Electricity industry structure and capacity growth trends

Transcription

1 Electricity industry structure and capacity growth trends Restructuring since 1997 has resulted in the separation of electricity generation from transmission and distribution. However, the sector continues to be largely dominated by owned by state-owned companies. KenGen controls about 70 per cent of the total installed capacity. IPPs account for over 22 per cent and the remaining capacity is owned by the emergency power producer, Aggreko. Power is responsible for electricity transmission, distribution and retail supply. In December 2008, Electricity Transmission Company Limited (KETRACO) was established to undertake the construction and operation of a new high voltage transmission network. The existing transmission system continues to be owned and operated by Power. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), set up in 2007, is the regulator for the electricity and petroleum sectors. Figure 1: Growth in s installed electricity capacity (MW) Figure 2: Growth in s electricity generation and consumption (GWh) CAGR XX% XX% CAGR XX % XX % Note: E 2015 data has been estimated based on projects completed during the year. Data is as of June 30 for every year. Source: Power Generation Consumption* Note: E 2015 data estimated based on CAGR between 2009 and Data is as of June 30 for every year. * estimated from electricity sales and power import-export data. Source: Power At the end of 2015, s installed generation capacity is estimated to be around MW, of which XX per cent was hydroelectric, XX per cent was thermal and XX per cent was based on renewable energy, mainly geothermal. Electricity production has grown at a CAGR of XX per cent between 2006 and 2015 and consumption at a CAGR of XX per cent. 1

2 Growth in transmission network and capacity had a total transmission network of circuit km and MVA of transformer capacity as of June The transmission network consists of only 132 kv and 220 kv lines. has a 132 kv cross-border electricity interconnection with Uganda via which it imports power from and exports power to Uganda and Tanzania. Table 1: Growth in 's transmission line length (circuit km) Voltage 132 kv 220 kv Total Note: E 2015 data estimated based on CAGR between 2009 and Data is as of June 30 for every year. Source: Power and KETRACO Table 2: Growth in 's transformer capacity (MVA) Voltage 220 kv 132 kv Total Note: E 2015 data estimated based on CAGR between 2009 and Data is as of June 30 for every year. Source: Power and KETRACO Figure 3: Growth in 's transmission line network (circuit km) CAGR = 6.2% Figure 4: Growth in 's transformer capacity (MVA) 2

3 Expected generation capacity addition and consumption Figure 5: Expected addition to generation capacity in (MW) Figure 6: Expected growth in electricity demand in (GWh) 1 X X X X X X X X X X Delayed projects* * Note: * Projects that were scheduled for commissioning between June 2014 and June 2015 but are yet to be commissioned. Future capacity addition figures include only committed projects to be added under the government s 5,000+ MW generation plan. Note: 1 Forecasted energy demand as per high case scenario; * Estimated based on CAGR between 2021 and 2024 As per s 10-year Power Sector Expansion Plan , around MW of capacity will be added to s grid by the end of Some of the committed projects include the geothermal Olkaria Units V and VI power plants, Meru (Isiolo) wind farm, Mombasa LNG power plant, and Lamu and Kitui coal power plants, etc. The government launched the MW for Transforming initiative in June 2013, which aims to increase the existing national installed capacity to >6,700 MW in 40 months. As per the high case scenario (developed in line with fast tracked Vision 2030 projects), electricity demand is forecasted to increase from to X GWh in 2024, at an average yearly growth rate of XX per cent. 3

4 Expected growth in transmission network and capacity As per s 10-year Power Sector Expansion Plan , around km of new transmission lines, X MVA of transformer capacity and XX new substations will be added to the n grid between 2016 and The country s focus is on building a 400 kv system to strengthen the existing 220 kv and 132 kv grid network. Key transmission projects to be implemented during this period include the Nairobi Metropolitan Ring project, Power Transmission System Improvement Programme and Electricity Expansion Programme (KEEP). Three cross-border projects 500 kv HVDC Ethiopia interconnector, the 400 kv Uganda line and the 400 kv Tanzania interconnection are at various stages of development. Table 3: s planned transmission network addition Figure 7 : s planned line length addition (km) Voltage E Total Transmission line length (km) XXX 132 kv AC XX 220 kv AC 1 XXX 400 kv AC XXX 500 kv HVDC XXX X XXX Transformer capacity (MVA) X 132 kv AC XXX XXX XXX 220 kv AC 400 kv AC X Number of substations XX XX XX 132 kv AC XX X XX 220 kv AC XX X XX 400 kv AC X X XX Note: 1 includes 220 kv lines operating at 400 kv; AC alternating current; HVDC high voltage direct current; E 2025 data has been estimated based on network additions expected to take place during Figure 8 : s planned transformer capacity addition (MVA) 4 XXX XXX X

5 Expected investment in transmission network and outlook Between 2016 and 2024, KETRACO is expected to invest over KESXXX billion on the expansion of s grid network. Of the total investment, KESXXX billion will be spent on the development of new high voltage transmission lines while KESXX billion will be invested on the construction of new substations and adding transformer capacity. Around XX per cent of the planned investment will take place before Of the total planned investment, funds worth KESXXX billion have been secured from various development agencies such as the AfDB, World Bank, KfW etc. X Figure 9: s planned investment in transmission network and capacity (KES million) X X X X X X E Note: E Estimated based on investments expected to take place during s Vision 2030 strategy which aims to provide a high quality of life to all its citizens through economic growth and transformation will play a critical role in the development of the country s energy and electricity sector. The 10-year plan supports the government s aim to accelerate power generation in the country to support the expected demand surge from Vision 2030 projects. has also formulated an elaborate grid expansion plan to boost transfer capability, increase grid access and connect upcoming generation capacity. However, the pace of implementation has so far been slow. The country needs to ensure planned projects are completed in a timely and effective manner in order to achieve the targets set out in the Vision 2030 development plan. 5