Global market review of automotive turbochargers and superchargers forecasts to edition

Transcription

1 Global market review of automotive turbochargers and superchargers forecasts to edition

2 Page i Global market review of automotive turbochargers and superchargers forecasts to edition by Alex Graham March 2006 Published by Aroq Limited Seneca House Buntsford Park Road Bromsgrove Worcestershire B60 3DX United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Web: Registered in England no:

3 Page iv Table of contents Single-user licence edition... ii Copyright statement... ii Incredible ROI for your budget single and multi-user licences... ii just-auto.com membership...iii Table of contents... iv List of tables... vii List of figures... viii Chapter 1 Executive summary... 1 Turbocharging... 1 Europe... 1 North America...1 Asia... 2 Supercharging... 3 Outlook... 3 Hybrids... 4 Chapter 2 Turbocharger what is it and how does it work?... 6 Recent developments Drivers for growth... 8 Technical developments and innovations... 9 Variable geometry turbocharging... 9 Two-stage boosting Gasoline engine boosting Twin-scroll turbocharging Chapter 3 Europe and the diesel engine Fixed turbochargers Evolution of variable geometry turbochargers Two-stage turbocharging...15 The limits of turbodiesels When the diesel boom ends: turbochargers for GDI Traditional gasoline turbo engines The rise of GDI Technical issues Downsizing...20 Outlook for turbochargers in GDI applications Diesel beyond GDI Chapter 4 North America the dominance of gasoline Engine boosting perceived as performance improvement on high end applications... 23

4 Page v Vehicle and engine size and displacement The debate between turbodiesels and hybrid powertrains and the implications for engine boosting Traditional gasoline engines...27 Chapter 5 Asia-Pacific Japan China Rest of Asia Chapter 6 Supercharger what is it and how does it work? Recent developments Drivers for growth Chapter 7 Europe Twincharger Cost gap between diesel and gasoline engines Window of opportunity with GDI Efficiency improvements...37 Chapter 8 North America High performance approach set to continue Market likely to remain small but that implies huge potential for growth Japan/China Engines for export Chapter 9 Turbocharger and supercharger market trends and forecasts to Chapter 10 Supplier market shares Global market in Europe North America Japan/China/Rest of Asia...48 Chapter 11 Supplier profiles BorgWarner Market position/share in turbochargers Financial position with regard to turbos, in context of total Corporate strategy in turbochargers Recent new turbo products & innovations Key turbocharger contracts Eaton Market position/share Financial position with regard to superchargers, in context of total Corporate strategy for superchargers Recent new supercharger products and innovations Key supercharger contracts Honeywell Turbo Technologies Market position/share... 56

5 Page vi Financial position with regard to turbos, in context of total Corporate strategy in turbochargers Recent new turbo products and innovations Key turbocharger contracts Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI) Market position/share Financial position with regard to turbos, in context of total Corporate strategy in turbochargers Recent new turbo products and innovations Key turbocharger customers Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Market position/share Financial position with regard to turbos, in context of total Corporate strategy in turbochargers Recent new turbo products and innovations Key turbocharger contracts Chapter 12 Outlook and roadmap for engine boosting to 2011 turbochargers and superchargers Turbodiesel Gasoline Hybrids New technology and design Superchargers The powertrain of the future...67

6 Page vii List of tables Table 1: Global demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and commercial vehicles e (units ms) Table 2: Global market value for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and commercial vehicles e (US$m) Table 3: European demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and commercial vehicles e (units ms) Table 4: European installation rates for turbochargers in gasoline engines for passenger vehicles, e (% of vehicle build) Table 5: North American demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and commercial vehicles e (units ms) Table 6: Japan/Asia demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline), and commercial vehicles e (units ms) Table 7: Global demand for superchargers, e (units 000s)... 44

7 Page viii List of figures Figure 1: The basics of turbocharger operation... 6 Figure 2: Schematic of R2S turbocharging system Figure 3: Diesel share of the passenger car market, Western Europe Figure 4: Basics of a Roots type supercharger Figure 5: Percentage share of global turbocharger production 2005e Figure 6: Percentage share of total European turbocharger production 2005e Figure 7: Percentage share of European gasoline turbocharger production 2005e Figure 8: Percentage share of North American turbocharger production 2005e Figure 9: Percentage share of Asian turbocharger production 2005e Figure 10: Subaru s B5 TPH turbo gas-hybrid powertrain concept... 65

