By mode 3.3 MOVEABLES The Spanish market for moveable has been decreasing during 2011, however not to the extent it was forecasted previously. Some end users finally purchased this type of units rather than residential splits for budget reasons. Since these units tend to be in most cases cheaper than any other in the market they have become, in this difficult times, an attractive option for end users, overall when is only needed for a certain hot weather peak period. Cooling only type remains as the most popular type with an estimated share of 65% of the market whereas resistance element type remains stable in the market with a 25% market share. Most of the moveables units tend to be self contained as this option results easier for the end user to install becoming a plug and play option avoiding at the same time any extra installation cost. As it has been mentioned in previous reports this option becomes also attractive when space restrictions take place as the units can become quite versatile as to where to place/ fit them. Prices have decreased or adjust in order to become an attractive option for the end user. Another reason for the drop in price can be the market domination from the low budget brands blocking prime suppliers to increase the price of these units if the still want to remain competitive on the segment. Table 11 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), 2010 Self-contained Split Total Cooling only 16,105 4,435 20,540 Heat pump 0 2,460 2,460 Resistance element 6,707 2,423 9,129 Total units 22,812 9,317 32,129 Table 12 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), 2011 Self-contained Split Total Cooling only 13,144 3,338 16,482 Heat pump 0 1,880 1,880 Resistance element 5,421 1,824 7,245 Total units 18,565 7,042 25,607 BSRIA Page 16 of 73 Report 55302/13

21 Table 13 Moveables sales by type and mode, volume (units), 2012(E) Self-contained Split Total Cooling only 10,059 2,514 12,573 Heat pump 0 1,419 1,419 Resistance element 4,109 1,360 5,469 Total units 14,168 5,293 19,461 Table 14 Moveables sales analysed by size, volume (units), (E) E % share 2011 < 3.5 kw 31,133 24,864 18,916 97% kw % > 5.01 kw % Total units 32,129 25,607 19, % Table 15 Moveables sales analysed by size, value (Euro million), (E) E % share 2011 < 3.5 kw % kw % > 5.01 kw % Total units % Table 16 Moveables sales analysed by size, value (US$ million), (E) E % share 2011 < 3.5 kw % kw % > 5.01 kw % Total units % Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 (2010); 1 = US$1.39 (2011 onwards) Figure 6 Moveables analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2011 By size By mode BSRIA Page 17 of 73 Report 55302/13

22 3.4 SPLITS Despite the poor performance achieved during the last few years the Spanish split market still represents a good opportunity as for the relatively low residential AC penetration rate. It estimated that only 44% of the households include air conditioning under their premises. With this said, there is still an extensive field to cover along the residential side. As a consequence of the crisis the country has been facing for the last two years, end users are considerable much aware and cautious on where and what to spend their money. The end user does not longer consider AC as a primary need to look for but as a secondary or tertiary need. This new mentality is impacting on the sales which will take more time than expected to rally to the normal levels. With regards to sales towards the residential end of the market, there are existing subsided plans (in Spain referred as Planes Renove) for the renovation and the replacement of old equipment for a new and more efficient one. Depending on the region subsidies and availability for them might differ. These subsidies tend to cover different products such as washer machines, fridges, boilers, radiators etc Splits and VRF overview During 2011 the split market (including, ductless splits, ducted units and VRF) was estimated at 722,002 units representing a 17% decrease compared to the previous year. In 2012 things don t look much better. Ductless splits (including ductless single, multi and VRF) accounted for an estimated volume of 634,552 units representing the 88% of the split market. Ducted units market has been choked by the lack of construction projects orientated towards dwellings in most cases. New build building dwellings tend to include a preinstalled ducted system, leaving the option of which final indoor equipment to install to owner of the dwelling. Single mini-splits (wall mounted type) accounted in 2011 for 500,493 units reflecting again a decrease after the market recover back in Inverter units still dominate the market with an estimate share of 82%. Despite its domination non inverter units have slightly expanded during the last year and this tendency is expected to have continued during This latter cannot be considered a bounce back in the market trend but only a move from supplier in order to dispose all the existing non-inverter units before stiffer labelling regulation come in to place biding them for being sold. The market can be expected to start increasing from 2013 towards a noninverter unit free market. Multi-splits are still a popular option in the Spanish market. The market accounted for 66,052 units representing a -18% decline by volume compared to The market value was estimated at mills. The indoor Vs. outdoor ratio is estimated at 2.5, however this figure is expected to contract during 2012 as a consequence end user is still reducing budgets and expenditure spending in no more than the strictly necessary. With regards to the VRF the Spanish market has collapsed during 2011 and a major drop can be expected for The main driver for this type of product is the new build commercial and industrial applications, two of the segments more damaged within the construction sector. During 2011 most commercial and semi industrial segments including education, schools, public, industrial, warehouses and other miscellaneous industrial applications, achieved a 17.5% decrease in output compared to This situation has prevented the VRF for any major further expansion. Far from that the market still competes with the chiller in certain projects where both hold the same competitiveness as equipment but in most of the cases VRF easily ends up being more expensive than the chiller, losing some of its potential. BSRIA Page 18 of 73 Report 55302/13

