Summary & Sample Pages. Global Fuel Cell System and Stack Component Market Report with Japanese Hydrogen Refueling Station Market

Transcription

1 Summary & Sample Pages Global Fuel Cell System and Stack Component Market Report with Japanese Hydrogen Refueling Station Market

2 Global Fuel Cell System and Stack Component Market Report with Japanese Hydrogen Refueling Station Market - July, 215 Osaka Marketing Division, Fuji Keizai 215 pages - Price Scope [Fuel Cell Market ] Area Item 25, (+shipment fee) The Report is Offered by CD-ROM(PDF) Shipment fee is up to 2,(Asia: 9, North America: 1,2 Europe: 1,5) Japan Fuel Cell System Stack Component Asia Korea, China North America USA, Canada [Application] Stationary (Large/Residential), Fuel Cell Vehicle, Transportation, Portable/Backup, Mobile Devices [PEFC] Electrode, Electrolyte, Bipolar Plate, GDL Europe UK, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Italy, France, Northern Europe [Type] PAFC, MCFC, SOFC, PEFC, DMFC [SOFC] Anode, Cathode, Electrolyte, Metallic interconnector [Hydrogen Refueling Station Market ] Area Japan Item Hydrogen Refueling Station, Hydrogen Fuel Research Item [ I General Overview/ Total] 1. Fuel Cell Market Overview 2. Total View of Fuel Cell System Market 3. Fuel Cell System Market Trend and Forecast by Application 4. Total View of Fuel Cell Stack Component Market (PEFC, SOFC) 5. FC Stack Material/Component Market Trend and Forecast 6. Analysis of Stack Costs based on Stack Component Quantities Used for per Fuel Cell System 7. Market Trend and Forecast(Fuel Cell System and Stack Component) 8. Fuel Cell System Market by Application 9. Fuel Cell System Market by Type 1. Fuel Cell System Market by Area 11. Stack Component Market 12. Correlation Chart of Major Companies 13. Company List [ II Market Data] 1. Fuel Cell System Market Data (Capacity) 2. Fuel Cell Stack Componet/Material Market Data (Volume) [ III Individual Market] <A. Fuel Cell System Market> 1. Product Summary 2. World Market by Area Japan, North America, Europe, Asia Quantity<Unit>, Capacity<kW>, Amount of Money< > 3. World Market by Type PAFC, MCFC, SOFC, PEFC, DMFC Capacity<kW> 4. Market Trend Analysis (1) Market Trend (2) Expected average shipping price of fuel cell system (3) Trend by Area 5. Market Share by Manufacturer 6. Movement of Major Company (1) Movement of Major Company (2) Cooperation (3) Major Product 7. Major company <B. Stack Component Market> 1. Product Summary 2. World Market by Area Quantity<kg,m 2,Sheet> Amount of Money< > Ratio by Area <Stationary (Large/Residential), s, Transportation, Portable/Backup, and Mobile Devices> Ratio by Area (Japan, North America, Europe, Asia) 3. World Market by Type Quantity<kg,m 2,Sheet> Amount of Money< > 4. Market Trend Analysis 5. Quantity of Loaded Components/Estimated Price 6. Effort and Product of Major Company 7. Major company [ ⅣHydrogen Refueling Station Market ] 1. Forecast of hydrogen stations in Japan 2. Hydrogen station construction forecast 3. Hydrogen station construction cost: Forecast 4. Hydrogen application and hydrogen sales forecast for Japan market 5. Hydrogen fuel related market: Shipment forecast (list) 6. List of commercial hydrogen stations in Japan 7. Regulation item to be revised for popularization of hydrogen stations in Japan Contact us info@fuji-keizai.co.jp Phone/ Fax/

3 Summary Fuel Cell System Market The Japanese market of Residential fuel cells almost takes a place beside the North American market of Large Stationary The total market in 213 was 19.4 billion yen in terms of monetary amount, and 17MW in terms of output scale. The ratio of fuel cells for Large Stationary was more than 6% in terms of monetary amount, and more than 7% in terms of output scale. Then, the ratio of Residential fuel cells follows. The ratio of these two applications is more than 9%. Among the areas, the North American market, making up 4%, was the largest, same as the result of the previous Fuji Keizai's research. Mass production of fuel cell vehicles will start around 22 Commercial fuel cell vehicles () released at the end of 214 come under the spotlight as a future market, together with hydrogen related infrastructures. After 215, foreign manufacturers will launch products, following the domestic manufacturers. Although the first generation of products by the preceding car manufacturers will fully prepared around 218, their manufacturing costs will be still high. Mass production of tens of thousands of vehicles will start around 22. The manufacturers have already started developing next generation models, and will focus on low-cost manufacturing further. PEFC Component/Material The PEFC stack component market size in 213 was 8.9 billion yen. Approx. 45% was for fuel cell vehicles, and large part of those components were used for R&D such as tests of stacks and development of cells. Soon, the domestic and foreign manufacturers will release commercial products consistently, and the component market will shift from R&D oriented to commercial oriented. As a result, the PEFC component market will rapidly grow up. SOFC Component/Material The SOFC stack component market size in 213 was 6.2 billion yen. Major companies which provide commercial SOFC products are foreign companies. Especially, Bloom Energy products are most required. Many Japanese companies supply electrolyte components and others to Bloom Energy. In the domestic market, Kyocera takes a lead. The market of mainly home-use applications will be formed, as TOTO, NGK Spark Plug, Sumitomo Precision Products, and NGK Insulators will newly release their products. Hydrogen Refueling Station Market in Japan In Japan, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry provides a prior preparation project for construction of hydrogen stations for fuel cell vehicles along with commercial distribution of them. This prior preparation project has started in 213. Some foreign countries are constructing hydrogen stations, and when internal stations and demonstration stations are included, not a few stations exist. However, only the limited number of stations are available for general users. We give an eye to the areas such as California in the US, Germany, England, and Northern European countries. In Japan, supposedly 74 hydrogen stations (totally 81 locations) will start operation by March 216. As a result, Japan has the largest number of hydrogen stations in the world.

