Back to the Future? Land Use, Mobility & Accessibility in Metropolitan China Day 23 C. Zegras. Contents

Transcription

1 Back to the Future? Land Use, Mobility & Accessibility in Metropolitan China Day 23 C. Zegras Contents Remember the Developing World..? Motorization! China: Motorization and its Challenges Land Development: Patterns and Forces The End of Jobs-Housing Balance? Shanghai and Rail Transit Introduction to the Final Assignment 1

2 Motorization Income and per capita motor vehicle fleets At national level, 9% At the urban level, 8% Still considerable variation, due to Population densities, urbanization levels, vehicle production (national industrial policy), vehicle prices, etc. Particularly at urban level China Average travel rate: 1 kilometers/year Europe: 15, US: 24, Motorization Approximately 9 cars per 1 persons National car sales growing by ~7% per year in 2s National car manufacturing growing by ~8 percent per year. 2

3 Dynamic Motorization: Auto/Light Truck Fleets 1 Cars and Personal Light Trucks - SUVs / 1 People $1, $1, United States ( ) China ( ) Korea ( ) Japan ( ) W. Germany ( ) $1, GDP/ Capita, 199 USD ( PPP) Figure by MIT OCW. W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 25. Dynamic Motorization Concerns: Oil Consumption 3 Millions of Tons of Oil Equix Consumption Production Exports Figure by MIT OCW. W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 25. 3

4 Dynamic Motorization Concerns: Air Pollution City CO (%) HC (%) NOx (%) Beijing (2) Shanghai (2) Guangzhou (2) W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 25. Dynamic Motorization Concerns: Air Pollution City CO (%) HC (%) NOx (%) Beijing (2) Shanghai (2) Guangzhou (2) W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 25. 4

5 Dynamic Motorization Concerns: Accidents? NAE, CAE, NRC, 23. Dynamic Motorization/Urbanization Concerns: Other? 5

6 China s Automobile Industry Now world s third largest automobile producer Pillar of national economic development plans since 1988 In 24, China enacted fuel economy standards that are stricter than US standards Uncertainties over future vehicle demand composition i.e., will the trend towards larger, heavier vehicles (SUVs) prevail? Motor vehicle emission standards now exist Euro II-equivalent standards already implemented in Shanghai and Beijing W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 25. Motor Vehicle Projections Millions of Car s NAS-1 % GDP Growth NAS-8 % GDP Growth NAS-6 % GDP Growth WRI-Baseline WRI-Oil Taxes WRI-Integrated W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 25; NAE, CAE, NRC, 23. 6

7 Dynamic Metropolitan-ization: Government Responses One Main Issue: Excessive Density National Development Standards Require more parking, wider streets, higher per capita living space Density Guidelines: 1, 12,5 persons per square km Infrastructure guidelines, road coverage : 8-15% for smaller cities; 15-2% for larger cities Averages, including parallel 2-wheeler streets, parking and pedestrian facilities NAE, CAE, NRC, 23. Dynamic Metropolitan-ization: Government Responses Another Main Issue: Privatization Municipalities allowed to acquire land and lease land (conveyance fees) 4 (commercial), 5 (ind.), 7 (resid.) year terms lump sum, up-front payments Huge source of local government revenues Municipalities also collect taxes on land Expropriation Rural compensation lower than urban Break up of the work unit model 7

8 Time and NMT Share: Commuting Moving Patterns Number of workers Commute time Nonmotorized transport Share of nonmotorized travel Within sub-districts % Beyond subdistricts Beyond District % Total % Parallel % Inward % Outward % Yang, 25. 8

9 Commute Time = f (?) B Std. Beta T-Stat Sign. (Constant) Private_motor Workunit_bus Walk Bicycle Worker> Reluctant Affirmative Income Beyond_subdistrict Beyond_district Move_inward Move_outward R2 =.261 Yang, 25. Interpretations & Implications? 9

10 Dynamic Metropolitan-ization: Impacts Decentralizing forces Land cheaper on fringe Rural conversion generates more revenues for municipalities Growing demand for campus -like settings Government promotion of the concentrated dispersion model 1

11 Shanghai During 199s, MV fleet grew by 3,-5, vehicles per year. Average density in the range 14,-4, persons per sq. km NY Metro Area: 4,5 Recent Years Massive infrastructure invesments $1 bn b/w : bridges, tunnel, inner ring road, first subway line 2 development plan 2 kms of rail, 6 BRT corridors; 52 kms of new highways NAE, CAE, NRC, 23. Motorization Management Various vehicle restrictions in place Freight place and time restrictions High registration fees ($2,5) and purchase taxes (1%) for private cars Cap of 5, new vehicle registrations per year (as of 1998) Bans/restrictions on many motorized two-wheelers Also, bans on bicycles in some parts of city Motorization Rate ~4 to 6 private vehicles per 1 persons 11

12 Shanghai Socioeconomics & Demographics Average personal incomes increasingly rapidly Growing income disparity Still significant low-income population, including floating pop. Larger than national average share of over 65 Current population growth (official).42% per year million by 22 Evolution in Income Distribution Income Distribution a nd b e l o w 2~3 3 ~4 4~5 5 ~6 6~7 7 ~8 8~9 9~1 1 ~2 2 ~ Zhao,

13 Age Distribution Age Distribution in year Male Female Zhao, 23. Trip Rate: Estimated and Expected (Average Daily Trips/Capita) Zhao,

14 Shanghai: Mode Share Evolution 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Walki ng and Bicycle Public Transport Motorized private 3% 2% 1% % ITDP, 25. Public Transport Mode Shares Ferry 4% Taxi 19% Subway 7% Bus 7% Zhao,

15 Shanghai Urban Development Strategy Monocentricity to polycentricity Plan for five levels of hierarchical urban structure CBD, Sub-Centers, Specialized Centers, District Centers, Community Centers Aim to follow rail Rail Transit Network and Centers/Sub-Centers 15

16 Per Capita Living Area person m2/ Zhao, 23. Rail Transit: Achieving its Aims? 16

17 Rail Transit: Ridership Effects Trip Purposes Year Work School Personal Business Shopping Recreational Other 2 2.4% 6.6% 3.3% 26.8% 3.5% 12.5% % 3.8% 4.7% 33.9% 17.4% 15.6% % 5.2% 1.9% 28.6% 9.4% 9.4% Pan and Zhang, 25. Rail Transit: Ridership Effects Mode Choice 7% 6% Before Current 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Metro Bus Car Walk Bicyc le Pow ered Motorcycle Other Bicycle Pan and Zhang,

18 Rail Transit Effects: Trip Times Pan and Zhang, 25. Rail Transit Effects: Trip Distribution Pan and Zhang,

19 Rail Transit Effects: Development R Average FA Inner Buffer Outer Buffer Inner Buffer Outer Buffer Inner Buffer Outer Buffer Metro Line-1 Metro Line-2 Metro Line-3 Pan and Zhang, 25. Figure 9 Changes in Land Use Composition an Development Intensity in Xin-Zhuang Station, Shanghai (See Figure 6 for land use and intensity keys) Rail Transit Impacts: Land Use Changes at Xin-Zhuang Station Pan and Zhang,

20 Rail Transit Impacts: Problems with Analysis? 2