Trends & Challenges in c-si PV - an update of the ITRPV 9 th edition (incl. maturity report)

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1 Trends & Challenges in c-si PV - an update of the ITRPV 9 th edition (incl. maturity report) World Solar Congress Shanghai, September 4, 218 Dr. Markus Fischer, Hanwha Q Cells, VP R&D Operation Source: VDMA Author Page 1 September 4th 218

2 Outline Today s PV Industry market expectations and learning curve status ITRPV Some Results & Updates incl. maturity Report - Materials and Processes - Products and Systems PV installations outlook and PV production capacity requirements Summary VDMA Author Page 2 September 4th 218

3 Outline Today s PV Industry market expectations and learning curve status ITRPV Some Results & Updates incl. maturity Report - Materials and Processes - Products and Systems PV installations outlook and PV production capacity requirements Summary VDMA Author Page 3 September 4th 218

4 PV learning curve Learning curve for module price as a function of cumulative shipments Shipments /avg. price at years end: average module sales price [US$ [217/Wp] historic data costly complexity efficency gain only roadmap outlook Potenz (historic data) ITRPV / GWp cumulative PV module shipments [MW] 216: 76 GWp /.37 US$/Wp 217: 15 GWp /.34 US$/Wp 218: GWp /.2(mc)..3(mono) US$/Wp fast shift to mono-si influences avg. prices Efficiency learning stays in focus 217 o/a shipment: 414 GWp GWp Production capacity: end of 217: end of 218: 12GWp 16GWp? VDMA Author Page 4 September 4th 218

5 Price consideration again an overheated market Spot Pricing [USD/Wp] 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,,8,6,4,2, Module 25% Module 37% Module 5% Cell 2% Wafer Cell 22% 29% Wafer Poly Si 26% Cell 22% 18% Wafer 9% Poly Si Poly Si 23% 19% share 1_211 share 12_217 share 8_218 Module price (US$/Wp) 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,8,6,4, $,4,32,46,41.95 $,45 Module price break down [US$/Wp].74 $.58 $.37 $ Module,35,24.34 $,23.31 $,15,14,14,13,12,11,9,16,13,8,13,15,6,6,7,9,7,9,3,6,2,8,5,5 1_211 12_211 12_212 1_216 1_217 12_217 6_218 8_218 Cell Wafer Poly Si.25 $ Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module reduction 1/211 12/211: 38% reduction 12/211 12/212: 23% reduction 1/216 1/217: 32% 5/31 announcement: Module prices decreased significantly! mc-si-wafer share is expected to fall faster reduction 6/218 8/218: 2% Cost pressure increased tremendously VDMA Author Page 5 September 4th 218

Outlook: detailed view at PV today and in future average module sales price [US$ 217/Wp] average module sales price [US$ [217/Wp] Learning curve: exiting times are ahead 1 1 1 1 1 historic data

6 Outlook: detailed view at PV today and in future average module sales price [US$ 217/Wp] average module sales price [US$ [217/Wp] Learning curve: exiting times are ahead historic data costly complexity efficency gain only historic data roadmap outlook costly complexity Potenz (historic data) efficency gain only roadmap outlook ITRPV ITRPV ,E+4 cumulative 1,E+5 PV module shipments 1,E+6 [MW] cumulative PV module shipments [MW] ITRPV finding: Wp and per piece : Wp learning ~ 6.1% per piece learning ~ 24.7% : LR= 22.8% : LR= 39.1% will continue! Expectation 218: shipments 9 + GWp expected o/a 5 + GWp dramatic price high volume Cope with this challenges: keen competition between: p-type/n-type; mono-si/mc-si accelerate implementation of cost reductions VDMA Author Page 6 September 4th 218

7 Outline Today s PV Industry market expectations and learning curve status ITRPV Some Results & Updates incl. maturity Report - Materials and Processes - Products and Systems PV installations outlook and PV production capacity requirements Summary VDMA Author Page 7 September 4th 218

Australia, Europe, and US SILICON CRYSTAL.

Chairs EU Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US

solution is not known Parameters in main

8 ITRPV Methodology Working group today includes 55 contributors from Asia, Australia, Europe, and US SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM Participating companies Independent data collection / processing by VDMA Photovoltaic Equipment Grey Yellow Red purple Review of data Preparation of publication regional chairs Chairs EU Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US VDMA Author Page 8 September 4th 218 Working group today includes 4 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US Next ITRPV edition Industrial solution exists, and is being optimized in production Industrial solution is known but not yet in mass production Interim solution is known, but too expensive or not suitable for production Industrial solution is not known Parameters in main areas are discussed Diagrams of median values, Update includes maturity marking for 17 parameters; download

