ITRPV 8 th edition report release and key findings

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ITRPV 8 th edition 217 - report release and key findings PV CellTech Conference, March

1 ITRPV 8 th edition report release and key findings PV CellTech Conference, March Penang, Malaysia Source: VDMA Author Page 1 15 March 217

2 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV Results Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Author Page 2 15 March 217

3 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV Results Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Author Page 3 15 March 217

data Preparation of publication regional chairs Next ITRPV edition Chairs EU Chairs PRC Chairs TW

4 ITRPV Methodology Working group today includes 4 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM Participating companies Independent data collection / processing by VDMA Review of data Preparation of publication regional chairs Next ITRPV edition Chairs EU Chairs PRC Chairs TW Photovoltaic Equipment Chairs US Parameters in main areas are discussed Diagrams of median values VDMA Author Page 4 15 March 217

5 ITRPV - eighth edition 217 some statistics Review ITRPV predictions Silver amount per cell silver per cell [g/cell] Review ITRPV predictions 1. Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition Wafer thickness (multi) µm,45,4,35,3,25,2,15,1, Contributors: 4 (33) Figures: 6 (5) Materials: 14 (14) Processes: 18 (14) Products: 12 (11) PV systems: 7 (6) Prediction quality since 29: Silver consumption trend well predicted and realized (Silver availability depends on world market) Wafer thickness trend bad predicted and no progress (Poly-Si depends on PV market development) Edition 2. Edition 3. Edition 4. Edition 5. Edition 6. Edition 7. Edition 8. Edition Author VDMA Page 5 15 March 217

6 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV Results Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Author Page 6 15 March 217

passed! 211 212 12 / 216 3GWp LR 21.5% (1976.

7 PV learning Curve Shipments /avg. price at years end: 216: 75 GWp /.37 US$/Wp o/a shipment: o/a installation: 38 GWp 3 GWp 3 GWp landmark was passed! / 216 3GWp LR 21.5% ( ) dramatic price drop due to market situation Comparable to 211/212, but faster VDMA Author Page 7 15 March 217

8 Module price break down [US$/Wp] Cost consideration Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments Spot Pricing [USD/Wp] 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1, Module 25% Module 42% Cell Wafer 29% Poly Si 26% Cell 23% Wafer 23% Poly Si 12% Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module Module 37% Cell 23% Wafer 16% Poly Si 24% share 1_211 share 1_216 share 1_217 Module price (US$/Wp) 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,8,6,4, US$,395,32,462, US$ reduction 1/211 1/216: 64 % reduction 1/216 1/217: 36 % (reduction 1/211 1/212: 4 %) Dramatic price drop during 2 nd half of 216 Market driven drop,24 Module Poly-Si share increased again Cell Wafer Poly Si.37 US$,135,138,13,86,58,72,87 1_211 1_216 1_217 High pressure on module manufacturers VDMA Author Page 8 15 March 217

9 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV Results Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Author Page 9 15 March 217

10 Silicon Materials: Poly Si Feedstock Technology Trend: Share of poly-si feedstock technology Silicon feedstock technology World market share [%] FBR Poly Si price trend: E 212: 2 US$/kg 2/ 216: 14 US$/kg 2/ 217: 16 US$/kg oversupply situation of 216 relieved 6% % Siemens IHS Markit data 86% IHS 216 Siemens FBR other Siemens process will remain mainstream FBR shows potential for cost reduction FBR share will be increased moderately w/ new capacity (216 values in line w/ IHS Markit) Other technologies (umg, epi growth,..) Not yet mature but available VDMA Author Page 1 15 March 217 Author: ITRPV 216 Pa 3/

11 Wafer Processes: wafering technology (1) Trend: Kerf loss / TTV Trend: throughput crystallization/ wafering [µm] Kerf loss for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] TTV for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing [µm] TTV for diamond wire sawing [µm] diamond wire sawing advantage: enable faster kerf reduction No big change in thickness variation is expected Throughput increase in crystallization/wafering will continue [kg] crystal growth per tool (mc-si, mono-like, HPM) relative troughput CCz[kg/h]/Cz(kg/h] Gen 6 slurry based wire sawing diamond wire based mc-si Gen 7 mono-si Gen 8 VDMA Author Page March 217