23 On the other hand VRF units still hold a major edge towards chiller and its R22 phase out process. It can be considered that some installations equipped with units running R-22 type of refrigerant are likely to substitute the whole system for a more efficient one such as the VRF. Heat recovery option represents the 24% of the market, despite the fact that local administrations are prompting the use of more efficient AC systems including heat recovery options, the higher price compared to a normal VRF units does not justify on the end user eyes its purchase, which in most cases is a non-heat recovery unit. Table 17 Ductless split market analysed by volume (units), (E) E < 5 kw 447, , , kw 184, , ,686 > 7.01 kw 125, ,853 77,959 Total 758, , ,689 Single split 662, , ,734 Conventional multisplit 81,245 66,052 52,151 VRF 14,490 11,476 7,804 Total (2) 758, , ,689 Cooling only 30,574 25,071 19,338 Heat pump 724, , ,791 Resistance element Heat recovery (VRF only) 3,753 2,754 1,561 Total 758, , ,689 Notes: 1. Outdoor units 2. Excludes Japanese style and US style ducted single splits but includes ducted Multisplits and -VRF Table 18 Ductless split market analysed by value (Euro million), (E) E Average Average Average million million million MSP MSP MSP E < 5 kw kw > 7.01 kw ,264 2,204 2,022 Total Single split Conventional multisplit ,333 1,355 1,144 VRF ,552 10,277 10,315 Total Cooling only Heat pump Resistance element Heat recovery (VRF only) ,000 10,705 11,140 Total Notes: 1. Outdoor and indoor units 2. Excludes Japanese style and US style ducted single splits but includes ducted Multisplits and-vrf BSRIA Page 19 of 73 Report 55302/13

24 Table 19 Ductless split market analysed by value (US$ million), (E) E Average Average Average US$ million US$ million US$ million MSP US$ MSP US$ MSP US$- 2012E < 5 kw kw > 7.01 kw ,007 3,069 2,815 Total ,104 1,108 1,026 Single split Conventional multisplit ,770 1,886 1,593 VRF ,012 14,309 14,363 Total ,104 1,108 1,026 Cooling only Heat pump ,049 1, Resistance element Heat recovery (VRF only) ,607 14,905 15,512 Total ,104 1,108 1,026 Notes: 1. Outdoor and indoor units 2. Excludes Japanese style and US style ducted single splits but includes ducted Multisplits and VRF Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 (2010); 1 = US$1.39 (2011 onwards) Splits and VRF - size analysis, by mode and type of outdoor unit By mode cooling only units have maintained flat compared to previous years. Price difference compared to heat pumps has reinforced their position in the market blocking heat pumps to expand even further. This trend is not expected to maintain in the foreseeable future as manufacturers are narrowing the ends between the two types of products resulting in a small price difference between one and the other. This latter is only applicable for residential splits <5kW as larger splits behave in a different way, by this we understand that splits >5kW tend to have more accentuated price difference between the cooling options available in the market place than the residential splits. Within the ductless market heat pumps continue dominating the market with a share of 95.5% of the market followed by the cooling only type. The price difference has been narrowing with the pass of the time and the market offer in some case very cheap units including heat pump option (low budget brands tend to offer this option, whereas prime brands tend to accentuate more the price difference between them usually for marketing reasons. The most popular power range for single splits is the one below 5kW with an estimated share of 63% of the market. The rest of the market represents the share addressed towards the light commercial and commercial markets. With regards to the multi splits, the most popular power range is set between 3.5kW and 5kW representing the 43% of the market. BSRIA Page 20 of 73 Report 55302/13

