Work Package 3 More electrification in Europe: directions from the ELIPTIC transferability exercise

Transcription

1 Work Package 3 More electrification in Europe: directions from the ELIPTIC transferability exercise Maria Vittoria Corazza, Antonio Musso, UNIROMA1 ELIPTIC Final Conference Bremen, April th 2018

2 Evaluation framework Eventually we are here.. In progress + CBA In progress

3 UNIROMA1 Evaluation steps Task 3.6 TRANSFERABILITY EXERCISE What it is? Hence, is the ability to transfer/adopt in a given city successful measures previously adopted elsewhere, comparable results being achieved Eliptic use cases = origin cities Respondents = target cities

4 UNIROMA1 Evaluation steps Task 3.6 TRANSFERABILITY EXERCISE Preparation of the methodology (done) Development of the Exercise (close to the end) Analysis of results (in progress) Deliverable 3.6 (in progress)

5 Preparation of the methodology Task 3.4 Task 3.5 Results from the ELIPTIC Scenarios Results from the SWOT analysis Scientific and grey literature Past Experience (EBSF, Saferbrain, )

6 Task 3.4 Results from the ELIPTIC Scenarios KPIs ELIPTIC scenario measured either small improvements or no variations in the performance they were associated to For ex. Improvements in the fields of capacity or pax demand ( A7 Oberhausen, A11 Szeged) No performance variation means that ELIPTIC innovations worked well and did not generate problems or delays during the demonstration activities, thus stressing their prospective, smooth, full introduction in the regular service

7 Preparation of the methodology Still ics.com/jfe/form/sv_2aze OQn0FBFMYx7 Divided into 2 parts: a) General introduction b) Technology concept section At least 2 Technology concepts to be choosen among: Pillar A - Progressive replacement of conventional buses with hybrid trolleybuses Pillar A- Opportunity (re)charging of electric buses Pillar B - Upgrading and/or regenerating electric PT systems, via energy recuperation and or management Pillar C - Multipurpose use of electric PT infrastructure

8 Preparation of the methodology Divided into 2 parts: a) General introduction

9 Preparation of the methodology Divided into 2 parts: a) General introduction Sample Questions on General Attitude towards the Electric Technology

10 Preparation of the methodology Divided into 2 parts: b)technology concept section includes: a short reminder of what has been done in the ELIPTIC use cases where that technological concept was applied/studied requests to : state the priority which will theoretically prompt the transfer to the target city, by ticking on one among the following options: a. productivity of the service, b. customer care, c. environmental reasons, d. quality of the service

11 Preparation of the methodology Divided into 2 parts: b)technology concept section includes: 2) rate a series of pros and cons associated to that technological concept in case of its transfer to the target city, by ticking on the most appropriate statement, as provided; pros and cons were associated to the following evaluation categories: operations, economy, energy, environment, people and technology

12 Preparation of the methodology Divided into 2 parts: b)technology concept section includes: 3) rate how much it is likely to theoretically transfer that technological concept according to some KPIs prospective results, again by ticking on the most appropriate statement.

13 Preparation of the methodology Open to innovate = change, ELIPTIC Scenarios Very likely to keep the status quo = no change, NO ELIPTIC

14 Preparation of the methodology WEIGHT Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) method for determining the weights for each respondent and for the group of respondents Weighting and assessing ASSESS ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalit e (Elimination and Choice Expressing Reality (ELECTRE) method to approach Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis

15 Development of the Exercise Preliminary, slightly shorter session Dec Jan Target: NON ELIPTIC Experts Full session Feb 2018, ongoing Target: NON & ELIPTIC Experts (UF Members)

16 58 respondents involved, worldwide Focus on the Technology concept: Pillar A - Progressive replacement of conventional buses (CB) with hybrid trolleybuses (HT)

17 1- Attitude towards the Electric Technology: Available options ET is viable in general ET contributes to the environmental safeguard The community asks for more ET-based transit options ET contributes to reduce costs Operations benefit from ET ET helps operators manage the energy requirements in a more balanced way

18 TRANSFERABILITY EXERCISE Analysis of preliminary results 1- Attitude towards the Electric Technology ELIPTIC NO ELIPTIC/ STATUSQUO ACADEMICIANS PT OPERATORS EXPERTS PT USERS

19 TRANSFERABILITY EXERCISE Analysis of preliminary results EXPERTS 2- PRIORITY WHICH LEADS TO TRANSFER ACADEMICIANS PT USERS