12 Wafer Processes: wafering technology (2) Trend: wafering technology for mono-si Trend: wafering technology for mc-si 6% 6% % slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds other diamond wire wafering: now mono mainstream Electroplated diamond wire is mostly used % slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds other Slurry based wafering will not stay mainstream forever change to diamond wire is ongoing main challenge: texturing VDMA Author Page March 217

13 Wafer Processes: texturing of mc-si wafers Trend: market share of mc-si texturing technologies 6% Acidic texturing is: mature and high throughput process changes in standard will apear Next step: wet nano texturing, esp. for diamond wire RIE share is expected to increase but no cost efficient alternative % standard acidic etching Wet Nano-texture technology Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) Wet processing remains mainstream in mc-si texturing VDMA Author Page March 217

14 Wafer Product: thickness trend [µm] Trend: wafer thickness for mc-si and mon Si wafers Still no progress in mc-si thickness reduction Waferthickness [µm] st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th ITRPV Edition 18µm = preferred thickness since Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono limit of cell thickness in future modul technology Mono wafer: thickness reduction starts Thickness reduction is expected to start for Mono cost reduction potential diamond wire will support New module technologies enable further thickness reduction VDMA Author Page March 217

15 Wafer Product: market share of material types Trend: share of c-si material types 6% % Author mono multi IHS Markit data IHS 216 casted-si domination is not for ever: Trend of last years will continue Casting technology: HP mc-si will replace standardmc-si no come back of mono-like expected Mono technology: n-type material share will increase n- + p-type market share today 35% (216 values are in line w/ IHS Markit) p-type mc p-type HPmc p-type monolike p-type mono n-type mono p-type material is expected to stay dominant mainly due to progress in stabilization Casted material is still dominating today with >6% Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type) VDMA Page March 217

16 Wafer market share of wafer dimensions (new) 6% Trend: wafer dimension mono-si Trend: wafer dimension mc-si 6% % % * mm² * mm² * mm² * mm² * mm² * mm² Fast switch to new format: New mainstream: x mm² Larger formats are upcoming Transition to new format in 217 Expected new mainstream: x mm² Larger formats may occur after 22 VDMA Author Page March 217

17 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV Results Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Author Page March 217

18 Cell Materials: Silver (Ag) per cell 12 Trend: remaining Ag per cell 156x156mm² good predictions, Ag reduction continues Remaining Silver / Cell [mg] 4 3 Amount of silver per cell [mg/cell] : 1mg 21 t / 19.6% 548 $/kg 1.1 $cent/ Wp* * avg. cell efficiency 19.6 % 4.8 Wp/cell nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 29 3 mg mg reached mg expected Ag accounts in 216 for 7% of cell conversion price Ag reduction is mandatory and continues delays again substitution by Cu or other material Ag will stay main metallization in c-si technology No break through for lead free pastes so far Market introduction depends on performance VDMA Author Page March 217

19 Cell Processes: cell production tool throughputs Trend: tool throughput increase + synchronization of frontend/backend Wet benches are leading w/ >78 wf/h by today Throughput increase continues [Wafer/h] Challenge: increase throughput + Improve OEE Two throughput scenarios: Progressive = new high throughput tool chemical processes, progessive scenario chemical processes, evolutional scenario themal processes, progressive scenario thermal processes, evolutional scenario metallisation & classification processes, progressive scenario metallisation & classification processes, evolutional scenario Evolutionary = continuous improvement of existing tools (debottlenecking, upgrades ) VDMA Author Page March 217

20 Cell Processes: in line monitoring in cell production (new) Trend: in-line process control backend/test Trend: in-line process control frontend 6% % automatc optical inspection (AOI) after front/back silver & back Aluminum print electroluminescence (EL) imaging infrared (IR) imaging for hotspot detection AOI is widely used in printing 216: Inspection at cell testing: EL use will expand (currently 5% only) IR inspection is not widely used 6% % optical quality control after antireflectioncoation (AR) coating incomming wafer inspection sheet resistance measurement after diffusion SiNx quality control has constant share Incoming wafer inspection will exceed after 221 Rs in-line control will be more widely used VDMA Author Page 2 15 March 217

