Changing Pillars of Profitability: Viable Substitutes for Mid- and Full-Size SUVs. Rebecca A. Lindland Associate Director, North America Sales

Transcription

1 Changing Pillars of Profitability: Viable Substitutes for Mid- and Full-Size SUVs Rebecca A. Lindland Associate Director, North America Sales

2 Pillars of Profitability: Where Has Profit Traditionally Come From? Traditionally, full size pickups and mid- and fullsize SUVs (including premium) have been the pillars of profitability for the Big 3 It is not unusual for these 3 categories of products to comprise the vast majority of the total product profitability of the Big 3 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 2

3 Sales of Big 3 F/S SUVs and Pickups This formula contributed significantly to the bottom line of the Big 3 from (in millions) FULL SIZE PICKUPS FULL SIZE/PREM SUV MID SIZE SUV Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 3

4 Forecast of Sales of Big 3 F/S SUVs and Pickups The pillars are becoming smaller and smaller, losing nearly a million units from 2005 to 2011 half of that is lost from 2005 to (in millions) FULL SIZE PICKUPS FULL SIZE/PREM SUV MID SIZE SUV Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 4

5 That s The Bad News For Pickups. What s the Good News? We think F/S pickups will prove to be more resilient than some presently believe A large percentage of pickup buyers have some need for the real capabilities of the vehicle The Great American Single Male or Female views the full-size pickup as the ultimate pick up vehicle It is the quintessential American vehicle Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 5

6 Forecast of Sales of Full Size Pickups from Pickup sales for the Big 3 grew substantially from 1995 to 1996 and again in 2004 and 2005 Competition from Toyota Tundra and Nissan Titan cuts into further growth, but overall the forecast settles at 2.25 million units (in millions) GM FORD CHRYSLER TOYOTA NISSAN Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 6

7 What About Mid-, Full-Size and Premium SUVs? Mid-, full-size and premium SUV sales have suffered this year Consumers can move out of mid- and full-size SUVs and into CUVs more easily than pickup buyers Gas prices, changing consumer preferences, and improvements in styling and functionality of crossovers have accounted for declines in SUV sales Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 7

8 Forecast of Big 3 Sales of Mid-, Full-Size and Premium SUVs from The peak of sales in 2002 was 2.2 million units, led for the most part by mid SUVs We are expecting volume to decline to about 1 million units for the Big 3 by 2011 (in millions) MID SUV FULL SIZE SUV PREMIUM SUV Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 8

9 That s the Bad News for SUVs. What s the Good News? Consumers really don t want to give up their SUVs. They just want them to be more efficient, refined, and comfortable This opens up the potential for: Significantly more refined SUVs Large, capable crossovers (CUVs) Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 9

10 700, , , , , , ,000 Forecast of Big 3 Sales of Mid-, Full-Size and Premium CUVs from GM debuted the Aztek and Rendezvous in The Aztek ended in 2005 and the Rendezvous ends production in 2007 GM and Ford both are heavily expanding their CUV lineups in 2007 Chrysler only has entry CUVs (Jeep Patriot, upcoming Chrysler CUV) MID CUV LARGE CUV MID PREMIUM CUV LARGE PREMIUM CUV Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 10

11 Some Other Concepts Could Provide Pillars of Profitability CUV pickups like the Honda Ridgeline or Dodge Rampage concept This is the ideal pickup for someone who does not need a pickup A segment with lots of potential beyond the Ridgeline, but the Big 3 need to take the same risk and bump up the macho factor Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 11

12 Cars Should Not Be Left Out of the Profitability Picture It doesn t have to be all about trucks, though Large, rearwheel-drive American cars with attitude might just be the savior of the American passenger car business RWD proportions Expressive, heritage-driven design Wide choice of power trains (V6, V8, special editions) Chevy, Ford, and Dodge enthusiasts, having suffered through 25 years of bad copies of Japanese cars, are primed for the return of these cars Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 12

13 That Thing Got a Hemi? or a Small Block? or a Hybrid? Chrysler Group s Hemi engine has revitalized the Dodge brand, even with today s high gas prices thanks to displacement on demand, the Hemi delivers pretty terrific highway fuel economy Dodge Magnum R/T w/awd Hemi V8 5.7 liter/345 cu. in. 340 HP Chevrolet Impala SS V8 5.3 liter 325 cu. in. 303HP (no AWD though) Toyota Highlander Hybrid w/awd V6 3.3 liter/201 cu. in. 268 HP 24 MPG $32, MPG $26, MPG $39,290 Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 13

14 Conclusions GM, Ford, and Chrysler s balance sheets are under tremendous pressure with the traditional sources of revenue shrinking But, the American consumer is not going to give up SUVs, CUVs, or pickups without a fight Concepts such as the combo CUV pickup, aggressively styled crossovers, polished SUVs and cars with swagger all have a place in the market Powertrain technology can address some of the fuel efficiency concerns The Big 3 need to emphasize heritage and distinctively American styling and performance to win consumers into showrooms Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 14

15 Thank You Rebecca A. Lindland Associate Director, North America