25 Table 20 Sales of standard outdoor units, by size and mode, volume (units), 2011 Single split Conventional multi split Cooling Heat pump Resistance Total Cooling Heat pump Resistance Total only element only element < 3.5 kw 162,73 6, , kw 187,28 7, , ,087 27, , kw 130,86 4, , , , kw 2,487 54, , , , kw 1,145 17, , , ,526 > 17 kw Total units 557,02 22, , ,312 63, ,052 Note: Excludes Japanese style and US style ducted single splits but includes ducted multisplits Table 21 Sales of VRF outdoor units, by size and mode, volume (units), 2011 Cooling only Heat pump Heat recovery Total < 20 kw 20 3, , kw 38 3,435 1,267 4,877 > kw 34 2,181 1,487 3,139 Total 92 8,630 2,754 11,476 Table 22 VRF market by value and capacity installed, (F) E 2014F 2014F 2016(O) CAGR, %, Value sold, Euro million % HP cumulative sold 145,244 95,236 85,712 81,427 89, , % Horse power sold in a given year is calculated from multiplying the number of units sold with 4-6hp, 8hp, 0, hp and multiplying by the average system size in each segment. For example in 4-6hp average system size is 5hp BSRIA Page 21 of 73 Report 55302/13

26 Figure 7 Ductless splits market analysed by size, type and mode, volume (units), 2011 By size By type By mode Table 23 Ductless splits market by type of outdoor unit, volume (units), (E) E Outdoor Indoor Outdoor Indoor Outdoor Indoor Single split 662, , , , , ,734 Multisplit 81, ,486 66, ,003 52, ,084 VRF 14,490 82,593 11,476 64,266 7,804 45,263 Total 758, , , , , ,081 Note: Excludes Japanese style and US style ducted single splits but includes ducted multisplits and VRF Analysis by inverter Inverter units continue dominating the market. A few years ago it was thought the inverter units would have taken over the whole market, but these critical economic times we have been experiencing for the last three years have changed their performance within the market. Due to the new normative related to the new labelling for air conditioning equipment non-inverter units will not be allowed to be sold in the market as they will not reach the minimum level allowed to be sold. However it is thought that units will still be sold until wholesalers, distributors, installers and supplier dispose all the existing stocked units. BSRIA Page 22 of 73 Report 55302/13

27 During 2011 non inverter units increased faintly probably because the end user was starting to feel the pressure of the financial recession and was looking for cheaper options regardless their efficiency or brand. In most cases the purpose of the purchase was just to deal with a hot weather peak ; where the end user is not willing to see the benefits and savings on the mid/ long run but the money he is saving in the moment he purchases the equipment. Table 24 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, volume (units), (E) E Single split 537, , ,032 Multisplit 75,639 61,927 48,501 VRF 14,490 11,476 7,804 Total 627, , ,337 Note: Excludes Japanese style and US style ducted single splits but includes ducted multisplits and VRF Table 25 Ductless split market penetration of inverters, value (Euro million), (E) E Single split Multisplit VRF Total Note: Excludes Japanese style and US style ducted single splits but includes ducted multisplits and VRF Table 26 Ductless splits market penetration of inverters, value (US$ million), (E) E Single split Multisplit VRF Total Note: Excludes Japanese style and US style ducted single splits but includes ducted multisplits and VRF Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 (2010); 1 = US$1.39 (2011 onwards) Ducted splits size analysis by mode and type of outdoor unit Japanese type of ducted units still dominates the ducted market. They are more popular as they are ceiling concealed type of units not alike the US style type of units which don t. Also the price difference makes this option more attractive to the end user than the US type. US type normally tends to lie towards a more commercial orientated type of project whereas Japanese can be suitable for both residential and commercial. With regards to the power range the most common range is estimated to concentrate below 17.5kW with an estimated 92% of the market. Heat pumps along the ducted market represent the 94% of the market showing the complete domination of this option across different segments. BSRIA Page 23 of 73 Report 55302/13