21 Cell processes: c-si metallization technologies Trend: front side metallization technologies Trend: rear side metallization technologies World market share [%] 6% World market share [%] 6% % screen printing stencil printing direct plating on Si plating on seed layer Screen printing remains main stream metallization technology Plating is expected for rear and front side For rear side PVD methods may appear % sctreen printing plating PVD (evaporation/sputtering) VDMA Author Page March 217

22 Cell processes: finger width / number of bus bars / bifaciality Trend: Finger width / alignment precision [µm] Trend: number of bus bars (BB) 6% 2 1 % 3 busbars 4 busbars 5 busbars busbarless Trend: market share of bifacial cells Finger width Alignment precision Front side grid finger width reduction continues 216: <5µm reached! Enables reduction of BBs + Ag reduction 4BB are mainstream 3 BB will disappear Alignment precision will improve to sig. Selective emitters + Bifacial cells require good alignment Bifacial cells will increase market share 6% % monofacial cells monofacial c-si bifacial c-si VDMA Author Page March 217

23 Cell processes: recombination current densities Trend: J bulk, J front, J rear Recombination current [fa/cm 2 ] J bulk : will be further reduced by optimizing crystallization p-type mc-si: fa/cm² further reductions will appear: p-type mc-si: fa/cm² p-type mono-si: fa/cm² n-type mono-si: 25 = fa/cm² J front / J rear Further reductions by > to < 5 fa/cm² J bulk p-type multi J bulk p-type mono J front p-type material J rear p-type material p-type improvements are limited at the front side J bulk n-type mono SHJ or back contact J front/rear n-type mono SHJ or back contact (i.e. need of improved diffusion / new pastes) Wide use of rear side passivation concepts p- type: reducing recombination losses is on a good way n-type: overcomes p-type bulk material limitations VDMA Author Page March 217

24 Cell processes: emitter formation for low J front Trend: emitter sheet resistance Trend: emitter formation technologies Ohms / square Essential parameter for Jfront 95 1 Ω/ are standard today Increase to 135 Ω/ is predicted Challenge for tools and front pastes 6% % homogenous emitter by gas phase diffusion selective emitter by laser doping selective emitter by etch back homogenous emitter by ion implantation selective emitter by ion implantation Mainstream: homogenous gas-phase diffusion selective doping: etch back or laser doping Ion implant stays niche VDMA Author Page March 217

25 Cell processes: technology for low J rear Trend: rear side passivation technologies ITRPV prediction for J rear were good: 6% % PECVD AlOx + capping layer ALD AlOx + capping layer PECVD SiONx Rear side passivation is mandatory for PERC PECVD AlOx will stay mainstream ALD will hold up to 1 % SiONx will disapear fa/cm² BSF cannot deliver required low J rear PERC takes over competing technologies in PERC PECVD Al2O3 + capping Al2O3 ALD + capping PECVD SiONx/SiNy etc. VDMA Author Page March 217

26 Cell Products: cell technologies / cell efficiency trends 6% Trend: market share of cell concepts 216: PERC 15% (in line w/ IHS Markit) other Si-tandem PERC BSF IHS Markit data % IHS 216 BSF PERC/PERL/PERT Si-herterojunction (SHJ) back contact cells Si-based tandem PERC is gaining market share ( 217) BSF share is shrinking Back contact + HJ: slow increasing share Si tandem: under development Trend: stabilized cell efficiencies; p-type PERC outperforms stabilized cell efficiency 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% BSF cells p-type mc-si PERC/PERT cells p-type mc-si PERC, PERT or PERL cells n-type mono-si back contact cells n-type mono-si BSF cells p-type mono-si PERC/PERT cells p-type mono-si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-si PERC p-type mono PERC will reach n-type performance mc-si PERC is about to outperform mono BSF n-type IBC + HJ for highest efficiency applications stabilized >21% p-type mono PERC is in production VDMA Author Page March 217