20 Analysis of preliminary results 13% 2- PRIORITY WHICH LEADS TO TRANSFER Weight Attribution (Cadiz, Spain) 25% 25% 12% 25% customer care energy efficiency productivity of the service quality of the service environmental conditions Weight Attribution (Pilsen, CZ) 22% 19% 19% 24% 16% customer care energy efficiency productivity of the service quality of the service environmental conditions PT OPERATORS Weight Attribution (Reykjavik, Iceland) Weight Attribution (Copenhagen, DK) customer care Weight Attribution (Rome, Italy) customer care 20% 19% 21% 21% 19% customer care energy efficiency productivity of the service quality of the service environmental conditions 25% 50% 0% 25% energy efficiency productivity of the service quality of the service environmental conditions 3% 17% 33% 30% 17% energy efficiency productivity of the service quality of the service environmental conditions

21 Transport Operators

22 Transport Operators 3- KEY DRIVERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES

23 Transport Operators 3- ACTUAL BARRIERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES

24 Transport Operators 3- ACTUAL BARRIERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES The most important factor is price for 1 vkm. Of course, bidder can propose performance of services with electric vehicles, but would have no chance to beat bidders with diesel buses, because of, not only the price of e-bus, but also costs of infrastructure. KZK GOP, Katowice

25 Transport Operators 3- ACTUAL BARRIERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES Trolleybuses and hybrid trolleybuses are no on the agenda for Movia as there is not an interest from local authorities to invest in a catenary based bus transport system as the local authorities do not like catenaries in the cities. Movia Trafik, Copenhagen We will never have trolley buses with energy from overhead lines. There are no overhead lines in Reykjavik greater area and also the number of inhabitants will never at least for next 50 years bear such an investment as light rails or trolleybus. Stræto bs, Reykjavik

26 Transport Operators Compulsory to follow green/electric policies Top "Neutral" Counts 2 Top I don t know" Counts Wiring is a constraint 2 Size of batteries limits passenger capacity 2 Demo projects 2 Less noisy means less safe for pedestrians

27 Transport Operators Performance role (KPIs variations) From the results obtained from the aggregated analysis of all transport operators, all of them have given positive feedbacks in all KPIs, that is they are willing to transfer HT given an improvement of up to 5% or even with no improvement. However, only one respondent has answered No, even with an improvement of the associated performance up to 5% regarding the vehicle capital costs.

28 Experts 3- TOP 15 KEY DRIVERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES

29 Experts 3- TOP 15 KEY BARRIERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES

30 Experts Performance role (KPIs variations) Most of the experts believe that ELIPTIC HTs should be implemented, especially when there would be increase in the passenger demand and durability of the vehicles. These two KPIs are considered significant in implementing such technology since the lifetime of a vehicle would define if the electric technology is worth to be transferred, which also affects the decisions on the investments. On the other hand, even if there is a growth or no in the passenger demand, the hybrid- trolleybuses are still worth to be implemented. However, a decrease in passenger demand would be unacceptable.

31 Academicians 3- TOP 15 KEY DRIVERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES

32 Academicians 3- TOP 15 KEY BARRIERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES

33 Academicians Performance role (KPIs variations) Most of the most of the respondents agreed to adopt such technology both with and without improvements. High scores are obtained by: Bus reliability i.e. vehicles arrive on time (Operations); Noise exposure (Environment); Emissions (Environment); Attractiveness (People); and, Usage of clean vehicles (Energy). Thus, with or without improvement, adopting such technology would be worth it to safeguard the environment whilst having quality, attractive, and environmental friendly services..

34 End Users 3- TOP 15 KEY DRIVERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES

35 End Users 3- TOP 15 KEY BARRIERS TO TRANSFER HYBRID TROLLEYBUSES AND REPLACE CONVENTIONAL BUSES

36 End Users Performance role (KPIs variations) Mixed feelings. Some users are not supposing any improvement in regularity and service coverage given that there would be an increase in dwell time due to charging and schedule adjustments. Meanwhile, for the economy, costs are also not expected to raise, whereas an increase in the demand of the electric vehicles for public transportation is to be expected.

37 To summarize.

38 To summarize. Data collection on the ELIPTIC User Forum members session is going to end Data will be compared with the findings of the preliminary session and all duly reported in Del. 3.6

39 Thank you very much! Questions?