Estimation of Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Ghana, Methodology and Results 12/04/2018

Transcription

1 Estimation of Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Ghana, Methodology and Results

2 OUTLINE OBJECTIVES OF STUDY METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW OF VEHICLE INVENTORY IN GHANA DATA CLEANING RESULTS OF DATA ANALYSIS CONCLUSION

3 OBJECTIVES OF STUDY To carry out an inventory of LDVs (new and used) imported between 2005 and 2016 using the GFEI Methodological Guide to Developing fuel economy database. Use the data from the inventory to estimate baseline and average fuel economy for Ghana Estimate CO2 emissions for LDVs imported between 2005 and 2016 Review policies and regulations in place to promote the use of cleaner and fuel efficient LDVs in Ghana. Conduct Cost Benefit analysis of key policy interventions to promote fuel economy in Ghana Provide policy recommendations aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting vehicle fuel efficiency

4 METHODOLOGY -GFEI STEPS Set Objectives Obtain Vehicle Registration Data Clean Data Structure Data Estimate Baseline Fuel Economy Report findings

5 Assumptions In Vehicle Where order the import to project fuel data economy future was used and fleet CO2 for population, the Emission study years instead of a particular with of vehicle no or year incomplete registration for a not particular data distinction were due to vehicle forecasted the between unavailability is not to the available, give fuel a of more economies digitized data realistic registration the of projection. manual closest year and data automatic was on individual used on the transmission assumption LDVs and in that the of manner there same would prescribed vehicle marginal type. by the We variance assume IEA data a between frame marginal of years. key variance attributes between on auto fuel the economy. two transmission We presume types a of strong the same correlation vehicle. between the import data and registered LDVs to produce results. There was no attribute for transmission type in the data. We therefore did

6 OVERVIEW OF VEHICLE INVENTORY IN GHANA Year No. of LDVs Imported , , , , , NIL , , , , , ,424 Total 1,018,884

7 Gaps Identified in the data Incomplete Data 2016 Jan-Oct No data for No data for Nov and about 1 week transaction for each month. Spelling Mistakes Wrong Inputs Incomplete information on LDVs

8 Images of data cleaning

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10 Data Cleaning (i) HDVs, motorcycles, trailers, combined harvesters etc; (ii) incomplete entries i.e. datasets that did not contain all variables required for the studies; (iii) For the purpose of this study, LDVs which were above 10 years old on the date of import were also removed Identify and Isolate relevant key attributes (column headlines) based on IEA Data frame of key attributes from the dataset Merging of synonymous information e.g Chevrolet and Chevy Correction of spelling Mistakes Removal of wrong inputs Systematic removal of incomplete information on vehicle Addition of other relevant fields

11 USEFUL WEBSITES

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14 Results of Data Analysis Av. Fuel Economy and CO2 Emission Years Av. L/100km Av. CO2(g/km) Grand Total

15 L/100km CO2(g/km) TABLES AND GRAPHS Av. Fuel Efficiency & CO2 Emission per Year Average of L/100km Average of CO2(g/km) Year 150

16 L/100km Fuel Economy NEW Condition USED

17 L/100km Fuel Economy of New and Used LDVs NEW USED Year

18 L/100KM 7.8 Fuel Economy of newer and older LDVs YEAR <=5years >5years

19 L/100km Fuel Economy of Used LDVs >5years <=5years Year

20 L/100km AV. FUEL ECONOMY BY FUEL TYPE DIESEL Fuel Type PETROL

21 L/100km 7.8 Fuel Economy by fuel type DIESEL PETROL Year

22 LDV Population Distribution by fuel type and condition Row Labels DIESEL PETROL Grand Total NEW 36,999 15,584 52,583 USED 9,003 88,778 97,781 Grand Total 46, , ,364

23 Axis Title DISTRIBUTION OF VEHICLE BY FUEL TYPE AND CONDITION 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 DIESEL PETROL 30,000 20,000 10,000 - NEW VEHICLE CONDITION USED

24 Average Age of Vehicle by fuel type Year DIESEL PETROL Grand Total Grand Total

25 Av. Age of Vehicle 12.0 Av. Age of Vehicle by Fuel Type PETROL DIESEL

26 DIESEL PETROL Row Labels NEW USED TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL % 33% 3, % 89.4% 7, % 26% 4, % 82.9% 7, % 18% 6, % 82.0% 8, % 15% 5, % 83.6% 9, % 16% 5, % 80.2% 9, % 10% 1, % 84.4% 2, % 15% 7, % 86.4% 14, % 13% 3, % 85.9% 6, % 18% 3, % 80.1% 10, % 28% 2, % 89.6% 13, % 34% 2, % 87.9% 14,859 Grand Total 80% 20% 46, % 85.1% 104,362

27 Engine cc Engine Displacement by fuel type Average of Year

28 Year Average Engine cc Average L/100km Grand Total

29 Av. Engine cc L/100km Engine Displacement against Fuel Economy Average of Engine cc Average of L/100km Year

30 200, ,000 No. of LDVs Imported per Year y = x - 9E , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,

31 No. of Vehicls CUMMULATIVE NUMBER OF LDVs Year

32 YEAR CUMULATIVE NO. OF LDVs , , , , , , , , , , ,083, ,195, ,728, ,355, ,403, ,871,418

33 CONCLUSION Ghana imported more petrol fuelled LDVs (104,362 ) than diesel fuel LDVs (46,002) in 2005 to 2016 The fuel economy of LDVs have been reducing over the years Only 15% of imported petrol fuelled LDVs are new while 80% of imported diesel fuelled LDVs are new The fuel economy of new LDVs imported into Ghana from 2005 to 2016 have lower fuel (6.9) than used LDVs (7.4) The fuel economy of used LDVs less than 5 years is lower than used LDVs greater than 5 years old Diesel fuelled LDVs have lower fuel economy(7.0) than petrol fuelled LDVs (7.3)

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