27 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP Results Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Author Page March 217

28 Module Materials: front cover material Trend: market share of front cover material Trend: lifetime of AR coating % [years] 2 15 % non-structured & non-coated front glass AR-coated front glass deeply structured front glass 1 5 AR coated glass is mainstream: AR coating lifetime 1 years today will increase to 25 years VDMA Author Page March 217

29 Module Processes: interconnection technology Trend: cell interconnection technology Trend: cell connection material 6% 6% % lead-containing soldering lead-free soldering conductive adhesive Expanding share: share of lead free soldering + conductive adhesives % Cu-ribbon Cu-wires structured foils shingled/overlapping cell Cu will remain most used cell connection material VDMA Author Page March 217

30 Module Products: module power outlook 14% 13% 12% 11% 99% 98% Trend: cell to module power ratio (CTM) Trend: module power of 6 cell (156x156mm²) Module Power [Wp] % 27 96% 95% acidic textured multi-si alcaline textured mono-si CTM will increase Acidic texturing has still higher CTM 25 BSF p-type mc-si PERC/PERT p-type mc-si PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-si back contact cells n-type mono-si 6 cell modules 217: Mono p-type PERC: 35 W are standard Multi p-type PERC: 285 W are common BSF p-type mono-si PERC/PERT p-type mono-si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) n-type mono-si VDMA Author Page 3 15 March 217

31 Module Products: framed modules and J-Boxes Trend: share of frameless c-si modules Trend: share of smart J-Boxes 6% 6% % framed frameless % standard J-Box without additional function microinverter (DC/AC) DC/DC converter 6% Al-frames will stay mainstream frameless for niche markets Standard J-Box remains mainstream Smart J-Boxes for niche applications % Aluminum Plastic other VDMA Author Page March 217

32 Module Products: module size Trend: share of cell dimensions Trend: share of module size (full cell) 6% 6% % full cell half cell quarter cell % 6-cell 72-cell 96-cell other Full cell will remain main stream half cell implementation started! quarter cells currently a niche Big is beautiful: 72 cells share will increase 6 cell modules mainstream until 22 Special formats for niche markets VDMA Author Page March 217

33 Module Products: module reliability (new) Trend: warranty conditions and degradation for c-si modules warranty [years] ,5% 3,% 2,5% 2,% 1,5% 1,%,5% degradation [%] degradation: Initial / linear/year 216: 3. % /.7% 217: 2.5 % /.68% 219+: 2. % /.68% 221+: 2. % /.6% Product warranty will remain 1 years Performance warranty 224+: 3 years,% Performance waranty [years] Product waranty [years] Initial degardation after 1st year of operation [%] Degradation per year during performance waranty [%] VDMA Author Page March 217

34 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP Results Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Author Page March 217

35 Systems Balance of system (BOS) for power plants Trend: BOS in Europe and US Trend: BOS in Asia 1,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 12% 12% 13% 8% 55% 87% 11% 11% 12% 7% 45% 75% 11% 11% 64% 58% 9% 11% 9% 8% 7% 8% 6% 8% 5% 5% 36% 33% 31% 29% 6% 15% 13% 6% 8% 59% 94% 15% 13% 6% 7% 53% 84% 81% 77% 15% 15% 15% 12% 11% 12% 5% 11% 5% 11% 7% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 45% 43% 38% Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground % Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground Module remains most expensive element Cost in Asia are assumed to be significant lower VDMA Author Page March 217

36 Systems Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCoE) Trend: LCoE progress a minimum approach LCOE [USD/kWh],12,1,8,6,4,2, 97,77,51,39 911,8,73,49,37 814,8,65 785,7,63,43,42,33,32 746,9,59,39,3 679,54,36,27 1 kwh/kwp 15 kwh/kwp 2 kwh/kwp assumed system price LCoE depends strongly on local conditions ~5.7 US$ct/kWh lowest auction bidder in GER 216** (avg. 7.7$ct) ~2.42 US$ct/kWh possible near Abu Dhabi* today * ** Assumed system price [USD/KWp] System prices: 216: 97 $ / kwp 227: <68 $ / kwp LCoE 216: $ct/kwh (GER avg. 7.7 $ct**) 227: $ct/kwh are ralistic System live times 25 years are assumed Next steps to further reduce LCoE: extended service live to 3 years (supported by performance warranty trend) further efficiency improvements + cost down measures VDMA Author Page March 217