28 Table 27 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, volume (units), (E) Japanese style E US style Total Japanese style US style Total Japanese style US style By size: < kw 87,890 15, ,813 66,345 13,452 79,796 54,028 9,951 63,979 > kw 7,594 2,205 9,798 5,822 1,831 7,654 4,859 1,393 6,252 Total 95,484 18, ,611 72,167 15,283 87,450 58,887 11,344 70,231 Cooling only 5,539 1,608 7,147 3,970 1,376 5,346 3, ,175 Heat pump 89,945 16, ,464 68,197 13,907 82,104 55,708 10,348 66,056 Total 95,484 18, ,611 72,167 15,283 87,450 58,887 11,344 70,231 Note: Includes single splits only Table 28 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), 2010 Japanese style US style Total By size: < kw > kw Total Cooling only Heat pump Total Note: Includes single splits only Table 29 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), 2011 Japanese style US style Total Average MSP Euro (Japanese style) Total Average MSP Euro (US style) By size: < kw ,362 1,570 > kw ,630 2,083 Total ,384 1,631 Cooling only ,173 1,208 Heat pump ,396 1,673 Total ,384 1,631 Note: Includes single splits only Table 30 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (Euro million), 2012(E) Japanese style US style Total By size: < kw > kw Total Cooling only Heat pump Total Note: Includes single splits only BSRIA Page 24 of 73 Report 55302/13

29 Table 31 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), 2010 Japanese style US style Total By size: < kw > kw Total Cooling only Heat pump Total Note: Includes single splits only Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.39 Table 32 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), 2011 Japanese style US style Total Average MSP US$ (Japanese style) Average MSP US$ (US style) By size: < kw ,897 2,186 > kw ,269 2,901 Total ,927 2,271 Cooling only ,634 1,682 Heat pump ,944 2,330 Total ,927 2,271 Note: Includes single splits only Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 Table 33 Ducted splits analysed by size and mode, value (US$ million), 2012(E) Japanese style US style Total By size: < kw > kw Total Cooling only Heat pump Total Note: Includes single splits only Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 BSRIA Page 25 of 73 Report 55302/13

30 Figure 8 Ducted splits market analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2011 By size By mode Analysis by inverter Table 34 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, volume (units), (E) E Japanese style 81,203 60,958 49,583 USA style 14,327 12,154 9,115 Total 95,530 73,111 58,698 Table 35 Ducted split market penetration of inverters, value (Euro million), (E) E Japanese style USA style Total Table 36 Ducted splits market penetration of inverters, value (US$ million), (E) E Japanese style USA style Total Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 (2010); 1 = US$1.39 (2011 onwards) Analysis by type of indoor unit The market for indoor units continues being dominated by the wall type for ductless splits, holding the 75% of the market. Note that most units included in this segment are absorbed by the residential segments. The rest of the market account for the commercial segments demanding single splits including large power range which in most cases excess the 5kW. VRF market on the other hand shows a different picture where the ducted and the cassette types becomes the top selling indoor unit as for its versatility to cover extensive areas with its air flow. This market split is expected to remain stable during the next few years. The ratio for indoor units for VRF was estimated in 2011 at 1x 5.6. BSRIA Page 26 of 73 Report 55302/13

31 Table 37 Sales of splits standard indoor units (non-vrf) analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2011 Wall Ceiling type Floor/ vertical or consoles Cassette Ducted Japanese style Ducted US style < 3.5 kw 191,491 1, ,298 8,828 2, , kw 212,234 4, ,119 16,693 2, , kw 155,902 3, ,441 30,587 3, , kw 42,880 3, ,362 26,956 2, , kw 1,622 1, ,841 12,930 1,909 26,912 > 17 kw 0 5, ,509 8,484 1,831 19,360 Total 604,129 20,416 1,601 59, ,478 15, ,477 Note: 1. Including all indoor units, also Japanese style and US style ducted Table 38 Sales of splits standard indoor units (non-vrf) analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E) Wall Ceiling type Floor/ vertical or consoles Cassette Ducted Japanese style Ducted US style < 3.5 kw 149,003 1, ,533 5,756 1, , kw 165,916 3, ,783 13,199 2, , kw 121,150 2, ,564 24,424 2, , kw 33,245 2, ,379 21,586 1,907 79, kw 881 1, ,712 10,331 1,321 20,489 > 17 kw 0 4, ,774 6,610 1,393 15,033 Total 470,193 15,814 1,046 45,746 81,906 11, ,049 Note: 1. Including all indoor units, also Japanese style and US style ducted Table 39 Sales of VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2011 Wall Ceiling type Floor/ vertical or consoles Total Total Cassette Ducted Total < 3.5 kw 3, , kw 3, ,496 2,808 10, kw 1, ,152 3,666 9, kw ,244 9,068 15,136 25, kw 0 0 1,557 5,135 6,651 13,343 > 17 kw ,301 1,301 Total 8, ,856 21,850 29,562 64,266 BSRIA Page 27 of 73 Report 55302/13

32 Table 40 Sales of VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E) Wall Ceiling type Floor/ vertical or consoles Cassette Ducted Total < 3.5 kw 2, , kw 2, ,616 2,150 7, kw ,078 2,795 7, kw ,156 11,180 18, kw ,540 4,580 9,090 > 17 kw Total 5, ,489 15,389 21,500 45,263 Table 41 Sales of standard + VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2011 Wall Ceiling type Floor/ vertical or consoles Cassette Ducted Japanese style Ducted US style < 3.5 kw 194,774 2, ,298 8,828 2, , kw 215,401 4, ,615 19,501 2, , kw 157,498 3, ,592 34,253 3, , kw 43,061 3,882 1,480 34,430 42,092 2, , kw 1,622 1,610 1,557 13,976 19,581 1,909 40,256 > 17 kw 0 5, ,509 9,785 1,831 20,661 Total 612,355 21,187 5,457 81, ,040 15, ,743 Note: 1. Including all indoor units, also Japanese style and US style ducted Table 42 Sales of standard + VRF indoor units analysed by size and mounting, volume (units), 2012(E) Wall Ceiling type Floor/ vertical or consoles Cassette Ducted Japanese style Ducted US style < 3.5 kw 151,257 1, ,533 5,756 1, , kw 168,115 3, ,399 15,349 2, , kw 122,019 2, ,642 27,219 2, , kw 33,353 2, ,535 32,766 1,907 97, kw 881 1, ,252 14,911 1,321 29,579 > 17 kw 0 4, ,774 7,405 1,393 15,828 Total 475,625 16,267 3,535 61, ,406 11, ,312 Note: 1. Including all indoor units, also Japanese style and US style ducted Total Total BSRIA Page 28 of 73 Report 55302/13

33 Figure 9 Split indoor units, by size and mounting, volume (units), 2011 Figure 10 Split indoor units, by size and mounting, volume (%), ROOFTOPS The behaviour of the roof top market, contrary to the rest of the market performance, reflected a soft increase during 2011 compared to previous years. This was motivated to some extent for particular projects which were stocked in the pipeline for a few years, finally seeing the light during 2011 and early By type, Heat pump is the model still governing the market, in 2011 the heat pump segment was estimated at 77%. BSRIA Page 29 of 73 Report 55302/13

34 In 2011 the market accounted for 1,906 units establishing a 3% increase compared to the previous year whereas in 2012 the market is expected to decline as the flow of projects has reduced since mid 2011, The market is expected could perform in the range of 5% drop at the end of The classic type of end user includes large shopping centres, sport centres, cinemas, etc. This product is commonly installed in buildings with just one storey/ floor. In buildings with more storeys the installation becomes more difficult to achieve, which in any case can cover some other product/ solutions available in the market such as ducted units, VRF, multisplits etc. Table 43 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), 2010 Cooling only Heat pump Gas fired Dual Fuel Total < kw > kw 235 1, ,611 Total 272 1, ,850 Table 44 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), 2011 Cooling only Heat pump Gas fired Dual Fuel Total < kw > kw 246 1, ,662 Total 284 1, ,906 Table 45 Rooftops market by size and mode, volume (units), 2012(E) Cooling only Heat pump Gas fired Dual Fuel Total < kw > kw 237 1, ,577 Total 274 1, ,811 Table 46 Rooftops market by size, volume (units), (E) E % share (2011) 0-20 kw % kw % kw % > kw % Total 1,850 1,906 1, % BSRIA Page 30 of 73 Report 55302/13

35 Figure 11 Rooftops analysed by size and mode, volume (units), 2011 By size By mode 3.6 INDOOR PACKAGED (SELF CONTAINED) Spain is one the countries where this self-contained packaged units are characterized for being considerably popular for certain application such restaurants, large meeting rooms, banks and offices in some cases. The market accounted in 2011 for 12,722 units, representing a 5% drop compared to the previous year. The modest fall was motivated again by particular ventures and projects stuck in the pipeline for the last few years. By mode heat pumps dominate the market with an estimated share of 78% of the market followed by the cooling only units, representing the 12% of the market. The most popular size for indoor packaged products is the one comprising from 17.5kW to 50kW holding an estimated 48% of the market. Table 47 Indoor packaged market, volume (units), (E) E Small consoles Other indoor packaged 13,310 12,722 11,959 Total 13,310 12,722 11,959 Table 48 Indoor packaged market, value (Euro million), (E) E Average Average Average million million million MSP MSP MSP 2012E Small consoles Other indoor packaged ,903 2,778 2,807 Total ,903 2,778 2,807 BSRIA Page 31 of 73 Report 55302/13

36 Table 49 Indoor packaged market, value (US$ million), (E) E Average Average Average MSP US$ US$ US$ MSP MSP US$ million million million US$ 2010 US$ E Small consoles Other indoor packaged ,855 3,867 3,909 Total ,855 3,867 3,909 Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 (2010); 1 = US$1.39 (2011 onwards) Table 50 Indoor packaged market analysed by mode and size, volume (units), 2010 Cooling only Heat pump Resistance element Total By size: < 7 kw 174 1, , kw 502 3, , kw 877 5, ,512 > 50 kw Total 1,597 10,449 1,264 13,310 Table 51 Indoor packaged market by mode and size, volume (units), 2011 Cooling only Heat pump Resistance element Total By size: < 7 kw 169 1, , kw 491 3, , kw 843 4, ,196 > 50 kw Total 1,543 9,982 1,198 12,722 Table 52 Indoor packaged market by mode and size, volume (units), 2012(E) Cooling only Heat pump Resistance element Total By size: < 7 kw 157 1, , kw 451 3, , kw 786 4, ,824 > 50 kw Total 1,431 9,389 1,138 11,959 BSRIA Page 32 of 73 Report 55302/13

37 Figure 12 Indoor packaged market analysed by size, volume (units), CLOSE CONTROL The market for close control has been achieving constant declines for the last few years as a consequence of the restricted budgets held by the end user for this application. It also has been impacted by a steady slowdown in the telephone micro sector which after setting their different networks across the national territory has decreased its activity to the extent that only replacement of existing and faulted units is what is common nowadays. This goes in line with the market performance with the rest of the different product segments One of the key drivers for this market are the computer rooms included in most of the banks, offices, public buildings, administration buildings etc.which require some sort of close control in attempt to regulate besides from the temperature, the moisture, humidity, and different key indicators necessary for the healthy performance of a computerized room. This is crucial in order to avoid any system failure, data loss etc In 2011 the market volume was estimated at 3,578 units representing a 13% decrease compared to This trend is expected to continue during 2012 and 2013 expecting a modest recover from 2014 and onwards. By power range the most popular size lays on the segments comprising from 10kW up to 20kW, it accounts for 30% of the market. Table 53 Close control market analysed by application, volume (units), (E) E Computer 2,879 2,540 2,282 Telecom Other Total 4,113 3,578 3,042 BSRIA Page 33 of 73 Report 55302/13

38 Table 54 Close control market analysed by application, value (Euro million), (E) E Average Average Average million million million MSP 2010 MSP 2011 MSP 2012 Computer ,191 3,901 3,841 Telecom ,570 3,325 3,242 Other ,341 4,053 3,955 Total ,074 3,800 3,741 Table 55 Close control market analysed by application, value (US$ million), (E) E Average Average Average US$ million US$ million US$ million MSP US$ 2010 MSP US$ 2011 MSP US$ 2012 Computer ,566 5,432 5,348 Telecom ,741 4,629 4,514 Other ,765 5,644 5,506 Total ,410 5,291 5,209 Exchange rate: 1 = US$1.33 (2010); 1 = US$1.39 (2011 onwards) Close control analysed by size Table 56 Close control market by size, volume (units), (E) E <7 kw kw kw 1,233 1, KW >40 kw Total 4,113 3,578 3,042 Figure 13 Close control market analysed by size, volume (units), 2011 BSRIA Page 34 of 73 Report 55302/13