Transport Sector Performance Indicators: Sri Lanka Existing Situation

Transcription

1 Transport Sector Performance Indicators: Sri Lanka Existing Situation Amal S. Kumarage Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Moratuwa Chairman, National Transport Commission 21 st April 05

2 Overview of Land Transport & the Economy GDP Rs 1,400 billion Value Addition to Economy Rs 178 billion (12%) Employment Direct 700,000 (11% of national) Government Capital Allocation Rs 300 bn Government Expenditure on Transport Sector Highways Rs 13.5 bn (4.5%) Transport Rs 6.5 bn (2%)

3 Sri Lanka Transport: The Demand Population 19 million Distribution 70% in rural areas Metro Areas Colombo 3 million Town Centres 50,000 to 300,000 GDP per capita US$ 980 Employment (Agricultural based 45%, industries 25%, services 30%)

4 Sri Lanka Transport: The Supply Transport Infrastructure Transport Services

5 Transport Infrastructure Highways Expressways -None National Highways -11,760 kms Provincial Highways -15,743 kms Rural Roads -68,843 kms Footpaths & Tracks estimated at 120,000 kms Railways 1,449 kms Navigable Inland Waterways less than 100 kms

6 Ancient 1 st Cent. BC 11 th Century 17 th Century Road Network based on connectivity of Anuradhapura to ports in the North-East and connection between the kingdoms and places of worship mostly in dry zone Coastal roads in the southwest after migration of people Dutch Canal System in southwest develops it further Year RDA Provincial Access Urban Access Rural Total 1815 Commencement of Road Building by British ,024 6,024 Modern ,034 12,070 19, ,447 14,916 2,791 66,054 94, ,760 15,743 5,200 77, ,503

7 Motor Vehicle Fleet Estimated Operational Vehicle Fleet by Province and Type Province Motor Cycles Three Wheelers Cars & Vans Lorries Buses Land Vehicles Other Total Western 192, ,004 53,634 15,351 11,981 N/A 450,164 Central 21,491 11,712 21,403 12,718 4,196 2,780 N/A 74,300 Southern 63,678 12,444 15,478 9,092 3,006 11,534 N/A 115,232 North East 41,952 3,183 2,542 1,107 6, ,019 North Western 82,932 5,752 18,276 12,135 3,037 12, ,437 North Central 25,114 1,581 4,457 3, , ,341 S gamuwa 25,242 6,922 9,961 7,350 2,996 3, ,992 Uva 12,307 1,457 4,389 4,147 1,267 3, ,753 Total 464, , ,276 31,874 57,213 1, ,238

8 Vehicle Ownership per 100 households (Central Bank, Consumer Finance Surveys) 1978/ / / /97 Bicycle Motor Cycle Motor Car/Van Bicycle 0 Motor Cycle 1978/ / / /97 Motor Car/Van

9 Modal Share of Land Transport Sector Road (NMT) Vehicle Estimated Operational Fleet Estimated Kilometres Operated (mn) Estimated Person Kms Carried (mn) Bicycle 2,000, ,100 Other N/a N/a N/a Estimated Ton-Kms Carried (mn) Motor 539,094 2, Cars 135,050 1, Roads Utility 186,717 2, (Motorised) Buses 24, Trucks 66,499 1, Land 76, Three 75,233 1,432 1,432 Sub Total Road 3,103,178 12,849 58, Rail 3,103 Total Road and Rail 63,964

10 National Modal Share Mode Vehicle Kms Passenger Kms Ton Kms Carried Operated (mn) Carried (mn) (mn) Bus 966 (08%) 45,407 (68%) Private Vehicles 7,861 (64%) 15,831 (24%) Railways 11 (00%) 3,600 (5%) 102 (02%) Three Wheelers 1,548 (13%) 1,161 (2%) Lorry/Land Veh. 1,813 (15%) 907 (1%) 4,532 (97%) Water Transport 3 (00%) 32 (01%) Total 12,202 (100%) 66,906 (100%) 4,666 (100%)

11 % S h a re Years Public Bus Private Railway Para Transit

12 Priorities in Land Transport Reduce Total Transport & Externality Cost for Economy. Improve Quality/Service Levels of Public Transport. Reduce Financial Burden of Public Transport on Treasury through Strategic Reform of SLR and Cluster Cos. Managing Road Space & Traffic Flow by Levying charges to recover actual cost of Road Use Reduce the burden from road accidents and environmental impacts

13 Description of Sub Sectors Buses Railways Three Wheelers Trucking Private Transport Rural Transport

14 Bus Transport In Sri Lanka Private Individual Operators (1907) Re-entry of Private Individual Operators (1978) Formation of Companies? Formation of Companies (1942) Nationalization (1958)

15 Impact of Bus Transport on Sri Lankan Society & Economy 50 billion passenger kms per year 65% of all travel 30 billion Rupees in economic value 3% of GDP 10 million trips per day 2 trips per household per day 80 % households use the bus at least 1 time per week Also 84,000 persons directly employed

16 What are the basic problems facing the industry? Inadequate fares Inadequate investment in buses? Weak regulation Lack of Enforcement Weak Market Structure Unmanageable number of operators Abandonment of professional practices poorly managed industry Although regulated fares, and the single bus ownership have been the most quoted reasons for this state of affairs, recent study and documentation reveals that a host of regulatory lapses are in fact the primary cause of this situation.