8 Chapter 1 Executive summary Page 1 Chapter 1 Executive summary Turbocharging Until relatively recently, turbochargers in passenger cars were primarily employed in high-performance applications. Boosting was perceived mainly as a way to increase the output of already high power engines. It was only with the advent of direct injection diesels in passenger cars that the potential of turbochargers to improve power density for economy reasons began to be exploited. In 1995, global production of turbochargers for light passenger vehicle engines was around 3.5m units, including both diesel and gasoline engines. In 2005, some x.xm turbochargers for light passenger vehicles were produced globally. In other words, the sector saw absolute growth of almost xxx% in ten years. Europe has accounted for around three-quarters of the growth in demand over that period. Practically all of that growth has come through applications in diesel engines. Europe Diesel engines have experienced an unprecedented boom in Western Europe over the past ten years. As the engine boosting device that is almost a given with diesel, the turbocharger sector has also undergone a transformation, growing to many times its size since There appears no immediate possibility of a sudden shift away from turbodiesel technology but some issues are coming to the fore in light of the fact that between some xxm new diesel-powered cars came onto Europe s roads. Increasingly, the belief among Europe s automotive industry is that the long term solution to fuel consumption and emissions reduction lies in the new generation of gasoline engines if it is to be economically viable for the industry itself. North America 2005 was a difficult year for American carmakers and consumers. Various events, including the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, contributed to sustained gasoline prices of over US$x.xx per gallon. Sales of full-size SUVs sagged

9 Chapter 2 Turbocharger what is it and how does it work? Page 6 Chapter 2 Turbocharger what is it and how does it work? A turbocharger is an air pump, made up of a turbine and compressor, connected by a single shaft. Exhaust gases from the engine are recycled and forced through the blades of the turbine causing it to rotate. This, in turn, causes the compressor to rotate at the other end of the shaft which draws in air from the outside. This air is compressed and forced into the engine cylinders. The increase in oxygen and pressure causes more complete and efficient combustion, increasing fuel economy and power and torque output. Figure 1: The basics of turbocharger operation Source: Honeywell Turbo Technologies Because a given amount of pressure is required to start the turbine operation, turbochargers generally start providing boost at around x,xxx-x,xxxrpm. This is known as the boost threshold of a turbocharger. At full operating speed, a modern turbocharger will rotate at speeds of up to xxx,xxxrpm. Such

10 Chapter 3 Europe and the diesel engine Page 13 Chapter 3 Europe and the diesel engine Since the mid-1990s, consumer acceptance and, therefore, installation rates of diesel engines in the passenger vehicle market have soared in Western Europe. From a base of below xx% in 1990, more than xx% of passenger cars were fitted with a diesel engine in Figures from the German automotive body, the VDA, suggest that xx.x% of new cars were diesel powered in In volume terms, this equates to around x.xm new diesel engines, almost all of which were fitted with one or more turbochargers. Figure 3: Diesel share of the passenger car market, Western Europe xx8.x% xx% xx.x% xx. x% xx.x% xx.x% xx.x% xx.x% (forecast) Source: Bosch The technical breakthroughs that led to this boom were primarily high pressure direct fuel injection systems, better engine and powertrain cooling and the introduction of new turbocharger technologies. The most important of the latter developments was the introduction of variable geometry turbos for diesel engines.

11 Chapter 4 North America the dominance of gasoline Page 23 Chapter 4 North America the dominance of gasoline In light passenger vehicles, including pickup trucks and SUVs, the North American market is hugely dominated by gasoline engines. In 2005, only around x% of all engines were diesels. Furthermore, due to historically low fuel prices and a political and business culture that is inclined away from active government intervention, North America has experienced considerably less impetus in the area of engine technology and reducing fuel consumption levels than, say, Europe or Japan. Engine boosting perceived as performance improvement on high end applications As a result, North America primarily the USA experiences very low demand for engine boosting. Supplier estimates suggest that only around one million turbochargers were fitted in 2005 to light passenger vehicles, equivalent to around x% of the total light vehicle build. As elsewhere, superchargers are less common even than turbos, with Eaton measuring demand at only x.xx% or around xx,xxx units of volume. Unlike Europe, where engine boosting is now perceived primarily as a means of engine downsizing and reducing fuel consumption and emissions, boosting in the North American market is still very much about high performance and tends to occur only in sporty, niche applications. In late 2006, General Motors will introduce the first direct injection gasoline engine, its 2.0L Ecotec Turbo, fitted to the Pontiac Solstice GXP roadster. BorgWarner will supply the fixed geometry turbocharger to this vehicle. Vehicle and engine size and displacement Simplistically speaking, the average passenger vehicle in North America is significantly larger than the average car in Japan or Europe. Not least, this is

12 Chapter 5 Asia-Pacific Page 29 Chapter 5 Asia-Pacific Japan Japan s attitude to engine boosting more closely resembles that of North America, with more emphasis on performance than economy cars like Subaru s turbocharged Impreza or the twin-turbo Toyota Supra are good examples. Demand in Japan in 2005 is estimated to have been around x.xm turbochargers for passenger car applications, with a further xxx,xxx units consumed by the commercial vehicle industry. Japan s domestic auto industry assembled x.xm cars in 2004, of which x.xm or nearly xx% were exported. Of the overall total, less than x% of production vehicles were fitted with a diesel engine. Unique to Japan is the segment of mini-cars, with turbocharged gasoline engines with displacements of xxxcc or less. These cars attract significant tax breaks from the Japanese government, and in 2004, over x.xm units were produced, accounting for some xx% of total production in Japan. IHI and MHI are the primary suppliers here, although BorgWarner and Honeywell are also active. In all segments, Japanese turbocharger demand has been relatively stable over the last five years, even somewhat flat as has vehicle production generally. There has been a small trend away from larger engines towards smaller ones, stimulating some demand for turbocharging technology to improve power density. Expectations are that demand will increase in line with Japan s domestic carmakers requirements to build cars and engines for export that must meet foreign market requirements. However, that expectation must be tempered against the very low number of diesels produced in Japan only around xxx,xxx units. There is also the fact that as Japan s carmakers expand their presence in Europe and North America, Toyota in particular is making strides towards

13 Chapter 6 Supercharger what is it and how does it work? Page 32 Chapter 6 Supercharger what is it and how does it work? A supercharger is similar in function to a turbocharger, as a positive displacement device. Air is taken in from outside and compressed through the supercharger, then forced into the engine cylinders, to provide increased pressure and oxygen supply, in turn generating more efficient and complete combustion, increasing power and torque and improving fuel economy. Unlike turbochargers, which are powered by re-circulated exhaust gases, a supercharger is mechanically linked via a belt to the engine crankshaft. Because of this, a supercharger begins operating as soon as the engine is turning, meaning that there is, effectively, no boost threshold or boost lag. A supercharger can provide peak boost from around x,xxxrpm, the speed at which a turbocharger begins to provide boost. On the downside, the parasitic drain of a supercharger on the engine is significantly greater than a turbocharger, as the former is larger and heavier and, therefore, having greater inertia but also due to the efficiency losses of a belt-driven system compared to an air pressure driven boost. In addition, a turbocharger recycles energy from the exhaust system that is otherwise lost through the tailpipe, making it a highly efficient engineering solution. On the other hand, a supercharger steals energy from the engine output, giving it an inherent efficiency disadvantage compared to a turbocharger. Almost all superchargers used in light passenger vehicles today are Roots type superchargers, which have no internal compression. These are less energy efficient than the other types of supercharger twin-screw and centrifugal types but is considerably more cost effective for volume application.

14 Chapter 7 Europe Page 35 Chapter 7 Europe Twincharger A big breakthrough in the European market for superchargers came in 2005, when Volkswagen premiered its new x.xl twincharger gasoline engine at the Frankfurt Motor Show. This system uses a single stage fixed geometry turbocharger in combination with a supercharger. Eaton supplies the supercharger from a facility in Poland. Output is currently expected at around xxx,xxx units per year and Eaton expects to double production at the plant by The Twincharger project alone represented an increase of almost xx% in the global output of superchargers for passenger cars. The innovation was driven by continuing downsizing requirements in the European market. In a drive to reduce emissions to meet EURO IV and EURO V targets, European carmakers are looking for ways to reduce engine size and, therefore, fuel consumption without sacrificing power. Alternatively, it is possible to boost power without compromising fuel consumption requirements. The engine outputs xx% more power and xx% more torque than Volkswagen s normally aspirated 2.0L GDI engine. At the same time, the Twincharger engine uses around x% less fuel than the larger engine. DaimlerChrysler s Mercedes-Benz brand in Europe has used an Eaton supercharger in its M111 and M271 engine since the mid-1990s. This x.xl four-cylinder gasoline engine is fitted to the C-class and E-class sedans and the SLK roadster and is xxx% supercharged. If you compare it to other engines in the market space and size range, it is a phenomenal engine, says Craig Sell, engineering director, Eaton. It even meets the [EURO V] 2007 requirements [on emissions and CO2]. BMW s top-of-the-range Mini, the Cooper S, also uses a supercharged engine. Manufactured by Tritec Motors in Brazil, the x.xl i-4 gasoline engine uses an Eaton supercharger.

15 Chapter 8 North America Page 39 Chapter 8 North America High performance approach set to continue As noted elsewhere in this report, North America, despite its recent energy worries, has not yet experienced serious pressure on vehicle engine technology to reduce fuel consumption. American car buyers, in general, also like to have a relatively large amount of power in their engines and, to a huge degree, want gasoline to be the fuel that goes in their tank. As such, the cultural connection between superchargers and very high performance cars shows no signs of weakening. The idea that a supercharged engine could be a smaller, fuel-sipping invention seems a long way from taking root in American automotive consciousness. Volumes are currently around xx,xxx per year and look set to stay around that level for the foreseeable future. However, the next five years could well see such an outlook change. If America continues to experience periodic or even sustained energy price spikes, politicians and think-tanks will increase pressure on automotive manufacturers to help alleviate the problem by bringing down the amount of gasoline the average American uses driving around in his or her daily life. Certainly, with current Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) levels around xxmpg for passenger cars and xxmpg for pickups and large SUVS, the potential for engine boosting to deliver measurable returns is there. Superchargers appear to be a relatively easy fit to the larger engines (x.xl/xxxhp upward) commonly found in North America, as their efficiency losses are proportionally less significant and packaging requirements less stringent. However, alternative technologies such as displacement on demand where one bank of cylinders in a V-engine can be shut off when not required (eg in motorway driving), currently seem to be the path taken to begin to reduce American automotive fuel consumption.

16 Chapter 9 Turbocharger and supercharger market trends and forecasts to 2012 Page 42 Chapter 9 Turbocharger and supercharger market trends and forecasts to 2012 Table 1: Global demand for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and commercial vehicles e (units ms) e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e Europe xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x Americas x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x Japan/Asia x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x Other x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x x.x Global xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x Source: Suppliers, just-auto estimates Table 2: Global market value for turbochargers, passenger vehicles (diesel and gasoline) and commercial vehicles e (US$m) e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e Europe x.xxx x.xxx x.xxx x.xxx x.xxx x.xxx x.xxx x.xxx Americas xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx x xxx Japan/Asia xxx xxx xxx xxx x.xxx x.xxx x.xxx x.xxx Other xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx Global x.xxxx x.xxxx x.xxxx x.xxxx x.xxxx x.xxxx x.xxxx x.xxxx Source: Suppliers, just-auto estimates

17 Chapter 10 Supplier market shares Page 45 Chapter 10 Supplier market shares Global market in 2005 In 2005, total automotive turbocharger production was estimated to have been around xx.xm units. Of that total, some xx.xm were for light passenger vehicle engines including both gasoline and diesel engines. The global turbocharger market is dominated by Honeywell (xx%) and BorgWarner (xx%) who between them share about xx% of the total market. Japanese companies Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) are the next biggest competitors on the world stage. IHI holds about xx% of the total market including commercial vehicle applications while MHI produces about one million turbochargers per year, representing around x% share. Crude calculations suggest the average price of an automotive turbocharger in 2004 was around US$xxx. Figure 5: Percentage share of global turbocharger production 2005e x% x% x% xx% xx% xxxxx xxxxx xxx xxi xxxxx Source: just-auto estimates Other companies, including Holset, account for the remaining global production of turbochargers.

18 Chapter 11 Supplier profiles Page 50 Chapter 11 Supplier profiles BorgWarner Market position/share in turbochargers BorgWarner holds xx% of the overall global market for turbochargers for light passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles. Based on total global turbocharger demand of around xx.xm units in 2005, BorgWarner produced around x.xm turbochargers. According to just-auto estimates, this level of production places BorgWarner second, globally, behind Honeywell Turbo in terms of units produced. Financial position with regard to turbos, in context of total Turbocharger operations fall under BorgWarner s reporting segment of Engine Products which had 2004 sales of US$x.xxbn, an increase of nearly xx% over the previous year. just-auto estimates that, of that total, turbocharger sales accounted for around US$x.xbn in 2004, equal to aroundxx% of the company s total net sales for the year. Corporate strategy in turbochargers BorgWarner has made technology leadership a central part of its turbocharger strategy. The company counts a number of firsts in turbocharging in the past few years: The world s first turbocharger for a GDI engine the VW Group s x.xl T- FSI engine The world s first regulated two-stage turbocharger system on BMW s x.xl i-6 diesel engine Variable turbocharger for the world s smallest i-4 diesel engine General Motors x.xl CDTI engine First variable turbocharger for a gasoline engine to be introduced on a Porsche engine in late 2006

19 Chapter 12 Outlook and roadmap for engine boosting to 2011 turbochargers and superchargers Page 62 Chapter 12 Outlook and roadmap for engine boosting to 2011 turbochargers and superchargers Turbodiesel Europe has seen truly impressive growth rates over the past decade as far as turbocharger suppliers are concerned. Advances in diesel engine technology and Europe s leading role in making personal transportation more environmentally acceptable, have led to an explosion in demand for turbochargers. Global annual volumes for light passenger vehicle turbos have risen from underx.xm in 1995 to nearly x.xm in But the diesel boom in Europe may be close to a peak saw a considerable drop-off in growth compared to the preceding five years as diesel hit the statistically significant xx% mark in Europe. Honeywell estimates the high-tide mark for diesel penetration could be around xx% in Demand on an annual basis will be sustained at high levels compared to the pre-1995 era, at around xm-x.xm units for passenger cars, as well as some two million units for commercial vehicles. But the market for turbochargers for diesel engines in Europe is likely to be flattening out, meaning that new business will have to be won from existing competition, rather than through organic or incremental growth. The implications in the turbocharger market for diesel engines are likely to be similar to any saturated market with a high level of consolidation in the supply base; even greater pressure on prices than is already the case; increasingly slender margins of difference between winning and losing big contracts; and, ultimately, an amount of commoditisation of the products concerned. Concurrently, increasing emissions standards and OEM requirements for added-value will compel continued development of more capable turbos, such as next-generation variable turbos and regulated two-stage (R2S) systems. The onus will be on turbo suppliers to refine processes, transfer production of

20 Chapter 13 Outlook and roadmap for engine boosting to 2011 turbochargers and superchargers Page 1 Chapter 13 Outlook and roadmap for engine boosting to 2011 turbochargers and superchargers Turbodiesel Europe has seen truly impressive growth rates over the past decade as far as turbocharger suppliers are concerned. Advances in diesel engine technology and Europe s leading role in making personal transportation more environmentally acceptable, have led to an explosion in demand for turbochargers. Global annual volumes for light passenger vehicle turbos have risen from under x.xm in 1995 to nearly xxm in But the diesel boom in Europe may be close to a peak saw a considerable drop-off in growth compared to the preceding five years as diesel hit the statistically significant xx% mark in Europe. Honeywell estimates the high-tide mark for diesel penetration could be around xx% in Demand on an annual basis will be sustained at high levels compared to the pre-1995 era, at around xm-x.xm units for passenger cars, as well as some two million units for commercial vehicles. But the market for turbochargers for diesel engines in Europe is likely to be flattening out, meaning that new business will have to be won from existing competition, rather than through organic or incremental growth. The implications in the turbocharger market for diesel engines are likely to be similar to any saturated market with a high level of consolidation in the supply base; even greater pressure on prices than is already the case; increasingly slender margins of difference between winning and losing big contracts; and, ultimately, an amount of commoditisation of the products concerned. Concurrently, increasing emissions standards and OEM requirements for added-value will compel continued development of more capable turbos, such as next-generation variable turbos and regulated two-stage (R2S) systems. The onus will be on turbo suppliers to refine processes, transfer production of