9 Wafer: Materials - poly-si utilization and wafer thickness Trend: DWS enables tremendous progress poly Si utilization: standard wafer 1g - slurry based wafering: 19g - DWS 16g 13g are possible (yellow) fast progress possible (grey) development is needed to follow roadmap (red) slurry wafering will disappear! 2 [µm] Kerf loss for slurry-based wire sawing Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing [gram] mc-si / slurry based mono-si / slurry based mc-si / diamond wire based mono-si / diamond wire based mc-si, slurry based mc-si, diamond wire based mono-si, slurry based mono-si, diamond wire based [µm] Kerf loss for slurry based wire sawing TTV for slurry based wire sawing Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing TTV for diamond wire sawing Limit of cell thickness in future module technology Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono limit of cell thickness in future modul technology VDMA Author Page 9 September 4th 218

10 Cell: Processes front side metallization trends Trend: remaining silver 12 Trend: number of bus bars 1% Amount of silver per cell [mg/cell] August 218: 478 US$/kg.91 $cent/ Wp* assumption: 19.8% x.985 (CTM) 4.72W/ cell * 21.4 t / GWp 214 = 7.5 % of world Silver market 217** 218 consumption: 19.3 t / GWp Silver reduction will continue Measures: - reduction of finger width more bus bars - 3 BB will disappear 5 BB = mainstream today - Single print will remain mainstream * avg. module power 28W labeled ** Assumption 29,t / 118 MOz 217 market ) Trend: finger width and alignment VDMA Author Page 1 September 4th 218 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % busbars 4 busbars 5 busbars 6 and more busbars busbarless [µm] Finger width Alignment precision Finger width Alignment precision

11 Cell: Processes recombination current densities Trend: keen competition p-type/n-type faster progress in p-type Jfron/rear possible as solutions are known (grey/yellow) J rear/front in n-type HJT on good level, to follow roadmap development is needed (red) J bulk; n leads; p has improvement potential (grey) for <5fA/cm² require development (yellow/red) J bulk mc-si needs more efforts to improve; but cost is still advantageous Recombination current [fa/cm 2 ] J front p-type material J rear p-type material J front/rear n-type mono all Recombination current [fa/cm 2 ] J bulk p-type multi J bulk p-type mono J bulk n-type mono J front p-type material J rear p-type material J rear n-type mono back contact J front n-type mono SHJ or back contact & rear SHJ J bulk p-type multi J bulk p-type mono J bulk n-type mono VDMA Author Page 11 September 4th 218

12 Cell: Processes tool throughput trend Trend: tool throughput increase + synchronization of frontend/backend [Wafer/h] chemical & thermal processes, progressive scenario metallization and classification processes, progressive scenario Wet processing is leading the throughput will remain c-si PV production clock-pulse generator Throughput of all tool groups will continue to increase Metallization and test: to increase throughput 5 wf/h in 218 solutions exist for 7 wf/h (yellow) 8 wf/h in chemical processes, progessive scenario thermal processes, progressive scenario metallisation & classification processes, progressive scenario Progressive scenario will be benchmark Tools for new expansions are ready VDMA Author Page 12 September 4th 218

13 Cell: Products share of cell concepts / efficiency trend Trend: market share of cell concepts 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % IHS Markit data IHS BSF PERC/PERL/PERT Si-heterojunction (SHJ) back contact cells Si-based tandem 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Si-tandem only n-type with HJT / IBC show higher efficiency stabilized cell efficiency 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 2% 218: 22.7 / 23.9 back contact cells n-type mono-si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-si PERC, PERT or PERL cells n-type mono-si back contact cells n-type mono-si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-si PERC, PERT or PERL cells n-type mono-si stabilized cell efficiency 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 2% 19% 18% 17% PERC/PERT cells p-type mono PERC/PERT cells p-type mc-si BSF cells p-type mc-si PERC/PERT cells p-type mc-si BSF cells p-type mono-si PERC/PERT cells p-type mono-si VDMA Author Page 13 September 4th 218 BSF cells p-type mono-si BSF cells p-type mc-si p-type PERC will continue market dominance PERC is perfect also for bifacial! mono / mc PERC mono/mc-si 21.6 % / 2% in % / 21.5 in 225 BSF share will faster shrink after 5/31 n-type for green field: HJ: slow increasing share n-type for green field and upgrades: TOPCon better rear passivation, but B diffusion is required Si tandem: development starts

14 Module: Products module performance Trend: performance warranty / degradation Trend: ARC life time 25 warranty [years] Initial degardation after 1st year of operation Warranty for annual performance degradation Performance warranty [years] Product warranty [years] Initial degrsdation after 1st year of operation [%] Warranty for annual performance degradation [%] LID / LeTID Performance warranty 3,5% 3,% 2,5% 2,% 1,5% 1,%,5%,% degradation [%] under control (yellow) not yet fully ready (red) [years] degradation: Initial / linear/year 217: 2.5 % /.68% 22+: 2. % /.6% 225: 2. % /.5% Product warranty will remain 1 years Performance warranty 222+: 3 years ARC life time will be increased 1 y >2y VDMA Author Page 14 September 4th 218