17 Performance Indicators- Buses Quality Load Factor, Journey Speeds, Directness, Availability during unprofitable times, routes. Reliability Efficiency: Bus Utilisation, Revenue/Cost per km. Fare Affordability to lower income deciles. Cost to Society: Net Subsidy Safety- crew standards, accidents, bus standards Convenience & Comfort- value additions. Niche Markets: Schools, Offices, Industries served Infrastructure: Terminals, Stops, Busways

18 Railway Transport Fully regulated since inception Problem areas Lack of commercial/passenger interest Pre-occupation with employee rights High financial losses Abortive attempts on unbundling or private investment/management

19 Performance Indicators- Trains Quality Load Factor, Journey Speeds. Efficiency: Track & Rolling Stock Utilization Fare Affordability to lower income deciles. Cost to Society: subsidies less externality benefits Safety- track & rolling stock standards, Convenience & Comfort- value additions. Niche Markets: Freight, Tourism Infrastructure: Land Utilisation, Station Development

20 Three Wheelers Popularity rising due to deterioration of public transport Primary reason being attractive as means of selfemployment Presently 142,000 vehicles, but transport 2% of share. Problem areas: Cartelisation Inefficiency

21 Performance Indicators- Three Wheelers Quantity & Efficiency: Vehicle Utilisation Fare Affordability to middle income deciles. Cost to Society: pollution and parking costs

22 Trucking Has always been fully deregulated Efficient in corporate settings In informal settings, poor productivity, high fares, externalities Trucking is subsidized by the Govt.

23 Performance Indicators- Trucks Efficiency: Vehicle Utilization Cost to shippers. Cost to Society: externalities due to pavement damage, congestion, pollution Safety- vehicle and crew standards, Infrastructure: Logistics Centres, Warehousing

24 Private Vehicles Estimated Operational Vehicle Fleet by Province and Type Province Motor Cycles Three Wheelers Cars & Vans Lorries Buses Land Vehicles Other Total Western 192, ,004 53,634 15,351 11,981 N/A 450,164 Central 21,491 11,712 21,403 12,718 4,196 2,780 N/A 74,300 Southern 63,678 12,444 15,478 9,092 3,006 11,534 N/A 115,232 North East 41,952 3,183 2,542 1,107 6, ,019 North Western 82,932 5,752 18,276 12,135 3,037 12, ,437 North Central 25,114 1,581 4,457 3, , ,341 S gamuwa 25,242 6,922 9,961 7,350 2,996 3, ,992 Uva 12,307 1,457 4,389 4,147 1,267 3, ,753 Total 464, , ,276 31,874 57,213 1, ,238

25 Vehicles/Traffic in Colombo City 140,000 vehicle enter the city daily 1,000,000 passengers enter the city daily 64% arrive by bus (takes 25% of road space) 10% arrive by railway 26% arrive by private transport (takes 65% of road space)

26 The Problems of Road Safety Costs lives, disables 4,000+, injures a further 12,000. Damage only accidents 38,848. Total accidents 57,618 Only 700 (4%) receive any compensation. Economic Cost of accidents Rs. 10 billion ++ Risk of death due to road accident has risen from 1 in 115 (1977) to 1 in 51 (2002)

27 Performance Indicators- Private Vehicles Efficiency: Network Speed, Vehicle Occupancy Cost to users as VOC. Cost to Society: externalities due to congestion, pollution and accidents Safety & Environment- vehicle and crew standards, Infrastructure: User Separation, Intersection Control

28 Performance Indicators Rural Transport Accessibility (to basic services, employment opportunities and markets) Ownership of vehicles Affordability of services

29 Performance Indicators- Overall Transport Efficiency: Network Speeds (rail, roads, bus) Cost to Government: Net Subsidies Resource Utilization: Energy Efficiency, Land Utilization, Affordability of different modes to different sectors of society Cost to Society: inputs plus externalities due to congestion, pollution and accidents Employment Generation Safety & Environment- minimum standards,

30 THANK YOU

31 Economic Cost of Transport 2003 Direct Operating Costs Railways Rs 4,700 mn Buses Rs 36,288 mn Three Wheelers Rs 13,230 mn Private Vehicles Rs 71,875 mn Goods Transport Rs 61,000 mn TOTAL Rs 178,393 mn Cost of Externalities Time Value > 30 km/hr Rs 77,500 mn Time Value <30km/hr Rs 16,250 mn Unpaid Accident Costs Rs 10,000 mn Environmental Rs 2,000 mn TOTAL Rs. 105,750 mn

32 Fuel Consumption-2003 Diesel 2,700 mn litres Rs. 91,000 mn Petrol 400 mn litres Rs. 12,000 mn Fuel Cost for railways - Rs 3,500 mn Fuel Cost for buses - Rs. 3,000 mn 10% of fuel for railways/buses but they carry 73% of passengers. Over the last few months all these costs have increased by around 60%.

33 Economic Direct Costs in Land Transport (2003) PASSENGER Vehicles Veh Kms Pax Kms Cost Rs. Cost per Pax Km Railways - - 4,258 6, Buses 25,000 1,296 49,112 36, Wheeler-Taxi 167,764 1,890 1,328 13, Private Vehs. 880,034 10,125 17,784 71, MC FREIGHT Vehicles Veh Kms Ton Kms Cost Rs. Railway Trucks/Vans 173,643 3, C/V

34 Government Expenditure 2003 Expenditure Roads National Roads Provincial Railways Buses TOTAL Rs.11,300 mn Rs. 2,151 mn Rs 3,500 mn Rs 3,000 mn Rs 20,000 mn Income Vehicle taxes etc. Rs 12,000 mn Import Taxes Rs 5,000 mn Taxes on Fuel Rs 5,000 mn Registration/Annual License Rs 2,000 mn TOTAL Rs 24,000 mn