The future transport markets

Transcription

1 Innovation Centre for Mobility and Societal Change The future transport markets Some impacts of demographic, economic and societal change Frank Hunsicker Berlin, 10/11/2011

2 InnoZ structure: Five departments and areas of expertise 1 Mobility in change Demografic, social, political, ecological, economic, structural and technological trends and their consequences on mobility sustainable infrastructure systems transport concepts innovative public 2 3 green mobility 4 5 media based mobility 2

3 The Population will continue to decrease and get older but with regional differences in % Net immigration gain: persons p.a. -2,5% Mio. P ,4 15,9-1% +9% 81,4 17,3-1% +25% 80,4 21, % ,0-1% 51,5-9% 47,1-9% ,6-13% 12,6-8% -21% 11, under to 65 over 65 source: BBR

4 Most important difference: Immigration in % Net immigration gain: persons p.a. -6,4% Mio. P ,4 15,9-2% +9% 80,5 17,3-4% +24% 77,2 21, % ,0-3% 50,7-12% 44,7-16% ,6-14% 12,5-12% -24% 11, under to 65 over 65 source: BBR

5 Limited economic growth will put labour market and incomes under pressure Continuing Globalisation Disposable real income assumption [% p.a.] Incomes under pressure. Increasing gap between higher and lower income groups 2,0 1,5 1,0 1,8 1,7 1,2 Declining subsidies for private households and public affairs 0,5 ITP/BVU ifmo InnoZ source: InnoZ (2009) 5

6 Long term rise of crude oil prices as an indicator for energy price development 3 scenarios up to 2035: world GDP inflation Base: +2,7% p.a. +2,1% p.a. Low : +1,5% p.a. +2,3% p.a. High: +3,5% p.a. +2,1% p.a. Crude Oil price, real (CAGR , US-$/Barrel) 200 High : 4,5% p.a Base: 3,5% p.a. Low : 2,5% p.a Basis Low High source: InnoZ (2011) 6

7 Development of mobility costs Possible mobility cost shift up to 2030 (Index, 2005=100) Cost of living 145 cars Regional trains Public road transport source: InnoZ (2010) 7

8 Travel demand decreases as people get older. mobile age groups 60 km 50 2,9 2,9 3,3 3,5 47,4 3,6 3,8 49,3 50,0 3,6 46,5 3,3 2,8 trips 4,0 3,5 3, ,0 2,3 2, ,0 25,3 1,6 2, ,6 17,9 15,9 1,5 1,0 10 8,7 0,5 0 0,0 under over 80 km per person and day Trips per person and day 8

9 But: Older people are the only growing population group, increasing their importance in a shrinking transport market [km] ,5 3, ,0 3,2 2, ,3 2,7 2, ,9 1,8 1,6 11 8,7 [trips] 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Felt age is several years below real age More active participation in corporate and social life Open-mindendness towards modern life über 80 km per person and day trips per person and day source: InnoZ (2010) 0,0 9

10 Driving license holders in 2030: Proportion of elderly will be much higher, higher percentage of women. Extrapolation of today s driving license percentage up to 2030 source: InnoZ (2010) 10

11 Considering only the age factor, some german regions will suffer a decrease in travel demand -2,0-3,0-6,4-10,4-1,5-2,9-6,5-13,2 0,7 0,6 0,1-0,3-0,9-4,2-1,1-2,4-5,1-4,8-8,0 4,1 3,1 4,2 0,4-1,8-3,5-7,3-11,5-10,4-10,5-14,0-12,8-21,2-17,5-27,7-24,4-9,6-33,3-13,6-18,2-25,0-1,3-2,7-4,8-8,9-7,7-11,0-4,6-17,4-10,9-23,0-14,6-26,9 30 % 15 % 7,5 % Veränderungen in % gegenüber 2002 Bundesrepublik Deutschland gesamt: Wohnbevölkerung Verkehrsleistung Wohnbevölkerung Verkehrsleistung ,8-3,4-6,5-11,4-6,3-6,7 N -13,9-17,8 1,8 1,3-0,2-4,1 1,8 0,8-0,4-4,8 Berechnungen der Verkehrsleistung basieren auf der Annahme, dass sich die Verkehrsleistung pro Einwohner gegenüber 2002 nicht verändern wird (ceteris paribus) km 11

12 Mobility of young Germans: car ownership and use declines in the age of 18 to 29 Car ownership years Frequency of car use years [%] % daily 1-3 times per week 1-3 times per month) less than once per month never source: Fraunhofer IAO, KBA, Arthur D. Little source: BMVBS (2003 & 2009) 12

13 Up to 2030: Passenger transport market will remain static, while freight transport will greatly increase Fewer Germans on the move But more freight trains ø -3,9% Verden Y-Trasse Lüneburg +247 Wittenberge Salzwedel +143 Emmerich Wesel +103 Kassel/ Göttingen Fulda +153 Dresden Bad Schandau +64 Karlsruhe Rastatt +94 source: DB ML AG Regensburg Bad Passau

14 Eco Rail Innovation study: An innovative alliance of DB, industry, and research Coordinated by InnoZ Analyses of significant trends and driving forces for development of railway transport up to 2020 Companies, associations, and institutions involved Main goals: Developing technical solutions for the economic and ecologic strengthening of the railway system Technological and scientific leadership roles in the cause of sustainable mobility Focuses: developing low-emission and energy-efficient components and drive systems, e.g. energy reservoirs for railway vehicles. implementation of the zero emissions vision for vehicles and facilities 14

15 Several megatrends indicate the necessity of new mobility concepts Climate change: Ecological awareness extreme weather phenomena More energy from renewable resources and decentralised energy supply Budget deficits New status symbols: IC techololgies Inter-/multimodal mobility: Don t own it just use it Growing urban and Shrinking and ageing metropolitan regions populations Increasing regulation of city space Rising mobility costs Interconnection of work, familiy and education 15

16 Thank you! 16