4 Table of Contents I General overview/ Total II Market Data 1. Fuel Cell Market Overview 1 2. Total View of Fuel Cell System Market 3 3. Fuel Cell System Market Trend and Forecast by Application(amount of money) 5 4. Total View of Fuel Cell Stack Component Market (PEFC, SOFC) 7 5. FC Stack Material/Component Market Trend and Forecast by Application(amount of money) 9 6. Analysis of Stack Costs based on Stack Component Quantities Used for per Fuel Cell System Market Trend and Forecast(Fuel Cell System and Stack Component) Fuel Cell System Market by Application Fuel Cell System Market by Type Fuel Cell System Market by Area Stack Component Market Correlation Chart of Major Companies Company List Fuel Cell System Market Data (Capacity) Fuel Cell Stack Componet/Material Market Data (Volume) 42 III Individual Market A. Fuel Cell System Market A-1 Stationary Fuel Cell (Large) 51 A-2 Stationary Fuel Cell(Residential) 63 A-3 Fuel Cell Vehicle () 78 A-4 Fuel Cell for Transportation(Bus/Forklift/Motorcycle/APU) 88 A-5 Portable/Backup Fuel Celll 99 A-6 Fuel Cell for Mobile Device 111 B. Stack Component/Material Market B-1 PEFC Electrode 119 B-2 PEFC Electrolyte 129 B-3 PEFC Bipolar Plate 138 B-4 PEFC GDL (Gas Diffusion Layer) 147 B-5 SOFC Electrode(Anode) 158 B-6 SOFC Electrode(Cathode) 165 B-7 SOFC Electrolyte 172 B-8 SOFC Metallic Interconnector (Metallic IC) 18 Ⅳ Hydrogen Refueling Station Market in Japan Hydrogen Refueling Station Market in Japan 189