37 Outline 1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP Results Si / Wafer - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Systems 4. Summary and Outlook VDMA Author Page March 217

Outlook: in detail view at PV learning curve 1976-216: LR= 22.5% 26-216: LR= 39.

driven) conclusion: Learning was and will be always a combination of efficiency increase + continues cost reduction per piece = cost

38 Outlook: in detail view at PV learning curve : LR= 22.5% : LR= 39.% ITRPV finding: Wp and per piece learning analysis revealed: Wp learning ~ 7% (continually) per piece learning ~26% (market driven) conclusion: Learning was and will be always a combination of efficiency increase + continues cost reduction per piece = cost reduction of PV generated electricity Wp increase w/o cost increases /Wp But how will PV proceed in future? Approach: logistic growth exemplified by nature: VDMA Author Page March 217

being in flower plant hight [cm] 7 6 5 start fertilizing 4 3 Tombolino singulation 2 shooting 1 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 days after seeding

39 Spreading of PV like a plants life: hit and hurt an Experiment PV experiment: Investigation of the growth of a Tomato plant (German product, Tombolino *) watching milestones in a tomato plant s live = growth of a Tomato (Tombolino) + ( ) developing fruits being in flower plant hight [cm] start fertilizing 4 3 Tombolino singulation 2 shooting days after seeding Parameter set: G = 1.12 m k =.7; c = 67 d * Plant grown on my balcony in Thalheim April July 216 VDMA Author: ITRPV 216 Page 23 1/26/216

40 Spreading of PV like a plants life: hit and hurt an Experiment PV experiment: Investigation of the growth of a Tomato plant (German product, Tombolino *) PV is starting = growth of a Tomato (Tombolino) + () developing fruits Parameter set: G = 1.12 m k =.7; c = 67 d Aproximation being in flower plant hight [cm] shooting 1 singulation start fertilizing Tombolino PV is at the beginning ITRPV industry outlook: future PV Installation and future PV production requirements days after seeding * Plant grown on my balcony in Thalheim April July 216 VDMA Author: ITRPV 216 Page 23 1/26/216

41 PV market trend until 25: logistic growth Global Installations [GWp] Approach: 3 cases for 19 different countries in 4 regions Asia / America / Africa / EU 25 ITRPV finding: 2 - Shipments until 216: slightly above all scenarios 15 - Yearly PV market: 335 GWp. 6 GWp Current technology may run all scenarios 1 Replacement rate = key to overcome down cycles Indonesia Mexico Sweden Nigeria PV has a bright future ITRPV provides a guideline low: 4.5 TWp/ 7 PWh (16% of el. energy) medium: 6.8 TWp/ 1.6 PWh (+ prim. en.) high: 9.2 TWp/ 14.3 PWh (++ prim. en.) Max: 355GWp / 227 max: 5GWp / 23 max: 6GWp / 225 Annual Market [GWp] Europe Asia Americas Africa Annual Market Shipments Global Installations [GWp] 4 2 Annual Market [GWp] Europe Asia Americas Africa Annual Market Shipments Global Installations [GWp] Annual Market [GWp] Europe Asia Americas Africa Annual Market VDMA Author Page March 217 Europe Asia Americas Africa Annual Market Shipments Global Installations [GWp]

42 Thank you to all contributors! Thank you for your attention! Visit us at Source: VDMA Author Page March 217

Trends & Challenges in c-si PV - an update of the ITRPV 9 th edition (incl. maturity report)

Trends & Challenges in c-si PV - an update of the ITRPV 9 th edition (incl. maturity report) World Solar Congress Shanghai, September 4, 218 Dr. Markus Fischer, Hanwha Q Cells, VP R&D Operation Source: