Continental Mobility Study Klaus Sommer Hanover, December 15, 2011

Transcription

1 Klaus Sommer Hanover, December 15, 2011

2 Content International requirements and expectations for E-Mobility Urbanization What are the challenges of individual mobility for international megacities? What are the visions of urban planners for sustainable mobility? Which policy measures will promote the implementation of E-Mobility? Usage Patterns Who uses the car and how? Are there regional differences in driving patterns? How much time do people spend in traffic jams? What are the requirements for hybrid and electric vehicles? Customer Expectations Who expects what from a car? How to differentiate customer preferences by regions, car segments, driver age or vehicle manufacturer? How is mobility changing and what are the chances of new business models? 2 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

3 Regional Coverage 4 Countries and 10 Megacities France Paris Berlin Hamburg USA Los Angeles Moscow China Beijing Bangkok Delhi São Paulo Singapore Telephone interviews (1,000 per country) Online interviews young adults (500 per megacity) Interviews with experts 3 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

4 Core themes of the study 1. D. Market sentiment 2. A. Passenger car usage patterns 3. B. Awareness and knowledge 4. B. Expectations/consumer acceptance 5. C. Comparison of potential buyers 6. B. A look into the future 7. C. Summary and outlook 4 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

5 Customer View of Cars and Driving A car is important, but status is something different USA France China It is important for me to have my own car Driving a car is fun It is important for me to have a car that others view highly Main users of a car Top boxes Data given in percent 5 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

6 Evaluation of the Importance of Alternative Drives Range important for majority, customers further than manufacturers? USA France China It would bother me a great deal if I had to recharge or refuel my car every 150 kilometers Some manufacturers missed the development of alternative engines It will be a long time before alternative drive technology really matures I would rather drive an electric car than a car with conventional propulsion already today In 15 years, the majority of cars will be electrically powered The improvement of diesel or gasoline engines is more useful than progress in alternative drive systems such as electric motors Main users of a car Only respondents who know about hybrid or electric engines Top boxes Data given in percent 6 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

7 Willingness to Help Protect the Environment Majority feel they are informed about climate change USA France China I will change my behavior only when others do something as well. I feel that I am well informed about climate change and the possible effects. I am prepared to spend more on products if they are more environmentally friendly. Main users of a car Top boxes Data given in percent 7 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

8 Importance of Owning a Car in Megacities Higher in Asian and American megacities Owning my own car is very important to me. In my circle of friends it is important to own a great car. In my family everyone travels mainly by car Berlin Hamburg Paris Moscow Los Angeles São Paulo Delhi Singapore Beijing Bangkok Young adults (18 to 35 years) Average values on a scale of 1 = "completely true" to 6 = "not at all true" 8 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

9 Importance of the Car in Everyday Life Not important in all megacities The car is the most important means With my car, I can be flexible in Driving a car is fun. of transport in my everyday life. organizing my everyday life Berlin Hamburg Paris Moscow Los Angeles São Paulo Delhi Singapore Beijing Bangkok Young adults (18 to 35 years) Average values on a scale of 1 = "completely true" to 6 = "not at all true" 9 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

10 Future of Urban Traffic, Young Adults and Car Sharing Attractive for the majority Berlin 12 Hamburg 11 Paris 11 Moscow Interesting and I wouldn t need my own car anymore Interesting and I would probably give it a try Not interesting, as it is important for me to drive my own car Los Angeles Can t say São Paulo Delhi Singapore Beijing Bangkok Respondents 18 to 35 years old Data given in percent 10 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

11 Core themes of the study 1. D. Market sentiment 2. A. Passenger car usage patterns 3. B. Awareness and knowledge 4. B. Expectation and willingness to buy 5. C. Comparison of potential buyers 6. B. A look into the future 7. C. Summary and outlook 11 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

12 Daily Car Usage Patterns and USA Nine out of ten cars with less than 100 km per day USA 10 0 < 10 km >500 Secondary analysis Automobiles in private households Data given in percent 12 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

13 Where and How Long Are Cars Parked Between Trips? In and the US: long time at workplace Parking time At home 35% 2.5 h 40% 3.0 h When shopping 15% 1.0 h 20% 0.5 h At work During leasure activities 10% 14% 6.5 h 13% 7.0 h 2.0 h 16% 1.5 h Private errands 8% 9% 1.0 h 2.5 h Private transport Business errands 1 2% 0.5 h 2.0 h 8% 8% 3.0 h 2.0 h USA Secondary analysis Car routes on the survey day, without parking time and parking space at night Average parking time for cars in hours 13 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

14 Potential for Charging Stations The majority of cars have permanent parking spaces at home USA France China Permanent parking space with electric socket Permanent parking space without electric socket No permanent parking space Main users of a car Top boxes Data given in percent 14 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

15 Correlation Between Daily Routes and Range Anxiety Even those who drive only short distances have doubts It would bother me a lot if I had to charge or fuel my car every 150 km. all respondents daily routes > 60 km daily routes < 30 km USA France China Main users of a car Top boxes Data given in percent 15 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

16 Importance of Government Support Measures Expansion of infrastructure and financial incentives most important USA France China Expansion of public charging station network Tax breaks Bonuses and benefits Designation of special parking areas Utilization of special lanes Main users of a car; only survey participants familiar with a hybrid or electric drive Top boxes Data given in percent 16 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

17 Core themes of the study 1. D. Market sentiment 2. A. Passenger car usage patterns 3. B. Awareness and knowledge 4. B. Expectation and willingness to buy 5. C. Comparison of potential buyers 6. B. A look into the future 7. C. Summary and outlook 17 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

18 Spontaneous awareness of fuel-efficient drive types Chinese and Germans specify electric and hybrid more frequently USA France China Electric Diesel Gas Hybrids Gasoline, premium gasoline Solar Biodiesel Hydrogen Fuel cell Bioethanol Don't know any Main users of a car Data given in percent Multiple answers possible 18 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

19 Awareness of hybrid and electric cars - comparison between countries French drivers less well informed? Hybrid drive USA France China Without prompting With prompting After explanation Not at all Electric vehicle USA France China Main users of a car Data given in percent Several answers can be given 19 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

20 Safety Concerns Regarding Electric Cars High confidence in especially Safety concerns No safety concerns 91 USA France China Safety concerns due to short range electric shock defect in battery risk of fire low speed too quiet longer stopping distance Main users of a car; only survey participants familiar with a hybrid or electric drive Data given in percent Multiple answers possible 20 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

21 Core themes of the study 1. D. Market sentiment 2. A. Passenger car usage patterns 3. B. Awareness and knowledge 4. B. Expectation and willingness to buy 5. C. Comparison of potential buyers 6. B. A look into the future 7. C. Summary and outlook 21 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

22 Prerequisites for Purchasing a Hybrid or Electric Car Primarily price aspects USA France China Less expensive than a car with conventional propulsion Sufficient charging stations Longer range More environmentally friendly / energy-efficient technology At least as comfortable as a conventional car At least as safe as a conventional car Would by no means buy this sort of car Main users of a car; only survey participants familiar with a hybrid or electric drive Data given in percent Multiple answers possible 22 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

23 Willingness to Accept Limitations in Favor of e-mobility Compromises possible but real cars wanted When choosing a car with an alternative drive, are you in principle prepared to do without the following factors? USA France China Maximum speed Vehicle size Acceleration power Comfort Range Flexibility Reliability Safety I wouldn't do without anything Main users of a car; only survey participants familiar with a hybrid or electric engines Data given in percent Multiple answers possible 23 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

24 Willingness to Buy a Car with an Alternative Drive Majority of Chinese drivers are open-minded USA France China Intention to buy a hybrid car Intention to buy an electric car Intention to buy an electric car specifically for city traffic Main users of a car Data given in percent Figures for "probably" and "definitely responses 24 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

25 Expected Purchase Price and Costs for Hybrid Cars Majority of Germans and Chinese expect higher costs USA France China Expected purchase price for survey participants who are familiar with hybrid drives and are planning to buy a car Lower Same Higher Main users of a car; only survey participants familiar with a hybrid car and planning to buy a car Data given in percent 25 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

26 Expected cost prices for electric cars Customers prepared for higher costs? USA France China Expected purchase price for survey participants who know about electric drives and are planning to buy a car Lower Same Higher Main users of a car; only survey participants who expect lower costs for purchasing a hybrid car Data given in percent 26 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

27 Core themes of the study 1. Market sentiment 2. Passenger car usage patterns 3. B. Awareness and knowledge 4. B. Expectation and willingness to buy 5. C. Comparison of potential buyers 6. B. A look into the future 7. C. Summary and outlook 27 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

28 Awareness and Consumer Acceptance of Electric Cars Potential for e-cars with a range of 150 km USA France China Awareness Appropriate usage pattern* Buying intention e-car** Expect higher cost price * At least 70% short range; max. 150 km a day; max. 4 routes >100 km/month ** Figures reflect probably and for sure responses Main users of a car; only survey participants familiar with electric engines Data given in percent 28 Continental AG Dec. 15, 2011

29 Awareness and Consumer Acceptance of Electric Cars Potential for e-cars with a range of 300 km USA France China Awareness Appropriate usage pattern* Intention to buy e-car** Expect higher cost price *max. 300 km a day ** Figures reflect probably and for sure responses Main users of a car; only survey participants familiar electric engines Data given in percent 29 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

30 Core themes of the study 1. Market sentiment 2. A. Passenger car usage patterns 3. B. Awareness and knowledge 4. B. Expectation and willingness to buy 5. C. Comparison of potential buyers 6. B. A look into the future 7. C. Summary and outlook 30 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

31 What Do City Planners and Transport Operators Say? Importance of (electric) cars + Berlin Decline in the use of cars Potential of electric bicycles and in delivery vehicles São Paulo Private transport is increasing Planners open to e-mobility Potential in e-buses and delivery vehicles Potential of electric vehicles - - Beijing, Delhi Further e-mobility not really possible or not of interest because electricity comes from coal-fired power stations Singapore Potential in short-range public transport Willingness to introduce new technologies without own developments Bangkok Los Angeles Moscow Rather skeptical Potential for e-drives in fleets of taxis, short-range public transport, delivery vehicles or electric bicycles Evaluation of the importance of cars + Interviews with experts Berlin, Hamburg, Paris, Moscow, Los Angeles, São Paulo, Delhi, Beijing, Bangkok 31 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

32 Expectations Towards Suitability for Daily Use of Electric Cars: Chinese are most optimistic What do you think: when will you be driving an electric car on a daily basis? China 50 USA 25 France at the earliest in 2021 Main users of a car; only survey participants familiar with electric engines and who would drive an electric car Data given in percent 32 Continental AG Dec. 15, 2011

33 Core themes of the study 1. D. Market sentiment 2. A. Passenger car usage patterns 3. B. Awareness and knowledge 4. B. Expectation and willingness to buy 5. C. Comparison of potential buyers 6. B. A look into the future 7. C. Summary and outlook 33 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

34 Main Results in a Telegram E-Mobility as an opportunity Technical innovation mandatory Customers with high expectations Open mindedness prevails over skepticism towards electric vehicles. End customers expect mid-size cars to be suitable for daily use. Even today, larger market potential exist. New mobility concepts Crucial for this is also the awareness of lots of consumers that mobility resources should be better used this is valid to a different extent worldwide. Authorities at the transport branch see it like this and expect innovative solutions for acute problems. It applies not only to the car, but also to the public transport and the bicycle and better networking. Especially young adults in megacities do not depend uniquely on their own cars but are open-minded towards car sharing and other means of transportation. 34 Dec. 15, 2011 Continental AG

35 Thank you very much for your attention! Klaus Sommer Hanover, December 15, 2011