15 LCOE Calculations For Different Insolation Conditions 8% Debt with 18 year tenor. 2-year straight line depreciation and 25 year analysis period. 4% nominal debt and 5% nominal equity discount rates with 2% inflation. Nominal LCOE (U.S. Dollar Cents per kwh) PV systems LCOE $,75 7,21 4,81 3,59 2,88 $,68 6,52 4,35 3,25 $,63 6,1 4,2 3,4 $,58 5,61 5,22 3,69 3,48 2,79 2,49 2,44 2,24 $,54 2,6 $,5 4,71 3,22 2,4 2,9 1, kwh(ac)/kw(dc) 15 kwh(ac)/kw(dc) 2 kwh(ac)/kw(dc) 25 kwh(ac)/kw(dc) Assumed System Price ($/W(DC)) * 2.3 $ct/kwh bid for 3MW in Saudi Arabia 219: $,8 $,7 $,6 $,5 $,4 $,3 $,2 $,1 $, Assumed System Price ($/W(DC)) System prices: 217: 75 $ / kwp 228: <5 $ / kwp LCoE 217: 2.9** * $ct/kwh (GER avg. 1/ $ct**) 228: $ct/kwh are realistic System live times 25 years are assumed Next steps to further reduce LCoE: extended service live to 3 years (supported by performance warranty trend) further efficiency improvements + module & mounting cost down measures ** 5.6 $ct/kwh (4.9 ct) avg. bid 217 in Germany (12 kwh/kwp) VDMA Author Page 15 September 4th 218

PV systems LCOE of utility scale power generation Comparizion: LCOE of different new generation sources in US energy market 218: Solar PV LCOE are below the LCOE of coal Source: The

16 PV systems LCOE of utility scale power generation Comparizion: LCOE of different new generation sources in US energy market 218: Solar PV LCOE are below the LCOE of coal Source: The role of Silver in the Green Revolution The Silver Institute July 218: Source: IRENA Rethinking Energy 217 VDMA Author Page 16 September 4th 218

17 Outline Today s PV Industry market expectations and learning curve status ITRPV Some Results & Updates incl. maturity Report - Materials and Processes - Products and Systems PV installations outlook and PV production capacity requirements Summary VDMA Author Page 17 September 4th 218

Outlook - PV today and in future A brief look in the

>18 years Logistic growth approach data base 1894: NN tt

18 Outlook - PV today and in future A brief look in the history: development of railway grid enhancements for >18 years Logistic growth approach data base 1894: NN tt = GG 11 + ee kk(cc tt) logistic growth approx. G = 1.5 Mio. km k =.8; c = 1895 Railway net length [1 km] logistic growth approx. historic data PV historic data Shipments [GWp] VDMA Author Page 18 September 4th 218

19 Outlook - PV today and in future Different calculated scenarios are considered in 9 th edition Example: mixed scenario mix: 23 TWp/ 3 PWh (++ prim. en.) peak: 9 GWp / 235 max: 7 GW/year in 23 Shipments 217 were ahead of all approaches! 218 shipments are expected to follow trend VDMA Author Page 19 September 4th 218

20 Outlook - PV today and in future Different calculated scenarios are considered in 9 th edition Example: mixed scenario mix: 23 TWp/ 3 PWh (++ prim. en.) peak: 9 GWp / 235 max: 7 GW/year in annual market was ahead of all approaches! 218 annual market is expected to slow down VDMA Author Page 2 September 4th 218

21 Outline Today s PV Industry market expectations and learning curve status ITRPV Some Results & Updates incl. maturity Report - Materials and Processes - Products and Systems PV installations outlook and PV production capacity requirements Summary VDMA Author Page 21 September 4th 218

22 Summary Flash light on PV market and c-si price trend Update of ITRPV maturity report shows: faster implementation of improvments Silicon PV will remain dominating but will stay very volatile Competition mono/mc-si strong impetus for mono Exciting competition between p-type PERC and n-type cell concepts is ahead Success requires innovation and increasing flexibility ITRPV shows technical trends and describes possible paths to meet the challenges VDMA Author Page 22 September 4th 218

23 Thank you Thank you for your attention! Visit us at VDMA Author Page 23 September 4th 218

ITRPV 8 th edition report release and key findings

ITRPV 8 th edition report release and key findings ITRPV 8 th edition 217 - report release and key findings PV CellTech Conference, March 15 217 Penang, Malaysia Source: www.siemens.com/presse VDMA Author Page 1 15 March 217 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction