Systems Analysis of Personal Transportation Needs and Environmental Implications in the People s Republic of China

Transcription

1 Systems Analysis of Personal Transportation Needs and Environmental Implications in the People s Republic of China Karolin Kokaz, Dr. Bingjiang Liu, Prof. Peter Rogers Harvard University

2 Presentation Outline Spreadsheet Vehicular Air Pollution Information System Motivation for the Optimization Model The Optimization Model - Urban Transportation Planning for Air Quality Management

3 Purpose Automobile emissions are the most rapidly growing source of urban air pollution in most Chinese cities. Evaluate strategies and policies for guiding the development of Beijing s transportation sector. Determine the impact of economic policies and environmental regulations on future technology choices. Analyze the technological and traffic demand and supply options available to China (Beijing) to reduce vehicular pollution. Develop a mathematical model that will give the optimal transportation mix to meet the turnover, environmental goals, and other constraints through a variety of policy options at the minimum cost.

4 Transportation Sector in China Rapid rate of motorization (both number of passenger trips and distance of passenger trips increased) Outdated vehicle technologies and high emissions characteristics Inadequate road infrastructure Land use structure Mix of transportation modes Policies regarding transportation modes

5 China Beijing 25 NGV (), SEPA 1997: 46 CNG and 13 LPG Projects for 15, LPG and 3-5 electric vehicles by 2 US and China joint venture for electric bicycle, three wheel bicycle, scooters, and motorcycles Ban lead: July 1, 2 New cars will have electric fuel injection and catalytic converters Euro I: January 1, 2 Ban lead: July 1, 1997 Euro I since January 1, 1999 Euro II: July 1, 2 Beijing government plans to meet Class 2 air quality standards by 22 Reduce sulfur level of gasoline and diesel Retirement age of vehicles Convert 6 taxis and 6, cars to LPG and CNG

6 Beijing New housing

7 Beijing Subway & Light Rail

8 GDP vs Total # of Vehicles and # of in Beijing 1,2, 25 total # of vehicles and # of cars 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, billion $ NV GDP Vehicle Emissions Growth vs GDP Growth from 199 to 1997 in Beijing 2. Base Year: 199 = CO CO2 HC year NOx SO2 TSP year NV growth rates growth rates % 1.2% % 6.96% 5.68% 9.42% % 21.68% % 7.3% 16.73% 32.32% % 29.5% % 29.5% fractio nal increas e in GDP

9 Beijing is developing its suburbanization and decentralization, which will increase the passenger kilometers traveled 14 Population, million Population in rural area Population in suburban area Population in core city Source: Beijing s Master Plan, 1993.

10 Primarily due to past settlement patterns, the relatively short trips, and government policy to promote bicycle use, Beijing s transportation heavily relies on buses and bicycles. However, Beijing is beginning to experience a rapid rate of motorization, and most of the recently increased trips come from automobiles. Percentage of Passenger Trips by Various Transportation Modes 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Private car Taxi Subway Bus Bicycle 1% %

11 Beijing is characterized by its low vehicle ownership and high pollution: Comparison of Beijing with four big cities Vehicle ownership, million London New York Paris Tokyo Beijing NO x concentration, µg/m 3 Data for Beijing is in. Others are in 199.

12 Share of Air Pollutant Emissions from the Mobile Sector CO HC NO x SO 2 PM Mexico, % 53.3% 7% 26.5% 4.3% Santiago, 94.2% 82.7% 84.6% 24% 11.5% São Paulo, 96.4% 9.9% 97.3% 85.5% 42.7% Rio de Janeiro, % 73.2% 69.6% 9.5% 3.5% Beijing, 63.4% 73.5% 21.7% Beijing, 86.2% 49.1% 1% Source: World Bank Report. Vehicular Air Pollution: Experience from Seven Latin American Urban Cities, Data in Beijing comes from the report titled China s Strategies for Controlling Motor Vehicle Emissions, 1997.

13 Historical Vehicle Growth in Beijing s No. of Vehicles

14 no. of vehicles % 8% 6% 4% 2% % Vehicle Growth in Beijing no. of vehicles Trend of % of Vehicles by Type in Beijing

15 Age Distribution of All Vehicles in Beijing (198-22) no. of vehicles year age

16 Vehicle Fleet Average HC Emission Factors Trend avg. emissions factors (g/km) Vehicle Fleet Average NOx Emission Factors Trend avg. emissions factors (g/km)

17 Vehicle Growth, Speed, Fuel Efficiency and Emission Factors for Vehicle Growth and Reduced Speeds Fuel Efficiency and Emission Factors vs Speed 8,, 7,, no of vehicles 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, velocity (km/hr) NV Speed EF (g/km) FE (km/lt) CO HC NOx FE 2,, 1,, year velocity (km/hr)

18 Speed Effect on Fuel Efficiencies and Emission Factors RA(t) = RA95+SUM(t,AM( ro,t) width) Speed(t) = [ ln(nv(t))+168.3] [RA(t)/RA95] (1+Σfri¹) (1±fhb 2 ) FEold(v,f,t) = FE95(v,f) [(1+imp 3 (v,f)/1) (ORD(t)-1) ] FEnew(v,t) = A(v) Speed(t).251 FE(v,f,t) = FEold(v,f,t) FEnew(t)/FEnew( ) EFs(p,v,f,t) = A(v,p,f) Speed(t) B(v,p,f) EF(p,v,f, avg,t) =E= [(SUM(f,EF(p,v,f,,t) NV(v,,f,t))+SUM((a,f),EF(p,v,f, avg,t-1) NV(v,a,f,t)))/(SUM((f,a),NV(v,a,f,t)))] EFs(p,v,f,t)/EFs(p,v,f, ); EF( SO 2,v,f, avg,t) =E= 2 scontent 4 density(f) 1/FE(v,f,t) EF( TSP,v,f, avg,t) =E= pcontent 4 density(f)/fe(v,f,t) 1 fri: fractional increase in speed from the use of control options 2 fhb: fractional increase/decrease in speed from the use of HOV and bus lanes 3 imp(v,f) annual fuel efficiency improvement rate 4 scontent is the % sulfur content of fuel f and pcontent is the g/kg particulates content of fuel f

19 UNREGULATED REGULATED CO Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing CO Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day tons/day CO Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day 198

20 UNREGULATED REGULATED HC Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing HC Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day tons/day HC Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day 198

21 Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in 22 CO Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) CO Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) 15% 1% 2% 14% 19% 4% 8% 1% 2% 4% 47% 2% 1% 8% Total = 1,627,111 tons/yr Total = 7,149,756 tons/yr HC Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) HC Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) 8% 3% 6% 1% 13% 1% 51% 5% 1% 2% 34% 59% 1% 6% Total = 235,24 tons/yr Total = 1,132,125 tons/yr

22 UNREGULATED REGULATED NOx Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing NOx Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day tons/day NOx Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day

23 UNREGULATED REGULATED TSP Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day TSP Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing TSP Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day tons/day

24 Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in 22 NOx Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) NOx Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) 36% % 5% 7% 7% 3% % 11% 24% 8% 6% 39% 48% 6% Total = 12,846 tons/yr Total = 29,54 tons/yr TSP Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) TSP Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) 61% 1% 4% 6% 9% 4% 15% 3% 28% 24% % 38% 5% 2% Total = 818 tons/yr Total = 2,342 tons/yr

25 UNREGULATED REGULATED SO2 Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day SO2 Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing SO2 Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day tons/day

26 UNREGULATED REGULATED CO2 Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day CO2 Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing CO2 Emissions from Vehicles in Beijing tons/day tons/day

27 Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in Percentage of Emissions by Vehicles in 22 CO2 Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) CO2 Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) 5% 12% 4% 13% 18% 41% 1% 2% 1% 5% 45% 3% 1% 4% Total = 9,922,926 tons/yr SO2 Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) Total = 6,153,968 tons/yr SO2 Emissions by Vehicle Type (tons/day) 3% 2% 9% 12% 5% 4% 9% 1% 48% 9% 33% 33% 2% 3% Total = 5,759 tons/yr Total = 26,232 tons/yr

28 VKT, No. of Vehicles, and Emissions Trend Index: 198 = 1 22 CO NOx SO2 HC TSP CO2 NV VKT

29 UNREGULATED REGULATED CO Concentration in Beijing City CO Concentration in Beijing City CO conc. CO std micrograms/m CO conc. CO std NOx Concentration in Beijing City NOx Concentration in Beijing City 3 25 NOx conc. NOx std NOx conc. NOx std micrograms/m 3 micrograms/m micrograms/m 3

30 UNREGULATED REGULATED TSP Concentration in Beijing City TSP Concentration in Beijing City 7 6 TSP conc. TSP std TSP conc. TSP std micrograms/m micrograms/m SO2 Concentration in Beijing City SO2 Concentration in Beijing City SO2 conc. SO2 std SO2 conc. SO2 std micrograms/m micrograms/m 3

31 Health Impacts of Mobile Sources Emissions in Beijing DRC Cases Cost/Case Total Cost Cases Cost/Case Total Cost Cases Cost/Case Total Cost US $ US $ million US $ US $ million US $ US $ million PM Premature mortality(/1million) RHA (/1,) ERV (/1,) RAD in adults (/adult) LRI in children(/child) Asthma attacks(/asthmatic) RS in adults(/adult) Chronic bronchitis(/1,) Subtotal SO 2 Premature mortality(/1million) RS in children(/1children) Chest discomfort in adults(/adult) Subtotal TOTAL RHA: respiratory hospital visits, ERV: emergency room visits, RAD: restricted activity days, LRI: lower respiratory illnesses, RS: respiratory symptoms.

32 Value of Time and Fuel Costs of Commuting & Health Costs of Mobile Sources Emissions in Beijing million $ 2 22 Value of Time , Fuel Costs , ,59.85 Health Costs , , Also should include accidents costs, and agricultural and materials damages from air pollution. Costs under Different 22 Scenarios for Beijing At 6 km/hr At 16km/hr With Tokyo's pass-trip mix million $ Value of Time 19, , , Fuel Cost 19, , , Health Costs 15, ,794. 8, Total 54, , ,146.47

33 MATHEMATICAL MODEL Include all modes of transportation Include different types of fuels and technologies for each mode Include investment opportunities in infrastructure for all transportation modes Include different control options

34 TRANSPORTATION MODES FOR BEIJING ethanol gasoline diesel natural gas LPG Motor Vehicles - gasoline electric methanol fuel cells hybrid ethanol gasoline diesel methanol electric - diesel gasoline natural gas hybrid Tricycles HDV electric methanol electric natural gas ethanol Light Rail - electric Subway - electric Walk LPG gasoline diesel hybrid Bicycle

35 Energy Use per Km and per Passenger-Km for Different Transportation Modes in Beijing () Light-Rail Subway MJ/pass-km MJ/km

36 Emissions/Passenger-km for Different Modes of Transportation in Beijing emissions/pass-km (g/pass-km) year CO NOx SO 2 HC TSP CO 2 cars taxis buses All CO Emissions Per Passenger Km () buses 1.9 taxis cars g/pass-km

37 Pollution Control Options for The Transportation Sector Technology options (such as new vehicle emission standards, fuel reformulation, alternative fuels) alone are not enough - standards will still be exceeded Infrastructure investments (build roads and develop infrastructure to sustain the growth in transportation) - road area in Beijing is 6.1% whereas in other developed cities goes up to 3% Traffic management options to reduce congestion and increase speeds (a set of transportation system improvements such as arranging the traffic flow direction, and installation and better coordination of traffic signals) Employer based controls such as giving transit passes, arranging telecommuting programs, providing ride-matching information and services, and modified work schedules Enhanced I/M and accelerated vehicle retirement programs Improve public transit as a good alternative for the commuters and also by options such as parking management and road fees discourage extensive use of cars Environmental education and awareness programs Land use management

38 Control Options To Be Considered in The Model Incentive related and educational policy options: education and driver behavior ride sharing telecommuting TDM measures I/M programs traffic management parking management provide HOV and bus lanes Technical policy options engine designs improve fuel quality catalytic converters fuel switching decrease scrappage rate infrastructure investments increase transit services Pricing Measures: tax measures subsidize transit services subsidize clean fuels

39 MAX NET BENEFITS = st Value of Time, Health and Materials Damages - Costs from Vehicular Air Pollution air quality standards total emission limits demand constraint (pass-km) budget constraint fuel capacity limits logical constraints MIN st TOTAL COSTS air quality standards total emission limits demand constraint (pass-km) budget constraint fuel capacity limits logical constraints Accounting on Value of Time, Health and Materials Damages Look at results of $, Health, Time, and Other Damages. Agree on Policy Change Constraints

40 Total Costs = Costs of Implementing a Package of Policy Options repairs, maintenance, tires, oil, parking costs ownership costs (insurance, license, registration, taxes, depreciation, finance charge) = Fuel Costs + Cost of Vehicle + Infrastructure Investments + Other Operations and Maintenance Costs = present value of all annualized costs Technology options Fuel options Management options Legislative options Incentive related and educational options Pricing measures For example for rail: Capital expenditure for electrification Signals and train control facilities Per mile road bed trackage costs Terminal costs Operations and maintenance costs Construction costs Land costs + cost from switching fuel & cost of control options utilized cost of fuel savings For example: lifetime for highways may be assumed to be 35 years and for railroads 5 years.

41 CONSTRAINTS Sum of demand (pass-km) by each mode (t) Turnover projections (t) Annualized Infrastructure Investment Costs + Public Transport Vehicle Costs and their O&M costs + Costs of Control Options + Subsidies Taxes Budget for each year allocated to the transportation sector Total Emissions (taking into consideration the reductions resulting from the use of different policy options) Air Quality Limits Concentration of Each Pollutant (as a function of emissions) Air Quality Standards Logical Constraints (example: sum of fraction of vehicle v using option oo equals 1) Age distribution, emission factors calculation, fuel efficiencies, calculation of electricity use by electric vehicle v, speeds, fuel consumption, # of vehicles in each year, infrastructure construction, and utilization of control options Bounds on vehicle numbers for different types & fuel switching option for vehicles Calculation of fractional reduction of commute time from investments into infrastructure (keeping in mind the increase in the total # of vehicles) Fuel Capacity Limits (example: Total use of NG in transportation sector in year i Total available NG supply for the transportation sector for that year) Social Cost Equation ($) = Value of Time + Health Impacts of Air Pollution + Materials Damages from Air Pollution In traffic time each hour may be assumed to be worth 5% of your wage Increase in concentration of pollutants due to mobile sources emissions result in health and materials damages.

42 Types of Results from The Model Optimization of urban transportation systems for minimum overall cost and least environmental damage meeting all economic, technical, and policy constraints will yield the following information: Obtain trade-off curves for cost, emissions, and pass-km demand Average vehicle emission factors, fuel efficiencies, vehicle population (type, age, fuel), land use patterns, fuel consumption Breakdown of turnover (% of pass-km demand and VKT being satisfied by each mode) Cost breakdown (%) of the optimal system over the model time horizon: vehicle costs, O&M costs, fuel costs, infrastructure investments, fuel switching costs, costs of control options utilized Investment into different control options each year % of fuel switching of vehicle v from fuel type f to f1 and extent of control options utilized each year and over the total model time horizon Total emissions of pollutant p from mobile sources exhaust emissions from each vehicle type v Resulting concentrations from these emissions and health impacts Social costs: health and materials damages from air pollution caused by vehicle emissions and value of time spent in traffic Energy consumption by each mode Shadow prices of constraints Vehicle growth rates, mode choice, road area, number of vehicles per km of road, average road speeds

43 Turnover demand Non- Motorized Vehicles Passenger-kilometer travel (PKT) Motorized Vehicles Roadway Railway walk bicycle others motorcycle taxi car bus light rail subway Transport mode Electricity Diesel Gas Diesel NG LPG Electric Fuel availability Local air amelioration Methanol others Air amelioration Social benefits Reduced health and materials damage, and time savings Capital cost Vehicle cost Depreciation O&M cost Ownership costs Pollution control Others Maximize benefits Minimize total annualized costs Fuel cost Local air amelioration Emission caps Emission caps Other requirements Constraints Traffic congestion Other constraints Other costs Budget constraints Logical limits The transportation system should emphasize the movement of people, not vehicles.

44 ADVANTAGES Simulation vs Optimization Extensive list of control options Passenger-km demand as the driving force Time frame (annual) evaluation - not one step future Valuation of future costs and accounting on social costs User friendly design at the fingertips of the decision maker Visual representation of final optimal set of options (GIS)