Multi-Tier Framework Survey Kenya

Transcription

1 Ministry of Energy & Petroleum, Kenya Multi-Tier Framework Survey Kenya Preliminary Results for 14 underserved counties in Kenya May 9,

2 Part 1 Overview of the Approach 2

3 Introduction: Profile of Kenya Unitary state under a Presidential system with some functions devolved to 47 counties led by Governors Population: 46 million, GDP: US$ 63.4 Billion, GDP per capita US$ 1,377 (Source: World Bank, 2015) About 4.8 million HH (FY 2015/6) connected up from 2.3 million (FY 2012/3) (Source: Kenya Power, 2016) 64% of the population have access to grid electricity (MoEP, 2017 estimates) Installed capacity at 2,341 MW (Source: Kenya Power 2016) 3

4 Key Aspects of the MTF Survey - Moving from a binary approach of measuring electricity access (electrified vs non-electrified) to evaluating this based on MTF s six attributes of (i) peak capacity, (ii) availability, (iii) reliability, (iv) quality, (v) legality and (vi) safety - Target including oversampling: 4

5 Key Outputs of the MTF Survey 7,331 interviews were completed (6,025 households, 477 education facilities, 150 health facilities, 133 government offices, 246 worship centers and 305 focus group discussions). Extensive dataset covering various aspects including (1647 possible Qs): - basic demographics, occupation, - access to finance, - grid based electricity and non-grid based electricity, - energy for cooking and other thermal applications - energy consumption and costs, - total household consumptions - exposure to indoor air pollution, - attitudes towards modern energy, among others interviews were completed in the 14 underserved counties. This is the focus of this presentation. 5

6 Lessons from the MTF Backend automation: Minimize opportunities for human errors (CAPI, ODK, GIS tools etc.) Training approaches: All questions are equal but some are more equal than others Layers of verification: GIS maps, use independent verifiers, random calls to respondents, duration of the interviews etc. Standardize but consider the local context: For example, (i) Types of questions do you own land, how much rent would you receive ; (ii) Use local enumerators and entities; (iii) Train locally; (iv) Data collection team should also be the data cleaning team (the case of US$ 1.5 connections) Limit interview duration to 1 hour: Validate through pre-testing 6

7 Part 2 Summary of Findings (14 Counties ONLY) 7

8 Power Sector: Vision Transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens. Access to competitively-priced, reliable, quality, safe, and sustainable energy is essential for achievement of the vision. Grid connectivity is limited to the Mombasa- Nairobi-Kisumu corridor and remains nascent and uneconomical for the project area Historical focus on centralized grid extension National electrification rate of Kenya is 64% - aiming for universal electrification by 2020 Last Mile Connectivity Program plans to achieve 7 electrification The presentation features results only from the 14 underserved counties and not the entire county 8

9 The 14 Underserved Counties Higher incidence of poverty and low income levels Highly dispersed population (including pastoralist communities) About 2 of Kenya s population live in the underserved counties Total population estimated to be 1.2 million households, off-grid population is 650,000 households

10 Findings: Binary vs MTF Survey Traditional Binary Approach (Grid Only) Multi-tier Framework Approach % % A few grid connected HH are in Tier % No Electricity Access Electricity Access % 1 1 7% 3% Tier 0 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5

11 Findings: Binary vs MTF Survey (Rural vs Urban) % Over 5 of urban HH are in tier % 23% 16% 13% 1 7% 7% 4% 5% 5% 2% Tier 0 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Rural Urban

12 1 2 Findings: Grid Alternatives (Solar Devices) % HH with SL comparable in rural grid connected & nonconnected HH Solar Lanterns (SL) 3 25% SL users SHS users SLS users HH with multiple systems 2 Solar Lighting Systems (SLS) 15% 1 5% Solar Home Systems (SHS) Urban Rural Urban Rural Grid access No grid access All HHs 33% of HH have at least solar device

13 1 3 Findings: Duration of Use & Satisfaction Years using solar Rural Urban TOTAL less than years more than 3 years % satisfied or very satisfied Rural Urban Total solar home system solar lantern and solar lighting systems All devices Over 7 of all solar devices acquired in the last 3 years 52% of SHS owners report being satisfied or very satisfied 45% of SLS and lanterns report being satisfied or very satisfied

14 1 4 Findings: Appliance Ownership 10 75% 5 25% at least one mobile phone tv radio refrigerator fan High mobile phone ownership linked to high demand for solar devices

15 Findings: Use of Mobile Money 89% of HHs use mobile money for multiple applications: Sending and/or receiving money to/from family & friends Topping up credit Transferring credit to family or friends Paying bills More households have an mobile money account than own a mobile phone 1 5

16 Findings: Solar PV Acquisition Solar Lanterns (SL) 4 32% 34% 2 Solar Lighting Systems (SLS) 7% 1% 5% 4% Solar Home Systems (SHS) SL SLS SHS The rest acquired through cash sales

17 Findings: Lighting for off-grid (Non-Solar) 8 6 kerosene candles rechargable batteries dry cells w/torches generators no lighting source 4 2 Urban rural TOTAL not grid/mini-grid connected and not solar Unelectrified households still rely mostly on kerosene, followed by dry cells/torches

18 Findings: Cost of Replaceable Energy Services 5 Urban 5 Rural 5 Total Over 3 of unelectrified households already pay over $5 a month for lighting, cell phone charging and dry cell batteries But 5 pay less than $2 a month - affordability is an issue

19 Consultants: EED Advisory Limited ( Stockholm Environment Institute ( 19