5 2. Total View of Fuel Cell System Market The Japanese market of Residential fuel cells almost takes a place beside the North American market of Large Stationary. The total market in 213 was 19.4 billion yen in terms of monetary amount, and 17MW in terms of output scale. The ratio of fuel cells for Large Stationary was more than 6% in terms of monetary amount, and more than 7% in terms of output scale. Then, the ratio o f Residential fuel cells follows. The ratio of these two applications is more than 9%. Among the areas, the North American market, making up 4%, was the largest, same as the result of the previous Fuji Keizai's research. North America takes the lead in the fuel cell market in Large Stationary, Transporation(mainly for forkilift,), and Portable/Backu p(mainly for emergency power supply)application market. On the other hand, the Japanese market in 213 experienced a rapid growth of residential applications. Globally, the market s ize of them reached almost same with the market size of fuel cells for Large Stationary in North America, and now they lead the market growth. The money grant system has activated the market until 215. Efforts to reduce the burden on users will be necessary after that. Manufacturers Manufacturers Capacity Share Capacity Share 61,6 47.4% 36,8 26.8% 48, 36.9% 71,9 52.4% 18,9 14.5% 21, 15.3% 6.5% 1,6 1.2% Others 825.6% 5,8 4.2% Total 129,925 1.% 137,1 1.% Manufacturers Portable/Backup (Unit) FY213(Actual) FY214(Estimate) <FY213> Unit Share Unit Share 25 1.% 1 5.%.% 1 5.% Total 25 1.% 2 1.% (Unit) FY213(Actual) FY214(Estimate) <FY213> Unit Share Unit Share 2,4 5.8% 2,5 53.% 1,1 23.3% % Others 1, % 1, % Total 4,72 1.% 4,721 1.% Manufacturers Unit Share Unit Share 17,5 49.3% 23, 47.8% 16, 45.1% 2, 41.6% 1,5 4.2% 4,5 9.4% 17.5% 18.4% Others 34 1.% 42.9% Total 35,51 1.% 48,1 1.% Transportation Manufacturers Manufacturers (Unit) FY213(Actual) FY214(Estimate) <FY213> Unit Share Unit Share % 2, % 1 9.6% 1 3.7% 8.8% 3 1.1% 5.5% 1.4% Others 1 1.% % Total 1,43 1.% 2,735 1.% Mobile Device (Unit) FY213(Actual) FY214(Estimate) Unit Share Unit Share 1, % 1,5 48.4% 1, 42.6% 1, 32.3% Others.% % Total 2,35 1.% 3,1 1.% 6,492.3B P/B Large <FY213> Explanatory note: Large:Stationary(Large) Res/Residential:Stationary(Residential) : Fuel cell vehicle Trans:Transportation P/B: Portable/Backup Mobile: Mobile Device Trans 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% %.%=<.5 Market Forecast By Area Japan (B ) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Market Forecast By Type SOFC 1% 1, North America (B ) 8% 75 Mass production of fuel cell vehicles will start around 22. EU 1% 2,5 6% NA 5 Commercial fuel cell vehicles () released at the end of 214 come under the spotlight as a future market, together with hy drogenrelated infrastructures. After 215, foreign manufacturers will launch products, following the domestic manufacturers. Althou gh the first 4% 8% 2, 25 2% DMFC 6% 1,5 % generation of products by the preceding car manufacturers will fully prepared around 218, their manufacturing costs will be still high. P/B Mobile PAFC Trans Large MCFC 4% 1, Mass production of tens of thousands of vehicles will start around 22. The manufacturers have already started developing ne xtgeneration models, and will focus on low-cost manufacturing further. 2% 5 PAFC (B ) SOFC The fuel cell vehicle manufacturers spent more than 1 years to launch the commercial products. The shipping size (based on o utput) of 1% 1 % 8% fuel cell vehicles will go over those of the other markets in 216. PEFC % The MCFC shipment was approximately 5% (based on kw). The main type in the future will be PEFC. Res 5 Asia Europe (B ) 4% In terms of output scale by type, MCFC made up approx. 5% of the market in 213. POSCO Energy and FuelCell Energy dominated the Japan 2% 1% 2,5 market, specializing in large-size fuel cells. In the future, the PEFC type will be main in the market due to sales growth of fuel cell 2,317.9B % vehicles, and the SOFC type operated by many new comers, including applications for Large and Residential, will be the second largest. 8% 2, EU 6% 1,5 PEFC (B ) NA Launch of the third generation of 4% 1, 1% 6, By Application By Type commercial 2% 5 8% P/B P/B DMFC PAFC FY225 6% 4, Trans DMFC PAFC Trans % PEFC MCFC Large MCFC 1% 1,8, 4% ,6, 2, P/B DMFC 2% Launch of the second generation Trans Mobile PAFC 8% Asia (B ) % 1,4, Res PEFC Large Res of commercial MCFC FY22 1% 2, ,2, 6% 23 Large SOFC 1,, SOFC Stationary fuel cell for residential 8% 2, DMFC (B ) Asia 8, By Area Japan market 45 x1unit 4% 1% 1 6% 1,5 6, Japan PEFC SOFC 8% Asia SOFC manufactures join the market 75 Res 4% 2% 4, 1, 6% B 192.3B one after the other. 2, 2% 5 4% EU Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems, Asia % 2% 25 Japan EU % EU NA NA Miura, GE, LG, Fuji Electric, Sample % Hitachi Zosen, Noritz /TOTO, FY211 FY215 Honda Motor/NGK Spark Plug, etc. FY213 The fuel cell vehicle "MIRAI" 923.2B Large Res Trans P/B Mobile Amount of Money 69.9B is released in December 214. Honda Motor will release a fuel cell vehicle in 215. NA Domestic hydrogen prices are 1, to 1,1 yen/kg. Manufacturer's Performance by Application (FY213/FY214) World Market in 213 <by Area/Application> (amount of money, the number of units, capacity) 印刷不要 Large (kw) Residential (Unit) FY213(Actual) FY214(Estimate) <FY213> FY213(Actual) FY214(Estimate) <FY213> North 北米 America Japan 日本アジア Asia Europe 欧州 Res PAFC Asia FY23 MCFC SOFC PEFC Japan Total 合計 Large P/B Trans Mobile Res Total 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % MCFC 41,586M 38.% 31,13M 28.5% 27,173M 24.8% 1,27M 1.2% (B ) 1, kw 39.3% Res kw 14.4% Large kw 36.2% P/B kw.7% Units.6% Units 79.7% Units.1% Units 4.6% 2,758M 2.5% 1,44M 1.3% 786M.7% 471M.4% 4kW 2.7% P/B kw.9% P/B kw.9% Large kw.5% Units 4.8% Units.7% Units.7% Units.% 1,17M 1.% 318M.3% 357M.3% 434M.4% kw 1.9% Large kw.2% Res kw.1% Res kw.2% Units 2.3% Units.% Units.5% Units.6% 6M.% 1M.% 3M.3% 119M.1% kw.% Mobile kw.% Trans kw.3% kw 1.3% Units.7% Units.1% Units.% Units.1% - - Trans - - Mobile - (B ) 16M.% 56M.1% kw.2% Trans kw.1% Units.% Units.% Mobile 4M.% kw.% Units 4.6% 45,457M 41.6% 32,889M 3.1% 28,631M 26.2% 2,39M 2.2% kw 43.9% Total kw 15.6% Total kw 37.7% Total kw 2.8% Units 8.3% Units 8.5% Units 1.3% Units 9.8% 19,367million yen kw Units 1% 1% 1% Fuji Keizai

6 4. Total View of Fuel Cell Stack Component Market (PEFC, SOFC) P E F C S O F C The PEFC stack component market size in 213 was 8.9 billion yen. Approx. 45% was for fuel cell vehicles, and large part of those components were used for R&D such as tests of stacks and development of cells. Soon, the domestic and foreign manufacturers will release commercial products consistently, and the component market will shift from R&D oriented to commercial oriented. As a result, the PEFC component market will rapidly grow up. For stack components, performance development and cost reduction are going at the same time. For commercial residential fuel cells, cost reduction is most important. It is expected that costs are reduced by expanded production of components for fuel cell vehicles. Ideas of the component manufacturers, such as specification standardization, are required for production expansion. As the market is growing, the rate of rare metal electrodes will go up. Stack component cost/unit 2, (k /Unit) 1 / U n i t 15, 1, 5, The SOFC stack component market size in 213 was 6.2 billion yen. Major companies which provide commercial SOFC products are foreign companies. Especially, Bloom Energy products are most required. Many Japanese companies supply electrolyte components and others to Bloom Energy. In the domestic market, Kyocera takes a lead. The market of mainly home-use applications will be formed, as TOTO, NGK Spark Plug, Sumitomo Precision Products, and NGK Insulators will newly release their products. The SOFC applications are limited. The market of SOFC components is largely affected by the market of fuel cells for industrial/business use. The component market grows accordingly as the market of fuel cells for industrial/business use is expanding. However, since there is no big customer like manufacturers, the SOFC component market will be smaller than the PEFC component market. Stack component cost/unit 1 / u n i t 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, PEFC Stack Component/Material(By type) B FY Electrode Electrolyte Bipolar Plate GDL Total % 8% 6% 6% 4% 2% % B ( 億円 ) 3 1% 6, 4% 8% 5, 2 4, 6% 2% 3, 4% 1 2, 2% 1, % % 年 年 年 年 23 年 23 % 213 年 215 年 22 年 225 年 23 年 Anode Cathode Electrolyte Metallic IC Amount of Money FY Transportation Portable/Backup..... Mobile Device..... Total Large Residential Transportation Portable/Backup Mobile Device Large Residential Large Residential Transportation Portable/Backup Mobile Device B Large Residential Transportation Portable/Backup Mobile Device Total Each number in indicates an average system capacity: 213->215->22->225-> , (k /Unit) (k /Unit) (k /Unit) (k /Unit) (k /Unit) 7 16, , (kw/unit) , (kw/unit) (kw/unit) 3 6 (kw/unit) (kw/unit) 1, (kw/unit) 4 8, , , , 5 1 Each number in indicates an average system capacity: 213->215->22->225-> (k /Unit) Stationary(Large) (k /Unit) Stationary(Residential) (k /Unit) (kw/unit) 35 (kw/unit) PEFC Stack Component/Material(By Application) Transportation (kw/unit) 1 P/B 1 FY FY FY FY FY FY Electrode -- 19,5 4,17 6,357 9,896 Electrode Electrode 19, Electrode Electrode Electrode Electrolyte -- 42,86 5,444 8,53 13,235 Electrolyte Electrolyte 94, Electrolyte Electrolyte Electrolyte Bipolar Plate -- 88,3 13,88 13,81 2,291 Bipolar Plate Bipolar Plate 39, Bipolar Plate Bipolar Plate Bipolar Plate GDL -- 22,288 2,16 3,6 4,228 GDL GDL 7, GDL GDL GDL Total ,948 24,655 3,974 47,651 Total Total 16,92 2, Total Total Total Sample B SOFC Stack Component/Material(By type) SOFC Stack Component/Material(By Application) B B B 1% 6 FY FY Large % Residential Anode Cathode Electrolyte Metallic IC Total % Electrode Electrolyte Bipolar Plate GDL Amount of Money 8% 6% 4% 2% FY FY FY FY FY FY Anode 1,568 1, Anode Anode Anode Anode Anode Cathode 2,352 2,83 1,238 1,726 2,727 Cathode Cathode Cathode Cathode Cathode Electrolyte 7,57 7,365 3,342 3,682 4,957 Electrolyte Electrolyte Electrolyte Electrolyte Electrolyte Metallic IC 14,115 13,38 4,782 5,59 5,696 Metallic IC Metallic IC Metallic IC Metallic IC Metallic IC Total 25,93 24,328 1,27 11,817 14,37 Total Total Total Total Total ( 億円 ) B Mobile Explanatory note: Large:Stationary(Large) Res/Residential:Stationary(Residential) : Fuel cell vehicle Trans:Transportation P/B: Portable/Backup Mobile: Mobile Devices *Since the numbers in the tables are rounded, the sums and the totals do not match in some cases. Fuji Keizai

7 Sample Fuel Cell Vehicle () A-3 Fuel Cell Vehicle () 1. Product Summary Fuel cell vehicles we researched in this section are passenger vehicles driven mainly by fuel cells, including fuel cell systems, motors, and high-pressure hydrogen containers. Due to high performance in output density, load following capability, and yield temperature range, the PEFC type was adopted for them. As fuel, pure hydrogen gas was used. We did not include buses, trucks, scooters, APUs for vehicles, and range extenders in this section, and classified them into the "fuel cell for drives" group. 2. World Market by Area FY Actual Estimate Short-Term Forecast Long-Term Forecast Volume (units) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx WorldWide Capacity (kw) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Amount of money (M ) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Japan Volume (units) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Capacity (kw) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Amount of money (M ) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx North Volume (units) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx America Capacity (kw) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Amount of money (M ) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Europe Volume (units) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Capacity (kw) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Amount of money (M ) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Asia Volume (units) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Capacity (kw) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx Amount of money (M ) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx (units) 2,5, 2,, 1,5, Sample 1,, 5, Volume/Japan Volume/Others Amount of money Actual Estimate Short-Term Forecast Long-Term Forecast (M ) 5,, 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Sample

8 Fuel Cell Vehicle () 3. World Market by Type FY Actual Estimate Short-term forecast Long-term forecast (kw) PAFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx MCFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx SOFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx PEFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx DMFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx PAFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx MCFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx SOFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx PEFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx DMFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx North xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx America PAFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx MCFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx SOFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx PEFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx DMFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx PAFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx MCFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx SOFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx PEFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx DMFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx PAFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx MCFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx SOFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx PEFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx DMFC xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx (kw) 8,, Japan (kw) 8,, North America 6,, 4,, 2,, DMFC PEFC SOFC MCFC PAFC 6,, 4,, 2,, DMFC PEFC SOFC MCFC PAFC (kw) 8,, Europe 6,, DMFC PEFC 4,, SOFC MCFC 2,, PAFC Sample (kw) 8,, Asia 6,, DMFC PEFC 4,, SOFC MCFC 2,, PAFC

9 Sample 4. Market Trend Analysis (1) Market trend Fuel Cell Vehicle () Toyota Motor started selling a fuel cell vehicle, "MIRAI." Toyota Motor has been selling its sedan-sized four-seater fuel cell vehicle, "MIRAI," since December 15, 214 in the domestic market. The recommended retail price is xxx million yen (xxx million yen, including tax). Toyota intends to sell the model mainly by the Toyota and Toyopet shops in areas where hydrogen stations will be prepared. Honda Motor will start selling fuel cell vehicles commercially within 215, and as a result, the fuel cell vehicle market will get up for real in Japan. The manufacturers will produce several thousands of vehicles per year at the beginning of sales period. Toyota Motor intends to produce xxx units of "MIRAI" per year. As of January 215, the number of orders received is more than 1,, and Toyota will also start selling the model from 215 in the US and the European countries, so the demand exceeds the supply. It intended to deliver products without limitation to customers who ordered from the very beginning, and will increase the yield. Although fuel cell vehicles attract the attention of consumers and mass medias, and a number of orders from government offices and others will go up the sales, more time is necessary for the fuel cell vehicles to be a general option for purchasers, from the aspect of high price and difficulty of refueling. There are concerns about the negative drop of sales after the special demand. The relevant governmental and nongovernmental parties well understand that they will have to avoid a negative impression caused by decline from the previous year's result. We estimate that the manufacturers will sell the vehicles in the light of demand-and-supply balance. The number of the first-generation fuel cell vehicles to be sold by even the manufacturers of which production volume is large is several thousands of units for the time being. Price of hydrogen fuel: 1, to 1,1 yen/kg Iwatani, Tokyo Gas, and JX Nippon Oil & Energy announced the hydrogen prices at the hydrogen stations. As of January 215, the price of Iwatani and Tokyo Gas is 1,1 yen/kg, and that of JX Nippon Oil & Energy is 1, yen/kg. For users, a lower fuel price than the gasoline price is an important point. The prices from 1, to 1,1 yen are derived from the price of gasoline required for a hybrid vehicle with the same automobile rank as MIRAI to run a same distance, and 1, to 1,1 yen will be a standard price range. These prices are set with emphasis on diffusion of fuel cell vehicles. When raw hydrogen material prices and construction and operation costs for hydrogen stations are taken into consideration, actual costs vastly go over these prices. The hydrogen station construction costs are high, and the rate of operating them is low due to the small number of users for the time being. Therefore, hydrogen station operators also face tough situation for a while. To diffuse more fuel cell vehicles, they have to increase the umber of hydrogen stations. For that purpose, they will have to reduce construction costs under deregulation, improve the rate of operating, and set a framework, so that the hydrogen stations independently make a profit and price competitiveness against gasoline vehicles increases. In the foreign markets, Hyundai Motor starts leasing to general users. Hyundai Motor has produced "Tucson ix35" in the Ulsan factory in Korea since 212, and deployed them in Europe, the US, and Korea. In the US market, the initial deposit is $2,999, and three-year leasing contract price is $499/month (including hydrogen fuel and maintenance fee). The accumulated number of sales by the end of 214 was more than 1. Hyundai Motor aims to achieve

10 Sample Fuel Cell Vehicle () (2) Estimated average system shipment price Further cost reduction will start from 215 so that large-output stacks will be loaded not only special vehicles, but also general-purpose models. The table above shows the manufacturers' shipment prices, which are round 8% of the retail sales prices. Fuel cell vehicles commercialized by around 217 will be special vehicles. Several tens of thousands of second generation fuel cells will be sold, but they will be still loaded on luxury models. The manufacturers aim at much higher output so that users can load them for every car type, and for that purpose, cost-reduction is necessary. It is considered that stack prices will go own. The manufacturers aim to load the stacks on vehicles of which prices are around 3 million yen in 23. The market is growing toward 22. Around 22, new models will be introduced and produced on a large scale. Concerning the first generation of commercial s, we consider that the manufacturers will find problems in mass-production, and adjust the production according to preparation conditions of the infrastructures. Therefore, they will keep a certain level of the production. They are developing mass-production systems to produce tens of thousands of vehicles per year, as improving the mass-production efficiency and extracting new problems. Around 22, with an eye on the sales environment including the infrastructures, they will shift the production capacity to produce tens of thousands of vehicles per year. They intend to form the market base with hundreds of thousands of units around 23, and promote development aiming at the current hybrid car prices. (K /Unit) Shipping Price/Units Shipping Price Units 6, 5, 4, Sample 3, 2, 1, (units) 2,5, 2,, 1,5, Sample 1,, 5, Actual Estimate Short-term forecast Long-term forecast (3) Trend by area Japan Toyota Motor released the fuel cell vehicle in 214 and Honda Motor also starts selling the model in 215. The market is highly expected as a new industrial field, and all over Japan is working on expanding the market. We expect Japan will lead the global market. Half of the manufacturers leading the global market are Japanese manufacturers. The government budgets a large-scale money grant system and supports both preparation of the infrastructures and sales promotion of s. Many component manufacturers are also making efforts, and all major fuel cell technologies are available in Japan. Such conditions accelerate development in Japan. Toyota Motor develops and produces many of the main components by itself or its group companies. <Money grants for purchasers> The government money grant system, the Next-Generation Vehicle Promotion Center' money grants for CEV (clean energy vehicle) purchasers, is applicable. The money up to 2/3 (upper limit: 2.2 million yen) is provided. The eco-car tax break is also applicable. In

11 Sample Fuel Cell Vehicle () including its group company, Audi, intends to commercialize fuel cell vehicles after 22. The strategy of the Volkswagen group, known for its big sales in the world, gains public attention. Asia As Hyundai Motor is focusing on developing fuel cell vehicles, the Korea government set a goal in 29 to prepare 5, s and 5 hydrogen stations by 22. China, suffering from serious air pollution, is actively trying to protect environment from vehicle pollution. With the goal to prepare 1 hydrogen stations by 22, it is now focusing on construction of infrastructures for electric vehicles, and diffusion of them. We consider the Chinese market may grow rapidly if the government determines a policy to promote fuel cell vehicles. Hydrogen can be produced with electrolysis technologies in any places. A vast country like China, which requires much costs for power transmission and fuel transportation sees the benefits of hydrogen when hydrogen production technologies are improved. In and after 23, rising countries like China will begin to play an important role in the market. 5. Market Share by Manufacturer (Unit) Manufacturers FY213(Actual) FY214(Estimate) Unit Share Unit Share A xxx x% xxx x% B xxx x% xxx x% <FY213> 1.% Hyundai Motors has sold "Tucson ix35 Fuel Cell" since 212. As many of the manufacturers just focused on developing new fuel ell vehicles and did not produce new ones from 213 to 214, the shipment data was only A Motor's. Toyota Motor which announced its new fuel cell vehicle, "MIRAI" in January 214 has started shipment. We expect it will increase the actual performance after 214. Toyota was accredited by GTR13 (world standard) established in 213 for the form of MIRAI, and can deploy this model globally with the same specification. It will start selling it in the USA in autumn 215, and also in Europe in September 215. It announced that it would sell at least xxx units in the US by the end of 217, and xxx to xxx units in Europe by around 216. We estimate its market share will go up in the future. (1) Movement of major company Total xxx 1.% xxx 1.% 6. Movement of Major Company Toyota Motor Toyota started selling its sedan type fuel cell vehicle, "MIRAI" in December 15, 214.

12 Sample Fuel Cell Vehicle () (2) Cooperation <Domestic manufacturer> <Foreign manufacturer> A Motor Alliance B Motor Alliance Investment C Motor Alliance Subsidiary Alliance (3) Major product Disposed the intellectual property related to the fuel cell business. Motor Product Form Weight Vehicle Total weight L*W*H Riding capacity Form Type FC stack Number of pieces Connection Max. Output Fuel type Fuel container No. of pieces Internal volume Nominal working pressure *Created by Fuji Keizai, based on the web page of Motor Motor Product Fuel Cell Type Power Torque Max. Output Fuel tank Internal volume of fuel tank *Created by Fuji Keizai, based on the web page of Motor

13 Retail/ Sales agent Application FC stack system DMFC PAFC MCFC SOFC PEFC Asia Europe North America Japan Sample 7. Major Company Fuel Cell Vehicle () Business operation area Type Business segment Company xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx

14 Sample PEFC Electrolyte B-2 PEFC Electrolyte 1. Product Summary In this section, we focus on electrolyte membrane for PEFCs. Electrolyte membrane consists of polymers with ion conductivity. For fuel cell applications, high oxidation resistance is necessary. Technology of materials such as monomer, the raw material of electrolyte, and thin film forming technology are required for production of electrolyte membrane. In addition, contribution to higher output, and also low-cost and high durability are required for fuel cell electrolyte membrane. Electrolyte membrane is an important component, which determines a fuel cell feature. Improved electrolyte film performances contribute to improvement of power generation performance, durability, and downsizing of stacks. There are several types, depending on raw material: fluorine electrolyte membrane, hydrocarbon electrolyte membrane, and organic and inorganic hybrid electrolyte membrane. 2. World Market by Area FY Volume CAGR Amount of money CAGR (kg-pt C) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Actual Estimate Short-Term Forecast Long-Term Forecast ( m2 ) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx (%) -- x% x% x% x% x% x% x% (M ) xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx (%) -- x% x% x% x% x% x% x% Volume Sample Amount of money Actual Estimate Short-Term Forecast Long-Term Forecast (M ) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, ( /g-pt C) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Average Cost 3,9 3,9 3,9 3, Actual Estimate Short-Term Forecast Long-Term Forecast In 213, approx. xxx m2 of electrolyte film was shipped. In 214, while shipments of home-use fuel cells and commercialized fuel cell vehicles (s) went up, the demand for components used for development of s decreased. Therefore, we estimate the shipments in the total market decreased. s need a lot of components for development. Especially before commercialization, full stacks for durability tests are manufactured. In 214, the fuel cell models have been launched in the market. The industry focuses on performance development of the next generation stacks, and that development phase does not need a large amount of electrolyte. We estimate the market will get smaller slightly.

15 Sample PEFC Electrolyte <Market Share by Application> ( m2 ) FY Volume Share Volume Share Volume Share Stationary(Large) xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Stationary(Residential) xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Transportation xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Portble/Backup xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Mobile Device xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Total xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Portble/B ackup 18.1% Transport ation 2.8% Mobile Device.6% 35.6% Stationary (Large).7% Portble/B ackup 7.% Transport ation 4.3% Stationary (Large).8% Stationary (Residential) 25.% Stationary (Residential) 42.3% 62.4% Mobile Device.5% Portble/B ackup 2.6% Transport ation.6% Mobile Device.1% 93.3% Stationary (Large).1% Stationary (Residential) 3.3% <Market Share by Area> ( m2 ) FY Volume Share Volume Share Volume Share Japan xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% North America xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Europe xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Asia xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Total xxx x% xxx x% xxx x% Europe 12.6% Asia 13.3% Japan 53.8% Europe 22.2% Asia 7.4% Japan 44.9% Asia 15.4% Japan 24.4% North America 2.3% North America 25.5% Europe 32.7% North America 27.5%

16 Sample PEFC Electrolyte 3. World Market by Type <Market Forecast by Application(Volume)> ( m2 ) FY Actual Estimate Short-Term Forecast Long-Term Forecast WorldWide Stationary (Large) Stationary (Residential) Transportation Portble/ Backup Mobile Device

17 PEFC Electrolyte <Market Forecast by Application(Amount of money)> (M ) FY Actual Estimate Short-Term Forecast Long-Term Forecast WorldWide Stationary (Large) Stationary (Residential) Transportation Portble/ Backup Mobile Device

18 Sample PEFC Electrolyte 4. Market Trend Analysis Latest trend The Japanese market made up more than 5% of the shipments in 213. The major demands were for home-use fuel cell application and for development of s. Also, the ratio of home-use fuel cells sold in the Japanese market was approx. 4% of the world market. Characteristically, the Japanese market is accelerated by PEFCs. On the other hand, large fuel cells are being introduced in the North American market, since MCFCs and SOFCs are main types in the market. PEFC electrolyte is used for portable/backup power units, in addition to s. PEFC electrolyte will be mainly used for s in 22. Before that, home-use fuel cells in Japan will contribute to the market growth. For 5 years until 22, the preceding six manufacturers (incl. foreign manufacturers) shall make efforts to raise the awareness about the products of the first generation. We estimate the shipments of each company are lower than that of Toyota's shipments, and the accumulated number of manufactured s until 22 will be limited. When the other car manufacturers and range extenders develop s, and the PEFC products for drives such as buses and fork lifts increase, the demand for electrolyte film will be 1 times of the current demand in 22. We estimate that shipments in Japan in 215 will be xxx units, rather a limited number. However, Toyota received more orders for "MIRAI" than it expected, and there are also personal users who make an order. Therefore, an expected value is high. We forecast that the demand for electrolyte films, which is higher than the demand for R&D, will come true. We consider the shipments in Japan will go over xxx units in 218 or later. The shipments will drastically increase when the demand for R&D shifts to the actual users demand. The popular type s (the second generation), which will be commercialized around 22, will spur demand and contribute to the market growth. Fuel cell vehicle "MIRAI": 37 cells, of which current density is around 3A/cm 2 stacks are going to be smaller while producing higher output, and the quantity of electrolyte film loaded on the s is decreasing due to the increment of current density. The current density now is close to 3A/cm 2, and the quantity of electrolyte film which is necessary for stack output of "MIRAI" (114kW) is xxx m2 /unit. The output density is more than 2 times of the output density of FCHV-adv in 28, and 3 times of that of the original FCHV. Accordingly, stacks have been getting smaller, the number of components and materials to be used has been decreased, and cost-reduction is going on. In the future, around 22, technical development of electrolyte films for the real market of s will start, and the market participants will have to prepare price strategies, for their own film products. The quantity consumed will decrease further, and xxx yen to xxx yen/ m2 will be a target price.

19 1st generation 2nd generation 3rd generation 1st generation of commercial model PEFC Electrolyte Toyota Motor and Honda Motor provide same output density with their models in 215. Development condition of s and marketing timing vary according to manufacturer. Honda Motor will launch a commercial model within 215, and Nissan Motor will launch its model in or after 217. Some say full-scale marketing of the major manufacturers will start in 23. Toyota Motor considers that its full-scale mass-production model will be the third generation model, and intends to release it in 225. Honda Motor Toyota Motor Nissan Motor Released FCX in December 22. Released FCHV in December 22. Adopted the UTC's FC stacks in 22. Max. output: 54kW Developed "Honda FC STACK," the world first next generation stack which could start at -2 in October 23. Adopted the model jointly developed by Nissan and UTCFC in 23. Announced X-TRAIL, it had developed, in December 25. Announced FCX Clarity in November 27. Developed its own unique V Flow FC stack technology. Started leasing FCHV-adv in June 28. Shipped more than 1 units of the model in Japan and the US. Developed the next generation FC stack with twice output density in August 28. Content: 68L / Max. output: 13kW Announced -R in November 211. It was a concept car, but could drive. Disclosed the new FC stack in October kW/L / Stack output: 85kW/ Content: 34L Developed the stack for s, which would be released in 215, in September 212. Output density: 3kW/L Announced the model in November 214, and started selling the products within 214. FC stack : 1kW or higher / Cell thickness: 2mm / Output density: 3.1kW/L Announced "MIMRAI" in November 214, and started selling the products in December. FC stack: 114kW, 37 cells Output density: 3.1kW/L Intends to start selling the s in or after 217 Thin filming and reinforcing material bring non-humidification, and no humidification module is necessary. Non-humidification, resulting from improved electrolyte films, makes humidification modules in commercialized unnecessary. Non-humidification was mainly derived from thin electrolyte filming, which allowed self-humidification. Also, the thin film technology led to low-resistance, and contributed to improvement of stack performance. The current electrolyte film thickness is around xxx μm, and the electrolyte film hardly supports the machine strength independently. There is a need of reinforcing film and other measures. When the industry shifts a development focus to the next generation model, it will set a new development theme. High temperature, which has been a conventional theme to downsize radiators, is not so important anymore because the effect of raising output is not so expected. A big theme is now cost-reduction. The electrolyte manufacturers have to improve their quality management and increase the production capacity, in order to focus on developing mass-production specifications. Orientation of ionomer development Ionomer is a material making up electrode material. Previously, like the electrolyte film element, polymeric materials have been used. However, realization of advanced electrode materials, higher performance ionomer is necessary, and optimized one for the electrode material is required. The industry needs to develop a new ionomer, as the technology to reduce the quantity of platinum catalyst consumed in the next models. However, since the quantity of ionomer consumed is very small, and the polymeric material dedicated to the application may be expensive, orientation of the development has not been fixed yet.

20 Sample PEFC Electrolyte 5. Quantity of Loaded Components/Estimated Price <Quantity of loaded component/price> *The quantity to be loaded on a fuel cell system, excluding losses at the time of cell stack production Quantity of Electrolyte per unit FY m2 /unit m2 /kw Yen/ m2 Yen/Unit kw/unit Stationary ~ ~ 1.3 4, ~ 6, 4,8, ~ 19,5, 15 ~ 25 (Large) 22 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 225 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 23 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Stationary ~.88.7 ~ 1.1 2, ~ 3, 9,8 ~ 26,4.7 ~.8 (Residential) 22 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 225 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 23 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~.11 16, ~ 24, 112, ~ 316,8 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 225 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 23 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Transportation ~ ~.4 24, ~ 36, 19,2 ~ 1,8 4 ~ 7 22 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 225 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 23 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Portble/ ~ ~ , ~ 36, 57,6 ~ 352,8 3 ~ 7. Backup 22 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 225 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 23 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Mobile ~.11.7 ~ , ~ 36, 84 ~ ~.1 Device 22 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 225 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 23 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ *Excluding losses at the time of cell stack production Quanties of Electrolyte per system output Cost of Electrolyte Cost of Electrolyte per unit Average system output [Reference data] Estimated shipments of fuel cell systems <PEFC System Market(Capacity Volume)> FY Actual Estimate Short-Term Forecast Long-Term Forecast Stationary Capacity(kW) 35 (Large) Volume(Unit) 2 Stationary Capacity(kW) 23,686 3,46 (Residential) Volume(Unit) 33,736 43,36 Capacity(kW) 2,5 21,4 Volume(Unit) 25 2 Transportation Capacity(kW) 3,734 13,79 Volume(Unit) 943 2,635 Portble/Backup Capacity(kW) 8,72 8,58 Volume(Unit) 2,32 2,22 Mobile Device Capacity(kW) Volume(Unit) 2,35 3,1 Total Capacity(kW) 38,651 74,596 Volume(Unit) 39,374 51,517

21 Sample 6. Effort and Product of Major Company PEFC Electrolyte <Company A> It is co-developing with XXX to operate the NEDO project < Company B> Company B is

22 Retail/ Sales agent R&D organization Process manufacturer Material manufacturer Cell manufacturer System manufacturer Sample PEFC Electrolyte 7. Major Company Company Remark xxx xxx